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evilweasel posted:I do not believe that Democrats will move to impeach Trump unless they have evidence strongly enough that refusing to vote to convict will backfire on Republicans. By the way, did you know Thom Tillis received help from Cambridge Analytica?
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Nov 8, 2018 17:03
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Kimsemus posted:While I agree you *can* be impeached for a lot of things, being impeached, a la Clinton, and being removed from office, or convicted, are different. Impeachment is a legislative process. I think an impeachment process could matter even if it doesn't involve removal from office. It's a gamble though and the first step should be investigations.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:03
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evilweasel posted:I do not believe that Democrats will move to impeach Trump unless they have evidence strongly enough that refusing to vote to convict will backfire on Republicans. If they have that evidence, I think they'll impeach even if they know that Republicans won't convict. But I think that their end game is to put all of this evidence into the public domain by 2020 and hope the American people make the right decision that time. Yeah, at this point, an impeachment process would be about tarnishing the reputation of the Republican Party for refusing to break ties with a President more bumblingly corrupt than Nixon. Whether it's worth the circus of impeachment proceedings is up to how damning the evidence uncovered by the investigations is, or how obvious obstruction of justice becomes.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:03
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evilweasel posted:there's not a sacrifice of "other people's liberties" because kavanaugh was getting confirmed. we got the end, manchin's seat is still in democratic hands. again: you can make a moral argument, and that's a strong argument. stupidly arguing about observable facts that requires you to make such stunningly stupid arguments as redefining "decisive vote" into meaning "any vote for something that passed" and claiming that winning a six year senate seat is meaningless if you do not also take the senate that year. it is the funniest goddamned thing that the only thing in politics that personally offends evilweasel is the suggestion "act like you give a poo poo" coming from one of the uppity poors how dare they speak that way to him.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:04
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I thought the GA governor race was already going to a runoff? Isn’t Kemp stepping down as SOS good?
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Nov 8, 2018 17:04
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I think an impeachment process could matter even if it doesn't involve removal from office. It's a gamble though and the first step should be investigations. I think an impeachment process, much like the Kavanaugh confirmation, will galvanize his supporters as much as it will his detractors.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:04
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Kimsemus posted:While I agree you *can* be impeached for a lot of things, being impeached, a la Clinton, and being removed from office, or convicted, are different. Impeachment is a legislative process. You can imagine a scenario where his impeachment would matter even if he was not removed from office, because the evidence presented makes it manifestly obvious he's guilty and he should be removed from office, and by forcing Senate Republicans to either snub their base and vote to convict or snub the vast majority (who we are assuming, for argument's sake, exist) of people including a sizable minority of Republicans who believe he is guilty and should be removed from office by voting to aquit. I have serious doubts that, given the polarization of the Republican base, such evidence could exist. I'm not sure what it would be. I think that's why the basic Democratic strategy is going to be shine a whole lot of bright lights around, see what scuttles out, make that public, and see what the reaction is. If something is that bad, then maybe they go for it. Otherwise, hope it makes a difference in 2020.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:04
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pocket pool posted:I thought the GA governor race was already going to a runoff? Isn’t Kemp stepping down as SOS good? He's stepping down to become governor, meaning he considers the election issue settled in his favor.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:05
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Kimsemus posted:While I agree you *can* be impeached for a lot of things, being impeached, a la Clinton, and being removed from office, or convicted, are different. Impeachment is a legislative process. That makes your argument even more dumb because you either don't know that the gop has a senate majority, or that it isn't clear that they won't remove him from office for any reason short of murder on national tv
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Nov 8, 2018 17:05
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I understand why trump thread existed now. 2 day in and it's manchinchat and pelosibad. Help us chris christie. You're our only hope.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:05
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I think an impeachment process could matter even if it doesn't involve removal from office. It's a gamble though and the first step should be investigations. Politically the better play is to spend the next 2 years getting every bit of info into the public domain they can and THEN run on impeachment/etc(ie: vote him out before he gets kicked out) in 2020.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:05
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friendbot2000 posted:You are aware that Trump has never had the full force of the FBI investigating him right? Like, it has mostly been civil litigation, not criminal investigation. His playbook isn't really that relevant here and for the record, Nixon tried that strategy. Didn't really work out so well for him. even aside from the mueller thing, several states are already taking a swing at him new york is right now, as we speak, going through the process to get the Trump Foundation dissolved for breaking basically every regulation known to man re: charitable nonprofits and the trump organization is in the crosshairs for some other stuff besides and don't forget the very interesting emoluments clause lawsuits!
