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Why is the AG commissioner running above Gillum and Nelson? Is her opponent Roy Moore?Shimrra Jamaane posted:Mitt trying to primary Trump in 2020 sure would be... something. He'll get at least one vote in Arizona. 
Ague Proof fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Nov 9, 2018 |
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Nov 9, 2018 00:20
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North Carolina Decides, 2020! Part three of my spiteful campaign to against people who say you can’t make predictions about 2020 when it’s over two years away (and also, indirectly, Sun and all who draw sustenance from it). This time, we’ll be looking at potential swing state, definite Senate battleground, and voter suppression state of North Carolina. As always, skim for the highlights in bold. My first post, covering the Presidential and House elections in general My second post, covering the Senate and Governor elections in general North Carolina is a southern state, and is the 9th most populous state in America. The largest city, Charlotte, is the third largest banking center in the US, while the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Research Triangle is the largest research park in the US. The median household income is $50,797, the 38th highest in the nation. As of the 2010 Census, North Carolina is 65.3% Non-Hispanic White, 21.5% Black, and 8.4% Hispanic. 58.5% of the people residing in North Carolina were born there. Over the last few decades, North Carolina has become increasingly less white, more educated, and wealthier, and the state population has been growing faster than the national average. A significant amount of those changes has been driven by growth in the previously mentioned Raleigh-Durham Research Triangle and Charlotte metro area. Historically, like the rest of the Southern states, North Carolina became a Republican stronghold after the post-Civil Rights political realignment. But like Virginia to the immediate north, the increasingly diverse, college-educated, and wealthy population has resulted in a more Democratic-friendly electorate, and minority and urban voters are increasingly engaged. Presidential Election In 2020, North Carolina will have 15 electoral votes. Barack Obama won the state by .3% in 2008 and lost it by 2.1% in 2012 - it, along with Indiana, were the only Obama states that Romney flipped. Donald Trump won the state in 2016 with 49.8% of the vote - .6% of the vote less than Romney, and failing to achieve a plurality. Obama's narrow victory in 2008 depended on building a new coalition of black and urban voters along the I-85 corridor, and was helped tremendously by the 2008 economic collapse. Romney re-took the state in part due to strong performance of suburban Charlotte voters. Trump and Clinton both underperformed and overperformed compared to previous elections - both candidates received more total votes in North Carolina, but a smaller percentage of votes cast. Third-party and write-in votes spiked to 4% in 2016, with Gary Johnson receiving 2.8% of the total votes. As far as 2020 analysis goes, North Carolina is almost certainly going to be considered a swing state. Despite winning the state, Trump fairly clearly underperformed in 2016 and bled votes to Gary Johnson and Hillary Clinton. Trump's issues with the college-educated whites that Romney rode to victory have only worsen, and non-college white men will make up a smaller portion of the electorate in 2020. However, that is only half of the equation - the Democratic Candidate will need to activate Obama's I-85 coalition of urban and minority voters, AND flip suburban white voters turned off by Trump, to reliably take the state. Doing only one of those things will turn the state in a late night nail-biter. North Carolina, while a swing state, will probably not be a pivotal race for the presidential election. Most Democratic paths to the presidency (the combination of states the Democrats need to win to achieve sufficient electoral votes) won't need North Carolina. However, if Ohio appears to be a solid Trump state, that could change. With 15 electoral votes, North Carolina is the fourth most valuable swing state. Senate Election Thom Tillis (R-NC) is the Junior Senator for North Carolina, along with Richard Burr (R-NC). Tillis first took the senate seat in 2014, after serving four 2-year terms as the Speaker for the North Carolina House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the NC legislature. While technically not term limited, Tillis had promised to vacate the state House after 4 terms (8 years). During the 2014 elections, Tillis defeated a crowded field in the Republican Primary before unseating incumbent Kay Hagan (D-NC). Thom Tillis has been receiving minor national attention since 2011, and appears to be a competent and ambitious politician aiming for a leadership role within the Republican party. During the 2014 election, Tillis received endorsements from Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, and then-Governor Pat McCrory. He won the Republican primary with 45.7% of the vote (the next closest candidate received 27.2%) and won the general election with 48.8% of the vote (to Kay Hagan's 47.3%) Thom Tillis has no known personal scandals, but received support from Cambridge Analytica and large amounts of out-of-state and "dark money" funding during the 2014 election. Before dissolving due to scandal and international attention after the 2016 presidential election, Cambridge Analytica advertised their work for the Tillis campaign as a "case study" for what they could do. In addition, Tillis accepted campaign donations for his federal campaign from state lobbyists while still speaker of the house, something that was technically legal but called out during the Republican primary. Tillis has taken heterodoxical stances on Immigration (Supports Dreamers), LGBT rights (Opposes the Transgender Military Ban, supports Social Security benefits for same-sex spouses), and the Special Counsel (Co-wrote a bill that would prevent Donald Trump firing Mueller). That last one might seem important, but one of the co-authors was Lindsey Graham. He also supported the Republican gun control bills after the Pulse shooting, but still