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Soothing Vapors posted:if anyone needs a pick me up because you're bummed that your unrealistic expectations for last night didn't come true, Laura Loomer is losing her loving mind because she feels that Daddy Trump and Fox News both let her down by not broadcasting her insanity 24/7 and she's super depressed This makes my soul smile.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:24
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Your final point about the Senate is well taken, as are the continued complaints that the Senate is anti-democratic. The only thing I'd like to add on is that while the trends are continuing, there's no guarantee that they will continue this way indefinitely. The population exodus out of the rural states can reverse. The CHUDification of rural voters can reverse. I don't have any prescriptive answers for how to make those things happen, besides perhaps continued voting expansion via ballot initiatives. I just always think it's important that whenever we're looking at a "if current trends continue" problem that the current trends aren't guaranteed to continue. I don't remember who posted it, but I read in a D&D thread years ago, if current trends continue this sentence will never end.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:24
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The upside to Senator Batboy is that I get to vote against him in a few years. The downside is... everything else.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:24
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Is it genuinely time for blue states to consider ballot measures that divide them into smaller states? I know that poo poo has been floated in California by right-wing types, and failed for obvious reasons, but.... are we nearing that point of desperation?
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Nov 7, 2018 16:24
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Soothing Vapors posted:My fondest wish is that PPJ institutes a new policy where you have to pass a civics test confirming that you have even a rudimentary understanding of American politics before you can post in this thread Yeah, I'm hung over and full of poo poo this morning. My bad.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:25
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evilweasel posted:The gerrymandering case is still going on, but I'm not talking about gerrymandering. I'm talking about on a presidential level, and gerrymandering isn't the reason Walker only barely lost and won't effect how likely Trump is to win the state in 2020. Oh yeah there were court cases surrounding the Voter ID laws and poo poo but I don't know what happened with that. I don't think Evers can unilaterally get rid of those without the legislature though.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:25
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Beto did good, I hope Dems can hold onto a lot of the blue urban areas in 2020
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Nov 7, 2018 16:25
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Soothing Vapors posted:if anyone needs a pick me up because you're bummed that your unrealistic expectations for last night didn't come true, Laura Loomer is losing her loving mind because she feels that Daddy Trump and Fox News both let her down by not broadcasting her insanity 24/7 and she's super depressed Yeah, losing the senate is bad but that was expected and right now I consider a stalemate a victory. The dems are saying all the right things now about investigations despite this thread freaking out and the chuds are losing their minds.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:25
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Hellblazer187 posted:Your final point about the Senate is well taken, as are the continued complaints that the Senate is anti-democratic. The only thing I'd like to add on is that while the trends are continuing, there's no guarantee that they will continue this way indefinitely. The population exodus out of the rural states can reverse. The CHUDification of rural voters can reverse. I don't have any prescriptive answers for how to make those things happen, besides perhaps continued voting expansion via ballot initiatives. I just always think it's important that whenever we're looking at a "if current trends continue" problem that the current trends aren't guaranteed to continue. I don't remember who posted it, but I read in a D&D thread years ago, if current trends continue this sentence will never end. the most obvious solution to this problem is to try to find an issue in the democrats' wheelhouse that tests well in such areas like, i dunno. medicare for all. minimum wage hikes. https://twitter.com/zachdcarter/status/1060023822085177349
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Nov 7, 2018 16:26
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Yeah, losing the senate is bad but that was expected and right now I consider a stalemate a victory. The dems are saying all the right things now about investigations despite this thread freaking out and the chuds are losing their minds. Look again at who that tweet is from
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Nov 7, 2018 16:26
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Hellblazer187 posted:Your final point about the Senate is well taken, as are the continued complaints that the Senate is anti-democratic. The only thing I'd like to add on is that while the trends are continuing, there's no guarantee that they will continue this way indefinitely. The population exodus out of the rural states can reverse. The CHUDification of rural voters can reverse. I don't have any prescriptive answers for how to make those things happen, besides perhaps continued voting expansion via ballot initiatives. I just always think it's important that whenever we're looking at a "if current trends continue" problem that the current trends aren't guaranteed to continue. I don't remember who posted it, but I read in a D&D thread years ago, if current trends continue this sentence will never end. I guess it's conceivable that climate change could see migration away from coastal states, but that will affect the coastal southern states just as bad, if not worse, than it would the liberal northeast or west.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:26
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Z. Autobahn posted:Is it genuinely time for blue states to consider ballot measures that divide them into smaller states? I know that poo poo has been floated in California by right-wing types, and failed for obvious reasons, but.... are we nearing that point of desperation? been there for two years, glad to see you could join the conversation it's up there with court-packing in the list of "things that if you are not talking about, you are fundamentally unserious about winning"
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Nov 7, 2018 16:26
