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StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

im depressed lol posted:

What I'm saying is boys, we need some edible coal. Edit: this is a joke, i know a lot of stupid things have been said in this thread but this is a joke
they call it clean but really its processed with chemicals, thats why I only enjoy Organic Coal

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Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

VideoGameVet posted:

Sorry, only a masters ... got recruited by a software company out of graduate school.

Anyway, I don't even think batteries make sense on a large scale. What I do know is that the US Nuclear Industry has failed to deliver on its promises. Even with store, wind&solar are now the lowest cost solutions (as long as you don't hide expenses that taxpayers end up covering).

What's more relevant in my background is running companies. I can look at the history of nuclear projects and draw realistic conclusions.

The first step is to recognize 'monetary cost' is a relative, circumstantial measurement rather than an universal physical truth.

The second is to recognize that a process or set up that is theoretically cheaper on paper, might not be applicable in the real world once you factor in the physical constraints of implementation.

Then you combine these two, and realize that high nuclear power costs are largely due to a mix of expected litigation expenses and limited implementation scope for projects, and that these costs don't actually even matter because renewables alone can't handle baseload requirements, so you need nuclear anyway.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

VideoGameVet posted:

Sorry, only a masters ... got recruited by a software company out of graduate school.

Anyway, I don't even think batteries make sense on a large scale. What I do know is that the US Nuclear Industry has failed to deliver on its promises. Even with store, wind&solar are now the lowest cost solutions (as long as you don't hide expenses that taxpayers end up covering).

What's more relevant in my background is running companies. I can look at the history of nuclear projects and draw realistic conclusions.

Ah, I see, this is the problem of an old man seeing things from the perspective he is comfortable from. The problem of global warming is fundamentally a physics/engineering problem, not a business problem. Businesses have the unspoken goal of externalize ALL COSTS, while nuclear (rightfully) is regulated away from doing that, and then some (see earlier comment about the NRC, they really DO suck).

Until grid penetration of intermittent power reaches ~30%, renewable power won't be too big of a stablity problem (as long as the people running the grid are allowed to manage your washer/dryer/other big electricity hogs), but after that, storage becomes a massive, massive problem.
Kroposki is a pretty cool dude, and while I'd disagree with some of his modeling, he's got a lot to talk about.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68349.pdf should be generally readable.


Like I said before, 25-50% has pretty much gotta be nuclear, maybe more for CCS since renewable power isn't really good for thermal power.

also, check out this: http://calculators.energy.utexas.edu/lcoe_map/#/county/tech and change the nuclear cost from 8000/kW (lol) to the poster child of "Stupid nuclear power failures" Olkiluto-3, which is about 5500/kW. Solar and wind are good, but they don't work everywhere.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004

Conspiratiorist posted:

The first step is to recognize 'monetary cost' is a relative, circumstantial measurement rather than an universal physical truth.

I think a lot of people are ideologically incapable of recognizing this. It and the "million years of danger" bogeymen are some of the more frequent complaints i see.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

The Dipshit posted:

Ah, I see, this is the problem of an old man seeing things from the perspective he is comfortable from. The problem of global warming is fundamentally a physics/engineering problem, not a business problem. Businesses have the unspoken goal of externalize ALL COSTS, while nuclear (rightfully) is regulated away from doing that, and then some (see earlier comment about the NRC, they really DO suck).

Until grid penetration of intermittent power reaches ~30%, renewable power won't be too big of a stablity problem (as long as the people running the grid are allowed to manage your washer/dryer/other big electricity hogs), but after that, storage becomes a massive, massive problem.
Kroposki is a pretty cool dude, and while I'd disagree with some of his modeling, he's got a lot to talk about.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68349.pdf should be generally readable.


Like I said before, 25-50% has pretty much gotta be nuclear, maybe more for CCS since renewable power isn't really good for thermal power.

also, check out this: http://calculators.energy.utexas.edu/lcoe_map/#/county/tech and change the nuclear cost from 8000/kW (lol) to the poster child of "Stupid nuclear power failures" Olkiluto-3, which is about 5500/kW. Solar and wind are good, but they don't work everywhere.

Most of my skepticism is driven by what has happened with projects in the USA.

Maybe we should have let Rickover run the civilian programs too.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

VideoGameVet posted:

Most of my skepticism is driven by what has happened with projects in the USA.

