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Sab0921 posted:So the O'keefe person came in and said can we use a few campaign bucks to buy some food for starving people and they said yes and that's the scandal because the starving people were brown? you must not watch foxnews 24/7
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Nov 2, 2018 02:56
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My little brother text me today saying that our late 50s, always voted Republican dad voted for Beto today. My brother also got a mid 60s regular at his bar, that had never voted in his life, to cast one for Beto. Proud of him 
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Nov 2, 2018 03:35
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https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1058173446318948352
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Nov 2, 2018 03:36
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Zochness posted:My little brother text me today saying that our late 50s, always voted Republican dad voted for Beto today. My brother also got a mid 60s regular at his bar, that had never voted in his life, to cast one for Beto. Proud of him Proud of you both
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Nov 2, 2018 03:44
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Jesus
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Nov 2, 2018 03:45
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This is well beyond the rosiest of turnout models. Especially since under 30 is +25-30+ Democratic.
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Nov 2, 2018 03:48
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Hahaha, holy poo poo, I know the chick in the anime costume. True story: she dresses like that every day, for every occasion.
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Nov 2, 2018 03:48
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Census estimates 12% of Texas is over 65. Wonder what the under 30 percentage looks like
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Nov 2, 2018 04:09
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Uh...Holy poo poo! Hope is a lie! Hope is a lie! Do not get your hopes up! Hope is a lie! Don't jinx it! Hope is a lie!
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Nov 2, 2018 04:17
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turner seems like hes having a good time, cant fault that
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Nov 2, 2018 04:17
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Alkydere posted:Uh...Holy poo poo!  i always vote at the blackest voting place in my town and there was a line there at 4pm on a Tuesday not all that long a line, to be sure, but a line nonetheless
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Nov 2, 2018 04:23
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Sir Tonk posted:turner seems like hes having a good time, cant fault that yeah I know nothing about the guy but hi5 electing an anime mayor, houston Alkydere posted:Uh...Holy poo poo! Hope is the mind killer. e: ngl despite my constant "there will be no blue wave" that I've been posting forever, I'd happy if the dems just wiped out the "We need to sic the army on the migrant caravan" crew e2: trump had a presser today and said the army would fire on the migrants, if you haven't heard today's hellworld news Marxalot fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 04:26
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wut's that compare to 2016 though? I mean presidential level turnout gives you R+9 so you can't just cmpare this to 2014, you need to compare this to '16 at least
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Nov 2, 2018 04:26
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Typo posted:wut's that compare to 2016 though? I feel like all the people comparing to 2014 are just doing so out of wishful thinking. I get the logic, and comparing midterms to midterms makes sense on it's face. But it just seems like people are doing it because it's the only way to have any hope. Because if the republican base really is as riled up as they were, and the dem turnout really is depressed as it was in 2016 then we're just looking at another loving GOP blowout.
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Nov 2, 2018 04:35
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Either way I can't wait to hear my family talk about the god drat loving caravan over the holidays. Gonna be great~
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Nov 2, 2018 04:35
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Marxalot posted:Either way I can't wait to hear my family talk about the god drat loving caravan over the holidays. Gonna be great~ Gonna be awkward when all those caravan people are outside your windows looking at your delicious holiday dinner. 
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Nov 2, 2018 04:41
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Marxalot posted:I feel like all the people comparing to 2014 are just doing so out of wishful thinking. I get the logic, and comparing midterms to midterms makes sense on it's face. But it just seems like people are doing it because it's the only way to have any hope. Because if the republican base really is as riled up as they were, and the dem turnout really is depressed as it was in 2016 then we're just looking at another loving GOP blowout. dem turnout isn't depressed for a midterm, it's just that even presidential level turnouts doesn't get you do D > 0 Texas at the moment is still pretty red so defaults to incumbent GOP win so you better hope BETO is really, really loving special Typo fucked around with this message at 04:49 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 04:47
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the caravan doesn't go far enough imo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwC416Dv_54
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Nov 2, 2018 04:49
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the last couple of polls is pretty close though cook now rates both texas and NJ as tossups (though 538 and every other predictions website has texas/nj likely red/blue) so lol if beto wins but is offset by menendez is nj
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Nov 2, 2018 04:58
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Typo posted:the last couple of polls is pretty close though
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Nov 2, 2018 05:13
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Typo posted:the last couple of polls is pretty close though Cook sure seems to be pulling poo poo out of thin air based on gut feelings. Has there been a poll within 5 in NJ ever? But they still say it's a tossup?
