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Missionary Positron posted:What if voter suppression does its thing and the GOP manages to somehow hold on the House? The strychnine flavored kool-aid.
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Nov 5, 2018 19:01
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I don't think it's possible for any sort of tomfoolery to prevent the house from flipping. I can 100% see suppression and other shenanigans preventing a seat flip here or there, or maybe even a whole state. But not everywhere. And if what's happened so far with early voting is even remotely true of tomorrow, there's nothing that can stop the wave. edit: the Senate is a different story. I'm not expecting that to flip but it would be nice.
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Nov 5, 2018 19:01
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psydude posted:If Dems retake the house, I'll have a victory beer. If Dems retake the Senate, I'm breaking out the good scotch. If Dems take both the house and Senate, I'm opening a bottle of Laphroaig and lighting a Romeo y Julieta cigar. Yes, it'll cost me $75 bucks, but it's worth it.
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Nov 5, 2018 19:02
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BigDave posted:If Dems take both the house and Senate, lol
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Nov 5, 2018 19:06
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https://twitter.com/wef/status/1058675216027660288?s=19
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Nov 5, 2018 19:07
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Dems gonna win big tomorrow, lose bigly 2020.
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Nov 5, 2018 19:07
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My prediction: The monkey paw closes again in a two-for-one: SBP-DIC repeal and the Blue Wave. The lame duck Republican Congress guts the republic with SBP-DIC repeal as its fig leaf.
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Nov 5, 2018 19:12
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EBB posted:lol DAMNIT EBB LET ME HAVE A SLIVER OF HOPE IN MY DARK AND FRUSTRATED HELLSCAPE OF A EXISTENCE
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Nov 5, 2018 19:18
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Just let me know when the gip riot squad is stood up, you can @ me on discord because I'm not buying platinum for the 5th time or whatever I lost count
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Nov 5, 2018 19:19
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mods changed my name posted:Just let me know when the gip riot squad is stood up, you can @ me on discord because I'm not buying platinum for the 5th time or whatever I lost count We have a discord server?
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Nov 5, 2018 19:20
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Missionary Positron posted:What if voter suppression does its thing and the GOP manages to somehow hold on the House? This is why I'm not drinking
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Nov 5, 2018 19:23
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Yeah it's alright, someone with the aforementioned plat will send you a link soon I'm sure
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Nov 5, 2018 19:23
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Milo and POTUS posted:Dems gonna win big tomorrow, lose bigly 2020. 
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Nov 5, 2018 19:38
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Vasudus posted:I don't think it's possible for any sort of tomfoolery to prevent the house from flipping. I can 100% see suppression and other shenanigans preventing a seat flip here or there, or maybe even a whole state. But not everywhere. And if what's happened so far with early voting is even remotely true of tomorrow, there's nothing that can stop the wave. Most prognosticators are putting the House D-gain in the neighborhood of 30-40 when they need 23. The polling data basically says that you shouldn't be shocked if the Democrats only get 19, or if they get like 50. The reliability of the polling data is really tough, because it badly missed in Virginia (expected to be a toss-up, Democrat won by 6), but was just about right in Alabama (toss-up, Democrat won by 1.7) and Georgia (same, Republican by 4%). Could be a squeaker, could be a democratic fuckup, could be a blue tsunami. The squeaker/wave is more likely, but people are bad at probabilities.
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Nov 5, 2018 19:39
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Putting elections in terms of probabilities isn't really good in the long term anyway. There is no chance involved in elections, its entirely decision based. Yeah you can use statistical methods on the data but it gives you a false sense of how the results are derived. Ignore polls, canvas harder.
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Nov 5, 2018 19:45
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Finally hillary will be president
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Nov 5, 2018 19:53
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BigDave posted:We have a discord server? @UP THE BUM NO BABY get this man an invite
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Nov 5, 2018 20:05
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He's already in the list of offline posters so IDK what's going on
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Nov 5, 2018 20:06
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facialimpediment posted:Most prognosticators are putting the House D-gain in the neighborhood of 30-40 when they need 23. The polling data basically says that you shouldn't be shocked if the Democrats only get 19, or if they get like 50. Yeah it's incredibly hard to get accurate polling these days. NYT did a live tracker where they listed who they were calling (demographically speaking) and their success rate last week. They called 24k numbers and got 324 responses from 18-34s. Like legit there has to be *something* new invented to accurately poll people otherwise in maybe a decade polls will just straight up go extinct, rather than just be increasingly inaccurate.