Maybe we should have let Rickover run the civilian programs too.

Jimmy Carter killed the nuclear power industry after he split the AEC into the DOE (Where we mostly work on nuclear warheads omnicide and general energy R&D) and the NRC which took over civilian nuclear power, which was promptly turned into the "don't approve anything, drag permitting process out" game, and I presume that was from regulatory capture by competing industries such as the traditional fossil fuel power generation people who never were told to wipe their asses, much less take responsibility for their radioactive emissions. Like take a look at cost overruns from 1976 onward for nuclear power and you'll see a stark before/after line for it, it's pretty nuts.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

The Dipshit posted:

Jimmy Carter killed the nuclear power industry after he split the AEC into the DOE (Where we mostly work on nuclear warheads omnicide and general energy R&D) and the NRC which took over civilian nuclear power, which was promptly turned into the "don't approve anything, drag permitting process out" game, and I presume that was from regulatory capture by competing industries such as the traditional fossil fuel power generation people who never were told to wipe their asses, much less take responsibility for their radioactive emissions. Like take a look at cost overruns from 1976 onward for nuclear power and you'll see a stark before/after line for it, it's pretty nuts.

Ironic considering what Carter did in the Navy.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless
Good man, lovely president. I've assumed it was him believing people would all act in good faith in the aggregate and not have people jam up the NRC. But so it goes.

Senor P.
Mar 27, 2006
I MUST TELL YOU HOW PEOPLE CARE ABOUT STUFF I DONT AND BE A COMPLETE CUNT ABOUT IT
Specifically how was the AEC "better" than the NRC?

A lot of the shenanigans from the 40s, 50s, and 60s were what led the dissolution of the AEC.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Senor P. posted:

Specifically how was the AEC "better" than the NRC?

A lot of the shenanigans from the 40s, 50s, and 60s were what led the dissolution of the AEC.

Frankly, most of the shady poo poo the AEC did was in service to the weapons program, and not the nuclear power for the general public aspect. And of course, that aspect got turned into a cabinet level agency. :v:

Dupont straight up murdered a few hundred to a few thousand people with cancer with all the poo poo done to make 5 nuclear reactors in 3 years at SRS. Of note, they made those reactors for ~ 7 billion in today's dollars. Cutting corners like a motherfucker with that one, but of course it was "to defeat the communists" kind of bullshit.

The Hanford site garbage was more forgivable in the lack of forethought IMO, since it was the screaming bleeding edge of science turned into an engineering project when it was built.

The Dipshit fucked around with this message at 13:49 on Oct 25, 2018

Plumps
Apr 21, 2010
Here's a little nugget from 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/09/fukushima-nuclear-cleanup-falters-six-years-after-tsunami - Fukushima cleanup cost estimate has doubled again to $198 billion, to take '30-40 years'. Reading the article it seems that these estimates are likely to increase in the future.

What a rip off. $198 billion and no giant robots. Just puny radiation prone ones.

I'm not saying nuclear is bad, but I could think of a few better things to spend that amount of money on.

Will be interesting to see where the sea level rise vs cleanup race is in a few decades.

qkkl
Jul 1, 2013

by FactsAreUseless

Plumps posted:

Here's a little nugget from 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/09/fukushima-nuclear-cleanup-falters-six-years-after-tsunami - Fukushima cleanup cost estimate has doubled again to $198 billion, to take '30-40 years'. Reading the article it seems that these estimates are likely to increase in the future.

What a rip off. $198 billion and no giant robots. Just puny radiation prone ones.

I'm not saying nuclear is bad, but I could think of a few better things to spend that amount of money on.

Will be interesting to see where the sea level rise vs cleanup race is in a few decades.

It's going to cost $198 billion dollars precisely because they need giant robots to remotely extract the nuclear waste.

e: I was thinking that you meant giant robots would materialize out of the reactors Transformers-style.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Mayor Dave posted:



Taken 100 years apart

Cross quoting from the C-SPAM thread because the visual really struck me.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Plumps posted:

Here's a little nugget from 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/09/fukushima-nuclear-cleanup-falters-six-years-after-tsunami - Fukushima cleanup cost estimate has doubled again to $198 billion, to take '30-40 years'. Reading the article it seems that these estimates are likely to increase in the future.

What a rip off. $198 billion and no giant robots. Just puny radiation prone ones.

