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If we come out of last night with 37 seats in the House and “only” losing 2 seats in the Senate then sorry, it was a legit Wave. https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1060360046155087872
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Nov 8, 2018 04:26
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Is the Arizona Senate race still realistically too close to call? I saw a 17,000 vote advantage for the Republican, but I don't know how current that is.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:26
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Brony Car posted:Is the Arizona Senate race still realistically too close to call? I saw a 17,000 vote advantage for the Republican, but I don't know how current that is. There’s still hundreds of thousands of votes to count. Not sure if they’re provisional or absentee ballots or what but supposedly they’re from Dem areas so things look hopeful for Sinema.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:27
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Brony Car posted:Is the Arizona Senate race still realistically too close to call? I saw a 17,000 vote advantage for the Republican, but I don't know how current that is. Last I heard we won't have any significant number updates until 5pm local time tomorrow. That'll be when they release a wave of the outstanding ballot count.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:28
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Polybius91 posted:I mentioned to someone I'd gone canvassing and donated money to close races this year. They told me I'd wasted my time and that I was blinded by Cold War propaganda for believing there was any point to participating in American democracy, then said that I was delusional for thinking I could "prevent the upcoming civil war." When I asked what they'd done to advance left wing causes, they didn't answer, nor at any point did they give me any specifics about what I should actually be doing instead. But enough about C-SPAM...
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Nov 8, 2018 04:28
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Brony Car posted:Is the Arizona Senate race still realistically too close to call? I saw a 17,000 vote advantage for the Republican, but I don't know how current that is. There’s like 800k votes left
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Nov 8, 2018 04:28
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:If we come out of last night with 37 seats in the House and “only” losing 2 seats in the Senate then sorry, it was a legit Wave. its because this place is full of cynical grognards(like me). we could have magicaly won all 100 seats in the senate because calvinball and this thread would still be pissed. I am happy with how we did and i am glad trump is loving shook.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:29
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Polybius91 posted:When I asked what they'd done to advance left wing causes, they didn't answer Because it takes a long, long time to explain the finer nuances of "Be on the internet a lot" and "discuss which of the high profile technical jobs you'll get as a post-revolution labor appointment"
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Nov 8, 2018 04:30
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Brony Car posted:Is the Arizona Senate race still realistically too close to call? I saw a 17,000 vote advantage for the Republican, but I don't know how current that is.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:31
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FWIW Nate Silver is projecting Sinema to pull it out in AZ.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:33
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Retro42 posted:It baffles me that Baldwin won by ~11% and Evers only won by ~1.2%. I mean, I know it’s Wisconsin(born there) but how do you vote a Baldwin/Walker ticket?! Both incumbents...probably low information voters voting for the two people whose names they recognized.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:33
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I just wish I could trust that WA-08 was done. I can't trust that that tumor of a gerrymander isn't going to cause something bad to happen.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:34
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Tibalt posted:
Thanks Vinnie. Anyway, reminder of the key points from my last post: quote:What's up for election, 2020: evilweasel posted:Wisconsin is much more important than Ohio. If Dems take back Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania while losing Ohio (and don't lose any Clinton states) they win and that's their easiest path to the White House. So let's discuss Senate and Governor races! Senate Elections Most of this is repeated from the midterm thread, so feel free to skip this if you read that post. Most important than individual senators is controlling the Senate leadership. In addition to passing laws and budgets with the House, the Senate has a unique role of confirming presidential nominees. Presidential nominations cover a wide range of positions in the Executive and Judicial branch - everything from ambassadors, to Attorney General, to district judges, to the Supreme Court Justices. Being the Senate Majority Leader basically gives you a soft veto over those nominees - don't like a nominee? Don't hold a vote. Each state has 2 senators, and senators serve 6 year terms. As a result, a third of the Senate is up for each election. In addition, winning control of the Senate requires defending Democratic seats and flipping Republican seats. As a result, parties have "good" and "bad" maps - good maps have lots of Senate seats that can be flipped in your favor, while bad maps have a lot of Senate seats you need to defend. 