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Hellblazer187 posted:Someone in this thread posted making a comment about the Socialist Rifle Association earlier today. I was probed for mod sass at the time, and I am deeply sorry because cat jail is scary and lonely. Anyways, is the SRA a real thing? Is it some guy who takes $25 and then that's it? Is it a honeypot so you get added to some list by the FBI? I do sort of believe the left should start arming itself, and I don't know anything about guns and so maybe their literature would be good for me. I live outside of the US and can't legally arm myself in this country but if I ever return to the US I'm interested so if anyone knows whether SRA is real or a big scam or just a way to get in trouble please let me know. this would probably be the best thread to ask about socialism + guns: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3846199
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Nov 10, 2018 02:28
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Hellblazer187 posted:Someone in this thread posted making a comment about the Socialist Rifle Association earlier today. I was probed for mod sass at the time, and I am deeply sorry because cat jail is scary and lonely. Anyways, is the SRA a real thing? Is it some guy who takes $25 and then that's it? Is it a honeypot so you get added to some list by the FBI? I do sort of believe the left should start arming itself, and I don't know anything about guns and so maybe their literature would be good for me. I live outside of the US and can't legally arm myself in this country but if I ever return to the US I'm interested so if anyone knows whether SRA is real or a big scam or just a way to get in trouble please let me know. It seems legitimate.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:28
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nerdz posted:Why is "mine inspector" even a partisan government position to begin with? In 1912 the idea was to take the power from the mine owners and give it to the electorate because people were dying in mines a little too nonstop to be palatable. Of course 100 years later and political parties got into it and it's basically the opposite of the idea it was started for
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Nov 10, 2018 02:31
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Condiv posted:so why do you think he lost then? shouldn't him shifting hard right ala manchin have netted him a win if tennessee and west virginia are as similar as you claim? How is me saying Kavanaugh wasn't the key part of the race the same as me saying his support should have netted him the win because Manchin supported Kavanaugh and he won? It's literally the opposite of that. How is it all of you are so bad at understanding anything other than your own preferred narrative for anything? I literally went back and reread my posts to make sure because this gaslighting you're doing is bullshit.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:31
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Update: Dem is now ahead in CA-10 after another vote dump. Fun fact: The R used to be my representative until 2013, when I got redistricted to...Devin Nunes.  https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1061065602079420416
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Nov 10, 2018 02:31
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nerdz posted:Why is "mine inspector" even a partisan government position to begin with? It was invented to hype the upcoming Deadwood movie.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:32
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farraday posted:How is me saying Kavanaugh wasn't the key part of the race the same as me saying his support should have netted him the win because Manchin supported Kavanaugh and he won? It's literally the opposite of that. How is it all of you are so bad at understanding anything other than your own preferred narrative for anything? so why do you think he lost then?