I'm not saying nuclear is bad, but I could think of a few better things to spend that amount of money on.

Will be interesting to see where the sea level rise vs cleanup race is in a few decades.

Yup, that's ugly. Still no other option. I have this sneaking suspicion that Tepco realized the kind of grift that the US DOD companies are pulling and realized this is their golden opportunity.

Also, give it a few years, I think we'll have the last part of the (tritium) contaminated wastewater dealt with. Some neat new technologies are coming down the pipe to remove tritium from water that beat the poo poo out of the old methods.

The Dipshit fucked around with this message at 14:14 on Oct 26, 2018

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
I didn't see this linked here during the summer. Earlier in the year, respected sustainability researcher Jem Bendall published his paper Deep Adaptation: Inevitable Near Term Societal Collapse

In which he aggregates most recent climate change observations and makes the compelling case that we are well beyond utterly hosed without recourse.

It's good reading, thoroughly recommended if you want to go into the weekend with all remaining hope wrung out of you.

Shifty Nipples
Apr 8, 2007

Rime posted:

I didn't see this linked here during the summer. Earlier in the year, respected sustainability researcher Jem Bendall published his paper Deep Adaptation: Inevitable Near Term Societal Collapse

In which he aggregates most recent climate change observations and makes the compelling case that we are well beyond utterly hosed without recourse.

It's good reading, thoroughly recommended if you want to go into the weekend with all remaining hope wrung out of you.

Dude I haven't felt hope in like twenty years.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Rime posted:

I didn't see this linked here during the summer. Earlier in the year, respected sustainability researcher Jem Bendall published his paper Deep Adaptation: Inevitable Near Term Societal Collapse

In which he aggregates most recent climate change observations and makes the compelling case that we are well beyond utterly hosed without recourse.

It's good reading, thoroughly recommended if you want to go into the weekend with all remaining hope wrung out of you.

this paper posted:

The West’s response to environmental issues has been restricted by the dominance of
neoliberal economics since the 1970s. That led to hyper-individualist, market fundamentalist,
incremental and atomistic approaches. By hyper-individualist, I mean a focus on individual
action as consumers, switching light bulbs or buying sustainable furniture, rather than
promoting political action as engaged citizens. By market fundamentalist, I mean a focus on
market mechanisms like the complex, costly and largely useless carbon cap and trade systems,
rather than exploring what more government intervention could achieve. By incremental, I
mean a focus on celebrating small steps forward such as a company publishing a sustainability
report, rather than strategies designed for a speed and scale of change suggested by the
science.

Capitalism Delenda est.

But yeah, catastrophe would probably imply a population crunch of 2/3rds to 3/4ths of us dying and the rest picking up the pieces very slowly. Mostly in the northern latitudes, since the southern continents are largely more in the tropics. Seems like a reasonably likely outcome, much to my regret.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
Why the northern latitudes?

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Conspiratiorist posted:

Why the northern latitudes?


https://mymodernmet.com/parag-khanna-global-warming-map/

Going off the possibility that we get our butts into gear after 2050 or so, guaranteeing at least 2C and maybe getting another 1C in the transition itself from the new infrastructure and all that concrete, that'd put us somewhat close to a thing like this. Bear in mind, this part isn't my specialty though, so throw in that caveat.

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

Plumps posted:


I'm not saying nuclear is bad, but I could think of a few better things to spend that amount of money on.


Thats a dumb way at looking at things.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005
DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH > Climate Change: Post up your Phd. dissertation, coward.

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

VideoGameVet posted:

Sorry, only a masters ... got recruited by a software company out of graduate school.

Anyway, I don't even think batteries make sense on a large scale. What I do know is that the US Nuclear Industry has failed to deliver on its promises. Even with store, wind&solar are now the lowest cost solutions (as long as you don't hide expenses that taxpayers end up covering).

What's more relevant in my background is running companies. I can look at the history of nuclear projects and draw realistic conclusions.

lol

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Sundae posted:

DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH > Climate Change: Post up your Phd. dissertation, coward.

God loving damnit.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord
Here is the German cat at pee pees cat Cafe as demanded.



I can post a picture confirming I petted it in a few days when I get to a computer and can hook up my camera.

