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TurboFlamingChicken posted:I like how it ended up being a Blue Wave it just took us days after the midterms to realize it deepstate putting the fix in
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Nov 13, 2018 02:50
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Florida is a joke
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Nov 13, 2018 02:50
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WampaLord posted:The 2012 post-Romney autopsy report of the party said "Wow, we really need to start attracting Hispanic voters or we are hosed!" turns out shameless racism is more powerful, even in 2018, and having a black president didn't change anything (surprise!) Zeroisanumber posted:So what was the cause of that weird bump on 538 that made everyone think that the GOP would gain in the House for about a half-hour on election night?
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Nov 13, 2018 02:52
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Lawman 0 posted:That lady is spectacularly incompetent of course she is, Jeb! appointed her for a reason
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Nov 13, 2018 02:52
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Spergin Morlock posted:I just wish I wasn't surprised that Gosar won his election despite his entire family calling him a bad choice. That's Yavapai County, home of NIMBY white people with money in the towns and weird rural people in the rest of it, with a handful of Native people with no political power! Never disappoints.
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Nov 13, 2018 02:53
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TurboFlamingChicken posted:I like how it ended up being a Blue Wave it just took us days after the midterms to realize it I've started to realize there's actually a really good reason we don't start the new season of government until the next year, cause it takes a while for us to sort out what the gently caress we voted for
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Nov 13, 2018 02:54
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the blue version of hurricane Florence landing with moderate winds but just slowly flooding the whole region for many days to come
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Nov 13, 2018 02:58
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Spergin Morlock posted:I just wish I wasn't surprised that Gosar won his election despite his entire family calling him a bad choice. Gosar the Destroyer
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Nov 13, 2018 02:58
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TurboFlamingChicken posted:I like how it ended up being a Blue Wave it just took us days after the midterms to realize it That's exactly the way Florida's going to disappear beneath the blue waves someday.
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Nov 13, 2018 03:02
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Powered Descent posted:That's exactly the way Florida's going to disappear beneath the blue waves someday. inshallah
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Nov 13, 2018 03:05
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062167041845723136 https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152
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Nov 13, 2018 03:20
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Powered Descent posted:That's exactly the way Florida's going to disappear beneath the blue waves someday. make florida atlantis vote for desantis
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Nov 13, 2018 03:24
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Stefan Prodan posted:Remember when triple sulk tried to rub in his rightness despite being spectacularly wrong lol i think i saw it but i was in the middle of having a massive PTSD flashback mental breakdown so in the end it's hard to say who got owned harder
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Nov 13, 2018 03:24
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Thesaurus posted:the blue version of hurricane Florence landing with moderate winds but just slowly flooding the whole region for many days to come Accurate
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Nov 13, 2018 03:24
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president goodbrains hounded that binch flake out of the senate then lost the seat https://twitter.com/JeffFlake/status/1062162823738929152
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Nov 13, 2018 03:27
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Reclines Obesily posted:president goodbrains hounded that binch flake out of the senate then lost the seat 
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Nov 13, 2018 03:28
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Reclines Obesily posted:https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062167041845723136 Kinda wish the golden retriever had won she looks like a good girl
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Nov 13, 2018 03:37
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Reclines Obesily posted:president goodbrains hounded that binch flake out of the senate then lost the seat https://twitter.com/JeffFlake/status/1061102769812226048 i fukkin love decorums!!!!!! lol
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Nov 13, 2018 03:42
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Jeff Flake (D-AZ)
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Nov 13, 2018 03:42
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"Take that, Trump! ...but before I go, are there any last-minute votes I can cast the way you want? I'll totally do it."
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Nov 13, 2018 03:45
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nooneofconsequence posted:It seriously looks like 25,000 people in Broward just straight-up didn't vote for senator because it wasn't prominent on the ballot or something. Yeah, they had the senate race tucked in there under the ballot instructions that no one reads and nobody objected to the ballot design when they had a chance to because 
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Nov 13, 2018 03:51
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Lord of Pie posted:Yeah, they had the senate race tucked in there under the ballot instructions that no one reads and nobody objected to the ballot design when they had a chance to because Because DWS wants the seat and believes she can beat Rick Scott in 6 years rather than win a primary against Nelson. That's my  line on it anyway.Florida has a history of lovely, lovely ballot design and this is just another one they hosed up.
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Nov 13, 2018 03:52
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Lord of Pie posted:Yeah, they had the senate race tucked in there under the ballot instructions that no one reads and nobody objected to the ballot design when they had a chance to because "we can have input on the ballot? nah you must be joking, cause otherwise how could this state have such a good history of terrible ambiguity ?????" and i can empathize with a buncha beat down people who might have to take a day off work to vote in the first place
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Nov 13, 2018 03:58
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FAUXTON posted:Because DWS wants the seat and believes she can beat Rick Scott in 6 years rather than win a primary against Nelson. That's my that’s a super dumb take because beating incumbents is hard and Nelson is so goddamn old he probably wouldn’t run again anyway. also, nobody likes DWS. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 13, 2018 04:15
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Lastgirl posted:Florida is a joke i hope everyone in it dies in a hypercane sorry lg but you shall be remembered forever, your posts shiny and chrome
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Nov 13, 2018 04:19
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Ogmius815 posted:that’s a super dumb take because beating incumbents is hard and Nelson is so goddamn old he probably wouldn’t run again anyway. also, nobody likes DWS. That's the reason for the last sentence - they don't design ballots very well down there.
