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Failed Imagineer posted:He resigned, and Schumer is choosing to see that as a Damascene conversion though literally not a single person in America thinks that Yeah, but Kemp felt really bad about it - the Baileys told Chuck so!
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Nov 9, 2018 21:51
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Squalid posted:He did not. If you follow the link in his avatar its quite obvious from the context that rather than literally denying the holocaust, he was making a ham-handed analogy. He made the point badly, but what he was trying to say is obvious enough that when I see statements like this I have to assume you know they are wrong. This makes you look hypocritical, as making disingenuous arguments is typically the reason given for disliking Leon Trotsky 2012. I would not accuse someone of denying the Holocaust if I didn't think they were denying the Holocaust. I withdraw my comment then.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:52
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Sky Shadowing posted:My opinion of GWB has admittedly swung from evil to well-meaning but incompetent, ineffective, misguided, and completely unaware of the realities of the country and its people. A bad president but not pure evil. I wouldn't say my opinion of him is positive, but he tried to be a good president and failed. Dude he's a mass murderer who lied the country into a devastating war so his buddies could make a buck  there is no "he meant well" on deliberately fabricating a casus belli to invade a resource-rich country
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Nov 9, 2018 21:53
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Kemp resigned before the recount started.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:53
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I'd never bet on FL and I live in Palm BeachRoluth posted:Yeah, that's better than the 55-45 I thought it was earlier. What does this do to Senate chances? With R+2 we're looking at something like 45% for senate control in 2020. With R+3 it'll be like 10%. These are very accurate and highly scientific numbers.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:53
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Kemp only resigned because he claimed victory. If there are enough votes for a runoff who knows what'll happen.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:54
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Ryan was pro-life until a few years ago. He claims that he changed his mind because a woman talked to him and explained why she needed an abortion and was scared she might not be able get one. Actually, it was 6 months after the birth of his first child, which he said had a huge hand in the decision. And that's fair. It doesn't excuse his former position, but lets not forever punish people for eventually getting to the right answer. Obama was against gay marriage a decade ago. Again, if that former position means he shouldn't be Speaker then whatever, but he's certainly not a Blue Dog like so many people claim.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:54
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Good thing Montana finished within the apparent designated vote counting time limit.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:55
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RBG’s arrogance disgusts the nation.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:57
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I thought Kemp actually recused himself from overseeing the recount or whatever's happening in GA (after stealing the election, but still). He resigned from his position because he considered himself to have won the election, basically, it wasn't like "Oh, I can't get involved in this."
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Nov 9, 2018 21:57
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Medullah posted:Is this something like "the signatures of supposed voters don't match the ones on file"? Because let me tell you, my signature never looks the same way twice. This is news from yesterday, maybe it changed, but as I understand it: Arizona has a rule that signatures on absentee ballots have to match the one on file. If they don't, it doesn't get thrown out, it just takes longer to process. The Arizona GOP basically sued, claiming that all bad-signature ballots had to be processed the day of the election, but they only sued the districts that contain the major urban areas of Arizona, I.E., the places democrats will be.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:58
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Trump can't just call for a new election for the house now, right? I feel the answer should be no, but knowing this hell world, I fear it will be he can
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Nov 9, 2018 21:58
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MasterSlowPoke posted:I'd never bet on FL and I live in Palm Beach At +2 I'm comfortable with 55% (again, highly scientific) to account for increased turnout due to Trump and leeway made against gerrymandering with our governor pick-ups. If we're lucky enough for the economy to take a poo poo before then (lol) we could be looking at a more favorable figure.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:58
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Roluth posted:Yeah, that's better than the 55-45 I thought it was earlier. What does this do to Senate chances? So you start off at 54-46 (assuming you lose Alabama, which seems likely but stranger things have happened). There are no other obvious Democratic losses (someone could always blow a race, but you're not penciling in any other incumbent as likely to lose). You need to win 4 seats, and the Presidency, to get a majority. In 2020, the following are reasonable to hope to win: Maine North Carolina Arizona (McCain's old seat) Colorado That gets you the Senate, but with no room for error. The next level of long-shots, which you probably don't win absent a really strong candidate and/or a recession are: Georgia Iowa Alabama (well, you hope not to lose it) Montana Kentucky (this probably shouldn't even be on this list, honestly, you need a really good candidate who I don't think exists) There's other states that in a blue wave/Trump collapse you could target but you'd need a real 2008-style complete Republican wipeout. So basically, taking Arizona turns 2020 into "needs at least one miracle win" to "winnable but the stars need to align". Taking Florida as well gives Dems a solid shot to take it.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:58
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Nonsense posted:RBG’s arrogance disgusts the nation. If only. The whole "Notorious RBG" brand is a full-on industry now.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:58
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Willo567 posted:Trump can't just call for a new election for the house now, right? He can't, no, and it's not a thing he'd be likely to do at all.