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Nov 8, 2018 17:06
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evilweasel posted:You can imagine a scenario where his impeachment would matter even if he was not removed from office, because the evidence presented makes it manifestly obvious he's guilty and he should be removed from office, and by forcing Senate Republicans to either snub their base and vote to convict or snub the vast majority (who we are assuming, for argument's sake, exist) of people including a sizable minority of Republicans who believe he is guilty and should be removed from office by voting to aquit. This is my vote as the most likely scenario Just stop posting.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:06
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pocket pool posted:I thought the GA governor race was already going to a runoff? Isn’t Kemp stepping down as SOS good? It is not currently going to a runoff, because in the current vote count he has more than 50%. There is zero chance Abrams can pull in enough votes to pull ahead when all provisionals are counted; but her hope is to get enough that he drops below 50%. There were false reports that it was definitely going to a runoff yesterday. Those were not true.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:06
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Mrs. Dash posted:Cruz is extremely unpopular in texas, even among republicans. Beto was campaigning like a madman in texas. Republicans in texas will probably still like trump more in 2020 than they like cruz and the dem nominee isn't going to be campaigning in texas every day like beto did Sure, but we're talking about the politics within the state. I don't have any dream of Texas going majority blue for a good long while (though if it did, my god, the outcome would be astounding--even our Supreme Court is elected) but certainly it can't hurt to have less solid red politics in the courts because, you know, I have to live here.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:07
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Chuds do not care that he obstructed and actually think collusion is cool
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Nov 8, 2018 17:07
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:it is the funniest goddamned thing that the only thing in politics that personally offends evilweasel is the suggestion "act like you give a poo poo" coming from one of the uppity poors evilweasel's posting is a useful diagnostic tool because it is always 180 degrees off of whatever the morally correct stance is.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:07
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Retro42 posted:Politically the better play is to spend the next 2 years getting every bit of info into the public domain they can and THEN run on impeachment/etc(ie: vote him out before he gets kicked out) in 2020. Realistically I do not think you can run on impeaching a president who is running for re-election. If the evidence is public and yet the public re-elects him, the public made their decision: it would be both anti-democratic to remove him anyway, and backfire politically.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:08
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It got lost in the shuffle, but it looks like Fartenberry won re-election. If I were a rep I'd make sure to put a whoopie cushion on his chair every single day.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:08
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Oh yeah and also if the dems flip some school board seats next election then we'll have suddenly improved education in like half of the country
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Nov 8, 2018 17:08
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I think an impeachment process could matter even if it doesn't involve removal from office. It's a gamble though and the first step should be investigations. I agree with this. People seem to weirdly think Clinton "won" his whole scandal and impeachment saga because he kept his job, but it effectively rendered him a lame duck very early in his second term. The minute the word "Lewinsky" hit and Clinton committed the Democrats to defending the lie, any hope of the Democrats taking back either house in 1998 was gone, and it gave Bush a pretty sizable opening in 2000. Yeah, Newt hosed himself into the woods with the whole thing, but other than that I don't see the downside to the GOP for how it went down nor do I see any fruits of victory for the Dems.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:09
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evilweasel posted:Realistically I do not think you can run on impeaching a president who is running for re-election. If the evidence is public and yet the public re-elects him, the public made their decision: it would be both anti-democratic to remove him anyway, and backfire politically. Yes you can, because part of the impeachment process is an investigation. It won't matter though because Trump is going to ignore it and the Senate won't convict.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:10
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It seems to me that some of the best performances of the night were in invisible places--between the local positions and state legislatures, judgeships, and the ballot initiatives, the forces of good won a great deal Tuesday night.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:10
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I think one of the overlooked tragedies of this election was sending a hack like Marsha Blackburn back to the Senate. Phil Bredsen is a Democrat in a very red state, but was well liked and very middle of the road. Definitely could have seen some positive, bipartisan movement with him in the Senate, but alas.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:10
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Jesus, that's just heart breaking. I wanna give that poor guy a hug  .