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Nov 5, 2018 20:08
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Everyone'e models assume you're a prior voter which could lead to some amazing results if non-voter turnout is really as high as it seems
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Nov 5, 2018 20:12
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Vasudus posted:Like legit there has to be *something* new invented to accurately poll people otherwise in maybe a decade polls will just straight up go extinct, rather than just be increasingly inaccurate. Right now, the main obstacle to public polling is cost. The NYT/Sienna polls are the new gold standard of running polling - pulling a sample directly from the voter file of the target district/state and calling them. That's expensive as all gently caress, since you have to staff a call center, repeatedly call the same number in hopes of getting the person, then figure out sample weighting for the people you absolutely can't contact. The method generally beats Random Digit Dialing, but IIRC some of that is banned by state laws. That's why there's been a flood of online-pollsters because online polls are cheap as hell, but still good-ish enough to be accurate. If a news organization wants to run a poll for news consumption value, the onliners are the way to go. Proud Christian Mom posted:Everyone's models assume you're a prior voter which could lead to some amazing results if non-voter turnout is really as high as it seems This has been the #1 problem for pollsters: who votes? Generally, a "likely voter" responds something like an 8-10 on a "How sure are you to vote this election?" question, but people lie like crazy about that question. Some 10s don't end up voting, but get weighed heavy in the sample, while some 5-6s are barely counted, but still vote! The general movement of society from landlines to cell phones have really hosed up pollsters.
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Nov 5, 2018 20:26
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I think I'm just gonna go vote then go to work and ignore the news until Wednesday morning.
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Nov 5, 2018 20:42
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Yeah I'm going to try to avoid all news sources tomorrow for my mental well being, which means I'll be posting in here by noon.
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Nov 5, 2018 20:50
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That Works posted:I think I'm just gonna go vote then go to work and ignore the news until Wednesday morning.
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Nov 5, 2018 20:52
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I'm sure the plague of scam callers where you might get 5-10 calls per day from "card services" or "about your car warranty" probably cause a lot of people to not answer unknown numbers. And conservatives like my mom have been conditioned by the propaganda machine to think pollsters are fake news devils working against Republicans.
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Nov 5, 2018 20:59
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It's really good having a number from before I moved. I have absolutely zero connections to anybody in CT that I don't already have in my phone, ergo any call from a 203/860 prefix is immediately a scam. Likewise any call from a Maryland or Virginia number is always something I should pick up. Also get Robokiller. It's well worth the 12 dollars a year for the app.
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Nov 5, 2018 21:04
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Took this photo today, it was a little surreal as I had been watching Rob Zombie's Halloween this morning.
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Nov 5, 2018 21:15
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https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1059513365570174976
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Nov 5, 2018 21:15
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The toughest president of all time, folks
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Nov 5, 2018 21:20
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https://twitter.com/dasharez0ne/status/1059542277318758401
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Nov 5, 2018 21:28
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Republicans will hold the house and Senate. Why? Because the news keeps talking about how well the dems are doing with early voting.
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Nov 5, 2018 21:28
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Vasudus posted:Yeah it's incredibly hard to get accurate polling these days. NYT did a live tracker where they listed who they were calling (demographically speaking) and their success rate last week. They called 24k numbers and got 324 responses from 18-34s. Social media aggregation would be about 95% accurate if you had access to everybody's facebook.
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Nov 5, 2018 21:39
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GOP will gain more seats than anyone thought possible, because it has to be the worst outcome possible. Because 2018.
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Nov 5, 2018 21:40
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The revolution will be livestreamed. Please like, follow, and subscribe and if you are a fan of the way I'm overthrowing the regime and want to support me financially take a lpok at my Ko.Fi and Patreon. More content avaliable in my instagram.
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Nov 5, 2018 21:44
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https://twitter.com/sandoverer/status/1059533992658169857?s=19
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Nov 5, 2018 21:49
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sounds like something the LIZARD MEN would say 
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Nov 5, 2018 21:51
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Maybe good news for whomever is in Virginia? https://twitter.com/ByRosenberg/status/1059536638160723968
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Nov 5, 2018 22:00
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Oh good, so only 25k new people rather than 50k. I might be able to buy a house before I'm put in the grave after all.
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Nov 5, 2018 22:07
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mods changed my name posted:Just let me know when the gip riot squad is stood up, you can @ me on discord because I'm not buying platinum for the 5th time or whatever I lost count https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nv1_Ig58V2Y
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Nov 5, 2018 22:23
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Hahahahaha
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Nov 5, 2018 22:26
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