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Nov 9, 2018 21:59
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I thought Kemp actually recused himself from overseeing the recount or whatever's happening in GA (after stealing the election, but still). Georgia is about if it goes to a special election, not so much a recout (Kemp needs to fall under 50% when all ballots are counted).
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Nov 9, 2018 21:59
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Willo567 posted:Trump can't just call for a new election for the house now, right? There is no legal mechanism for any such thing, and even if he/the GOP wanted to simply invent one on the spot it's not clear that they have any strong incentive to.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:01
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Willo567 posted:Trump can't just call for a new election for the house now, right? No, that is not how it works. If he tries to do that and succeeds, he's already a dictator so don't worry about it.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:02
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evilweasel posted:So you start off at 54-46 (assuming you lose Alabama, which seems likely but stranger things have happened). There are no other obvious Democratic losses (someone could always blow a race, but you're not penciling in any other incumbent as likely to lose). You need to win 4 seats, and the Presidency, to get a majority. What if Gabby Giffords ran in AZ? Or is she done with political office?
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Nov 9, 2018 22:02
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evilweasel posted:Georgia is about if it goes to a special election, not so much a recout (Kemp needs to fall under 50% when all ballots are counted). Where's he at now? Last I saw was 50.023%
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Nov 9, 2018 22:02
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Willo567 posted:Trump can't just call for a new election for the house now, right? He cannot, no. Elections are administrated by state governments so he can't really make them do poo poo.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:03
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I thought Kemp actually recused himself from overseeing the recount or whatever's happening in GA (after stealing the election, but still). Kemp resigned because he was being sued over it and was going to lose anyways
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Nov 9, 2018 22:03
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Willo567 posted:Trump can't just call for a new election for the house now, right? There are no provisions for a re-do of elections pretty much no matter what happens at any level of the American election system. You'd need an unprecedented court order, which people did not get even when in Virginia they proved that the number of people wrongly given a ballot that didn't let them vote in the correct race (apparently by mistake, but nobody knows as the person responsible died) exceeded the margin of victory in that race (e.g., to pick numbers out of thin air rather than look them up, 1000 people got given the wrong ballot (and did not vote in the race they should have, and the winner in that race won by 100, which is almost as clean an argument for a redo of an election as you can get).
