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DACK FAYDEN posted:How relevant is flipping AZ's Secretary of State? In most states, secretary of state (due to control of the election process) is a stunningly important role that flies under the radar. How important depends on how much that state's Republicans are willing to abuse it, something I can't comment on for AZ (on the one hand, they're republicans, on the other hand the state republicans seem to have largely played by the rules in this current count unlike the Florida Republicans).
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Nov 12, 2018 16:33
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evilweasel posted:In most states, secretary of state (due to control of the election process) is a stunningly important role that flies under the radar. How important depends on how much that state's Republicans are willing to abuse it, something I can't comment on for AZ (on the one hand, they're republicans, on the other hand the state republicans seem to have largely played by the rules in this current count unlike the Florida Republicans). Maricopa County now has a Democratic County Recorder, which has been a great improvement. He just got sued for contacting people who had a signature mismatch on their ballots and getting them fixed. The Republican party claimed it was unfair because the Republican counties just throw those ballots out.
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Nov 12, 2018 16:40
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friendbot2000 posted:So with Wexton winning that means VA is gonna havd a special election. Any goons wanting to put their boots on the ground should report to Your Boy Fancy's inbox for marching orders. I love you dearly, and I need you to switch to tea until Northam declares the election dates.  Anyway, Let's Talk About VA-SEN-33.  Look at this loving district. This is it. This is the western suburbs of Northern Virginia, part of what's been driving such a huge chunk of statewide turnout. All of this is outside the Beltway. Much of this is developments that have popped up in the last twenty years. Population: 300,000 people, nearly doubling since its formation in 2011. Jesus. That southwestern chunk? That's Aldie. That town didn't even EXIST outside of a post office not too long ago, and now it's this massive, thriving Indian immigrant community. They're the reason we have a Bollywood FM station in the area, and a ton of them have good union middle-class jobs. In the southeast? That's Chantilly, where everyone who wants to be near to the Beltway and the Metro without actually paying what that housing costs ended up. Heading north, you run into all the new developments that caused Metro to put the Silver Line down, creating the Dulles Tech Corridor. That's where AOL came from. (It's still there!) Ashburn is basically suburbs and server farms and the NFL team's practice facility. The airport is just about in the middle of the district, and IAD employs 19,000 people as of 2015. That airport is meaningful. Up north, you have Leesburg, a sleepy town that used to basically be a cute stop-off as you went to the parts of West Virginia that DC types like visiting on weekends, but it's blown up into an exurb of its own. This district has a bit of luster to it: its first state senator was Mark Herring, who went on to be elected Attorney General in 2013. A special election was called to replace him (funny enough, my first canvassing event!) where Jennifer Wexton took the spot. As the state senate is a four-year term, and the Virginia state legislative season is about ten weeks (annual salary: $18,000) and then it's back to reality, that leaves state senators a lot of time to work on whatever they want, and Wexton spent her time building her bona fides to run for a particularly crowded field to take Barbara Comstock out of the US House of Representative, which she did handily (56-43, 40,000 votes). Which means we'll have a winter special to fill out the rest of the term, which will be served through November 2019. One can assume a few of the names from the 2018 VA-10 primary will show up, but who's to say who will appear in the race from the GOP side? The bench is looking a bit bare suddenly, as Republicans have been dropping like flies out of the north, and the primary base is still demanding at least three consumed babies before they'll even let your rear end on the ballot. If you didn't know, Virginia Republican primaries are a loving horror show, giving us such luminaries as Ken Cuccinelli of transvaginal ultrasound fame, EW Jackson, who believes yoga is how Satan enters your body, the ill-fated "Kill Rape Control" campaign of Ed Gillespie, and most recently, Minnesotan neo-Confederate thunderbastard Corey Stewart, who was greeted by a hearty  by the entire state as he proceeded to get pasted in the general. You can't run on the Confederacy statewide in Virginia, y'all. But that never seems to stop them!That election will be declared sometime during the holiday season. So take a moment to breathe, electorally anyway, and then gear up. VA-SEN-33 elections always happen in the rain and the snow. All will be well, if we do the work.
