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Party Plane Jones posted:I'm suspending the tucker carlson rule from earlier but let me say this
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Nov 9, 2018 06:18
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more like fucker failson
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Nov 9, 2018 06:19
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Also remember that in a “good” year for the GOP they easily could have picked off 13 democratic seats: IN, FL, MI, MN1, MN2, MO, MT, ND, OH, PA, VA, WI, WV.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:19
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Also this post from Trump IV remains true:Party Plane Jones posted:if you caught a probe in the past couple hours post more content in the future Stop barging into the thread and cropdusting it with your lack of content posts. this is d&d, if you'd like somewhere where you can just post trump! at random intervals cspam is just next door. It is going to be impossible to read with all 800/900 posters viewing D&D per day (on a slow news day anyways) all postin' single words (also  that latter part turning out to be true)
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Nov 9, 2018 06:21
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Also remember that in a “good” year for the GOP they easily could have picked off 13 democratic seats: IN, FL, MI, MN1, MN2, MO, MT, ND, OH, PA, VA, WI, WV. The GOP killing off the blue dogs while gaining a net gain of +1 seat is even funnier than I imagined. Lose the House and multiple state governments and net gain a senate seat. Not a womp womp big enough TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 06:24 on Nov 9, 2018 |
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Nov 9, 2018 06:22
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Good thing “Tucker Carlson” is two words
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Nov 9, 2018 06:22
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Still no update on RBG 
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Nov 9, 2018 06:24
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Also remember that in a “good” year for the GOP they easily could have picked off 13 democratic seats: IN, FL, MI, MN1, MN2, MO, MT, ND, OH, PA, VA, WI, WV. If Hillary Clinton were in office, this would be an absolute massacre for the Dems. Imagine Republicans getting over 60 senate seats, holding the house, getting someone 'likable' like Ben Sasse elected in 2020 and drawing most of the maps so they can gerrymander the next tens years away. Trump may turn out to be one of the worst things to happen to the Republicans in a long time.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:25
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Also remember that in a “good” year for the GOP they easily could have picked off 13 democratic seats: IN, FL, MI, MN1, MN2, MO, MT, ND, OH, PA, VA, WI, WV. They probably could have done this with President Hillary
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Nov 9, 2018 06:26
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Ego-bot posted:Trump may turn out to be one of the worst things to happen to the Republicans in a long time. it already is lol
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Nov 9, 2018 06:27
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This thread perfectly illustrates why it’s futile to debate conservatives, chiefly that their “beliefs” will shift to suit their need to troll you: https://twitter.com/AmandaMarcotte/status/1060511898347692032
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Nov 9, 2018 06:28
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Grape posted:That still requires being fundamentally stupid! Not everyone spends all day looking at maps that are basically populationdensity.jpg so it's not always super obvious to everyone just how many more people live in those blue areas. What is frustrating is how loving common it is to explain this to people and have them still not give a poo poo. I've been involved in conversations like this and watched first hand as "but more of the country is Republican!" turns to understanding turns rapidly to "but that's not fair, why should they have more power just because there are more of them!"
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Nov 9, 2018 06:30
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DLC Inc posted:it already is lol I wouldn't go that far yet. He did get them unified control of government, at least 2 SCOTUS picks, a shitload of lower court picks. McConnell had a lot to do with that too, but if they didn't win the Whitehouse in 2016 it's not happening.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:31
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Guze posted:They probably could have done this with President Hillary Seriously. I've discussed in political groups a number of times how the silver lining (and it is a stretch to find one) of 2016 is that it prevented us from losing 9-15 seats in the Senate in 2018 and keeping it out of reach for the next decade or more. Not to mention the disaster of having a republican "lock up President Clinton" wave in 2018 would have lead to even more state house/governor consolidation ahead of the 2020 census, ushering in 10 more years of gerrymandering hell.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:32
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TulliusCicero posted:The GOP killing off the blue dogs while gaining a net gain of +1 seat is even funnier than I imagined. It's sort of nice to be able to laugh at centrists when they fail after chasing the lovely chud vote and smooching trump's fat rear end, but I mean it'd kind of be nicer if they *didn't* lose and the dems actually took the Senate. Or if there was a realistic path forward to winning red states in 2020.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:32
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Party Plane Jones posted:I'm suspending the tucker carlson rule from earlier but let me say this Fucker tucking carlson
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Nov 9, 2018 06:32
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They would have tried to impeach Clinton before 2020 and might have succeeded if alt-2018 was bad enough.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:33
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Ego-bot posted:If Hillary Clinton were in office, this would be an absolute massacre for the Dems. Imagine Republicans getting over 60 senate seats, holding the house, getting someone 'likable' like Ben Sasse elected in 2020 and drawing most of the maps so they can gerrymander the next tens years away. Trump may turn out to be one of the worst things to happen to the Republicans in a long time. https://twitter.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/727604522156228608
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Nov 9, 2018 06:40
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Ego-bot posted:If Hillary Clinton were in office, this would be an absolute massacre for the Dems. Imagine Republicans getting over 60 senate seats, holding the house, getting someone 'likable' like Ben Sasse elected in 2020 and drawing most of the maps so they can gerrymander the next tens years away. Trump may turn out to be one of the worst things to happen to the Republicans in a long time. This. While we would have not had to deal with the last 2 years of unabashed fascism and flaunting of the law of the GOP, we would have dealt with a united and more powerful GOP, which would have possibly gained an even larger house majority and controlled the Senate for a thousand years of Conservative darkness. Instead, Trump's insanity pushes the suburbs further into our hands, we make huge gains in the House and across the states, and young people are PISSED at the GOP for the next decade. He has hit his foot on the gas, and the reaction to him is just ramping up. Graham was prophetic when he said Trump would be the end of the GOP; he just didn't know on what election cycle. Trumpism has destroyed the modern GOP and may even lead to the full rise of the the DSA in the party. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Nov 9, 2018 |
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Nov 9, 2018 06:40
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Tibalt posted:Despite McConnell's bluster, he already knows how bad a 53-47 Senate is compared to even just a 54-46 split for 2020. could you explain in one or two sentences?
