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If Sinema pulls it out, the Democrats really didn't have too bad a night in the Senate. It seems plausible with the number of ballots still outstanding. Even a Nelson win might be possible? I know you almost never win a recount, but I still remember Al Franken winning his first Senate race basically in the courts.
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Nov 8, 2018 18:19
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PostNouveau posted:If Sinema pulls it out, the Democrats really didn't have too bad a night in the Senate. It seems plausible with the number of ballots still outstanding. Not sure if there's any reason to believe Nelson has a meaningful shot at this point.
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Nov 8, 2018 18:27
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Vox Nihili posted:Not sure if there's any reason to believe Nelson has a meaningful shot at this point. There's no Waukesha county Florida, but there certainly is a Dixie county and a Lee county.
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Nov 8, 2018 18:29
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FAUXTON posted:but there certainly is a Dixie county and a Lee county. 
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Nov 8, 2018 18:31
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PostNouveau posted:If Sinema pulls it out, the Democrats really didn't have too bad a night in the Senate. It seems plausible with the number of ballots still outstanding. Yeah this plus tester means it wasn't a total Senate wipeout
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Nov 8, 2018 18:32
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There's also a (John C) Calhoun county. Brooksville (as in Preston Brooks) is the seat of Hernando county. The taxonomic history of Florida is certainly an, uh, economically anxious one.
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Nov 8, 2018 18:35
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Minus any weirdness with California still counting stuff exactly how many seats did the Dems take in the House? I remember the most likely number predicted was ~35?
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Nov 8, 2018 18:35
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Vox Nihili posted:Not sure if there's any reason to believe Nelson has a meaningful shot at this point. His campaign is making the usual noise in a tight one about provisional ballots and overseas ballots. It might draw close enough for a recount. 
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Nov 8, 2018 18:36
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RedneckwithGuns posted:Minus any weirdness with California still counting stuff exactly how many seats did the Dems take in the House? I remember the most likely number predicted was ~35? There's actually quite a few seats still being counted. 538 projects 37 now. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/ They also give Nelson a 15% chance, and Sinema a 33% chance.
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Nov 8, 2018 18:38
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PostNouveau posted:His campaign is making the usual noise in a tight one about provisional ballots and overseas ballots. It might draw close enough for a recount. They're doing a recount probably but recounts don't really change anything unless you're within like a couple hundred votes. The race is close but not really that close.
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Nov 8, 2018 18:39
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there's apparently a *lot* more uncounted provisional and mail-in ballots than people initially thought in Florida so it's pretty reasonable to think that might affect one or both of the extremely close statewide races. a few state senate races have gone to recount today as they dig into more of them
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Nov 8, 2018 18:50
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Directions for the pie: "Bake until golden brown, a color we like to refer to as McCain fine gold."
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Nov 8, 2018 18:55
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Speak of the devil, FL senate race is now in a recount and the governor's race could be headed there as well https://twitter.com/CLove82082839/status/1060592093834301440
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Nov 8, 2018 19:00
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https://twitter.com/vagrunt/status/1060586819111305216?s=19 lmao the jill stein gambit again
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Nov 8, 2018 19:11
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the bitcoin of weed posted:https://twitter.com/vagrunt/status/1060586819111305216?s=19 Good to see BASTA is already affecting change within the Democratic Party 
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Nov 8, 2018 19:13
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The only McCain worth your time.
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Nov 8, 2018 19:30
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the bitcoin of weed posted:https://twitter.com/vagrunt/status/1060586819111305216?s=19 i can't believe a cop is stealing from a black woman
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Nov 8, 2018 19:34
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gently caress kamala also why are there no term limits in the senate loving feinstein
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Nov 8, 2018 20:54
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i guess im saying give aoc access to bezos cloning machine and move several to each and every state
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Nov 8, 2018 20:55
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Food Boner posted:gently caress kamala term limits would deprive us of the hard won wisdom and experience our legislators possess
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Nov 8, 2018 20:58
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.47 point difference in FL governor race and .22 in Senate. Sounds like good odds of shrinking in the coming days A dem victory in either case or in AZ would be worth it for the lols alone as tweets fly with accusations of electoral fraud Edit: more people in Broward county voted for the state commissioner of agriculture than for the Senate, according to the preliminary results Lmao Thesaurus has issued a correction as of 21:35 on Nov 8, 2018 |
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Nov 8, 2018 21:32
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Vox Nihili posted:They're doing a recount probably but recounts don't really change anything unless you're within like a couple hundred votes. The race is close but not really that close. Not so fast my friend. https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060610265606184961
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Nov 8, 2018 21:40
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vyst posted:Not so fast my friend. .21% gap in Senate Lmao it's a hand recount I also have no clue what a state agriculture commissioner does, but it appears Floridians are passionate about the office
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Nov 8, 2018 21:50
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Thesaurus posted:.21% gap in Senate i literally had to google who these state ag comm people even were i just wanted to make sure i didnt cast a single vote for a chud even by accident
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Nov 8, 2018 21:57
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PostNouveau posted:Speak of the devil, FL senate race is now in a recount and the governor's race could be headed there as well here is a real link to the FL recount article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/08/florida-senate-elections-scott-nelson-2018-recount-975805 One thing I noticed here is that the Nelson campaign hired Marc Elias, the same lawyer who was the head of the Al Franken recount team in the 2008 US Senate race in MN. This was a very big recount because Franken was down from Coleman by only like 200 votes on E-day, but then after all the recount steps Franken then won by about 300 votes. It was a bit different than these Florida races though because the margin was much smaller, and it was a hand recount, where the campaigns got to go stand over the shoulders of local recount officials and "challenge" ballots that they didn't like. It looks like the Florida recount right now is a "machine" recount, which I'm not familiar with, but I assume has some inherent advantages and disadvantages to the candidates in this current situation.
