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haveblue posted:It also means they control appropriations and budget, so the wall is 100% dead now. That is pretty big since iirc that is a power exclusive to the House and not the Senate. Does it allow adjustments to funding of ongoing projects?
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Nov 7, 2018 17:48
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So I'm going to start playing with a 2020 electoral map. Start with the default map of the 2016 election: https://www.270towin.com/. Donald Trump won by 306-232. This is the baseline: to beat Trump you need to flip states he won, while losing none he lost (unless you flip a lot more that he won). Based on last night's elections, there's two big ones that should be doable: PA and MI. That gets you a nearly tied race, 270-268: https://www.270towin.com/maps/K1OXn Now, you can tie the race by flipping ME-02. That gets you 269-269, and the House votes. However based on how the House votes (each state delegation gets one vote, not each rep) I believe Trump wins the tie. So we can ignore this and assume that any map that doesn't give the Dem 270 votes means Trump wins. So that means that Dems need to flip one of the following, arranged based on how likely they are: Most likely: Wisconsin, North Carolina. Both have elected Democratic governors, but barely, but went for Trump. WI elected a Democratic governor this year; I need to add up the NC House votes to see who "won" election day 2018. If Dems didn't win it, that's not great. If they did, that's pretty good. I am not saying either of these are likely - I am nowhere near confident Democrats can pull it off in either state. But these are the two best targets I see. Less likely: Arizona, Iowa, Florida. Democrats fell short in each of these states, but it's possible that they could pull it off in 2020. But if they couldn't do it this year, that's really worrying. Arizona may continue to trend blue, and the impression I got was the Senate candidate for Democrats wasn't the best and was less Trumpy than usual for Republicans, so there's some hope. Iowa is getting crushed by tariffs, but it's still a rural state which means it's a trumpian hellhole, and they just elected a Republican governor. Florida just voted for two terrible people; sure, they enfranchised felons so the electorate will change a little, but Republicans have two years to try to "fix" that. I guess someone will mention these: Georgia, I guess? Abrams put up a strong showing but lost, and I don't see how you win Georgia without winning other states first so that it's just trying to run up the score. I don't see any others.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:48
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https://twitter.com/jenyamato/status/1060210196478390275
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Nov 7, 2018 17:48
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Sydin posted:Looks like Tester is going to just barely hold on, he's up ~2,000 votes with 99% reporting. Probably goes to a recount with so slim a margin though: Also, MT electorate is small enough that I'm pretty sure a 2k lead is enough for a +0.5% margin, so it it holds there might not be a recount.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:48
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Nemo Somen posted:That is pretty big since iirc that is a power exclusive to the House and not the Senate. Does it allow adjustments to funding of ongoing projects? I would hardly call The Wall "ongoing"
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Nov 7, 2018 17:49
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Brb, going to Canada and hiding in one of those
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Nov 7, 2018 17:49
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exploded mummy posted:is there a source on this, it's not in the text of the amendment itself. this rapidly became a meme to poo poo on this victory as soon as a single person posted it, on the premise that the vast majority of ex-felons haven't paid court-ordered legal fees which i see absolutely no data to support
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Nov 7, 2018 17:49
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Tibalt posted:Lol Beto and Gillum aren't running. Fritz Coldcockin posted:Karen Handel just went down in the GA-06, not sure if anyone beat me to that.  Inferior Third Season posted:My money is on Jeff Sessions getting canned in the next few days/weeks, and him running for his old seat again in 2020. Sessions has argued that he didn't commit perjury or lie on his disclosures because the meetings he had were in his capacity as a senator and chairman, not as a Trump booster or staffer. His problem is that executive privilege cannot be invoked to block congressional investigations into those meetings and interactions now. And its legislative counterpart is also born of the separation of powers... so it also cannot be invoked to block congressional investigations. I, uh, don't expect Schiff and Cummings to play nicely with Jeff.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:50
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Mahoning posted:I don't think the bolded part is really true. Lol please tell me more about how O'Rourke getting a bunch of Dem and DSA people elected statewide and going +14 from the last Texas Senate election means leftism is a lost cause Oh it's because people are shortsighted idiots who think only the federal government ever matters
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Nov 7, 2018 17:50
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Even if you downgrade it to "a path to regaining your vote opened up where there was no path before" that's a pretty big win.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:50