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Nov 9, 2018 06:40
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I question the assumption that kids will be liberal. They are Always Online and the main thing about impressionable people who are Always Online is they turn into neonazis
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Nov 9, 2018 06:43
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corn in the bible posted:I question the assumption that kids will be liberal. They are Always Online and the main thing about impressionable people who are Always Online is they turn into neonazis Only the incels that live on 4chan and The_Donald. That already excludes half the population and probably 90% of the other half.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:44
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Tibalt posted:There's nothing with your logic but I have a fundamental issue with looking to Presidential elections as a guide on which states should Democratic/Republican senators - each state and the contextual map are unique enough that senators like Manchin survive while senators like Bayh fail.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:45
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Ego-bot posted:If Hillary Clinton were in office, this would be an absolute massacre for the Dems. Imagine Republicans getting over 60 senate seats, holding the house, getting someone 'likable' like Ben Sasse elected in 2020 and drawing most of the maps so they can gerrymander the next tens years away. Trump may turn out to be one of the worst things to happen to the Republicans in a long time. this has been my thesis for a while. If we make it to 2020 with the Republic still intact I think we're all going to look back and say Trump winning was the long-term better outcome than those 50k votes going Hillary. People are now very aware of how horrible the GOP is. The mask is off, probably for good. Of course the best outcome would've been a 400 EV Hillary win that outlawed the GOP but that wasn't ever going to happen. Pander posted:Meanwhile in WV, Joe's digging into the cliffside like he's got Fu Manchu-in fingernails and refusing to fall. the path forward in red states is probably FDR-style economic populism. Don't say a drat word about social issues and talk only about universal healthcare, jobs, wage increases, and (even though I hate this policy) anti-free trade stuff. axeil fucked around with this message at 06:48 on Nov 9, 2018 |
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Nov 9, 2018 06:46
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Rinkles posted:could you explain in one or two sentences? The short answer is: there are two easily winnable senate races in 2020, and two more that are doable in a favorable environment. Winning 2 or 3 seats is expected in a "normal" election environment for us. Winning 4 becomes much harder, especially given that we would have to defend Alabama. The long answer is detailed here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-how-this-years-race-sets-up-2020/ The difference between 47-53 and 46-54 is the "needle of doom" for the Senate in 2020 starting at 55% chance of Democratic pickup vs 10% chance of Democratic pickup.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:47
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axeil posted:this has been my thesis for a while. If we make it to 2020 with the Republic still intact I think we're all going to look back and say Trump winning was the long-term better outcome than those 50k votes going Hillary. People are now very aware of how horrible the GOP is. The mask is off, probably for good. I think this is an incredibly irresponsible thing to say considering we don't actually know that and the huge amount of human suffering that has already been inflicted. I know I personally have not really had my life impacted in any way since I'm white and rich.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:48
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LegendaryFrog posted:The short answer is: there are two easily winnable senate races in 2020, and two more that are doable in a favorable environment. Winning 2 or 3 seats is expected in a "normal" election environment for us. Winning 4 becomes much harder, especially given that we would have to defend Alabama. thanks
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Nov 9, 2018 06:52
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Lemming posted:I think this is an incredibly irresponsible thing to say considering we don't actually know that and the huge amount of human suffering that has already been inflicted. I know I personally have not really had my life impacted in any way since I'm white and rich. Based on the Obama years, we can be pretty sure that the continuing wipeouts at all levels of government in Obama: Term 3: Less Charisma: More Scandals would have been apocalyptic. Imagine Hillary losing reelection in 2020 with GOP supermajorities in congress. gently caress we might have lost enough state governments for the GOP to amend the constitution.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:52
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corn in the bible posted:I question the assumption that kids will be liberal. They are Always Online and the main thing about impressionable people who are Always Online is they turn into neonazis Kids aren't using Facebook and Twitter. They don't watch cable news.
