joepinetree posted:

I don't think Biden will win the primary, or even come that close. He may lead in the polls, but his numbers are by far the worst of any former vice president running for a nomination. Getting mid 30s as the former vice president of a pretty popular president, without having ever faced a tough election at the top of the ticket is pretty bad. He hasn't faced any substantial attack ads or scrutiny. People like to compare his numbers to Bernie's, but Bernie has been involved in a pretty bloody primary and re-litigation of said primary for the better part of 3 years. And everyone else doesn't have the same name recognition.

QuoProQuid posted:

it’s possible Biden’s numbers will drop when the primary season starts but, right now, there’s no evidence to suggest that. the idea that he’ll just implode when scrutinized (ignoring that he has been in the public eye for decades) to clear the way for Bernie seems like a lot of wishful thinking

QuoProQuid posted:

30% is pretty good when there are a billion candidates running and the closest alternative isn’t even polling at half that

it’s possible Biden’s numbers will drop when the primary season starts but, right now, there’s no evidence to suggest that. the idea that he’ll just implode when scrutinized (ignoring that he has been in the public eye for decades) to clear the way for Bernie seems like a lot of wishful thinking

DynamicSloth posted:

Gillum is a much better fantasy vp.

QuoProQuid posted:

30% is pretty good when there are a billion candidates running and the closest alternative isn’t even polling at half that

it’s possible Biden’s numbers will drop when the primary season starts but, right now, there’s no evidence to suggest that. the idea that he’ll just implode when scrutinized (ignoring that he has been in the public eye for decades) to clear the way for Bernie seems like a lot of wishful thinking

Frightening Knight posted:

The moment Biden announces he's running people are going to start passing around collages of him inappropriately touching women a quarter of his age where they look clearly uncomfortable and he's going to crash and burn.

The Kingfish posted:

So is she going to run?

not joseph stalin posted:

Are there any other Dems who could fill the Beto shaped hole in my heart?

Paracaidas posted:

Still no.

For a segment of the population, Bernie "captured the moment" in 2016. Whether he can broaden that in 2020 is one of the fundamental questions of the race. Past that, it's about what you're looking for: Beto, policywise, is similar to most of those seriously considering runs in 2020. Duckworth may hit for you the goofy/earnest/sorta cool personality trifecta that Beto seems to for many, Booker's tenure as mayor suggests he and much of the MSM will try to project the same for him. Warren has caught fire in the past, and Kamala (still have a profile coming, I promise) has risen to somewhat of a face of #metoo politics given her role in the Kavanaugh questioning.

Rent-A-Cop posted:

As a Floridian, gently caress Gillum if he pulls a Palin.

Trabisnikof posted:

I think there is still time and space for someone who isn’t a governor or senator to run and win the nomination. It would require a massive grassroots campaign but there is still more than enough time to pull that off.

While the superdonor networks might all get tied down within a month or two that’s not required to win and a candidate not associated with 1. the moribund senate or 2. state law enforcement would have real pluses from an enthusiasm perspective.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

this

Rent-A-Cop posted:

Seriously. There's fuckin' work to do in this state and even two terms of a not-awful Governor isn't enough time. If Gillum gets elected and then bails we gon' get wrecked for a decade.

not joseph stalin posted:

Candidates win when they capture the moment. I believe that the last minute swing voters who are basically mouth breathing all the way to the polls vote based on whoever the election was "about." 2000/2004 was about Bush, the 2008 and 2012 elections were about Obama, and the 2016 was about trump. Lots of (rightfully) negative coverage of the Rs in the lead up to these elections, but 2004 was a referendum on Bush and his war and his policies on gays, so he won.

Dems need a candidate who can capture the current moment and who isn't just a boring alternative to Trump. Someone beloved. I know Beto said he wouldn't run if he won the Senate, but it looks likely Cruz will win. That sucks; as a former Texan I'd be proud to vote for him. The only small silver lining is that it leaves him open for A 2020 run.

Are there any other Dems who could fill the Beto shaped hole in my heart?

