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Spun Dog posted:I believe you are thinking "Wizard" friend Goddamn it
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Nov 10, 2018 01:17
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Lightning Knight posted:I would argue it's likely the Kavanaugh thing probably hosed him, it reportedly cost him all his volunteers which means no GOTV and probably obliterated his standing with Democratic women. It’s absolutely this. Losing your ground game with thirty days out is a death sentence. It’s why Kobach lost, why Crowley lost, and why anybody who thinks they don’t have to do work loses. Don’t demoralize your god damned ground game. They’re made of your base.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:18
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Eltoasto posted:Good news, most of our young people don't vote or care. We are thrilled that their voting surged to like 40%. 40% turnout is actually amazing for the youngest demographics, especially for a midterm. 2014 was only 16% turnout for 18-29. Of course turnout for the 65+ crowd is over 70%, but that’s a huge closing of the gap that should keep loving over the GOP for at least another 3-4 elections.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:18
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evilweasel posted:this is the most bizzare election The Needle loves us and wants us to be happy
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Nov 10, 2018 01:19
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Ague Proof posted:A few months ago it looked like Bredesen would win - he was a seemingly great candidate vs a seemingly terrible candidate. In the end he did about as well as the 3 big losers Democrats, though admittedly without incumbency. He was just stomped. i am sympathetic to high-risk high-reward desparation plays but there was no upside to that idiot decision of his at all
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Nov 10, 2018 01:19
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:I want leftists to take control of the government and I'm not particularly picky how it happens, especially considering the people opposed to it happening will absolutely break every rule that exists to hold on to power. That's great but Democrats aren't a leftist party so cheating to get them in is not a great trade to go all in on. If the Full Communism Now party is in sniffing distance of a take-over, yeah I'm right there with you.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:20
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Lightning Knight posted:I would argue it's likely the Kavanaugh thing probably hosed him, it reportedly cost him all his volunteers which means no GOTV and probably obliterated his standing with Democratic women. it was a real clear signal he wasn't actually a democrat, so i dunno why he'd drop the mask with just a little time left till the election did he actually think republicans would vote for him if he outed himself as diet republican?
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Nov 10, 2018 01:20
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Lightning Knight posted:I would argue it's likely the Kavanaugh thing probably hosed him, it reportedly cost him all his volunteers which means no GOTV and probably obliterated his standing with Democratic women. No it didn't. You're citing a politco report which referred to 22 volunteers and turning it into all his volunteers because... reasons? Stop making poo poo up based on half remembered headlines.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:22
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Your Boy Fancy posted:It’s absolutely this. Losing your ground game with thirty days out is a death sentence. It’s why Kobach lost, why Crowley lost, and why anybody who thinks they don’t have to do work loses. maybe hillary clinton will learn this when she runs in 2020
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Nov 10, 2018 01:22
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When my man, and personal pick for Republican nominee of 2012, Herman "THE MOTHERLUVIN' CAIN TRAIN" Cain says poo poo's in trouble, you better believe it!
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Nov 10, 2018 01:24
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Jaxyon posted:That's great but Democrats aren't a leftist party so cheating to get them in is not a great trade to go all in on.  I feel like I mentioned in a post that I'm not comfortable being in a place where I'm tolerating hypocrisy from my side to the extent that it delivers wins, but I'm kinda there nevertheless because the other side absolutely does not respect the democratic process at all. And now somehow I'm being roped into defending a position where I'm legitimately anti-democracy or something, which is really not the case.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:26
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farraday posted:No it didn't. You're citing a politco report which referred to 22 volunteers and turning it into all his volunteers because... reasons? Stop making poo poo up based on half remembered headlines. "All his volunteers" is hyperbole, granted, but it seems clear that he demoralized his base and that it was a stupid unforced error in a close race. He could just as easily have said "I am not currently in the senate, so I do not have full access to all the information sitting senators have to make an informed decision at this time."