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https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/1060212803741642752
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Nov 7, 2018 17:51
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1060206366541762560 If Sinema pulls it off, I'll feel way better going into 2020
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Nov 7, 2018 17:51
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Nemo Somen posted:That is pretty big since iirc that is a power exclusive to the House and not the Senate. Does it allow adjustments to funding of ongoing projects? Most things are funded on a year to year basis. As a practical matter the requirement appropriations bills originate in the House is meaningless, all that matters is that you need both to agree. I actually think that what will happen with the Wall is that we're headed for a massive shutdown. Probably in the lame duck. I don't know what's going to happen with that.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:51
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1060206366541762560 Thanks, fingers crossed.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:52
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evilweasel posted:So I'm going to start playing with a 2020 electoral map. Iowa threw out most of their Republican CD sans King, so you might be understating the chances
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Nov 7, 2018 17:52
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CuddleCryptid posted:I would hardly call The Wall "ongoing" I was presuming that Congress would try to fund the wall before the new Congress gets sworn in.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:52
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So... the new head of the committee that could investigate Trump's taxes and financial dealings is Maxine Waters. Well, ain't that just a shame.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:52
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How different will the 2020 demographics be from 2016?
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Nov 7, 2018 17:52
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corn in the bible posted:Lol please tell me more about how O'Rourke getting a bunch of Dem and DSA people elected statewide and going +14 from the last Texas Senate election means leftism is a lost cause Also that Beto was leftist except compared to Texas. If he were a candidate in most other senate races he would be fairly unremarkable except for his age.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:52
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Harik posted:Also that Beto was leftist except compared to Texas. If he were a candidate in most other senate races he would be fairly unremarkable except for his age. His support for M4A makes him progressive by almost any state's standard.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:53
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It also helps to contextualize this election as a couple of paragraphs in a 2120 history text book in a chapter titled "Antebellum Politics" 
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Nov 7, 2018 17:54
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haveblue posted:Even if you downgrade it to "a path to regaining your vote opened up where there was no path before" that's a pretty big win. there was a path before, but it was like running the 1904 Olympic marathon
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Nov 7, 2018 17:54
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big mood.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:55
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If there's an equal turnout and Trump wins 2020 while being -7 to -9 in the popular vote there's going to be riots. Not saying your analysis is wrong weasel but if that comes to pass, I know I'd be out on the streets.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:55
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sean10mm posted:This severely understates what happened. No new law at all can be passed without the approval of the House. It is also where all spending and revenue legislation originates. The Democrats can 100% kill ANY proposed GOP legislation now. This part specifically is overstated. Any bill that includes spending and revenue language must originate in the House, but the Senate figured out a workaround decades ago and these days they just amend HR 201 Post Office Naming Bill #454, hollowing it out and turning it into effectively the Buy One Billion Tanks Bill. Since the bill itself originated in the House despite not containing any of the funding language at the time, it still counts. Of course, the Dems can still kill it all by not voting for the bill when it comes back from the Senate with all the tank-buying language bolted on.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:55
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Tibalt posted:It also helps to contextualize this election as a couple of paragraphs in a 2120 history text book That textbook is just going to be the words "WORSHIP THE HUMUNGUS" over and over for 400 pages.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:55
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Ohio might be redlocked unless something major happens now, mainly if tarriffs or healthcare a toons start destroying the active parts of the economy. Least sherrod won 
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Nov 7, 2018 17:55
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exploded mummy posted:there was a path before, but it was like running the 1904 Olympic marathon go off path drunk and take a nap in someone's rose garden?