(Berlin is a shockingly cat free City! In two days I haven't seen any naturally. )

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

The Dipshit posted:

Ah, I see, this is the problem of an old man seeing things from the perspective he is comfortable from. The problem of global warming is fundamentally a physics/engineering problem, not a business problem. Businesses have the unspoken goal of externalize ALL COSTS, while nuclear (rightfully) is regulated away from doing that, and then some (see earlier comment about the NRC, they really DO suck).

Until grid penetration of intermittent power reaches ~30%, renewable power won't be too big of a stablity problem (as long as the people running the grid are allowed to manage your washer/dryer/other big electricity hogs), but after that, storage becomes a massive, massive problem.
Kroposki is a pretty cool dude, and while I'd disagree with some of his modeling, he's got a lot to talk about.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68349.pdf should be generally readable.


Like I said before, 25-50% has pretty much gotta be nuclear, maybe more for CCS since renewable power isn't really good for thermal power.

also, check out this: http://calculators.energy.utexas.edu/lcoe_map/#/county/tech and change the nuclear cost from 8000/kW (lol) to the poster child of "Stupid nuclear power failures" Olkiluto-3, which is about 5500/kW. Solar and wind are good, but they don't work everywhere.

Multiple NREL studies show that the US grid can handle 70-90% renewables (and not including big hydro) with only historic levels of grid investment. The idea that the grid can’t handle high renewable penetration is outdated.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Trabisnikof posted:

Multiple NREL studies show that the US grid can handle 70-90% renewables (and not including big hydro) with only historic levels of grid investment. The idea that the grid can’t handle high renewable penetration is outdated.

If that's possible without massive storage, then I'm behind the times. Link 'em.


EDIT:
If it's one that posits room temperature superconductors, I'm going to laugh at you.

The Dipshit fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Oct 26, 2018

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Can you provide cost&time estimates for nuclear vs solar and wind?

Please have this on my desk by end of work on Monday.

Thank you.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Here is the German cat at pee pees cat Cafe as demanded.



I can post a picture confirming I petted it in a few days when I get to a computer and can hook up my camera.

(Berlin is a shockingly cat free City! In two days I haven't seen any naturally. )

Having never been to a cat cafe but speaking as a person that has had lots of cats throughout his life: how much did it smell like cat piss in there?

Also I have a friend that lives in Germany and apparently there are very few stray cats and dogs because Germans are very proactive with animal welfare/shelters. According to her anyway.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

The Dipshit posted:

https://mymodernmet.com/parag-khanna-global-warming-map/

Going off the possibility that we get our butts into gear after 2050 or so, guaranteeing at least 2C and maybe getting another 1C in the transition itself from the new infrastructure and all that concrete, that'd put us somewhat close to a thing like this. Bear in mind, this part isn't my specialty though, so throw in that caveat.

Oh you meant, the northern latitudes picking up the pieces?

Then yes, the tropical regions are largely going to be uninhabitable past mid-century, especially if the thermohaline circulation shuts down.

Lampsacus
Oct 21, 2008

The Dipshit posted:

https://mymodernmet.com/parag-khanna-global-warming-map/

Going off the possibility that we get our butts into gear after 2050 or so, guaranteeing at least 2C and maybe getting another 1C in the transition itself from the new infrastructure and all that concrete, that'd put us somewhat close to a thing like this. Bear in mind, this part isn't my specialty though, so throw in that caveat.
The map is, like the bro startup page, saying that we'll have endless power/farm land through Northern Africa. Actually it goes even further than the bros and says we'll have a band of it right across America too! I mean.
Here's the thing. If the world was actually ending in the next forty years, you can prepare. Even if it's just going to get maimed and everything is gonna hurt super bad. You can prepare. Here is what you do:
1. FYGM, maximize your personal resources, $$, property and social connections.
2. Buy land in NZ or Scandinavia or Canada.
3. Build a bunker on your land. Keep it secret, keep it safe.
4. Buy a bookdepository.com copy of World War Z (2006) by Max Brooks.
5. Read it incessantly, tell all your friends its the closest we've got to what's about to happen. Especially the Great Panic and the masses not realizing what's about to hit them. Do not use the term 'sheeple'.
6. Go live in your bunker with your copy of World War Z. Also buy the audiobook, its got some good voice actors.
7. Post on the RaptureReady message boards.
8. ???
9. Proliferate! (your doomsday message on a lovely youtube channel with 14 subscribers).
..
But seriously, I'm of a mind that this is something terrible and soon. However, our collective minds just can't comprehend it. Its hard not to be printing out that Deep Adaption: A Map for Navigating Climate Change doomsday paper at work and not feel like a crazy person. I struggle to conceptualize climate breakdown on a personal psychology level. How much do I incorporate it into my weighing up of the world? Do I mention it at parties?

