2018 Forever Midterms Official Thread: congrats mr. president on your victory

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 2018 Forever Midterms Official Thread: congrats mr. president on your victory

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the bitcoin of weed: Nov 1, 2014

https://twitter.com/BethLynch2020/status/1059923713657835525?s=19

surprised there hasn't been more of this tbh

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:32

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# ? May 25, 2024 12:52

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

Wait a second, when did You a loving Hat show up?

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:32

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

Does this mean Matey's freedom is imminent?

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:33

oneforthevine: Sep 25, 2015

Free Powerball imo

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:34

Dog Pipes: Jan 17, 2015

YOU A loving HAT posted:

yeah i really didn't see it going any other way. Did you?

No idea. Drunk and poo poo. 10:34pm here.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:34

WampaLord: Jan 14, 2010

Thoguh posted:

That's the extreme corner case but like I posted the much more common situation is just that when you don't get to vote in secret you're much more likely to be influenced - such as a wife or husband voting exactly the same as their spouse because they both filled out their ballots together and didn't want to get in an argument. Which is a super common thing couples do about lots of things even if there isn't abuse in the relationship.

And your proposal to fix this issue is to eliminate mail in voting, thus making it incredibly harder for millions of people to vote?

That's some galaxy brain poo poo.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:34

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

the bitcoin of weed posted:

https://twitter.com/BethLynch2020/status/1059923713657835525?s=19

surprised there hasn't been more of this tbh

quote:

�We don�t have a crime right now. But he was seen by a passerby sitting in his car with the gun in his lap. The gun was not loaded,� the city�s police chief said.

how is that not illegal

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:35

Powershift: Nov 23, 2009

Remember when Strom Thurmond, a vocal segregationalist, kept his senate seat until he was literally 100 god drat years old.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:35

The Glumslinger: Sep 24, 2008; Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?; Hair Elf

Shear Modulus posted:

how is that not illegal

Florida

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:37

Yinlock: Oct 22, 2008

Dog Pipes posted:

So GOP p much retaining control of the Senate so far.

i wonder how only pandering to nonexistent moderate republicans failed

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:37

Stefan Prodan: Jan 7, 2002; I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!; Grimey Drawer

when is boosted gonna show back up to celebrate the red wave

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:38

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

Yinlock posted:

i wonder how only pandering to nonexistent moderate republicans failed

it wouldnt have failed if they had tried it, unfortunately the looney lefty bernie fringe lost this campaign for the democrats just like they made hillary lose

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:38

Beefed Owl: Sep 13, 2007; Come at me scrub-lord I'm ripped!

How are people already calling the election for the Senate when not a single drat poll is closed

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:39

YOU A FUCKING HAT: Jun 7, 1979; I CAN'T BE STOPPED OR REASONED WITH

Thoguh posted:

Wait a second, when did You a loving Hat show up?

Everyone knows the smell of live election results always draws me near, to shitpost again for one magical evening.

Come morning, I vanish again for another two years.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:40

Powershift: Nov 23, 2009

TurboFlamingChicken posted:

How are people already calling the election for the Senate when not a single drat poll is closed

The only red seats at risk are in deep chud territory and they're using their brains

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:41

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

TurboFlamingChicken posted:

How are people already calling the election for the Senate when not a single drat poll is closed

Even if there's a pretty big blue wave the republicans are still keeping the senate just because of what subset of senators are up for re-election this cycle. If the dems take the senate we're approaching Blue Supervolcano territory.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:41

LGD: Sep 25, 2004

Thoguh posted:

Mail in ballots aren't secret ballots. It is important for elections to be done by secret ballot. That's the entire basis of my thoughts on the matter.

you're prioritizing maximal secrecy to the point that you're defending systems that have statistically demonstrable negative effects on real-world voter enfranchisement because you're worried about the effects a change in the cultural default method of voting would have on imagined corner-case scenarios

again:

WampaLord posted:

And your proposal to fix this issue is to eliminate mail in voting, thus making it incredibly harder for millions of people to vote?

That's some galaxy brain poo poo.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:41

alnilam: Nov 10, 2009

Schnorkles posted:

5.) THE DEMS SCREAM DEATH

https://imgur.com/gallery/6oE77yi

This is the place where things veer into “Uh huh tell me more “ territory. In this universe, the dems manage to get to 53 or 54 senate seats, with Fischer and Hyde-Smith struggling to get re-elected. Somewhere between 80 and 100 seats will go Democratic, with seats like IA-04, TX-02/07/23, and WA-03 all falling in a tidal wave. What were thought to be safely republican seats like CA-21 (Valadao, who is in a democratic district but is very popular) get swept away and the republicans are left with only hard white rural seats. In some places, like MT-AL and AK-AL, they lose these too. In governorships, they lose literally everything except for the reddest states possible (minus Kansas, which they lose by between 5 and 7), and Dean ends up being surprisingly competitive in Tennessee.