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Nov 10, 2018 02:32
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nerdz posted:Why is "mine inspector" even a partisan government position to begin with? Democratic mine inspectors will tunnel to the border and let in hordes of gang members to take your jobs, and also not work.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:32
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Adar posted:McCaskill wasnt just any moderate, she was a very good politician running for a third term in a seat she should have lost six years ago if she hadn't maneuvered the wingnut into winning his side of the primary. She knew exactly how to handle her race and still lost after taking a tough vote. The progressives who (probably) lost in Florida and Georgia were not going to have an easier time of it in Missouri. If savvy moderate democrats can’t win those states and progressives can’t win those states then I guess you just don’t think democrats can win them so they might as well run candidates who don’t have a bunch of lovely views if they’re going to lose anyway. And course progressives lost by very slim margins in places where Democrats have recently been wiped out. Beto lost by about 2.5 percent. Cruz beat his last opponent by 16%. Deal ran about 8 points better than his opponent in 2014. Kemp is about 1.5% better than Abrams and still might end up in a runoff. Gillum got closer than popular former governor Charlie Crist, and will likely end up in a recount. All three progressives did better than Dems the previous cycle. Meanwhile every blue dog did significantly worse including Manchin, who won by a significantly lower margin that 2012.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:33
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Hellblazer187 posted:Someone in this thread posted making a comment about the Socialist Rifle Association earlier today. I was probed for mod sass at the time, and I am deeply sorry because cat jail is scary and lonely. Anyways, is the SRA a real thing? Is it some guy who takes $25 and then that's it? Is it a honeypot so you get added to some list by the FBI? I do sort of believe the left should start arming itself, and I don't know anything about guns and so maybe their literature would be good for me. I live outside of the US and can't legally arm myself in this country but if I ever return to the US I'm interested so if anyone knows whether SRA is real or a big scam or just a way to get in trouble please let me know. As far as I know, there is a Socialist RA Reddit which makes cosplay items like patches, stickers, and membership cards while the actual groups are more locally based and not under any overarching umbrella.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:36
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I randomly remembered that story about the little Vermont state house race where the candidates played a duet after their debate. The Democrat Cellist easily beat the Republican guitar player. https://www.apnews.com/b667bb841ee84804b0c64258fac7457c
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Nov 10, 2018 02:38
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Condiv posted:tennessee and wv don't even share a border so i'm not sure how you claim geographic proximity means it should've been fine for him since it didn't sink manchin I mean you can offer the same thoughts and prayers that they offer to victims of mass shootings.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:38
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MAGAs are completely melting down right now and threatening civil war: Jeff Flake wants Ben's rear end to primary Trump: quote:Flake gave at least some credence to the widespread speculation that he might mount a quixotic primary campaign against Trump, given the retiring senator’s public fretting about the state of the party. The Arizona GOP senator, who has visited New Hampshire recently, is decidedly keeping his name out there. Ague Proof fucked around with this message at 02:44 on Nov 10, 2018 |
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Nov 10, 2018 02:40
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Are we all forgetting that both Donnelly and McKaskill got lightning-strikes-twice-in-the-same-place level lucky in that they both ran against pro-rape candidates when it was still considered a bad thing in the GOP?
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Nov 10, 2018 02:41
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Ague Proof posted:MAGAs are completely melting down right now and threatening civil war. They are going to sell sooooooo many books.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:42
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Rigel posted:I randomly remembered that story about the little Vermont state house race where the candidates played a duet after their debate. The Democrat Cellist easily beat the Republican guitar player. i just don't understand what possesses a democrat to play a song with their racist opponent this idea of "oh i can raise a beer with the racist across the aisle!" is p sickening
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Nov 10, 2018 02:42
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Condiv posted:i just don't understand what possesses a democrat to play a song with their racist opponent A Vermont republican is probably more of a democrat than most red state dems.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:44
