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Flowers For Algeria posted:Yeah, well, we offered socialism as an alternative to barbary and you americans rejected it. Your "smug and rude Frenchman" gimmick is wearing a little thin, guy.
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Nov 2, 2018 18:14
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Flowers For Algeria posted:Yeah, well, we offered socialism as an alternative to barbary and you americans rejected it. We're pragmatists, we have no time for continental nonsense like fairness or justice or peace.
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Nov 2, 2018 18:19
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Maybe peace and love wasn't such a bad idea after all.
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Nov 2, 2018 18:24
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Rime posted:Accessible liquid hydrocarbons are gone. Accessible coal is gone (except really poo poo stuff, like the bagger fields of Germany). Surface minerals are gone. Subsurface minerals are tight. Fish are vanishing worldwide. Insects are vanishing. We don't know the long term health ramifications of the microplastics now showing up in loving Everything, Everywhere, could be nothing, could be worse than asbestos and on a global scale. Yeah, it'll be a fairly low power future for quite a while, but "yeah, we'll never surpass the Romans" is a fairly strong statement. Like, yeah, all the steel we've made will evaporate and not be the new surface mines, all the libraries will explode and we'll never have anything better than massive slave plantations. I get the feeling that this is the a fundamental disagreement that'll be found between a pessimistic person and an optimistic one, so I get the feeling we'll just be talking past each other on this one. 
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Nov 2, 2018 18:30
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just lol if you think you can stop me burning your books to stay warm
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Nov 2, 2018 18:33
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The idea that fossil fuels are a necessity for technological development, especially in a world covered in the ruins of a very technologically advanced civilization that existed a thousand years ago or whatever, is not really one that I buy into all that much. I see no reason why the world couldn't support a technological civilization of a hundred million people or so in a few thousand years.
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Nov 2, 2018 18:56
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That stems from a fundamental lack of understanding in the supply chain complexity for something as simple as a steam engine or lubricated bearings. That being said, this is also radically off topic and historically a dead end for discussion. So: Scientists ponder risk of abrupt climate shift (Yale Climate Connections) quote:As a young professor, Alley had logged the pearly cores of Greenland ice at a light table in a makeshift lab near the drill rig. He vividly recalls the “Oh, wow!” moment when he noticed the translucent layers corresponding to the end of the Younger Dryas. Suddenly, they thickened – indicating a huge, abrupt increase in snowfall. White – who also spent time in Greenland processing the cylinders of ice – Alley, and several other researchers went on to write a paper in Nature reporting that snowfall doubled over a period of one-to-three years. At the same time, Greenland’s temperatures rose an astounding 8 °C (14 °F) in less than a decade. This virtually instantaneous climate fluctuation has since been identified in many other parts of the world. This would, of course, kill pretty much every species on earth.  Rime fucked around with this message at 19:22 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 19:16
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Eddy-Baby posted:just lol if you think you can stop me burning your books to stay warm Hey now, this is the climate change thread. You think anyone here has actually read a book? (Okay that one was a cheap shot.) Rime posted:I'm not saying we're likely to go extinct as a species, but the chances of us ever recovering to punch higher than Roman level development in the event that civilization completely falls apart is unlikely, and even that seems optimistic given the staggering scale of non-renewable resource depletion and widespread pollution which we've engaged in over the past 75 years. Get help.
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Nov 2, 2018 19:19
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Rime posted:That stems from a fundamental lack of understanding in the supply chain complexity for something as simple as a steam engine or lubricated bearings. It seems like you don't distinguish between a few decades and a few hundred years. A poo poo load of stuff can get done if you give it hundreds or thousands of years of slow and painful development and recovery.
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Nov 2, 2018 19:42
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Rime posted:That stems from a fundamental lack of understanding in the supply chain complexity for something as simple as a steam engine or lubricated bearings. I'm glad you put a smiley in there to lessen the blow! Good for you for supporting discussion like that
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Nov 2, 2018 19:51
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Rime posted:
An even dumber statement than the coal one made upthread.