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Nov 9, 2018 06:58
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https://twitter.com/travis_view/status/1060594251183022080
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Nov 9, 2018 07:04
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Niwrad posted:Kids aren't using Facebook and Twitter. They don't watch cable news. yeah they watch twitch and youtube and use instagram
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Nov 9, 2018 07:05
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corn in the bible posted:yeah they watch twitch and youtube and use instagram The kids are alright Corny.
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Nov 9, 2018 07:06
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VitalSigns posted:Based on the Obama years, we can be pretty sure that the continuing wipeouts at all levels of government in Obama: Term 3: Less Charisma: More Scandals would have been apocalyptic. On the other hand, the economy's still doing well, ACA wouldn't be damaged as much, there wouldn't be any child camps, and we'd have 8 justices still just deadlocking stuff. It's a huge aberration how much of a wave there was with how well the economy is doing. That's not normal. I get that congress went towards Republicans under Obama but that's because everybody was still hurting since Republicans sabotaged the recovery. I wouldn't be certain things would be going full tilt the other way.
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Nov 9, 2018 07:07
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corn in the bible posted:I question the assumption that kids will be liberal. They are Always Online and the main thing about impressionable people who are Always Online is they turn into neonazis Except that we already have abundant evidence that us Millennials are far more progressive than preceding generations and that, so far, the Gen Zs are making even us look like loving Pinochet. The environment we've all grown up in has fundamentally soured us on right wing economics because the Great Recession annihilated us so hard our kids are hosed too, and on social issues we're about ten minutes out from demanding mandatory transitioning and discovering the Gay Gene so we can give it to everyone. There's plenty of noisy loving nazis and other edgelords out there, and we sure as hell have to take them seriously, but don't mistake them being noisy fuckers with them being numerous.
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Nov 9, 2018 07:09
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Ms Adequate posted:Except that we already have abundant evidence that us Millennials are far more progressive than preceding generations and that, so far, the Gen Zs are making even us look like loving Pinochet. The environment we've all grown up in has fundamentally soured us on right wing economics because the Great Recession annihilated us so hard our kids are hosed too, and on social issues we're about ten minutes out from demanding mandatory transitioning and discovering the Gay Gene so we can give it to everyone. There's plenty of noisy loving nazis and other edgelords out there, and we sure as hell have to take them seriously, but don't mistake them being noisy fuckers with them being numerous. People have been saying for years that the country will shift blue and stay there permanently. It hasn't happened, it won't happen, and it isn't because of gerrymandering.
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Nov 9, 2018 07:12
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'Demographics are destiny' has always been an excuse for the Democrats to offer nothing to anyone but their donors.
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Nov 9, 2018 07:19
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CelestialScribe posted:People have been saying for years that the country will shift blue and stay there permanently. It hasn't happened, it won't happen, and it isn't because of gerrymandering. The last two years have been a daily reminder that racism and cruelty in America is akin to alcoholism. We became so convinced of our own sobriety that we thought we could handle a couple of beers. Now here we are completely off the wagon. Racism always finds a way to come back.
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Nov 9, 2018 07:21
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CelestialScribe posted:People have been saying for years that the country will shift blue and stay there permanently. It hasn't happened, it won't happen, and it isn't because of gerrymandering. On a national level, the country already has a permanently blue majority; Dems won 7 of the last 8 popular votes, and we can all agree that 2004 was something of a fluke due to 9/11 incumbency. The problem is that blue majority is concentrated in a small number of states. Our government is absolutely gerrymandered by the Electoral College and the Senate in some pretty fundamental ways. Z. Autobahn fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Nov 9, 2018 |
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Nov 9, 2018 07:22
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Tibalt posted:This was an incredibly lovely election for the Republicans, but explaining that, nuh uh, you actually lost because you're suppose to be up +4 in the Senate makes you sound like a loving NERD I would actually be perfectly fine with a national narrative which doesn't sell on that this was a solidly incredible blue wave even if it was. If the republicans really double down on the feelgood denial and try to narrative it about how this was a 'mixed bag' and 'both sides kinda won' ... then they'll spend their time pissing around with mockery and going "ah yes, this 'blue wave' of yours, we have dismissed those claims" It would practically guarantee they learn nearly none of the lessons we don't want them to learn, at least for a time.
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Nov 9, 2018 07:24
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Lemming posted:On the other hand, the economy's still doing well, ACA wouldn't be damaged as much, there wouldn't be any child camps, and we'd have 8 justices still just deadlocking stuff. the economy would be doing gently caress all under hillary, just like trump, because they are both neoliberals. hillary would not close the child camps, just like obama, the deporter in chief, did not. things would be just as bad under hillary, but with more decorum. hurray, i guess.
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Nov 9, 2018 07:25
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