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farraday posted:So, you're telling me this one statement cost Bredsden the election when one Senator who voted for Kavanaugh in a nearby state won his election and three who votes against lost by similar margins? Extraordinary claims require extra ordinary proof, but sure you want me to be the one to have to prove the negative that a single statement didn't cost him the election. 1. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html Bredesen started dipping in the polls right around the time he endorsed Kavanaugh on October 5. https://twitter.com/robillard/status/1048223793649524737 Politicians may be able to sleep at night by contorting themselves to support whatever will get them elected, but volunteers don't want to be complicit in it. The poll is the main corroborating evidence of the Politico article previously discussed. 2. I'm from Nashville, where Bredesen won by 70%, and even the people on /r/nashville have been talking about holding their noses for Bredesen to vote against Blackburn 3. Manchin supported Gorsuch and does this on the regular, so they're probably used to it. We expected better from Bredesen than to be moderate on rape by issuing some statement calling Ford a hero and wishing he had access to the FBI report that incumbent senators have, while leaving out they had 24 hours to read 1,000 pages galenanorth fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Nov 10, 2018 |
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Nov 10, 2018 02:48
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it's going to own when trump makes it a regular line at his rallies that McSally was a low energy coward because she's not participating in their game https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1061070671466381312
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Nov 10, 2018 02:58
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"Endorsing Kavanaugh hurt Bredesen and his campaign" is a factually sound statement. "Endorsing Kavanaugh caused Bredesen to lose by 10 points" is not. 10 points swings are the kind of things that accompany major scandals or criminal indictments, and even then, not always. Especially in our modern landscape, way too many voters have their preference locked in due to partisan affiliation, and way smaller margins are ever in play, much less late in the game due to one comment. Bredesen never had a chance. But he definitely dug himself in a little deeper.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:58
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Condiv posted:so why do you think he lost then? Why do I think a Democrat lost a statewide election in Tennessee? The same reason they've done so for a decade, which, and this may shock you, isn't about Kavanaugh. Yes, candidates matter and great candidates can matter a great deal even if they end up losing in the end, but Tennessee has been shifting Republican hard on the back of conservative populism in a mid south state with a small minority population. Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia should not be thought of as recently democratic states(and commonwealth) they're hard republican ones. It makes as much sense to claim Corey Stewart lost VA because he was too pro confederacy. The shifts in TN and VA are strong and durable, although in opposite directions, and they aren't occurring because of anything one candidate said or did.
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Nov 10, 2018 02:59
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https://youtu.be/lSjlFhRRW0g Not sure where protest dog fits on the tax scale, whether marx, bernie, or pelosi. Seems to be supporting the fight, sans test anywho. Thanks, Loukanikos. 
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Nov 10, 2018 03:00
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Okay, this thread suddenly got a lot quieter. What's happening with AZ?
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Nov 10, 2018 03:04
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Mr Interweb posted:Are we all forgetting that both Donnelly and McKaskill got lightning-strikes-twice-in-the-same-place level lucky in that they both ran against pro-rape candidates when it was still considered a bad thing in the GOP? I think you'll find that pro-rape candidates weren't that rare even before it was considered okay by the gop.
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Nov 10, 2018 03:06
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Mr Interweb posted:Okay, this thread suddenly got a lot quieter. What's happening with AZ? Dems won the fight on how to count ballot, last update has Sinema up 20k votes
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Nov 10, 2018 03:07
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galenanorth posted:1. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html Around is doing a lot of work there. CBS News/YouGov 10/2 - 10/5 871 LV -- 50 42 Blackburn +8 FOX News 9/29 - 10/2 666 LV 3.5 48 43 Blackburn +5 Both polls majorly fielded before those remarks and he's down. This is the rare pre hoc fallacy. Furthermore absent one shock CNN poll claiming 50% Bredsden's support is incredibly consistent across all polls and in line with his final tally. What happened was Republican votes came home to Blackburn. I somehow doubt this was caused by lack of Democratic enthusiasm.