Early Indicators:

- Donnelly cruising to re-election by a double digit margin
- Early vote comes in with double digit leads (like.. more than 20) for both Gillum and Nelson. Curbelo is obviously done with the first group of votes and FL-15 is done and dusted by the first live vote drop.
- Democrats are competitive to overwhelming in New England governor’s races currently held by republicans, and win 3 out of 5 in ME, NH, MD, VT and MA.
- ME-02 is called all but immediately for the dems.
- Dems win all 5 seats in NJ, including the very red NJ-11.
- Ojeda wins in WV-03 easily.
- Democratic gains in VA possibly extend past VA-02/05/07/10 and into the republicans literal backyard.
- 3 seats (Nc-09/13/14) in NC flip to Democrats.
- Idk this is basically a fever dream fill in your own adventure here.

schnorkles if we get any less than this i am holding u personally responsible, as the poll wizard

e: wrong thread but I'll leave it up

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:41

Xelkelvos: Dec 19, 2012

TurboFlamingChicken posted:

How are people already calling the election for the Senate when not a single drat poll is closed

Idk, but there's a minuscule amount of competitive Republican seats while there are at least a few competitive Democrat seats so the math is more or less against the Dems by default.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:41

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

WampaLord posted:

Okay but it actually is a really small corner case and insinuating that I'm in favor of vote suppression is kinda lovely, so...?

no i'm agreeing with you, I'm saying Thoguh is doing the same thing the GOP disingenuously does to disenfranchise people

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:42

YOU A FUCKING HAT: Jun 7, 1979; I CAN'T BE STOPPED OR REASONED WITH

Powershift posted:

Remember when Strom Thurmond, a vocal segregationalist, kept his senate seat until he was literally 100 god drat years old.

my dad met him once. he said it was nuts cuz the dude was a billion years old but had this crazy shock of dyed ginger hair in person and it was really funny to see up close.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:42

WampaLord: Jan 14, 2010

bawfuls posted:

no i'm agreeing with you, I'm saying Thoguh is doing the same thing the GOP disingenuously does to disenfranchise people

Oh, my b, we cool

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:44

Powered Descent: Jul 13, 2008; We haven't had that spirit here since 1969.

the bitcoin of weed posted:

https://twitter.com/BethLynch2020/status/1059923713657835525?s=19

surprised there hasn't been more of this tbh

I know whenever I see someone sitting in a car, I always make sure to get up real close and press my face up to the window so I can look directly at their crotch.

Color me skeptical that this guy was just sitting there with the gun in his lap. That would probably never have even been noticed.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:48

The Glumslinger: Sep 24, 2008; Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?; Hair Elf

https://twitter.com/senatorshoshana/status/1059939885652553734

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:49

Typo: Aug 19, 2009; Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Schnorkles posted:

How are the democraps doing? (a handy schnork guide)

There are a lot of competitive races this year, and as such, I don�t really have the time or energy to offer a breakdown on every single one. Instead, I�m going to try and benchmark important races that will suggest certain national trends based on the composition of the electorate.

You will note that I�m talking about the same set of elections in each case, because this is more a sense of �what does this thing look like in the first couple of hours� and not �here�s a comprehensive list of every race that will go in whichever direction.� We'll know, for instance, very quickly what things look like in FL because 60% of the vote will drop basically immediately. If its veering hard one way or the other, the night will basically be comfortably over by 8 pm EST and then its just about how bad the bleeding is.

I have offered 5 handy scenarios and early indicators of each of these scenarios. FWIW, I think its 3 or somewhere between 3 and 4:

1.) RED WAVE

In this universe the republicans (somehow) gain seats in the house and murder the hell out of the democrats in the senate. Completely flying in the face of any information we have, the republicans probably pick up a couple of democratic seats (NV-03, MN-01/07/08, AZ-01, NH-02, potentially FL-07) and only lose 2-3 in the house. In the senate they pick up something like 7 seats.

Early indicators:

- KY-06 is a 10 point republican win.
- Early returns in Indiana have Donnelly down a bunch.
- Early returns in FL look terrible for Nelson/Gillum, probably down between 5 and 10 points in the EV. Salazar winning by 5-10 in FL-27 and Murphy in serious trouble in FL-07.
- Wexton loses narrowly to Comstock in VA-10
- Raimondo loses in RI and Lamont loses in CN.
- Republicans easily hold ME-02 and look safe to hold the governor in Maine.
- NH 1 goes republican, Sununu wins re-election by 20-25 points.
- PA senate/governorship are unexpectedly tight.
- Democrats run tight in NJ-05 and are down in NJ-03/07.