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Nov 9, 2018 22:03
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Nonsense posted:RBG’s arrogance disgusts the nation. i know one-liner bad takes is your thing but this is exceptionally bad also a total non sequitur Majorian posted:If only. The whole "Notorious RBG" brand is a full-on industry now. good, she and sotomayor in particular both own, and it also makes me happy when
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Nov 9, 2018 22:03
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evilweasel posted:There are no provisions for a re-do of elections pretty much no matter what happens at any level of the American election system. You'd need an unprecedented court order, which people did not get even when in Virginia they proved that the number of people wrongly given a ballot that didn't let them vote in the correct race (apparently by mistake, but nobody knows as the person responsible died) exceeded the margin of victory in that race (e.g., to pick numbers out of thin air rather than look them up, 1000 people got given the wrong ballot (and did not vote in the race they should have, and the winner in that race won by 100, which is almost as clean an argument for a redo of an election as you can get). i'm looking forward to his "Why doesn't the Constitution say something about this? AMEND!!" tweet
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Nov 9, 2018 22:04
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Even though it was inappropriate, Obama asking RBG to step down in 2013 so he could appoint another Justice was probably the right move. Although, I understand that it sucks, is kind embarrassing, and her point that a Republican Senate wouldn't appoint someone as liberal as her, she still should have taken it.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:04
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GreyjoyBastard posted:
Ehhhh...the whole cultural appropriation angle of it really skeeves me out. That's not her fault, though, she didn't come up with it. She does own, I just really wish she had resigned when she had the chance.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:04
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Harrow posted:He cannot, no. Elections are administrated by state governments so he can't really make them do poo poo. Remember millennia ago when he asked for 2016 voting records from every state, and just about every governor and election commission told him to gently caress off?
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Nov 9, 2018 22:05
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Deified Data posted:At +2 I'm comfortable with 55% (again, highly scientific) to account for increased turnout due to Trump and leeway made against gerrymandering with our governor pick-ups. It might be because I live in Florida where hope comes to die, but Trump also increases turnout for his base too. They loving love him.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:05
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Mahoning posted:What if Gabby Giffords ran in AZ? Or is she done with political office? I don't know who they're going to run in Arizona, but given that Democrats look to have won Arizona this year with a candidate who seems basically replacement-level - but just barely - it is a winnable race but not a lock. If I had to order the races in terms of most to least flippable it'd be Maine > Colorado > Arizona > North Carolina. All are winnable without needing an ideal candidate or circumstances to change, none are locks.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:05
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Even though it was inappropriate, Obama asking RBG to step down in 2013 so he could appoint another Justice was probably the right move. Why are you bringing Obama into this at all?
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Nov 9, 2018 22:06
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Majorian posted:Ehhhh...the whole cultural appropriation angle of it really skeeves me out. That's not her fault, though, she didn't come up with it. She does own, I just really wish she had resigned when she had the chance. i guess i can't entirely disagree with either of these things, but tbf it wasn't immediately obvious that the GOP was going to take the Senate before the end of Obama's presidency
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Nov 9, 2018 22:07
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Sarcastr0 posted:Why are you bringing Obama into this at all? Why are you responding to Leon Trotsky 2012?
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Nov 9, 2018 22:07
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Crow Jane posted:Remember millennia ago when he asked for 2016 voting records from every state, and just about every governor and election commission told him to gently caress off? Ah, yes, the special committee to investigate elections fraud, what an Infrastructure Week that was!
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Nov 9, 2018 22:07
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Sarcastr0 posted:Why are you bringing Obama into this at all? Because Obama was the one who approached RBG and asked her to retire in 2013. She declined.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:08
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Limiting Senate losses to -2 is crazy for the map this year. The Blue Wave really was tremendous lol. Imagine if the three conservadem losers had run actual good campaigns and not betrayed their base. Coulda picked up a seat, wouldn't that be something.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:08
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my bony fealty posted:Limiting Senate losses to -2 is crazy for the map this year. The Blue Wave really was tremendous lol. Or, equally, mcCaskill could not have possibly won on any platform at all, given the state of missouri.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:10
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Because Obama was the one who approached RBG and asked her to retire in 2013. She declined. RBG really should have taken it, she's smart enough to know that they were going to lose the senate sooner than later.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:11
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my bony fealty posted:Limiting Senate losses to -2 is crazy for the map this year. The Blue Wave really was tremendous lol. I think their votes against Kavanaugh were the right move, both morally and politically, but I think that having to make a vote on Kavanaugh is pretty much what killed them. All three of them had a real shot to win if they could keep the focus on their opposition to obamacare repeal and tax cuts for the rich, but Kavanaugh drowned out their ability to do that.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:11
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