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Nov 12, 2018 18:01
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Can't stop, won't stop the enthusiasm machine Fancy But I will tone it down while I collect scalps for the special election to come help out. Got a list of 3 people outside of Goon Squad willing to put boots on the ground this holiday season for you when you are ready to pull the trigger. You got any murmurs of any good hopefuls? My kingdom for an environmentalist.
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Nov 12, 2018 21:52
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evilweasel posted:In most states, secretary of state (due to control of the election process) is a stunningly important role that flies under the radar. How important depends on how much that state's Republicans are willing to abuse it, something I can't comment on for AZ (on the one hand, they're republicans, on the other hand the state republicans seem to have largely played by the rules in this current count unlike the Florida Republicans). My limited understanding as a local is AZ's got County Recorders for each county who are mostly responsible for the actual running of elections, the AZ SoS office is only responsible for receiving and reporting the results from the counties AFAIK. e: the County Recorder is also an elected partisan position to be clear
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Nov 13, 2018 00:15
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https://twitter.com/zatchry/status/1062117719292735489
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Nov 13, 2018 00:18
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It's still a good take. If being one of the most conservative Democrats in the House was a good strategy, she should be leaving her opponent in the dust, not doing barely better than other Democrats running in statewide offices. Edit: Katie Hobbs is in the lead again! 
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Nov 13, 2018 00:31
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Getting SoS would be great. That Republican is a Kemp in waiting. Michael Tracy was violently acosta'd by... Maxine Waters. Ague Proof fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Nov 13, 2018 |
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Nov 13, 2018 00:44
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:It's still a good take. If being one of the most conservative Democrats in the House was a good strategy, she should be leaving her opponent in the dust, not doing barely better than other Democrats running in statewide offices. it's a dumb take because sinema is both winning and running 8 points ahead of the actual progressive Dem governor candidate who ultimately got wiped out 56-41 quote:Garcia's 2018 bid focuses on supporting Medicare For All,[9] raising income taxes to spend more on education initiatives,[10] and opposing a wall along Arizona's southern border with Mexico.[11] He also supports a “top-to-bottom” overhaul of ICE.[12] Garcia's candidacy for governor has been compared to the candidacies of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.[13] I don't particularly like Sinema, and I also would like to live in a world where running unashamedly to the left in Arizona is one weird trick to get you elected but we don't live in that world (yet)
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Nov 13, 2018 00:52
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Speaking of kemp have we had any news on that?
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Nov 13, 2018 01:00
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I think it's important to compare spending on the Gubernatorial and Senate races if we're going to compare the two. For the senate race, Sinema spent at least as much as her opponent, including outside spending. For the Governor's race, Ducey outspent Garcia like crazy. I'm willing to accept that Kyrsten's conservative stances have contributed to her ability to raise money, but the downballot races didn't need to sprint to the right in order to win.
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Nov 13, 2018 01:02
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SousaphoneColossus posted:it's a dumb take because sinema is both winning and running 8 points ahead of the actual progressive Dem governor candidate who ultimately got wiped out 56-41 Comparing an open seat to a race with a popular incumbent seems disingenuous
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Nov 13, 2018 01:09
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VitalSigns posted:Comparing an open seat to a race with a popular incumbent seems disingenuous yes, we don't have a perfect test case where both the senate and the governor's race were open seats, but 15 points is a lot. If the thesis that strong progressive/leftists are inherently stronger electorally than centrists is supposed to be that compelling, you'd think it would have made a bigger dent in that total, and we wouldn't need to factor in a bunch of caveats about incumbent popularity and fundraising. Again, I take no pleasure in saying this, but this kind of magical thinking doesn't instantly make non-lovely democrats more electable
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Nov 13, 2018 01:23
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VitalSigns posted:Comparing an open seat to a race with a popular incumbent seems disingenuous A 15 point loss is still a crushing defeat, especially when the candidate is upholding the Correct Policies that the left insists is the key to victory. LinYutang fucked around with this message at 01:26 on Nov 13, 2018 |
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Nov 13, 2018 01:24
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I'm honestly not trying to poo poo on efforts to move the Dems left at all; I absolutely want that too. But sometimes, in places like Arizona, it's not going to work the way we want right away, and we'll have to put up with a crappier Dem until we can find one that is better ideologically and can win both a primary and a general.
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Nov 13, 2018 01:38
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Regardless of what you want to see happen, at the very least you need to acknowledge when your suggested method fails. Otherwise you will never improve.