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Nov 2, 2018 20:08
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:An even dumber statement than the coal one made upthread. Would you like to explain to the class how species which are already stressed and at risk of extinction due to existing environmental pressures would adapt to an 8 degree global temperature increase in under a decade? Go ahead, we'll wait. ChairMaster posted:It seems like you don't distinguish between a few decades and a few hundred years. A poo poo load of stuff can get done if you give it hundreds or thousands of years of slow and painful development and recovery. The fallacious notion that "good old human grit 'N ingenuity" will solve most any problem is why we're sitting here while the world quite literally burns around us. Much like once you have drawn down a deep cycle battery far enough it will never hold a charge again, there is a point of exhaustion for basic feedstock resources which creates a hard wall - beyond which civilization cannot bootstrap itself back out of the middle ages. You cannot have modern civilization without energy density. You cannot have that energy density without liquid hydrocarbons. A few thousand years from now, after regressing to god only knows what level of subsistence to survive the climate, people are not going to stumble on the mythical plans for a lithium ion battery and bring out a second golden age of clean energy, because the vast industrial base required to build a loving lithium cell will not exist and will never exist again. Like, do you realize how inefficient the water wheel was before the development of petroleum lubricants? Is a society coming off a century or two of subsistence farming in a desolate climate going to just start up a fracking operation to squeeze out some tight oil? Christ man, the last time things fell apart that bad we forgot how to make loving Concrete. For over a thousand years. And we had a nice cozy ecosystem full of abundant resources and no widespread pollution. In your apocalypse fantasy where civilization crumbles apart entirely but humanity does not go extinct, there is no glorious future to dream about. We're just hosed. Rime fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 20:16
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It's November and it's currently 25 to 40 degrees hotter here than it has been in every prior year that I can remember. Literally late spring/early summer temperatures at the moment. And then I log in and remember this thread exists. Way to brighten up my day.  Real talk though, setting aside the sadbrain stuff and doom and gloom just how bad is the current projected rate of change? It seems like there's a hell of a lot of variability in what people are saying. You've got some folks that are giving "Hothouse Earth" end of the world speeches while others are saying that we can kiss our current culture of consumerism goodbye in a century or so. poo poo, even this thread has people going back and forth on it. Archonex fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 20:16
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Eddy-Baby posted:just lol if you think you can stop me burning your books to stay warm But it's 80 degrees out. In winter.
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Nov 2, 2018 20:46
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Sundae posted:Get help. You should direct that towards the human species in general rather than at those perceptive enough to see the problem. 2 + 2 = we're hosed. People deal with that in all sorts of ways but, I mean, we're hosed.
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Nov 2, 2018 20:52
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Archonex posted:It's November and it's currently 25 to 40 degrees hotter here than it has been in every prior year that I can remember. Literally late spring/early summer temperatures at the moment. I'm not a climate scientist but I've been following this stuff closely for about 10 years now. Conservative estimates (ipcc or similar bigger groups of expert who are beholden to political pressure to state digestible predictions) are saying its faster than predicted and the window to limit it to a stable level (wherever that is) is closing in a decade at most. The raw data suggests it's way faster than that, with tipping point being either reached too quickly or the warming being way worse than anticipated. Basically though nobody knows for sure, and kissing consumerism goodbye in a century is the lowest end of predictions being realistically considered, and hothouse earth being a slightly sensationalist but plausible worst case scenario. If you want it in a brief summary: the rate of change is manageable in the next few decades, getting critical near mid century and pretty much catastrophic at the end of the century in the current way things are going . Any scenario that is close to keeping the world at a recognizable state is theoretically possible if humanity pulls together and revolutionizes our way of living, but seeing as things are going very, very unlikely.
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Nov 2, 2018 21:09
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Archonex posted:Real talk though, setting aside the sadbrain stuff and doom and gloom just how bad is the current projected rate of change? lol perfect loving example "hey so the news is so bad I chose to reject it, can someone please give me some sugar coated baby candy so i can feel better?" quote:It seems like there's a hell of a lot of variability in what people are saying. You've got some folks that are giving "Hothouse Earth" end of the world speeches while others are saying that we can kiss our current culture of consumerism goodbye in a century or so. poo poo, even this thread has people going back and forth on it.
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Nov 2, 2018 21:11
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StabbinHobo posted:lol perfect loving example What is actually your point dude? You dunk on everyone who thinks the situation is really bad and now you're dunking on a person who doesn't know which level of terrible they should anticipate. What do you think the world will look like in ten, twenty and thirty years from now? What's the non- doom and gloom reality?
