|
Al! posted:now obama will let you get mad prescient considering he just pulled that whole galaxy brained "If they take your right to vote away, vote." poo poo at the Georgia Dems rally Hoping Stacy Abrams wins despite all the cheating Kemp pulled, yet  My vote doesn't matter, I say as I close my eyes and feed my ballot into the machine
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 19:18
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 10:44 |
|
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 19:38
|
|
|
Lastgirl posted:prescient considering he just pulled that whole galaxy brained "If they take your right to vote away, vote." poo poo at the Georgia Dems rally whatever you do, please dont feel emotions. they are irrational and therefore bad
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 19:39
|
|
|
I canvassed today 
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 20:26
|
|
|
I think the ev so far is genuinely encouraging for the dems, but the same was true in 16 - the smarter wonks who do individual state results were all ‘if my analysis is correct, hillary leads by a couple of points, so trump will need to have a blowout Election Day and win big with indies!’ and it turned out they were right, but also he did. we just have to suffer through to election night before we find out if history repeats.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 20:57
|
|
|
Lawman 0 posted:I canvassed today Me too!
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 21:00
|
|
|
Apraxin posted:I think the ev so far is genuinely encouraging for the dems, but the same was true in 16 - the smarter wonks who do individual state results were all ‘if my analysis is correct, hillary leads by a couple of points, so trump will need to have a blowout Election Day and win big with indies!’ and it turned out they were right, but also he did. i get where you're coming from but it helps to remember clinton went out of her way to throw the race
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 21:02
|
|
|
Apraxin posted:I think the ev so far is genuinely encouraging for the dems, but the same was true in 16 - the smarter wonks who do individual state results were all ‘if my analysis is correct, hillary leads by a couple of points, so trump will need to have a blowout Election Day and win big with indies!’ and it turned out they were right, but also he did. yeah at the end of the day today's elections in america are equivalent to playing poker because the two sides are so closely matched: you could have the best hand and make the best plays and still lose. So much is outside of the control of either party's campaigns and dependent on what amounts to random poo poo like "oops controversy popup about candidate X at exact right time" , or ILLEGAL ALIEN MS-666 ISIS CARAVAN. Typo has issued a correction as of 21:05 on Nov 3, 2018 |
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 21:03
|
|
|
Office Pig posted:i get where you're coming from but it helps to remember clinton went out of her way to throw the race We don't have enough data on how early voting correlates to election outcomes that it's possible to read any outcome one wants in the data. My opinion: Early voters are not undecided voters, though they may be occasional or otherwise reluctant voters. Early voting only weakly correlates with enthusiasm, as a lot of early voters are reliable voters and it's difficult, if not impossible to know going into election night how much EV represents time-shifted voting and how much represents votes that wouldn't have been cast otherwise. EV wasn't great for Dems in 2016, but a big part of that was that the GOP ran a comparable GOTV effort themselves. In the end, both sides ran an equally effective GOTV effort, but that for reasons that aren't completely clear, Dems are more likely to vote early. Trump won because undecided voters broke decisively for him at the end, not because of any early voting trend.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 21:22
|
|
|
Office Pig posted:i get where you're coming from but it helps to remember clinton went out of her way to throw the race
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 21:25
|
|
|
We were spoiled because with the rise of the internet from a tool for nerds to something that suffuses every aspect of our lives, we also had a remarkably stable electorate. After GWB put a stake through the heart of the Dixiecrat in 2000 up until 2016, the electoral map was mostly stable. The same states that were battlegrounds in 2004 were for the most part in 2016, aside from minor shifts. This gave us polling that was more accurate than can normally be assumed. The really big question right now, one which pollsters can only guess at, is whether 2016 was an aberration caused by a race between two of the least likeable presidential candidates in history, or whether the 2016 electorate is the new normal. Until that shakes out, probably after 2020, we're gonna have to deal with less reliable polling than we're used to.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 21:55
|
|
|
the difference between two years ago and now is the enthusiasm gap, which was dismally large against the democrats. a month ago, republican enthusiasm was close to democrats due to the kavanaugh circus. even then, that looked like it wasn't going to help much for the house, though it made the senate safer. now with the events of the last couple weeks, those gains look to be erased individual race polls don't mean as much as those for overall voter enthusiasm and turnout for the primaries
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 22:59
|
|
|
I personally can't wait until all the polls are correct so we get polls every day forever.
|
|
#
?