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Nov 8, 2018 17:10
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Tibalt posted:Any NC goons want to confirm something for me? It appears based on local news articles that Roy Cooper is moderately popular in NC despite his ongoing battles with the legislature. Would that be a fair assessment? He's been disappointing to most of my liberal / progressive friends. That said, there really isn't that much he could actually do and so it's hard to evaluate him. I think the ratfucking by republicans has definitely improved his image.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:11
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evilweasel posted:there's not a sacrifice of "other people's liberties" because kavanaugh was getting confirmed. we got the end, manchin's seat is still in democratic hands. again: you can make a moral argument, and that's a strong argument. stupidly arguing about observable facts that requires you to make such stunningly stupid arguments as redefining "decisive vote" into meaning "any vote for something that passed" and claiming that winning a six year senate seat is meaningless if you do not also take the senate that year. That's enough you two.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:11
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Either ya’ll stop posting about posters or soon you are going to be speaking your miseries to a crab and a pile of coconuts on probation island.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:11
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Fart Amplifier posted:Yes you can, because part of the impeachment process is an investigation. It won't matter though because Trump is going to ignore it and the Senate won't convict. Again, England had a whole civil war over this.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:12
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How many Senate races are still undetermined? Looks like Florida will definitely be recounted.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:12
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Lord Wexia posted:I read somewhere else (forget where now) that those were wrapped up and in storage so that they could be investigated as potentially faulty machines that mis-record votes. So same result - longer poll lines, and same reason - voter disenfranchisement, but slightly different minutiae than it initially seems. https://politics.myajc.com/news/sta...2FsEAKESx42TYM/
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Nov 8, 2018 17:12
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Fart Amplifier posted:Yes you can, because part of the impeachment process is an investigation. It won't matter though because Trump is going to ignore it and the Senate won't convict. The post I was responding to suggested that Democrats would be running, in 2020, on a promise to impeach Trump if they (and he) won in 2020. They're gonna do the investigation this year and next. Either they have enough to pull the trigger this year or next, or they use it to try to persuade the public not to re-elect him. If he gets re-elected, Dems keep the House, but they find something new after 2020, maybe it would make sense. But it makes no sense to run on impeaching him in 2020 based on information they will, presumably, have made public.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:12
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Tibalt posted:Any NC goons want to confirm something for me? It appears based on local news articles that Roy Cooper is moderately popular in NC despite his ongoing battles with the legislature. Would that be a fair assessment? I've only heard occasional, generic grumblings about him being a Democrat, but usually he's a non-entity. So I think that's a yes. Nobody seems to dislike him for specific reasons, just the party he belongs to.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:13
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Fart Amplifier posted:Yes you can, because part of the impeachment process is an investigation. It won't matter though because Trump is going to ignore it and the Senate won't convict. That's the kicker. IF (big if) the Dems can successfully put out the message that impeachment dies in the Senate, running on it against Trump/etc in 2020 is a good play.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:13
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evilweasel posted:The post I was responding to suggested that Democrats would be running, in 2020, on a promise to impeach Trump if they (and he) won in 2020. They're gonna do the investigation this year and next. Either they have enough to pull the trigger this year or next, or they use it to try to persuade the public not to re-elect him. Yeah, impeachment is a midterm message, not a Presidential year message.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:13
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I don't really think the Dems will keep the house in 2020 but I guess we'll wait and see
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Nov 8, 2018 17:13
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HappyHippo posted:How many Senate races are still undetermined? Looks like Florida will definitely be recounted. Florida is "undetermined" but can be safely assumed to have a 90% or greater chance of going R. Arizona is genuinely undetermined and could go either way.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:13
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Tibalt posted:You can't just ignore a Congressional investigation. The Senate investigates, and please explain to me what happens if he ignores it.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:13
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Retro42 posted:That's the kicker. IF (big if) the Dems can successfully put out the message that impeachment dies in the Senate, running on it against Trump/etc in 2020 is a good play. Maybe that'll be the difference, because currently running against Trump has not been a winning strategy.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:14
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Tibalt posted:Considering the known facts about the Trump Tower meeting, this feels like a safe assumption. Trump could be caught on tape chanting death to America between giving sloppy blowjobs to Putin and the senate would never convict so yeah I doubt that It might turn out the dem base and people that don't vote, though
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Nov 8, 2018 17:14
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