has an A+ rating for the NRA. He lobbied President Trump to withdraw from the Paris Accords. Tillis' senate seat will be heavily contested in 2020, as he's one of the more vulnerable Republican seats. An open question is how closely Tillis will tie himself to Trump, and whether or not that will hurt him. Tillis is positioned to overperform Trump among the historically Republican suburbs of Charlotte, but the near-inevitable presence of the Trump campaign in the state could minimize split-ticket voting. There are very few hypothetical Democratic-controlled Senates that have Tillis in them. House of Representatives Despite obtaining only 50.3% of the vote to the Democrats 48.4%, Republicans won 10 of the 13 House districts this week. While this is partially due to new Democratic voters self-packing into metro areas, North Carolina is also a state that was partially covered by the Voter Rights Act of 1965 and has an ongoing court case about their district map. Federal judges have struck down the district map as unconstitutional twice, and the case is currently headed towards the Supreme Court. The Republican super-majority in the state legislature (appears to be) broken after the 2018 elections, but they still dominate and are fighting hard against redistricting. On the upside! There's no chance that the Democrats are going to lose any House seats in this state. Depending on what ends up happening with the district map, the Democrats might even gain a seat or two. Governor When Roy Cooper defeated incumbent governor Pat McCrory, he was the first challenger to defeat a sitting governor since 1850. The 2016 election was extremely close, with Roy Cooper ultimately defeating McCrory 49% to 48.8%, after a recount that lasted until December 5th. After McCrory conceded in December, but before Cooper took office, the legislature passed bills in a special session to remove power from the governor. This basically set the tenor for the rest of his time in office, where Cooper has regularly vetoed bills and budgets, and had his veto overridden in turn. A key element that helped Cooper's election was his opposition to the Public Facilities Privacy and Security Act, aka House Bill 2, aka "The Bathroom Bill". This law eliminated local anti-discrimination protection for LGBT people and required people to use the bathroom that corresponds to the sex listed on their birth certificate. This bill was in response to Charlotte passing LGBT anti-discrimination laws in city limits, and was signed into law by Pat McCrory. The subsequent international reaction, economic boycotts, and loss in tourism would cost North Carolina billions of dollars. Cooper won't have any similar public controversy helping him during the upcoming election, which will reduce his chances… maybe. However, the ongoing battles with the state legislature haven't reduced his popularity, and incumbency has been a historically powerful factor in North Carolina governor elections… so maybe. I would say Roy Cooper's chances of winning his election in North Carolina is better than Tillis or Trump, but who the gently caress knows. Like most of the governor elections in 2020, they’re going to be hideously local, but at least Cooper won’t be a drag on his party like some states. Edit: I forgot to ask, what state would people like to see next? Or just shout out requests
New Hampshire (Senate seat, governor, potential swing state) Arizona (Senate seat) Tibalt fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Nov 9, 2018 |
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Nov 9, 2018 00:21
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Protest was pretty heartening, definitely over a hundred people at its height. No good chants though and it dispersed immediately after sunset.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:22
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Triskelli posted:Protest was pretty heartening, definitely over a hundred people at its height. No good chants though and it dispersed immediately after sunset. Ours had some decent stuff "No Trump, no KKK, no facist USA" was my fav new one
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Nov 9, 2018 00:25
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Grape posted:My dream is Mitt running independent as a spoiler candidate. Well he carry Utah. That’s it.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:27
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Triskelli posted:Protest was pretty heartening, definitely over a hundred people at its height. No good chants though and it dispersed immediately after sunset. I don't give a poo poo about Sessions but this is at least seems like a good trial run for if Mueller actually gets fired. Though I'd like to see something that is more direct-action oriented like the airport protests
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Nov 9, 2018 00:30
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lmao https://twitter.com/PhilBryantMS/status/1060562170411409408 
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Nov 9, 2018 00:32
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Arturo Ui posted:I don't give a poo poo about Sessions but this is at least seems like a good trial run for if Mueller actually gets fired. Though I'd like to see something that is more direct-action oriented like the airport protests https://twitter.com/justinhendrix/status/1060674514160246785
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Nov 9, 2018 00:34
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I feel like Romney was probably hoping for a much bigger blue wave so he could credibly argue "Trump doesn't work, I'm the guy to save the party!"
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Nov 9, 2018 00:36
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Mitt trying to primary Trump in 2020 sure would be... something. I can already imagine how that will play out. Like Mitt will kind of sort of start to criticize something about Trump in an early debate and Trump will whine for like five minutes straight about how mean everyone is to him and how it's just so unfair and how Mitt is being 10,000 times more vicious to him than he was to Obama and then CNN/etc.'s conversations after will be "DID MITT GO TOO FAR!?!?!?"