2020 is a Class 2 year. Currently, that class is split as follows: 12 Democrat, 21 Republican. You also got one special election in Arizona, currently held by a Republican. But just because a seat is up for election doesn't mean anyone is seriously running for it. How many are competitive? The Republicans will have to hold seats in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Kentucky, Montana and North Carolina. The Democrats will need to defend Alabama and New Hampshire. As you all saw with 2018, two years can be a hell of a long time. As it stands today, I would say that Alabama is a likely Republican pick-up. So, assuming that the Democrats defend New Hampshire, Democrats still need to pick up 5 seats to control the Senate (assuming a Democratic Vice-President). Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Cory Gardner (R-CO), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) would be my early bets for vulnerable seats. After that... Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has attracted a lot of negative attention, and the Republican party seems to be waning in Kentucky. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and David Perdue (R-GA) could also be on the chopping block. As a brief tangent. Look at those seats, notice anything? None of those seats are obvious seats the Democrats "should" win. Here's my huge issue with some posters in this thread - the Dems have been good. They have been amazing at competing in every competitive Senate election, every year. And as a result, you get this situation where, because the Democrats couldn't defend North Dakota and couldn't flip loving Tennessee, they need to run the tables on states like Arizona and North Carolina. This is why Senators like Manchin are so drat important. Unhappy with how Gorsuch has voted? Apprehensive about Kavanaugh? You need Manchin, you wanted Bredesen, and you're praying for someone who can compete in Kentucky, or Georgia, or Iowa. Let's just say that you're not going to get a Cory Booker in Iowa. There just isn't a path for Senate control that doesn't rely on states that voted (and will vote) for Trump. But the local politicians in those states can theoretically outperform the Presidential candidate. Point is, winning 4 seats in 2020 is going to be a real uphill battle. But unlike the 2018 map, the Democrats will be the ones in an aggressive position where they're attacking vulnerable Republican seats and forcing Mitch to defend his majority. I wouldn't put money on a Democratic Senate in 2020, but I'd much rather be in their shoes than trying to defend 8 or 9 seats. Add in the Trump Factor and you've got a potentially dramatic night ahead. Governor Elections There are 11 states with Governor elections in 2020, 4 held by Democrats: DE, MT, NC, WA and 7 held by Republicans: IN, MO, NH, ND, UT, VT, WV Every incumbent besides Steve Bullock (D-MT) is eligible for re-election, although Gary Herbert (R-UT) has announced his retirement. Honestly, every state is so weird, and the power invested in the governor in each state is so different, and the race in each state is going to be so uniquely local that it's impossible to talk about generalities. Most the governors were first elected in 2016. Since I'm planning to talk about each state's races in detail, I'll probably go into the governor's race there. Generally, though, making or breaking trifectas at the state level won't be as important in 2020, because the redistricting I mentioned in the House of Representatives will have already happened. That said, Roy Cooper (R-NC) will be important. Which state do people want me to discuss first?
Colorado (Senate seat, potential swing state) New Hampshire (Senate seat, governor, potential swing state) Or demand another state if you'd like, I'll probably go through all of them until I either get banned or get bored.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:34
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:FWIW Nate Silver is projecting Sinema to pull it out in AZ. Has he talked about his ridiculous loving live model yet? That poo poo was almost negligent.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:34
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https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1060374680991883265 'Clearly documented.' 
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Nov 8, 2018 04:35
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Retro42 posted:It baffles me that Baldwin won by ~11% and Evers only won by ~1.2%. I mean, I know it’s Wisconsin(born there) but how do you vote a Baldwin/Walker ticket?! Your guess is as good as mine! 
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Nov 8, 2018 04:35
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:FWIW Nate Silver is projecting Sinema to pull it out in AZ. That's fantastic if true. That means we effectively gained 2 but lost 4 right? Unless I am missing one.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:37
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TulliusCicero posted:That's fantastic if true. That means we effectively gained 2 but lost 4 right? Unless I am missing one. Yes, it would be a net loss of 2 seats.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:37
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Social Studies 3rd Period posted:https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1060374680991883265 lol. i love how deep we are in hellworld.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:38
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So what's the TL;DR of what's going on in Georgia and whether there will be a runoff?