Feldegast42 posted:

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Look, Florida is gonna wash away in a few short months anyway

If the nation needs him he's better allocated elsewhere

Rent-A-Cop posted:

When the floods come our manatee cavalry will decimate the unprepared Northern hordes. Just you wait Yankee scum.

Seriously though we are one of the better prepared states for the lots more water future. Which is kind of sad considering how historically poo poo our state governments are.

exploded mummy posted:

your manatees will freeze to death if they try to head up past the Mason dixon line

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Yeah, plus Biden's got Obama Nostalgia wrapped around him like an aura.

He'll play off the gropey photos as "I'm a hugger" or some poo poo and unless something specific comes out -- like an actual victim or five willing to make public allegations -- that by itself won't sink him.

quote:

In total popular vote he placed 7th behind eventual nominee Massachusetts senator John Kerry, future vice presidential nominee, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Governor of Vermont Howard Dean, Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich, retired General Wesley Clark and Reverend Al Sharpton.

Willa Rogers posted:

Well, there's also those pesky Anita Hill hearings that he's still getting ragged over, plus the BK reform bill with the amendments making student debt and medical debt non-dischargeable.

Keep in mind that at the beginning of 2003, Joe Lieberman was leading the pack much as Biden is today (and at a later point in the election run-up). Yet when all was said and done:


Now, he didn't have a vice presidency under Gore deemed successful, as Biden had under Obama, but that Kooch & Sharpton both managed to beat Lieberman in total popular vote shows how off those early mainly-name-recognition rankings can be.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Oh sure. Please understand I am not saying Biden is *going* to win nor am I claiming that he is any better a candidate than, say, Lieberman. Still, name recognition is a powerful force and I don't think he should be discounted out of hand. He's still the whitest, malest, most establishment candidate on the Democratic side.

Frightening Knight posted:

That's the Ohio guy, right? He said he wants to run for President.

Office Pig posted:

He wants to run for president because he thinks he has the 'yoga mom vote' locked down, that is his express rationale.

Office Pig posted:

He wants to run for president because he thinks he has the 'yoga mom vote' locked down, that is his express rationale.

Feldegast42 posted:

GreyjoyBastard posted:

not joseph stalin posted:

Are there any other Dems who could fill the Beto shaped hole in my heart?

not joseph stalin posted:

That's a fair point. I do think there are some dissimilarities between both winning a Dem primary and winning in a general. And also winning in 2016 vs winning post trump. And I think most people would agree that, by speaking the way he did, Bernie really did outperform expectations. I suppose in Beto, I feel a bit of Obama 2004 DNC address.

Ytlaya posted:

I was going to make some comment about how I could understand someone being excited about Beto in the same way I was excited about Obama as a 21 year old who hadn't really learned to properly evaluate politicians yet, but apparently you have actually recognized the huge similarities and still like him?

Like, the whole lesson from Obama should have been that having a likable personality does not translate to having good politics.

edit: I almost feel like Beto appeals to certain liberals in the same way Bush and his (fake) accent and cowboy hat appealed to conservatives. Like, the general image Beto portrays is the equivalent of the "guy you'd like to have a beer with" for conservatives.

Frightening Knight posted:

https://twitter.com/paulheintz/stat...er%3D854%23pti7

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cZ7ndjhhps

Ytlaya posted:

I was going to make some comment about how I could understand someone being excited about Beto in the same way I was excited about Obama as a 21 year old who hadn't really learned to properly evaluate politicians yet, but apparently you have actually recognized the huge similarities and still like him?

Like, the whole lesson from Obama should have been that having a likable personality does not translate to having good politics.

edit: I almost feel like Beto appeals to certain liberals in the same way Bush and his (fake) accent and cowboy hat appealed to conservatives. Like, the general image Beto portrays is the equivalent of the "guy you'd like to have a beer with" for conservatives.

tsa posted:

Obama was great and his politics were fine, you just happen to be the left wing equivalent of a tea partier in 09.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Charisma does actually matter in candidates and Beto has it. It's *not* the only thing that matters.

InnercityGriot posted:

Don't take this bait!!!!