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Nov 2, 2018 06:11
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Typo posted:the last couple of polls is pretty close though These races aren't 100% in lock step, but they're not independent either. If the blue wave crests high enough to put Beto over the top there's no way Menedez is going to lose.
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Nov 2, 2018 06:47
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Larry Sabato or bust
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Nov 2, 2018 07:21
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Typo posted:the last couple of polls is pretty close though While it would suck to lose a senate seat in loving NJ of all places, jettisoning menendez will ultimately be a good thing.
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Nov 2, 2018 07:36
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All hope abandon ye who enter here: Beto loses by a larger margin than expected, Republicans maintain control of all major branches, we get HD footage of the military mowing down migrants after mistaking a soccer ball for an IED
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Nov 2, 2018 13:07
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Democratic Pirate posted:All hope abandon ye who enter here: Beto loses by a larger margin than expected, Republicans maintain control of all major branches, we get HD footage of the military mowing down migrants after mistaking a soccer ball for an IED I did just have two friends vote Beto in their first midterms ever, so I needed this post.
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Nov 2, 2018 13:33
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PostNouveau posted:Cook sure seems to be pulling poo poo out of thin air based on gut feelings. Has there been a poll within 5 in NJ ever? But they still say it's a tossup? Cook's model includes a bunch of non-poll stuff
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Nov 2, 2018 14:37
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zoux posted:Cook's model includes a bunch of non-poll stuff I know in theory the fact that Menedez is a huge crook is a relevant data point, but it doesn't seem to have impacted his race enough to put the seat in jeopardy.
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Nov 2, 2018 14:50
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I’m pretty sure one of the raters just says that anything polling within 5 points is a tossup.
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Nov 2, 2018 15:11
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Badger of Basra posted:I’m pretty sure one of the raters just says that anything polling within 5 points is a tossup. I mean, that's fine, that might be a valid way to go. The last 5 polls of the race are Menedez +8, +5.3, +5, +7 and +10.7 though.
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Nov 2, 2018 15:16
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Well we'll know in a couple of days. Dunno if it'll matter for poo poo but I voted a straight D slate but left Governor empty. Maybe if enough people do that the Texas Democratic party will learn tha- ahahahhahahah zoux fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 15:18
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Democratic Pirate posted:All hope abandon ye who enter here: Beto loses by a larger margin than expected, Republicans maintain control of all major branches, we get HD footage of the military mowing down migrants after mistaking a soccer ball for an IED I'm betting on 12-15% advantage for Cruz when the smoke clears. I've been down this road before.
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Nov 2, 2018 16:05
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zoux posted:straight D slate but left Governor empty as tempting as this was, and as meaningless as it was to not do this I still voted for Lupe just because holy poo poo gently caress Greg Abbott, basically anything to make him look less appealing would be A-OK in my book
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Nov 2, 2018 16:09
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Please fill it in for Lupe. It determines the entire election process for the next 4 years. Copy/paste from the local Democratic Party e-mail:quote:There will be 94 polling locations on 11/6/18. 86 locations are controlled by a Republican Judge who hires between 4 and 6 Republican clerks. We will have a Democratic Alternate Judge at each location in a sea of Republicans. We get to do the same thing at our 8 polling locations (5 in Denton, 1 in Lewisville and 2 in Dallas). So if you want a non-Republican person controlling the place you vote, put in a ballot for Lupe. It matters!
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Nov 2, 2018 16:14
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https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1058210496967532544 Interesting here is that pretty much every LV screen includes past voting history. If this surge is indeed happening in other states, and happens on election day, then that's a lot of voters excluded by LV polls. Kunabomber posted:Please fill it in for Lupe. It determines the entire election process for the next 4 years. Copy/paste from the local Democratic Party e-mail: I don't give a poo poo I'm done with strategic voting for bad candidates or lesser evils
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Nov 2, 2018 16:17
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turnip kid posted:I'm betting on 12-15% advantage for Cruz when the smoke clears. I've been down this road before. Beto wins by 10, Lupe Valdez rides into the governorship on his coattails, Ken Paxton is dragged out of office screaming by Texas Rangers on those securities fraud charges.
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Nov 2, 2018 16:18
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lol https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1058363039047733249
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Nov 2, 2018 16:23
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Congressman O'Rourke, did your campaign illegally *checks pad* send money to honduras to start a migrant caravan to march thousands of miles to arrive several weeks after the election if at all in order to ??????
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Nov 2, 2018 16:25
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1058210496967532544 Yeah, you're right, it's not like election judges of a particular party are known to turn people away for bullshit reasons or anything.
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Nov 2, 2018 16:31
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"did?" This doesn't even make sense, Ted
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Nov 2, 2018 16:42
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