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Nov 13, 2018 04:20
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KiteAuraan posted:That's Yavapai County, home of NIMBY white people with money in the towns and weird rural people in the rest of it, with a handful of Native people with no political power! Never disappoints. They're basically all living the rednecks dream, filling the natural desert with a ton of grass and giant green ranches at the cost of millions, I'm fully expecting Sheriff Joe to re-emerge there in some capacity. But they'll get theirs once water starts to dry up since their water rights are poo poo. Really pretty though.
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Nov 13, 2018 04:21
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Rick posted:They're basically all living the rednecks dream, filling the natural desert with a ton of grass and giant green ranches at the cost of millions, I'm fully expecting Sheriff Joe to re-emerge there in some capacity. But they'll get theirs once water starts to dry up since their water rights are poo poo. He already lives in Fountain Hills. That town is pretty separated from the rest of the metro area.
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Nov 13, 2018 04:26
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crazy cloud posted:iirc it was this, specifically because as the gop won a handful of sure-thing seats early, that changed the way the model was weighting those elections from "likely gop" to "100% gop" and their fancy billion dollar algorithm had nothing written into it to update the overall model's estimates in a meaningful way as different races with different probabilities of flipping were reporting at different rates in real-time lmao. what a worthless hack nate is This is your daily reminder that Nate has no formal stats education. No PhD, no ms, just an undergrad in econ (llol) and some sabermetrics exp. The man couldn't build a model to save his life, and it is only because everyone else on tv was somehow worse that he rose to prominence.
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Nov 13, 2018 04:41
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my favorite take every election is when nate silver is again the most accurate forecaster, and the response to this is again "nate is wrong and a moron"
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Nov 13, 2018 04:44
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Hilarious poo poo happening out here in CA. A chudly, term-limited Republican state senator is going to get a surprise loss in his the race for a sinecure at the Board of Equalization (our extremely dead elected tax board). Check out his opponent: https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1062162534541807617
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Nov 13, 2018 04:44
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I like him already
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Nov 13, 2018 04:48
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Vox Nihili posted:Hilarious poo poo happening out here in CA. A chudly, term-limited Republican state senator is going to get a surprise loss in his the race for a sinecure at the Board of Equalization (our extremely dead elected tax board). Check out his opponent: Yet in 2012, a restraining order keeping him 100 feet from Garrett was granted. The comic said Schaefer was stalking him, and a justice of the peace agreed. Their conflict began when Schaefer was refused a comp to Garrett’s show at the MGM Grand in June 2012. He took umbrage and began firing off angry notes to the actor, boasting about his importance in Las Vegas. Garrett and others asked whether they could testify by telephone at the hearing because they were afraid to be in the same room as Schaefer, according to documents filed with the state bar. still better than a republican
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Nov 13, 2018 04:48
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 To be clear, the Republican running was extremely bad: https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2018/08/20/joel-anderson-accused-of-threatening-to-assault-female-lobbyist/ So hopefully the crazy old man gets his expected win
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Nov 13, 2018 04:48
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2012 was not that long between stalking brad garrett over some comp tickets and getting elected to public office in 2018
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Nov 13, 2018 04:49
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(meeting A Beatle and Rolling Stones)
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Nov 13, 2018 04:49
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Grimoire posted:This is your daily reminder that Nate has no formal stats education. No PhD, no ms, just an undergrad in econ (llol) and some sabermetrics exp. He called every race correctly in I think 2006, which is when he broke out. Their model this year was accurate and stable, though. So long as you weren't paying attention to the real time updates that gave me an anxiety attack.
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Nov 13, 2018 04:51
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Lutha Mahtin posted:my favorite take every election is when nate silver is again the most accurate forecaster, and the response to this is again "nate is wrong and a moron" Yeah I think they got 95% of races called correctly lol what a bunch of morons
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Nov 13, 2018 04:52
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Why are these walking disasters up for election at the Board of Equalization, anyway? Well, the Board was stripped of most of its duties by the legislature after it was found that a tax board with elected officials tends to be "extremely corrupt." So another body now handles 90% of that work, writing the regulations, etc. But the BoE is a required part of the state per our insane Constitution, so you can still get elected to presumably grandstand about prop 13 or whatever they do now.
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Nov 13, 2018 04:53
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Grimoire posted:This is your daily reminder that Nate has no formal stats education. No PhD, no ms, just an undergrad in econ (llol) and some sabermetrics exp. Their models seem to work pretty well, and every election some Ph.D. gets into fights with him about it, and he always ends up being right in the end.
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Nov 13, 2018 04:58
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