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Nov 7, 2018 17:56
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exploded mummy posted:there was a path before, but it was like running the 1904 Olympic marathon also in this analogy, the judge who decides whether you finished asks you if you voted for him last election as the main determining factor
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Nov 7, 2018 17:56
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Wasn't Trump supposed to do a speech or something by now?
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Nov 7, 2018 17:56
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evilweasel posted:So I'm going to start playing with a 2020 electoral map. Dems won Iowa last night pretty comfortably if you add up the House votes. By around 49,000 votes over Republicans, and by around 10,000 votes if you give all the other parties' votes to the GOP.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:56
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Help me understand something, as someone who is largely clueless about politics. Just how much impact does the vast red majority in the Senate actually have? Legislation needs to pass through the House before it goes to the Senate, correct? So with a pronounced democrat majority in the House, they can obstruct legislation in Congress just as badly as republicans did during Obama's terms, correct? How much does that majority matter if legislation is much less likely to even make it to them to begin with?
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Nov 7, 2018 17:57
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:go off path drunk and take a nap in someone's rose garden? or get chased by rabid dogs, collapse with severe dust inhalation to the point of asphyxiation, or win because some dude started eating rat poison while the white guy gets in a car and drives to the stadium instead
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Nov 7, 2018 17:57
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exploded mummy posted:Iowa threw out most of their Republican CD sans King, so you might be understating the chances Yeah, but they elected a Republican governor. I think that's more meaningful than the House races...though I see that Dems seem to have gotten more House votes than Republicans did. Curious, perhaps the governor race was more local and so it is more in play nationally than I thought.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:57
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exploded mummy posted:there was a path before, but it was like running the 1904 Olympic marathon that's a lot of strychnine usage then
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Nov 7, 2018 17:57
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Uh, the gerrymandering very clearly broke in the House, I don't know where you're getting that it didn't. It's a little hard to explain, but basically gerrymandering makes state representation sticky, so even as vote totals change for a party, their representation doesn't change much. However at a certain break the gerrymander fails, and then representation changes rapidly with only relatively small additional shifts in the margin.  the stickyness is called "responsiveness," with more gerrymandered states being less responsive. In North Carolina Democrats won three and 1 race is almost tied and still undecided. Democrats made it to right below the point where the gerrymander would break, but couldn't quite push to the point where races start rapidly flipping. I don't have a similar map for South Carolina but I suspect the story is the same. Democrats pushed right up to point where the weakest gerrymanders started failing, but didn't quite push past the margin at which they would fail en masse.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:58
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:His support for M4A makes him progressive by almost any state's standard. quote:Healthcare is a moral question that transcends politics – it is a basic human right, not a privilege. 4.3 million Texans – including over 600,000 children – can’t see a doctor, or when they do, they’re so sick they have no choice but to go to the Emergency Room where the cost will be many times more expensive and the outcome will be worse. * Texas needs to stop rejecting the Obama medicare expansion * Sure, change something about healthcare and I'll go for it but I have no real preference. His platform is about average for dems. M4A if it polls well enough and a bill is in front of him, but don't expect Beto to be the one sponsoring it.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:58
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CascadeBeta posted:Dems had a minimum +7 probably +9 popular vote and Trump won because he won 3 states by 30k votes total. Beto nearly won in Texas with a 15 point swing against Cruz. You don't know what you're talking about. None of those things really changes anything I said.... Florida and Ohio are still holding the Trumpist line and Wisconsin is 50-50.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:59
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Blitz7x posted:I literally can't believe this guy is my new representative. He's more cartoony than the bigfoot porn guy Holy poo poo you elected Snake Plissken, cool!
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Nov 7, 2018 17:59
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Framboise posted:Help me understand something, as someone who is largely clueless about politics. For legislation, not at all. That's one huge win from last night-- no more tax cuts for the rich, no more gutting social services legislatively. For appointments to executive and judicial posts, all that's changed is they got ever so slightly easier for Trump, but there was already next to no chance the Senate blocked any of his appointments, so that becoming no chance whatsoever is more of a moral gut punch than a practical change.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:00
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