2.) Republican Hold

In this actually possible universe, the republicans keep democratic gains to the high teens in the house and take 2-3 senate seats. They also limit the damage in governorships and keep democratic triplicate gains to only NM/IL. They, against the early vote, manage to mobilize massively in the rurals and hold in Nevada in both topline races, though they still face a democratic supermajority in the state senate there. Based on this mobilization, Tarkanian surprisingly manages to take the open NV-03, giving republicans three total flips along with MN-01 and MN-08. Salazar upsets a weak Shalala in FL-27 and Curbelo coasts to re-election in FL-26. In the rest of the country, the wealthy suburban seats fall (VA-10, CO-06, CA-49), but the republicans limit the damage in the more middle class suburbs like IA-03 and IL-13. Republicans hold the governorship in OH and IA against robust challenges.
In this universe, FL goes to a recount and Abrams loses in GA. Texas, Tennessee, and North Dakota aren�t particularly close in the senate and one of Donnelly, McCaskill and Tester loses as well.

This is much more of a district by district fight, and so early returns are kind of all over the place. But a couple of key indicators can be sussed out I think.

Early Indicators:

- While democrats look comfortable to pick up VA-10, they fall short in the other Virginia benchmarks: VA-02/05/07.
- Barr holds KY-06 against McGrath.
- Early returns in Indiana indicate a tight race between Donnelly and Braun, though Braun is definitely favored.
- ME-02 is 50/50 heading into the later portion of the evening, with the high northern part (which takes forever to report) deciding the race. As its heavily republican, Polinquin almost certainly manages to hold on.
- Salazar (R) is very close in early returns in FL-27.
- Both Gillum and Nelson are only very slightly up in the EV, with more vote to come from the heavily republican parts of the state. Curbelo looks comfortable in FL-26.
- Republicans manage to hold both NC-13 and NC-09.
- None of the NE republican governorships look close. Raimondo/Lamont are tight, but look favorable.
- While democrats pick up a couple seats in PA, they comprehensively lose in PA-08 and PA-10.
- Democrats lose one or both of NJ-3 and NJ-7

3.) Baseline Outcome

This is what the polls suggest is going to happen, and some form of this is the most likely scenario.

Democrats make serious gains in suburban and exurban districts. The statewide Midwest races are a annihilation equivalent to what happened to the Dems in 2016. Dems likely pick up in the neighborhood of 8-10 governors and keep senate loses to a seat at most. House pickup is +35 or so, fueled primarily by districts like VA-05/02, CO-06, MI-08/11, and MN-02/03. UT-04 may or may not be competitive.

Early Indicators:

- Early returns in Virginia indicate the dems are easily winning VA-10. VA-02 is slightly favored and competitive to tied in both VA-05/07.
- KY-06 is really close between Barr and McGrath.
- Early returns in Indiana have Donnelly doing well, especially among his base counties. While the race is tight, probably hedging towards a Donnelly edge.
- Lamont and Raimondo both look solid to safe in NE.
- The race versus Sununu is at least competitive, and Dems look comfortable in NH-01.
- ME-02/Governor is leaning dem early.
- NC-09/13 are both competitive.
- Early returns in FL look solid for Gillum and Nelson as NPAs break heavily in their direction. Shalala, while not as strong as she should be, still manages a solid early lead against Salazar. Curbelo is in the fight of his life.
- Upstate NY comes into play here, as NY-19 and NY-22 are tight but leaming Dem. 1 out of 2 ends up going Dem.
- Four out of the five republican seats in NJ (02/03/05/07) go Democratic.
- PA-08 is real close.

4.) A very good night

This is the upper end of what I�d consider to be a �reasonable� possibility. In this universe, the democrats take the house and narrowly take the senate (51-49) on the back of a shock win from Beto, Heitkamp, or Bredesen. Their gains in the house are close to 60 seats, sweeping significantly more republican seats such as WV-03, FL-15, VA-07, UT-04 etc. It will be fairly clear that we�re at this level initially, because it relies on suburban republicans abandoning the party en masse.

Early Indicators:
- Barr and McGrath are close, but McGrath looks solidly ahead.
- Donnelly performs strongly in early returns and looks set to win early in the night.
- The Dems easily win VA-02/05/10. Early returns put VA-07 as favored to flip democratic.
- One of the two NC seats (09/13) flips quickly, with the other looking very competitive.
- Dems win all 4 seats in NJ and look competitive in NJ-11.
- Dems win easily in Maine. Sununu is in a race in NH.
- Early returns in FL are really good for Dems. Nelson/Gillum look on track to win quickly and FL 26/27 are both firmly in the democratic camp. FL-15 is neck and neck.
- Manchin coasts to re-election and his strength in WV-03 propels Ojeda.
- The GOP gets annihilated in PA, and seats like PA-10 start being in danger.