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Nov 2, 2018 21:16
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I always liked this quote about the rate of exponential growth. It applies to climate change because we've introduced a system of exponential growth (our carbon emissions) into one that was relatively stable. Fact is, we don't know what the tipping point is. But it's likely to happen a lot faster than we expected.quote:"Imagine a magic pipette. It is magic because every drop of water that comes out of it will double in size every minute. So the first minute there is one drop, the second minute there are two drops, the third minute four drops, the fourth minute eight drops and so on… This is an example of exponential growth. Now, imagine a normal sized football stadium. In this stadium you are sitting on the seat at the very top of the stadium, with the best overview of the whole stadium. To make things more interesting, imagine the stadium is completely water-tight and that you cannot move from your seat. The first drop from the magic pipette is dropped right in the middle of the field, at 12pm. Here's the question: Remembering that this drop grows exponentially by doubling in size every minute, how much time do you have to free yourself from the seat and leave the stadium before the water reaches your seat at the very top? Think about it for a moment. Is it hours, days, weeks, months? What time it is right now with regard to how fast things are deteriorating depends on your perspective. It's not looking good though. I'd say the latest IPCC report tells us we are at 12:44 and that we better get out of the stadium soon.
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Nov 2, 2018 21:19
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Slavvy posted:You dunk on everyone who thinks the situation is really bad quote:and now you're dunking on a person who doesn't know which level of terrible they should anticipate. quote:What's the non- doom and gloom reality?
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Nov 2, 2018 21:56
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StabbinHobo posted:what the gently caress are you talking about? why would you pull poo poo like this completely out of your rear end in a top hat? try finding a quote where i do this even once, let alone as a pattern. you can't, because you're not actually talking to me you're talking to some made up bullshit in your head. Whoa man, chill.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 2, 2018 22:00
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Rime posted:Whoa man, chill. Tell that to the climate buddy
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Nov 2, 2018 22:02
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StabbinHobo posted:what the gently caress are you talking about? why would you pull poo poo like this completely out of your rear end in a top hat? try finding a quote where i do this even once, let alone as a pattern. you can't, because you're not actually talking to me you're talking to some made up bullshit in your head. No they are right, most of your posts are angry and confrontational.
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Nov 2, 2018 22:04
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Shifty Nipples posted:No they are right, most of your posts are angry and confrontational. I kinda get his point though... If you totally believe (and I do as well) we are loving the planet up for generations to come it's natural to be a bit angry about it. It's still worth seeing the doc though.
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Nov 2, 2018 22:15
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Trainee PornStar posted:I kinda get his point though... If you totally believe (and I do as well) we are loving the planet up for generations to come it's natural to be a bit angry about it. Oh yeah I agree with that.
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Nov 2, 2018 22:23
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Shifty Nipples posted:No they are right, most of your posts are angry and confrontational. quote:You dunk on everyone who thinks the situation is really bad they didn't accuse me of being angry and confrontational, they accused me of "dunking on everyone who thinks the situation is really bad"... which is a categorically false accusation. as is your support of it when you say "they are right". when people confront me with false accusations, I will be mean in my responses. if you make poo poo up you're an rear end in a top hat, gently caress you, the end. StabbinHobo fucked around with this message at 22:55 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 22:45
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StabbinHobo posted:what the gently caress are you talking about? why would you pull poo poo like this completely out of your rear end in a top hat? try finding a quote where i do this even once, let alone as a pattern. you can't, because you're not actually talking to me you're talking to some made up bullshit in your head. I think maybe they're talking about when you're arguing against "it's so bad, nothing matters" people. For the record, I support you in that position, despite your abrasive ways
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Nov 2, 2018 23:12
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Don't make this thread about StabbinHobo. StabbinHobo, please calm down. Thank you.