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Nov 8, 2018 21:59
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Lutha Mahtin posted:here is a real link to the FL recount article: Gillum hired the Bush 2000 recount lawyer. 
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Nov 8, 2018 21:59
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Looks like Arizona's coming down with a case of voter suppression. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna933866 quote:Republicans filed a lawsuit Wednesday night to challenge the way some Arizona counties count mail-in ballots as election officials began to slowly tally more than 600,000 outstanding votes in the narrow U.S. Senate race — a task that could take days.
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Nov 8, 2018 22:08
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Donkey posted:Looks like Arizona's coming down with a case of voter suppression. Something not mentioned in that quote (might be in the article) is that other (more heavily R-leaning) counties have done the exact same thing the Republicans are now sueing to stop for years.
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Nov 8, 2018 22:10
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Vox Nihili posted:The vote across the entire state of California is maybe 60% in at this point. Mail-in ballots dropped off or received on or after election day (valid so long as postmarked by the 6th) all need to be counted. Realistically, we won't have even preliminary results until Monday. Young people often drop off their ballots on the day of, so the final sprint is usually pretty juiced. It's a California tradition to check the SoS website every day to see who is actually winning. yup iirc ballots postmarked on the 6th aren't even received until tomorrow and won't get counted until Monday which while crazy actually owns because it means lots of close races have a decent chance to swing to dems after a lot of the media made a big deal about not many seats in oc flipping
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Nov 8, 2018 22:12
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The Ol Spicy Keychain posted:Another R seat got flipped today here in NJ after the rest of the votes finished getting counted. this is my fav pickup in the House gently caress Macarthur to hell
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Nov 8, 2018 22:19
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the bitcoin of weed posted:https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1060509741598818307?s=19 quote:All three counties impacted by the shortage favored Democrat Stacey Abrams over Republican Brian Kemp, who is the state’s top election official. 
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Nov 8, 2018 22:22
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FAUXTON posted:There's no Waukesha county Florida, but there certainly is a Dixie county and a Lee county. 22K deficit tho?
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Nov 8, 2018 22:24
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Holy poo poo, HOLY poo poo, it may be happening
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Nov 8, 2018 22:27
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"The machines are pretty accurate" Hmm, yes, that seems like a fine standard for counting votes
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Nov 8, 2018 22:37
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Crakkerjakk posted:Something not mentioned in that quote (might be in the article) is that other (more heavily R-leaning) counties have done the exact same thing the Republicans are now sueing to stop for years. During the Franken/Coleman thing there was some batch of ballots that Coleman campaign fought hard to include, then it turned out they were pro-Franken ballots, and then they sued to exclude them
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Nov 8, 2018 22:41
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Vox Nihili posted:Holy poo poo, HOLY poo poo, it may be happening this looks like a sloppy article to me. saying "the other statewide races had fewer undervotes in the ballots from this county" doesn't give much useful information, because undervotes naturally vary for a variety of reasons, and many of those reasons are totally innocent and innocuous. it would help a lot more if the reporter compared it to figures that political scientists generally agree are good figures to compare it to
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Nov 8, 2018 22:49
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Lutha Mahtin posted:this looks like a sloppy article to me. saying "the other statewide races had fewer undervotes in the ballots from this county" doesn't give much useful information, because undervotes naturally vary for a variety of reasons, and many of those reasons are totally innocent and innocuous. it would help a lot more if the reporter compared it to figures that political scientists generally agree are good figures to compare it to 
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Nov 8, 2018 23:01
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hell yeah that's what im talkin about
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Nov 8, 2018 23:06
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Margin in Florida is close enough to trigger a manual recount by hand now (<0.25%)
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Nov 8, 2018 23:37
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cant believe im getting my hopes up over florida 
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Nov 8, 2018 23:47
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