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Nov 9, 2018 00:38
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Mitt/Bloomberg trying to pull a Perot would be extremely funny
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Nov 9, 2018 00:39
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Z. Autobahn posted:I feel like Romney was probably hoping for a much bigger blue wave so he could credibly argue "Trump doesn't work, I'm the guy to save the party!" Yeah, I think he might hold out for running against one of Trump's kids in 2024 or later
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Nov 9, 2018 00:39
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There's no way Romney is ballsy enough to try to coup Trump, losing the MAGA chud's enthusiasm if he won would be a death spell.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:40
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Tatsuta Age posted:Ours had some decent stuff People were chanting that back since the airport protests during the first Muslim ban, if not earlier It wasn't the most popular one but I'm glad it sounds like it's gaining steam since it's, uh, extremely accurate
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Nov 9, 2018 00:40
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https://twitter.com/BerkeleyBowl/status/1059480400983056384
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Nov 9, 2018 00:41
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Z. Autobahn posted:I feel like Romney was probably hoping for a much bigger blue wave so he could credibly argue "Trump doesn't work, I'm the guy to save the party!" His Senate run was basically win-win. If he had somehow lost in Utah, he would have been perfectly positioned to say exactly that.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:42
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Neo Rasa posted:I can already imagine how that will play out. Like Mitt will kind of sort of start to criticize something about Trump in an early debate and Trump will whine for like five minutes straight about how mean everyone is to him and how it's just so unfair and how Mitt is being 10,000 times more vicious to him than he was to Obama and then CNN/etc.'s conversations after will be "DID MITT GO TOO FAR!?!?!?" Yeah, it's this. What the whole country needs to learn is that Trump or Sanders don't have to tell the truth or even be right; once they say something, for some percentage of the country, it already exists, and for those people, all those articles do is boost the signal.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:43
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1060668288408129536
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Nov 9, 2018 00:44
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lmfao the best people
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Nov 9, 2018 00:44
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Saying this guy looks like a thumb would be an insult to thumbs
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Nov 9, 2018 00:45
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I've seen a number of reasonable claims made that Whittaker's appointment is illegal on a number of technicalities. What's the next step on that? Does someone need to sue, or a judge weigh in?
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Nov 9, 2018 00:46
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Trump probably had this recording and it's the reason he was hired.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:46
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Nationwide protests against Trump firing Sessions to threaten Mueller going on and literally no news coverage, lol
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Nov 9, 2018 00:47
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Lemming posted:Nationwide protests against Trump firing Sessions to threaten Mueller going on and literally no news coverage, lol did they involve a lot people?
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Nov 9, 2018 00:48
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Tucker Carlson deserved worse (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 9, 2018 00:48
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twice burned ice posted:Saying this guy looks like a thumb would be an insult to thumbs To be fair that's most people
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Nov 9, 2018 00:49
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Neo Rasa posted:I can already imagine how that will play out. Like Mitt will kind of sort of start to criticize something about Trump in an early debate and Trump will whine for like five minutes straight about how mean everyone is to him and how it's just so unfair and how Mitt is being 10,000 times more vicious to him than he was to Obama and then CNN/etc.'s conversations after will be "DID MITT GO TOO FAR!?!?!?" No Trump will just make fun of him and call him a loser just like he did to everyone in the Republican clown car debates of 2016, and will win the primary in a landslide because it's actually true.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:50
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Lemming posted:Nationwide protests against Trump firing Sessions to threaten Mueller going on and literally no news coverage, lol I'm guessing its wall to wall coverage of ______ _______? And whether Acosta actually used a Judo chop?
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Nov 9, 2018 00:50
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A machine in Florida malfunctioned again: https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1060596882970415106 Someone call Chris Christie, we need to fix him again.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:50
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Lemming posted:Nationwide protests against Trump firing Sessions to threaten Mueller going on and literally no news coverage, lol We'll hear about it more once the police start attacking protesters. Headline: Anti-Trump protests marred by violence as police struggle to maintain order
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Nov 9, 2018 00:50
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https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1060675442301124608
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Nov 9, 2018 00:51
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Rinkles posted:did they involve a lot people? Yes, but it's not an astroturfed right wing protest so the media doesn't give a poo poo.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:53
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loving Canadians moving to texas ruined everything.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:55
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Why are so many undocumented immigrants voting for Cruz?
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Nov 9, 2018 00:56
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Ague Proof posted:A machine in Florida malfunctioned again: I thought Trump was the one who had Rubio fixed?
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Nov 9, 2018 00:56
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loving snowbirds making the south worse than it already is.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:56
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Bernie status: definitely not racist you guys https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-andrew-gillum-stacey-abrams_us_5be48626e4b0769d24cadd68
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Nov 9, 2018 00:57
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There’s a really good chance a lot of those Cruz voters were older conservative Hispanics who weren’t born in Texas.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:57
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It's on the top of CNN with a live feed. https://www.cnn.com/specials/live-video-2?adkey=bn I'm heading out to one that should start in an hour. Later shitlords
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Nov 9, 2018 00:57
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twice burned ice posted:Saying this guy looks like a thumb would be an insult to thumbs He's more penis than thumb.
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Nov 9, 2018 00:58
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