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Z. Autobahn posted:Is it genuinely time for blue states to consider ballot measures that divide them into smaller states? I know that poo poo has been floated in California by right-wing types, and failed for obvious reasons, but.... are we nearing that point of desperation? Most of those initiatives have been attempts to break solid blue states into a single blue state and more red states.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:27
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Arist posted:Look again at who that tweet is from Oh, I know. It’s awsom.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:27
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VH4Ever posted:Gah you're right aren't you. gently caress, now I'm actually a bit depressed, before just moderately frustrated/disappointed. The Senate results really are bad. I know a lot of people here have been papering this over by saying we never really had a shot (which is true to some degree), but that doesn't change the fact that a +2R result is just not good news. I'm also thinking that 2018 is pretty drat near peak anti-Trump and I'm not sure that we're going to do better in 2020. Combine that with the fact that it may be difficult to defend some of these house pick-ups and I'm concerned.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:28
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https://twitter.com/SirPatStew/status/1060177435679961089
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Nov 7, 2018 16:28
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VH4Ever posted:Gah you're right aren't you. gently caress, now I'm actually a bit depressed, before just moderately frustrated/disappointed. Yeah this is why as much as i hated red state democratic senators, we badly needed them: 2020 is a huge inflection point and stuff like voting rights reform and PR/DC statehood are so directly tied to the viability of the Democratic party that they'd probably support those and no Republican, however 'moderate' will. If Tester and Sinema can pull out wins despite being slightly down in the count right now (I have little hope for a Nelson recount but Tester and Sinema aren't dead yet), it might be possible to do this: I think we can swing 52-48. I don't know we can swing 54-46.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:28
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Lightning Knight posted:It shouldn't be, though. Wisconsin is the way it is due to voter suppression. I'm still really mad it was as close as it was for Evers, and Bryce should've won. Yeah, I suspect the long term analysis of the places where the polls turned out wrong is that there were a lot of people who tried to vote but were blocked for one reason or another -- lack of ID, insufficient polling machines, etc.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:29
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Paradoxish posted:The Senate results really are bad. I know a lot of people here have been papering this over by saying we never really had a shot (which is true to some degree), but that doesn't change the fact that a +2R result is just not good news. I'm also thinking that 2018 is pretty drat near peak anti-Trump and I'm not sure that we're going to do better in 2020. Combine that with the fact that it may be difficult to defend some of these house pick-ups and I'm concerned. Two years is a damned long time, especially in this administration. A lot can change
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Nov 7, 2018 16:30
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Paradoxish posted:I'm also thinking that 2018 is pretty drat near peak anti-Trump Only if the economy continues to perform at this level for the next two years.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:30
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CuddleCryptid posted:Two years is a damned long time, especially in this administration. A lot can change for the worse, of course
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Nov 7, 2018 16:30
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Chief Lizard McConnell is about to speak.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:30
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Still holding out hope that my stupid gerrymandered UT-4 will add to the good things!
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Nov 7, 2018 16:30
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Taerkar posted:Most of those initiatives have been attempts to break solid blue states into a single blue state and more red states. No, I know... I’m saying we should consider dividing blue states into more, smaller blue states. You could definitely do it with California.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:31
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I don't think trying to extrapolate from here to 2022 is very helpful or meaningful honestly. If the Democrats can drive up turnout in 2020 like they did in 2018 vs. a normal mid term, Trump gets his poo poo pushed in. Trying to look past that now is like trying to read chicken entrails to tell the future or something.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:31
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Lightning Knight posted:Oh yeah there were court cases surrounding the Voter ID laws and poo poo but I don't know what happened with that. I don't think Evers can unilaterally get rid of those without the legislature though. It looks like Democrats won the Secretary of State race, which (if it's similar to other states) gives them control over the electoral apparatus and so they may be able to make sure there's enough voting places, voter ID laws are enforced in the manner that's most fair to voting as possible, etc. So that's somewhat more hopeful. Probably also depends on who won the AG race (if there was one, maybe it's appointed by the governor instead?) as well.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:32
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Party Plane Jones posted:I'll still be doing tweet dumps which are a) unignorable because I'm a mod and people got really really irate about not being able to just skip over them which I find hilarious and b) I have time to do them not as canvassing/phonebanking is over and Patel lost by 20+ points. I can confirm that these suck and you should stop
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Nov 7, 2018 16:32
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^^ Negative, always tweet dump. sean10mm posted:I don't think trying to extrapolate from here to 2022 is very helpful or meaningful honestly. This is how I see it. It still was a +9? Vote for dems across the board, and I know that doesn't mean a whole lot, but it's not nothing. The wind is in the sails for the Ds.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:33