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Nov 10, 2018 01:27
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Lightning Knight posted:"All his volunteers" is hyperbole, granted, but it seems clear that he demoralized his base and that it was a stupid unforced error in a close race. He could just as easily have said "I am not currently in the senate, so I do not have full access to all the information sitting senators have to make an informed decision at this time." it wasn't even like someone asked him! he put out a press release on the issue unsolicited! he was like BOY HOWDY I CANNOT WAIT TO GET INVOLVED IN THIS DECISION EVERYONE ELSE UNDERSTOOD WAS A NO-WIN FOR RED STATE DEMS, AND THEN PICK THE WORSE OPTION
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Nov 10, 2018 01:28
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https://twitter.com/JessicaHuseman/status/1060893861508194305 this warms my heart 
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Nov 10, 2018 01:29
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Is GA still up in the air? Anything happening in regards to the fuckery?
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Nov 10, 2018 01:29
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Oxyclean posted:Is GA still up in the air? Anything happening in regards to the fuckery? As of now Kemp still has over 50%, so no runoff yet. Provisionals still being counted.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:30
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Martian posted:Wait 
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Nov 10, 2018 01:31
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evilweasel posted:it wasn't even like someone asked him! he put out a press release on the issue unsolicited! he was like BOY HOWDY I CANNOT WAIT TO GET INVOLVED IN THIS DECISION EVERYONE ELSE UNDERSTOOD WAS A NO-WIN FOR RED STATE DEMS, AND THEN PICK THE WORSE OPTION Always trust red state Democrats to be massive goobers. I mean poo poo that's not even fair, I ambushed my House candidate last month with a question about what his stance on Trump's concentration camps for immigrants was (I actually worded the question this way lol) and he said "I think that 'concentration camps' is an inflammatory term but I support abolishing ICE" at which I was thoroughly impressed. The district he ran in is like R+20 lol.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:31
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eke out posted:haha everyone hates this guy, so long as they are not required to say on the record that they hate him I probably missed it, but didn't Trump literally say "I never knew the guy"? So now we find out that, in fact, he did know the guy?
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Nov 10, 2018 01:32
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Lightning Knight posted:I would argue it's likely the Kavanaugh thing probably hosed him, it reportedly cost him all his volunteers which means no GOTV and probably obliterated his standing with Democratic women. ehhh i don't see it making up an 11 point deficit
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Nov 10, 2018 01:32
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Meanwhile with his legislative agenda effectively dead the Orange Man has decided gently caress it and gone off to France to pick a fight with Macron instead. I'm admittedly a little worried at how he lashes out in one of the areas where he still has the most control, dealing with international policy and trade. I have no idea what his 2019 agenda other than "BUT THE IMMIGRANTS" could possibly be or if he even gives a remote gently caress. Like he's just spent so much time bitching I and probably most of the world have absolutely no idea what the executive branch's goals are even supposed to be other than appointing judges, immigration and ??????
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Nov 10, 2018 01:32
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SousaphoneColossus posted:ehhh i don't see it making up an 11 point deficit Was it 11% when he said that poo poo or did it get worse later?
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Nov 10, 2018 01:33
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evilweasel posted:it wasn't even like someone asked him! he put out a press release on the issue unsolicited! he was like BOY HOWDY I CANNOT WAIT TO GET INVOLVED IN THIS DECISION EVERYONE ELSE UNDERSTOOD WAS A NO-WIN FOR RED STATE DEMS, AND THEN PICK THE WORSE OPTION On the other hand, he's apparently so stupid that it was only dumb luck he made it as far as he did without giving the election away.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:35
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InsertPotPun posted:Itt's been a long year, I don't blame the writers for getting a bit lazy and uncreative in Arizona  Why is Mine inspector even an elected position?