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Nov 8, 2018 04:39
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I hope the rumors that Sanders is bailing before the new Congressional term are true. I’m just tired of it.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:40
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TulliusCicero posted:That's fantastic if true. That means we effectively gained 2 but lost 4 right? Unless I am missing one. Gained NV and AZ, lost FL, ND, MO, IN
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Nov 8, 2018 04:40
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Sab0921 posted:Gained NV and AZ, lost FL, ND, MO, IN Nelson is the killer. Especially by 30,000 votes. At least the others were blowouts that won’t keep you up at night.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:41
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:it was a legit Wave. A terrific wave. We have the best waves.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:41
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TulliusCicero posted:That's fantastic if true. That means we effectively gained 2 but lost 4 right? Unless I am missing one. So Dems either need to pick up 5 senators in 2020, or 4 and have the vice president basically live in the capitol. Doable.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:41
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TulliusCicero posted:That's fantastic if true. That means we effectively gained 2 but lost 4 right? Unless I am missing one. Yeah, afaik, the flips are: - Dem to GOP: MO (McCaskill), FL (Nelson), ND (Heitkamp), IN (Donnely) - GOP to Dem: NV (Rosen > Heller), possibly AZ (Sinema > McSally) So -2 isn't great, but way less catastrophic than -4. e: beaten
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Nov 8, 2018 04:41
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So the GOP traded 2 Senate seats for the entire House? And McConnell is trying to spin that as a victory? Quite the victory there Mitch!  Isn't Nelson going to a recount? Lol if Nelson wins and the GOP picked up a single seat.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:42
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If Hillary were President we would have lost seats in the House and had like a net -6 seats in the Senate. So there’s that.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:42
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If the media had a shred of courage they would boycott anything SHS has anything to do with until she resigns and Acosta is reinstated.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:42
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Mahoning posted:What exactly makes him “conservative”? Or are you just being hyperbolic? He was a Manchin-style pro-union conservative for over a decade, and suddenly started rapidly turning left over the last couple of years, likely due to his own leadership ambitions and the total decimation of the conservative Dems in the House. Like, "founding member of the Medicare for All Caucus" sounds great, but the Medicare For All Caucus has 70 founding members and was founded a whopping three and a half months ago.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:44
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Social Studies 3rd Period posted:https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1060374680991883265 Well yeah, that weird lady just came up out of nowhere and started harassing that guy.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:44
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What’s this I hear about Nelson and Gillum not being technically out yet?
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Nov 8, 2018 04:44
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TulliusCicero posted:So the GOP traded 2 Senate seats for the entire House? And McConnell is trying to spin that as a victory?
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Nov 8, 2018 04:44
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Social Studies 3rd Period posted:https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1060374680991883265 The thing is that it doesn't matter. Only the dumbest of the dumb on the right actually believes he did anything to her, but the narrative is there and the Trumpkins will cling to it until their final, oxygen-starved breath.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:44
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Social Studies 3rd Period posted:https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1060374680991883265 This is the weirdest loving thing.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:44
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Social Studies 3rd Period posted:https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1060374680991883265 I don't get what I'm supposed to be seeing here. She's taking his microphone?
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Nov 8, 2018 04:45
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Dapper_Swindler posted:lol. i love how deep we are in hellworld. https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1060334166083059712 Fortunately that's not the sound of a lot of love and kisses being twitted to his orange fecal mass in the background of WH audio. Move on, the next thing is at hand.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:45
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Tibalt posted:It likely puts the Senate out of Democratic hands until 2022 at the earliest.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:46
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:FWIW Nate Silver is projecting Sinema to pull it out in AZ. The same Nate Silver who predicted the odds of a Democratic House at 51% and surrendered West Point to the hated British?
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Nov 8, 2018 04:46
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:What’s this I hear about Nelson and Gillum not being technically out yet? Gillum is toast, but if Nelson closes the gap just a bit more and gets within .25% (currently 0.4%) then we go to a Hand Recount, and the tiniest chance emerges. However, most likely is that this merely goes to Machine Recount, and Nelson is almost certainly hosed.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:46
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