Nov 3, 2018 23:45
|
|
|
I get the feeling SC1 might flip. Haven't seen much in the way of polling but if the "yard sign" poo poo is real I think Cunningham is ahead. The Republican, Arrington, is doing a lot of mud slinging lately and leaking some weak rear end stories to the local political blogs which I think shows her being nervous. A bunch of Republican mayors in the yuppy beach resort cities around Charleston have endorsed Cunningham because he opposes off shore drilling which surprisingly seems like the biggest local issue this election. Arrington has put out a bunch of ads saying its a lie but there is video of her saying she supports Trump's removal of the ban on Atlantic coast drilling. The conservative Charleston Post and Courier also endorsed him (maybe I'm naive but I still believe newspaper endorsements matter in local races) lamentable dustman has issued a correction as of 00:22 on Nov 4, 2018 |
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 00:20
|
|
|
Lawman 0 posted:I canvassed today 
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 02:07
|
|
|
Peanut President posted:even if the dems win they're not gonna do anything yeah, cool, we loving know I'm only in this to watch trump shrink and transform into a corn cob
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 04:07
|
|
|
bad post gone
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 04:35
|
|
|
.
Typo has issued a correction as of 04:45 on Nov 4, 2018 |
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 04:38
|
|
|
get that OUT of my face posted:the difference between two years ago and now is the enthusiasm gap, which was dismally large against the democrats. a month ago, republican enthusiasm was close to democrats due to the kavanaugh circus. even then, that looked like it wasn't going to help much for the house, though it made the senate safer. now with the events of the last couple weeks, those gains look to be erased I don't think there is ever a big enthusiasm gap nowadays, the main reason being that if one side looks to be mobilized it mobilizes the other side automatically
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 04:40
|
|
|
Ramrod Hotshot posted:yeah, cool, we loving know one thing matters: to watch teump fill his diapers on election night all else is immaterial
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 04:51
|
|
|
Soup du Jour posted:one thing matters: teump
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 05:01
|
|
|
I'm gonna not vote even though i can eat it, dead troops, u died 4 nothin
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 05:53
|
|
|
If my rep or senator was anywhere close to a tossup i would 100% cuck out and vote though tbf
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 05:54
|
|
|
Apraxin posted:I think the ev so far is genuinely encouraging for the dems, but the same was true in 16 - the smarter wonks who do individual state results were all ‘if my analysis is correct, hillary leads by a couple of points, so trump will need to have a blowout Election Day and win big with indies!’ and it turned out they were right, but also he did. !! less than 72 hours remain !! TraderStav posted:Is this the thread where I ask liberal Goon hive mind to tell me which of my local candidates to pick (namely the 'unpartied' Judges and crap) to participate in the blew wave? u can just leave those blank
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 06:04
|
|
|
I'm posting from the future where it is w e d n e s d a y already and lmao hoo boy you guys are in for a surprise oh goodness
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 06:10
|
|
|
crazy cloud posted:I'm posting from the future where it is w e d n e s d a y already and lmao hoo boy you guys are in for a surprise oh goodness
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 06:11
|
|
|
Apraxin posted:just pretend i posted the requisite jeb! picture here 
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 06:21
|
|
|
crazy cloud posted:I'm posting from the future where it is w e d n e s d a y already and lmao hoo boy you guys are in for a surprise oh goodness jeb
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 06:43
|
|
|
piss tape is real
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 06:43
|
|
|
Jeb! win is real
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 06:53
|
|
|
mailed in my ballot. i think i got a misprint because i had to write in Jeb! for most of the choices and a lot of them didnt have any names just Yes and No so i had to write Jeb! over the entire section
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 06:54
|
|
|
On election night I did not clap for Jeb!. This year, I will fix my mistake. Jeb! is real, and strong, and my friend. I will clap for him as I eat my flavorless guac.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 06:57
|
|
|
Soup du Jour posted:one thing matters: to watch teump fill his diapers on election night 
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 07:08
|
|
|
packing my diapers to own the libs
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 08:00
|
|
|
Man Musk posted:!! less than 72 hours remain !! True enough but figured I'd do the needful and cut every red out where I can.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 15:01
|
|
|
Man Musk posted:!! less than 72 hours remain !! itll be a christmas loving miracle if i can make it that long without being hospitalized arrested or both
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 19:25
|
|
|
Ramrod Hotshot posted:yeah, cool, we loving know Good luck with that. Also Joe Donnelly D-in is gonna lose, book it.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 19:42
|
|
|
Like literally the entire campaign between Donnely and Braun is over the fact that Donnely owns some company that uses mexican labor and Braun's auto supply company imports parts from china. That's it. That's the whole conflict. Literally that futurama presidential debate but instead of "going too far" it's two right wing white dudes saying "my opponent offshores jobs"
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 19:44
|
|
|
i thought they were competing to try and say that they love kav more
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 19:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 10:44 |
|
|
Peanut President posted:Like literally the entire campaign between Donnely and Braun is over the fact that Donnely owns some company that uses mexican labor and Braun's auto supply company imports parts from china. That's it. That's the whole conflict. Literally that futurama presidential debate but instead of "going too far" it's two right wing white dudes saying "my opponent offshores jobs" TRUMP
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2018 20:12
|
|