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Nov 10, 2018 01:36
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Lightning Knight posted:"All his volunteers" is hyperbole, granted, but it seems clear that he demoralized his base and that it was a stupid unforced error in a close race. He could just as easily have said "I am not currently in the senate, so I do not have full access to all the information sitting senators have to make an informed decision at this time." Or, it wasn't actually a close race and rising Republican enthusiasm across a swath of reliably Republican votes in states like TN, IN, MO, and ND made the individual twirls in their races fairly meaningless compared to overall trends. The demographics of their individual states seem far more controlling than pinning things of specific "unforced errors" in an attempt to fill every utterance with moral weight for the regular voter.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:36
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From what I see online, most of the remaining votes in Arizona are in urban areas. McSally would have to win by 6% on the remaining votes to win. And it sounds like most are in Maricopa and Pima where Simena has been winning. Barring shenanigans, this one's over.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:36
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Lightning Knight posted:Was it 11% when he said that poo poo or did it get worse later? 538 predicted (on average) a 6 point defeat the day before the election, i think if he stayed out of the kavanaugh thing he might've lost by less but still lost by a decent margin he probably genuinely thought it would help him because it's the kind of thing that would have helped a red state democrat back around the time he was governor
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Nov 10, 2018 01:36
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Peaceful Anarchy posted:The artists too: How could you not vote for the 2nd guy who looks like he lives in a mine?
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Nov 10, 2018 01:37
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Eeyo posted:I probably missed it, but didn't Trump literally say "I never knew the guy"? So now we find out that, in fact, he did know the guy? "I don't know him" has been Trump's go-to maneuver since way before he even became president. 
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Nov 10, 2018 01:37
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evilweasel posted:i am sympathetic to high-risk high-reward desparation plays but there was no upside to that idiot decision of his at all That's the maddening thing. Unlike the 3 losers he was insulated from the Kavanaugh thing because he didn't have to actually make a statement or vote. Condiv posted:https://twitter.com/JessicaHuseman/status/1060893861508194305 There's a reason the guy most obsessed with voter fraud also has no idea how to win an election fairly, but I can't quite figure it out. Ague Proof fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Nov 10, 2018 |
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Nov 10, 2018 01:38
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RasperFat posted:40% turnout is actually amazing for the youngest demographics, especially for a midterm. 2014 was only 16% turnout for 18-29. if they remain energized, that is, which is why running good candidates is more important than ever
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Nov 10, 2018 01:39
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Donnelly and McCaskill lost by 6 points each while Heitkamp wound up losing by 11 in an election where the overall vote was ~D+9. These are not margins that any given stance on any given issue could overcome. Those three seats were gone as soon as Kennedy retired no matter what their stance wound up being. That Tester won in MT and Manchin won in WV suggests running moderates in red states is still better than running progressives unless you have an extremely good candidate (and the same is true for Republicans, who have hosed up their way into losing at least half a dozen winnable Senate seats this decade by nominating wingnuts in purple states). But overall, if someone like McCaskill loses by 6, the race was never winnable in the first place. e: to put it another way, Cramer could've gotten 0 votes out of Fargo and still won ND fairly comfortably Adar fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Nov 10, 2018 |
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Nov 10, 2018 01:39
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061049737565126656
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Nov 10, 2018 01:39
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VH4Ever posted:Yeah I don't want to live in this country anymore. https://twitter.com/GaryLegum/status/1061035050853154816
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Nov 10, 2018 01:39
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farraday posted:No it didn't. You're citing a politco report which referred to 22 volunteers and turning it into all his volunteers because... reasons? Stop making poo poo up based on half remembered headlines. Were you out there on that beat? Because losing 22 volunteers would cripple most campaigns. If you’ve got a better view, I’m curious to know more.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:40
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Eeyo posted:I probably missed it, but didn't Trump literally say "I never knew the guy"? So now we find out that, in fact, he did know the guy? quote:President Trump on Friday sought to play down speculation that he had appointed Matthew G. Whitaker acting attorney general to curtail the special counsel investigation, telling reporters that he hasn’t spoken to him about the probe. 
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Nov 10, 2018 01:41
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Peaceful Anarchy posted:Why is Mine inspector even an elected position? I don't know but AZ is literally the only state that does that. Something about them being a mining state through and through I guess. The D candidate in this case didn't seem much of a better pick than R guy, almost to the contrary, he seemed to be a bit of a windbag.
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Nov 10, 2018 01:43
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 looks like bipartisanship isn't as popular as claimed
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Nov 10, 2018 01:43
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Hey now it could've woken up his young adult children, can we have some civility please 
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Nov 10, 2018 01:43
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Peaceful Anarchy posted:The artists too: more importantly, why does one of them look like an old timey prospector?
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Nov 10, 2018 01:45
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