5.) THE DEMS SCREAM DEATH

https://imgur.com/gallery/6oE77yi

This is the place where things veer into �Uh huh tell me more � territory. In this universe, the dems manage to get to 53 or 54 senate seats, with Fischer and Hyde-Smith struggling to get re-elected. Somewhere between 80 and 100 seats will go Democratic, with seats like IA-04, TX-02/07/23, and WA-03 all falling in a tidal wave. What were thought to be safely republican seats like CA-21 (Valadao, who is in a democratic district but is very popular) get swept away and the republicans are left with only hard white rural seats. In some places, like MT-AL and AK-AL, they lose these too. In governorships, they lose literally everything except for the reddest states possible (minus Kansas, which they lose by between 5 and 7), and Dean ends up being surprisingly competitive in Tennessee.

Early Indicators:

- Donnelly cruising to re-election by a double digit margin
- Early vote comes in with double digit leads (like.. more than 20) for both Gillum and Nelson. Curbelo is obviously done with the first group of votes and FL-15 is done and dusted by the first live vote drop.
- Democrats are competitive to overwhelming in New England governor�s races currently held by republicans, and win 3 out of 5 in ME, NH, MD, VT and MA.
- ME-02 is called all but immediately for the dems.
- Dems win all 5 seats in NJ, including the very red NJ-11.
- Ojeda wins in WV-03 easily.
- Democratic gains in VA possibly extend past VA-02/05/07/10 and into the republicans literal backyard.
- 3 seats (Nc-09/13/14) in NC flip to Democrats.
- Idk this is basically a fever dream fill in your own adventure here.

tbh it's looking like somewhere btwn 2-3

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:50

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

Typo posted:

tbh it's looking like somewhere btwn 2-3

Where are you getting thoughts on house races from? Nothing has closed yet. The senate is kind of a forgone conclusion unless poo poo gets wild but the house is way more up in the air until we at least get the first round of results.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:51

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

TurboFlamingChicken posted:

How are people already calling the election for the Senate when not a single drat poll is closed

Yeah what's up? Y'all getting exit polls from somewhere? (Don't trust exit polls, but also let me see them.)

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:52

UrbicaMortis: Feb 16, 2012; Hmm, how shall I post today?

Am I reading it right that most of your polling places close at 6pm? That's ridiculously early.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:53

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

UrbicaMortis posted:

Am I reading it right that most of your polling places close at 6pm? That's ridiculously early.

Only in some lovely states like Indiana.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:53

YOU A FUCKING HAT: Jun 7, 1979; I CAN'T BE STOPPED OR REASONED WITH

UrbicaMortis posted:

Am I reading it right that most of your polling places close at 6pm? That's ridiculously early.

mine closes 8pm EST

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:53

Typo: Aug 19, 2009; Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Thoguh posted:

Where are you getting thoughts on house races from? Nothing has closed yet. The senate is kind of a forgone conclusion unless poo poo gets wild but the house is way more up in the air until we at least get the first round of results.

predictit + 538's house seat rankings

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

just flip through odds on bellweather seats

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:54

Lastgirl: Sep 7, 1997; Good Morning!
Sunday Morning!

p sure Gillum said polls close at 7 in florida, so about an hour to go

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:54

Powershift: Nov 23, 2009

UrbicaMortis posted:

Am I reading it right that most of your polling places close at 6pm? That's ridiculously early.

You don't want people with jobs, but without vehicles voting. They vote wrong.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:54

docbeard: Jul 19, 2011

UrbicaMortis posted:

Am I reading it right that most of your polling places close at 6pm? That's ridiculously early.

Varies from state to state. Ours close at 8.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:55

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

That's Eastern time, not local time.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:55

Peanut President: Nov 5, 2008; by Athanatos

UrbicaMortis posted:

Am I reading it right that most of your polling places close at 6pm? That's ridiculously early.

Polls close at 6 Local in Indiana and Kentucky which is 6 eastern for most but 7 eastern for the western portions of both

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:56

Calibanibal: Aug 25, 2015

Eastern time aka regular time

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:56

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

Typo posted:

predictit + 538's house seat rankings

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

just flip through odds on bellweather seats

Yeah yeah, that's all well and good but let me pretend there might still be a systemic polling error in the Democrats favor until the polls come in. That 100+ seats and 54 Democratic senators looking pretty good right now if you ask me.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:56

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

Typo posted:

predictit + 538's house seat rankings

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

just flip through odds on bellweather seats

That hasn't changed since before polls opened this morning as far as I can tell.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:56

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# ? May 25, 2024 12:52

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

Also they're extending some polls in Indiana because of lack of ballots.

# ? Nov 6, 2018 23:57

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 2018 Forever Midterms Official Thread: congrats mr. president on your victory

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