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Nov 10, 2018 03:07
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Condiv posted:i just don't understand what possesses a democrat to play a song with their racist opponent Are you talking about a specific news story about this guy or do you have like the most terminal case of edgy dramatic internet teen ever recorded? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 10, 2018 03:08
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Mr Interweb posted:Okay, this thread suddenly got a lot quieter. What's happening with AZ? They'll be updating the AZ counts here every day at 5pm local time: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 (not sure if updates will happen during the weekend)
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Nov 10, 2018 03:08
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Colorado Decides, 2020! My first post, covering the Presidential and House elections in general My second post, covering the Senate and Governor elections in general North Carolina Presidential, Senate, & Governor Races We continue looking into the crystal ball at races two years out, so I can smugly announce all the poo poo I correctly predict in two years. Colorado is a Western state, and the 21st most populous. Denver is the capital and largest city. Unlike its surrounding neighbors, Colorado is a socially liberal state, with same-sex marriage and recreational cannabis being legalized in 2014. It's also the home of Focus on the Family, James Dobson's evangelical organization that stringently opposes LGBT and abortion rights. The median household income is $70,566, the 8th highest in the nation. As of the 2010 census, Colorado is 70% non-hispanic white, 21% Hispanic, 4% black, and 7.2% "Other". 42% of the people residing in Colorado were born there. While the Hispanic population continues to grow in Colorado, a large portion of that population is White Hispanic, resulting in a different racial dynamic in Colorado compared to states like Arizona. Between being a social liberal "Mountain state" and mostly white "Spanish state", Colorado is a rather unique place. Also blah blah increasing urbanization and growing diversity. Presidential Election Colorado has 9 electoral votes. Before 2004, Colorado was a fairly reliable Republican state. However, Barack Obama won the state with 53.7% of the vote in 2008, and 51.5% of the vote in 2012. Hillary Clinton won the state 48.1% to Trump's 43.3% - Gary Johnson won 5.2% of the vote. Despite being a relatively new swing state, I would say that Colorado is a strong Lean Democrat state. Donald Trump won El Paso County (Home of Colorado Spring's Focus on the Family), while Clinton outperformed in Denver and the surrounding counties. Trump did particularly poorly (and Johnson particularly well) in counties like Jefferson and Adams - suburb counties that used to be Republican strongholds. Trump's problems with suburb voters have only gotten worse, and Colorado Spring bible-thumpers aren't nearly enough to beat Denver, home of the best Pride Parade outside of San Francisco and Tel Aviv. 2 years is a long time, but I think the only question on election night is going to be whether the Democratic candidate wins with a majority or a plurality of votes. Like North Carolina, it likely won't be the pivotal state, but Republicans have limited paths to the White House without it. Senate Election Cory Gardner is the junior Republican Senator for Colorado, along with Michael Bennet (D-CO). Gardner was Colorado's 4th district Representative in the House from 2010, and elected a member of the state legislature in 2004. He's the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, ranking him Sixth in Senate Republican leadership. He defeated incumbent Mark Udall with 48.2% to Udall's 46.3% of the vote. As of writing, it looks like the Senate may end up being a 53-47 split, and the Democrats are going to pour a lot of money into flipping Gardner's seat back in 2020. Gardner has "evolved" his views on gay rights and abortion as he went from the House to the Senate. Despite Udall's efforts to focus on those issues, Colorado seemed to consider gay marriage and access to abortion relatively settled issues. Gardner has built something of a bipartisan reputation for himself, but has reiterated that he believes that marriage is between a man and woman. Like Tillis in North Carolina, Gardner has the potential to overperform Trump with suburban voters, and it's unlikely that the Trump campaign will be a major presence in the state. That said, I believe Colorado is going to care deeply about gay rights and abortion, and that is going to hurt Gardner badly. I would consider it one of the strongest potential flips for the Democratic party. House of Representatives Colorado has 7 districts. Despite an initiative to create an independent redistricting commission modeled on the one used in California, it seems unlikely that gerrymandering is a major factor in Colorado. In the 2018 election, the Democrats split the state 4-3, gaining one seat. I talked to the mod over the Traditional Games forum, he said we can move the old Trump thread there but we have to hide it as a particularly ornate game of Nomic. It's fairly unlikely that the Democrats can pick up any additional seats in this state, but also unlikely that they lose more than one seat either. This one was shorter because, well... Colorado is kind of weird and you can't make as many predictions about it. Which state would you like to cover next, or make a request:
Arizona (Senate seat) Maine (Senate seat)
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Nov 10, 2018 03:10
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It's possible to simultaneously want candidates to be more leftist while also accepting some states make that a difficult prospect. The evidence doesn't seem to show that being more progressive hurt most candidates though, it was the blue dogs who lost badly, the more typical Dems did fine and the outright progressives did great, idk how pulling Texas to a margin narrower than three from what, 16 the last time round, can be called a catastrophe.Owlofcreamcheese posted:Are you talking about a specific news story about this guy or do you have like the most terminal case of edgy dramatic internet teen ever recorded? l i t e r a l l y the post they quoted my dude
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Nov 10, 2018 03:12
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Tibalt posted:This one was shorter because, well... Colorado is kind of weird and you can't make as many predictions about it. Which state would you like to cover next, or make a request: Do Maine. Despite being right on the border to Canada I still know less about it than pretty much any other state.