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
Ten years of my life trying to warn people has left me understanding that you will only lose friends and alienate people by doing so. gently caress em, there's no pleasure in being "right" in this argument.

I suggest spending a lot of time in nature dropping acid, at least that's how I've been coping.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Lampsacus posted:

The map is, like the bro startup page, saying that we'll have endless power/farm land through Northern Africa. Actually it goes even further than the bros and says we'll have a band of it right across America too! I mean.
Here's the thing. If the world was actually ending in the next forty years, you can prepare. Even if it's just going to get maimed and everything is gonna hurt super bad. You can prepare. Here is what you do:
1. FYGM, maximize your personal resources, $$, property and social connections.
2. Buy land in NZ or Scandinavia or Canada.
3. Build a bunker on your land. Keep it secret, keep it safe.
4. Buy a bookdepository.com copy of World War Z (2006) by Max Brooks.
5. Read it incessantly, tell all your friends its the closest we've got to what's about to happen. Especially the Great Panic and the masses not realizing what's about to hit them. Do not use the term 'sheeple'.
6. Go live in your bunker with your copy of World War Z. Also buy the audiobook, its got some good voice actors.
7. Post on the RaptureReady message boards.
8. ???
9. Proliferate! (your doomsday message on a lovely youtube channel with 14 subscribers).
..
But seriously, I'm of a mind that this is something terrible and soon. However, our collective minds just can't comprehend it. Its hard not to be printing out that Deep Adaption: A Map for Navigating Climate Change doomsday paper at work and not feel like a crazy person. I struggle to conceptualize climate breakdown on a personal psychology level. How much do I incorporate it into my weighing up of the world? Do I mention it at parties?

Praise Molai, plant trees, bike everywhere and try to live a life where you'd already be using a minimum of fossil fuels. It won't stop things, but you'll get more a feel of what life will be like (frankly probably not wonderful in material terms, but still OK). Do what you can, encourage the like minded, it's all anybody can ask. If you find yourself with terminal cancer, consider options of exiting this world that the mods would ban people over. :v:

We're going to have a low energy per capita future for the second half of our lives, even if we collective get our heads out of our butts and end capitalism. It'll be sucky, probably for a few centuries as we get out of the hole we're in with what we have available. It's going to probably be much, much worse for the developing world, however.

I'm not going to blame Rime for checking out, as that's totally an understandable reaction, but that's not the path I'd take.

Trainee PornStar
Jul 20, 2006

I'm just an inbetweener

Rime posted:

I suggest spending a lot of time in nature dropping acid, at least that's how I've been coping.

I'm drinking beer & smoking weed to cope... though to be fair I'd be drinking beer & smoking weed to celebrate if the world was going well.

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer
Shut the gently caress up Rime.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

DrNutt posted:

Having never been to a cat cafe but speaking as a person that has had lots of cats throughout his life: how much did it smell like cat piss in there?

Also I have a friend that lives in Germany and apparently there are very few stray cats and dogs because Germans are very proactive with animal welfare/shelters. According to her anyway.

Pee pees only had two cats total. So it's very low cat smell. Ironically.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Pee pees only had two cats total. So it's very low cat smell. Ironically.

Two cats? Sounds like they need to get Kiryu Kazama to come to Germany.

Epitope
Nov 27, 2006

Grimey Drawer
People have been fighting capitalism for a lot longer than global warming's been a threat. But cheer up, maybe with nature's help Capital can finally be taken down.

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
fighting or bitching

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Rime posted:

Ten years of my life trying to warn people has left me understanding that you will only lose friends and alienate people by doing so. gently caress em, there's no pleasure in being "right" in this argument.

I suggest spending a lot of time in nature dropping acid, at least that's how I've been coping.

Dropping acid loving rules, I wholeheartedly endorse that plan.

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Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Epitope posted:

People have been fighting capitalism for a lot longer than global warming's been a threat. But cheer up, maybe with nature's help Capital can finally be taken down.

15 of the 20 largest fossil fuel companies are already nationalized.

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