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Nov 13, 2018 01:40
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I think Sean McElwee said this but the left would probably get a lot more seats primarying people in safe D seats than reaching for swing states. It sucks though that a couple of the better places to do this (CA, WA) use top two so you’d be vulnerable to Republicans deciding to vote for the relatively more conservative incumbent. Ocasio Cortez, Tlaib, and Omar are a better model than Garcia.
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Nov 13, 2018 01:50
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It’s almost as if local populace and individual curb appeal mean more than a checklist or Twitter game There is no silver bullet candidate, and sometimes you just gotta trudge the road with the voters you’ve got. If you can’t be good, you can at least demonstrably not suck (Jealous, Donnelly, McCaskill, etc)
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Nov 13, 2018 01:51
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It's official! (?) https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152
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Nov 13, 2018 01:54
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Spiffster posted:Speaking of kemp have we had any news on that? deadline is 5pm tomorrow https://www.ajc.com/news/state--reg...LnhZatRCs4WhBO/
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Nov 13, 2018 01:54
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Badger of Basra posted:I think Sean McElwee said this but the left would probably get a lot more seats primarying people in safe D seats than reaching for swing states. It sucks though that a couple of the better places to do this (CA, WA) use top two so you’d be vulnerable to Republicans deciding to vote for the relatively more conservative incumbent. It looks like Republicans went for de Leon over Feinstein.
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Nov 13, 2018 01:55
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Badger of Basra posted:I think Sean McElwee said this but the left would probably get a lot more seats primarying people in safe D seats than reaching for swing states. It sucks though that a couple of the better places to do this (CA, WA) use top two so you’d be vulnerable to Republicans deciding to vote for the relatively more conservative incumbent. On the side of courtesy "fairness," conservatives being able to have a meaningful choice in a place like CA or NY (between a progressive and a moderate) is kind of a feature. And progressives being able to field an actual socialist candidate without risking a "safe seat" loss to a fascist is also a solid feature. In short, the jungle is good for safe seats, and traditional party primaries are good for swing seats.
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Nov 13, 2018 01:59
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Ague Proof posted:It looks like Republicans went for de Leon over Feinstein. Mainly because De Leon didn’t campaign and they all think Feinstein is an actual communist, so anyone else must be better. I’m incredibly doubtful he would have gotten those votes if he had gone around campaigning on M4A. Not to say he wouldn’t have won over people who ended up voting for Feinstein, though.
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Nov 13, 2018 02:00
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Badger of Basra posted:I think Sean McElwee said this but the left would probably get a lot more seats primarying people in safe D seats than reaching for swing states. It sucks though that a couple of the better places to do this (CA, WA) use top two so you’d be vulnerable to Republicans deciding to vote for the relatively more conservative incumbent. I think it's also a good idea to run socialists in deep red seats because, like, why not gamble? Electability isn't a concern there, either, so take the opportunity for some real life conservative crossover focus testing.
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Nov 13, 2018 03:13
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luxury handset posted:deadline is 5pm tomorrow From the article... quote:Many absentee ballots were rejected in Gwinnett because voters filled out incorrect direct dates of birth or provided insufficient information on the return envelope. I wonder how the heck someone gives an "incorrect" date of birth unless they're being kind of casual as to how something isn't correct. Bad handwriting? I must have led a really sheltered life if this is some weird form of bad faith electoral trick I haven't heard of. Dr. Arbitrary posted:It's still a good take. If being one of the most conservative Democrats in the House was a good strategy, she should be leaving her opponent in the dust, not doing barely better than other Democrats running in statewide offices. Barely better is still better though, no? I think the dynamics are different for a high profile Senate election than a less high profile state office. I wish candidates would try to succeed through establishing their uniqueness as opposed to catering to a bland middle, but sometimes you have to work with the voters you've got. Maybe I'm doing the voters of Arizona a disservice, but I thought that state still leaned conservative and old.
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Nov 13, 2018 03:28
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Absurd Alhazred posted:It's official! (?) This is a relief, and that is a very Good Dog.
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Nov 13, 2018 03:33
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GHOST_BUTT posted:This is a relief, and that is a very Good Dog. I'm a huge fan of how it sits on a couch.