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evilweasel posted:Yeah this is why as much as i hated red state democratic senators, we badly needed them: 2020 is a huge inflection point and stuff like voting rights reform and PR/DC statehood are so directly tied to the viability of the Democratic party that they'd probably support those and no Republican, however 'moderate' will. If Tester and Sinema can pull out wins despite being slightly down in the count right now (I have little hope for a Nelson recount but Tester and Sinema aren't dead yet), it might be possible to do this: I think we can swing 52-48. I don't know we can swing 54-46.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:33
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Paradoxish posted:The Senate results really are bad. I know a lot of people here have been papering this over by saying we never really had a shot (which is true to some degree), but that doesn't change the fact that a +2R result is just not good news. I'm also thinking that 2018 is pretty drat near peak anti-Trump and I'm not sure that we're going to do better in 2020. Combine that with the fact that it may be difficult to defend some of these house pick-ups and I'm concerned. Agreed, but 2020 will be about trump himself, I think we might get an even bigger turnout to try to push his rear end out. He has 2 more years to enrage people against him and a probable economic downturn coming.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:33
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Harik posted:They need to check the senate. Republicans won long-term there with +3, making a lot easier for them to hold in 2020 despite having to defend 22 seats. They also managed to keep Florida for the 2020 gerrymander which is a lot of house seats for the next decade. More than NY this upcoming census. Every vacant judiciary seat is going to federalist-annointed ghouls which will skew the lower courts for at least as long as SCOTUS. On the bright side we can basically ignore Chuck loving Schumer for the indefinite future, as he has absolutely nothing to do that's not making bad press releases. Ironically since Texas has judicial elections we've now got a bunch of liberal judges in places there weren't before.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:33
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Paradoxish posted:I'm also thinking that 2018 is pretty drat near peak anti-Trump Nah, if/when the economy tanks because of his garbage policies it can go much, much lower.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:33
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These results show more than ever that the who the Democrats nominate in 2020 is going to be so important. My immediate reaction after last night, after a nanosecond of reflection, is that Beto should run. I don't know if anyone else in either party can get voters to rally to him and campaign with such energy. I would love to see loving cheeto on a debate stage with him.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:34
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evilweasel posted:Every single way I can think of requires holding the Senate and admitting some new states, or stuff even more difficult (lol at getting 3/4ths of states behind any constitutional amendment to fix the problem that small idiot states have far too much political power). Which is why being unable to take the Senate in 2020 is terrifying. Yeah I’m not really sure what to do here. The power of the senate needs to be broken, either through Constitutional channels, or through mass organization. I’m not sure what either looks like in concrete terms, but if electoralism has any future, something needs to happen.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:34
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evilweasel posted:Yeah this is why as much as i hated red state democratic senators, we badly needed them: 2020 is a huge inflection point and stuff like voting rights reform and PR/DC statehood are so directly tied to the viability of the Democratic party that they'd probably support those and no Republican, however 'moderate' will. If Tester and Sinema can pull out wins despite being slightly down in the count right now (I have little hope for a Nelson recount but Tester and Sinema aren't dead yet), it might be possible to do this: I think we can swing 52-48. I don't know we can swing 54-46. And yet much to mcmagic's horror Manchin is still Senator. big boi posted:I can confirm that these suck and you should stop I can confirm that they are awesome and that PPJ should do more.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:35
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sean10mm posted:Nah, if/when the economy tanks because of his garbage policies it can go much, much lower. Yeah, why would you assume that Trump will get more popular? He might very well lose a lot of support and his brain degradation may become (even more) obvious. Nothing is certain
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Nov 7, 2018 16:35
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sean10mm posted:I don't think trying to extrapolate from here to 2022 is very helpful or meaningful honestly.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:35
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Zwabu posted:These results show more than ever that the who the Democrats nominate in 2020 is going to be so important. Yeah Beto and gillum can run now. So there is a positive.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:35
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big boi posted:I can confirm that these suck and you should stop Seriously, just make a Twitter account that does the PPJ tweetdump and link anyone who's interested in it to that instead, they clog up the thread and actively disrupt discussion. If you want nothing but Tweets, go on Twitter, this shouldn't be a controversial thing to say.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:35
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sean10mm posted:I don't think trying to extrapolate from here to 2022 is very helpful or meaningful honestly. My extrapolation to 2022 isn't really extrapolating from these races at all. It's basically this: Democrats need to win in 2020. If they don't, that's a disaster and I don't know how much I care about 2022 anymore. But let's assume they win in 2020, and keep the House. My assumption for 2022 is that it will suffer from the usual midterm where the party holding the Presidency doesn't do well. My fear is that will be compounded by the inability of a Democratic president to do anything: it's hard to get people to turn out for midterms anyway. How do you get them to turn out when you got them to elect someone from your party as President, and that President got nothing done? Through no fault of their own, sure - but that hasn't been that useful an electoral argument, historically speaking.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:36
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