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Nov 2, 2018 23:20
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIgDOehIoS0&t=60s
StabbinHobo fucked around with this message at 23:26 on Nov 2, 2018 |
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Nov 2, 2018 23:23
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Rime posted:Would you like to explain to the class how species which are already stressed and at risk of extinction due to existing environmental pressures would adapt to an 8 degree global temperature increase in under a decade? Would you like to explain to the class how you extrapolated an 8C rise in temperature at a site in Greenland to imply an 8C rise in global mean surface temperature? Aren't you in an environmental engineering program or something? How are you this loving stupid. Edit: For anyone following along and curious about what's going on here, there's a general effect called Arctic Amplification which results in the poles heating faster than the midlatitudes and equator. We absolutely expect step changes in the Arctic due to ice mass losses and freshwater hosing effects among other things. This doesn't imply an 8C increases in global temperatures, but that's not to say that it's impossible for us to create an 8C delta and blow pass the previous winner for largest change, the Paleocene-Eocene Thernal Maximum. It just requires a more cogent argument than Rime's headass one. Notorious R.I.M. fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Nov 3, 2018 |
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Nov 3, 2018 03:17
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Archonex posted:
Most of these outcomes are valid because our projections are distributions not individual outcomes. As a global society we do a loving garbage job of measuring our planet due to budgetary constraints, so we have significant variance in modeling outcomes. Beyond this, what we choose to do from here drastically changes the distribution of outcomes. The best outcomes, imo, result in global logistics networks falling apart with smaller, more resilient communities surviving while most die of famine. The worst outcomes result in humans and most if not all other mammals going extinct in a few hundred to few thousand years. Either way, the timing window to start having these effects hit home for those in the first world will probably be around the 2030s, so now is the time to prepare.
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Nov 3, 2018 03:52
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Mozi posted:You should direct that towards the human species in general rather than at those perceptive enough to see the problem. This thread is almost three loving years old. THREE YEARS of the same core group of depressed headcases moaning into a bucket about something it's impossible for them to change, while intermittently posting links to more doomsday material so they can get their fix and keep the grief party going. Sure, people deal with things in all sorts of ways. This thread is a pretty damned unhealthy way of coping.
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Nov 3, 2018 03:56
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Sundae posted:This thread is almost three loving years old. THREE YEARS of the same core group of depressed headcases https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3453503
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Nov 3, 2018 04:02
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Is that someone volunteering to write a new OP I hear?
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Nov 3, 2018 04:08
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The old threads are always a fun read to see all the "middle-of-the-road" optimistic predictions turn out loving wrong.
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Nov 3, 2018 04:09
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Sundae posted:This thread is almost three loving years old. THREE YEARS of the same core group of depressed headcases moaning into a bucket about something it's impossible for them to change, while intermittently posting links to more doomsday material so they can get their fix and keep the grief party going. This is... what people talking about reality looks like, though. I mean, I get what you're saying, but people still talk about the news when the news is depressing. This thread actually gets some fairly good discussion going from time to time, but it's tough when bad news (ie, all the news) is met with immediate push-back from people who are just unhappy the bad side of our probability curve is way bigger than the good side.
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Nov 3, 2018 04:29
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Sundae posted:This thread is almost three loving years old. THREE YEARS of the same core group of depressed headcases moaning into a bucket about something it's impossible for them to change, while intermittently posting links to more doomsday material so they can get their fix and keep the grief party going. happiness is a disease, either learn to immunize yourself or die stupid
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Nov 3, 2018 04:52
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Rime posted:I am the civilization recovering after centuries of a dark age, but will somehow be able to strip mine this worthless coal deposit which is only accessible thanks to modern technology, and which will have a negligible if not negative EROEI. I think now we've dug up and processed a poo poo tonne of metal it would actually be easier for future civilisations to piggy back off of that effort ie recycling aluminium, steel, copper etc The would need some good form of energy though, yes.
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Nov 3, 2018 05:42
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Na, Sunday is right. I'm not saying we're not doomed, but some of y'all have woven bad news into your identities. The fact that other people aren't sulking means they have healthy emotional states. Let's assume the worst predictions are accurate. That means we're getting to experience what might be the pinnacle of life on this planet. You're allowed to enjoy that. You might find a way to do some good while you're out there. It's as least as likely as sitting around in here moping
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Nov 3, 2018 06:19
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Epitope posted:Na, Sunday is right. I'm not saying we're not doomed, but some of y'all have woven bad news into your identities. The fact that other people aren't sulking means they have healthy emotional states. Let's assume the worst predictions are accurate. That means we're getting to experience what might be the pinnacle of life on this planet. You're allowed to enjoy that. You might find a way to do some good while you're out there. It's as least as likely as sitting around in here moping I don't know about you, but to know that those younger than me, my cousins and my children etc will face something worse than what I already do does not allow me to have time to enjoy myself. My life is tied to my community and my family, and having the knowledge that my community and my family will face consequences that are out of our hands is not something that I can just wave away.
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Nov 3, 2018 07:36
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