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Nov 13, 2018 04:34
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drilldo squirt posted:I'm a huge fan of how it sits on a couch. You don't get that level of obedience through liberal dog training. 
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Nov 13, 2018 04:43
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SousaphoneColossus posted:Why shouldn't a staunch M4A-advocating progressive be able to even run a decently close race rather than lose by 15 points, even against a decently popular incumbent? So we should cherrypick results, ignore massive confounding variables like incumbency and money, and ignore results that disagree with your thesis like Beto's progressive campaign running better in a red state than the centrist senators that got crushed the instant Campaign Obama wasn't around to drag them over the finish line. And of course ignore that the avatar of careful triangulating centrism lost to an idiot reality TV star in 2016 and brought the whole government down with her. Sounds good to me Hillary 2020!
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Nov 13, 2018 06:20
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VitalSigns posted:So we should cherrypick results, ignore massive confounding variables like incumbency and money, and ignore results that disagree with your thesis like Beto's progressive campaign running better in a red state than the centrist senators that got crushed the instant Campaign Obama wasn't around to drag them over the finish line. And of course ignore that the avatar of careful triangulating centrism lost to an idiot reality TV star in 2016 and brought the whole government down with her.  calm down, you're projecting. read the rest of the thread and others' responses on this. i wasn't talking about the 2016 election which bernie most likely would have won.
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Nov 13, 2018 06:27
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It's almost like the results from this round of elections are mixed, instead of proving that if they want to win Democrats need to adopt my policy and messaging preferences
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Nov 13, 2018 06:27
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One thing I'm really happy to see is that, at least in Arizona, Republicans aren't getting free seats anymore. In 2020, if things keep moving this way, Arizona's legislature will be blue.
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Nov 13, 2018 06:43
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Brony Car posted:You don't get that level of obedience through liberal dog training. False, my golden retriever does that all the time and the only three things he cares about are that I get the right brand of kibble, that only registered voters are allowed to pet him during registration drives, and that capitalism is the prime driver of human misery.
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Nov 13, 2018 07:33
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VitalSigns posted:So we should cherrypick results, ignore massive confounding variables like incumbency and money, and ignore results that disagree with your thesis like Beto's progressive campaign running better in a red state than the centrist senators that got crushed the instant Campaign Obama wasn't around to drag them over the finish line. And of course ignore that the avatar of careful triangulating centrism lost to an idiot reality TV star in 2016 and brought the whole government down with her. Are you ignoring the fact that a super progressive super charismatic governor candidate didn’t even perform as well as a lovely centrist Senator on the same ballot? Are you also ignoring the fact that Beto ran against one of the most unlikeable politicians in America, even in his own party? And STILL lost? Jesus for someone who is complaining about ignoring confounding variables and cherry picking results, you seem to have done an awful lot of it yourself. It’s almost as if the answer isn’t as simple as you make it out to be. But yes, continue on about Hillary, because everyone totally wants to hear you talk about that.
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Nov 13, 2018 13:07
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Yall are the ones saying a single senate versus governor race in one state proves that centrism is the winningest platform. I'm pointing out that not only do you have to ignore huge confounding factors in Arizona to reach that conclusion, you also have to ignore contradictory results from the same election: Beto's progressive campaign outran a centrist gubernatorial candidate in Texas by the same margin. The response I'm getting is "hm VitalSigns maybe it's more complicated than a single simplistic interpretation of one race, did you think of that", and great I agree that's in fact the point I'm making.
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Nov 13, 2018 13:25
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Mahoning posted:Are you ignoring the fact that a super progressive super charismatic governor candidate didn’t even perform as well as a lovely centrist Senator on the same ballot? Which race are you talking about here?
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Nov 13, 2018 13:25
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Florida, I am assuming?
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Nov 13, 2018 13:27
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VitalSigns posted:Yall are the ones saying a single senate versus governor race in one state proves that centrism is the winningest platform. Literally no one is saying this.
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Nov 13, 2018 13:27
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My hot take is that different places like different candidates sometimes. And Florida is racist.
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Nov 13, 2018 14:30
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PerniciousKnid posted:My hot take is that different places like different candidates sometimes. And Florida is racist. *Reviews Obama vs Bill Nelson results from 2012* Checks out.
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Nov 13, 2018 14:41
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