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Nov 10, 2018 03:14
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farraday posted:Around is doing a lot of work there. There was definitely a drop in volunteer enthusiasm afterwards though. He probably would have still lost, but g'drat way to demoralize your GOTV team when you need it most. Aw shucky ducky
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Nov 10, 2018 03:15
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SousaphoneColossus posted:ehhh i don't see it making up an 11 point deficit It wasn't an 11-point deficit when he opened his mouth on Kav: 
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Nov 10, 2018 03:15
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YOLOsubmarine posted:If savvy moderate democrats can’t win those states and progressives can’t win those states then I guess you just don’t think democrats can win them so they might as well run candidates who don’t have a bunch of lovely views if they’re going to lose anyway. If no one can win, which is pretty much a given in IN/MO/ND as of now, then yeah you run whoever revitalizes the party the most in the long run ie either a progressive or some guy with a history in the state who can keep it close and make the GOP waste money. That no one could win there wasn't obvious six months ago, but now it is. If the voters don't care and just push the D button or the R button, as demonstrated by the identical vote totals for Gillum/Nelson, you obviously also run a progressive. If the seat is being held down by a smart moderate and the prog replacement would lose by infinity, for gently caress's sake don't primary them or touch them and let them do what they want as long as they vote for the right majority leader and keep their heads down. The GOP has done their best to avoid learning this which is why they don't have 60 Senate seats right now and why McCaskill/Donnelly both had seats to begin with. If the seat is held by Doug Jones, shrug and hope Roy Moore wins the primary again next time.
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Nov 10, 2018 03:17
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Maine
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Nov 10, 2018 03:17
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Mr Interweb posted:Okay, this thread suddenly got a lot quieter. What's happening with AZ? The gist as I understand it? - They're still counting and there's a bunch of mail in ballots that they're trying to confirm signatures for, but the Democrat has taken a narrow lead over the Republican. - Republicans filed a lawsuit to stop Dem leaning districts from trying to confirm those ballots on the grounds that they should have never been able to do it past election day, the Dem districts have until the 14th, and that's unfair to republican districts that have closer deadlines. - Judge said "Ok, so why don't we treat all Arizona voters equally and give every district until the 14th deadline to make sure every vote counts?" - A bunch of posters either didn't read the story and assumed the Democrats gave up something to enfranchise Republican voters or are just mad that Dems didn't actively try and suppress Republican votes or something completely the antithesis of everything we on the left have been saying about how wrong voter suppression is. - Bunch more votes came in giving the Dem more of a lead. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 03:32 on Nov 10, 2018 |
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Nov 10, 2018 03:21
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Willa Rogers posted:It wasn't an 11-point deficit when he opened his mouth on Kav: Yeesh. I stand corrected.
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Nov 10, 2018 03:22
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Willa Rogers posted:It wasn't an 11-point deficit when he opened his mouth on Kav: Once again, his polling stayed the same, the Republicans rebounded hard. All of this is people putting all their stock into one poll that claimed he had 50% when almost every other poll had him within the normal 2% margin of error for his final tally of 44%.
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Nov 10, 2018 03:26
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Furnaceface posted:Do Maine. Despite being right on the border to Canada I still know less about it than pretty much any other state. Do you know what New England is? It's the backwoods of that.
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Nov 10, 2018 03:26
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farraday posted:Around is doing a lot of work there. His crowd discussions in which he declined to say how he would vote may have influenced some of the earlier polls. Tennessee's RealClearPolitics graph shows Bredesen and Blackburn's graphs dramatically diverged, while in other states the graphs remained parallel or converged.
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Nov 10, 2018 03:26
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