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Israel and Hamas announce cease-fire, for now. Let's hope it takes. Or not, it really depends on where you land on the accelerationism spectrum, up to you guys, I think that fighting is bad, myself.
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Nov 13, 2018 19:26
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emanresu tnuocca posted:Israel and Hamas announce cease-fire, for now. Let's hope it takes. I will set the over under at 7 days before Israel breaks it by firing guns into a child.
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Nov 13, 2018 19:31
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actually im seeing no news that israel has accepted the ceasefire at all yet. There was no official confirmation of a ceasefire from the Israeli government, which said in a brief statement that the Israeli military would “continue its operations as necessary”.
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Nov 13, 2018 19:33
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It seems this is a "brass vs. politicians" scenario, the Israel is reporting that the IDF leadership has agreed to the ceasefire but the language coming from the government is a lot less certain. This is understandable as it would seem that the current escalation was a bit of an 'oopsie' from the IDF but for the Israeli Government this came at a very inopportune moment, Bibi has been under constant criticism for his 'leniency' towards Hamas since protective edge and in many ways he can't afford to back off quite so readily here even though he is very clearly not interested in this escalation and has been negotiating with Hamas under the radar for years now. Things are probably back to the status quo, if the IAF could refrain from making massive airstrikes in the next couple of days, that is.
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Nov 13, 2018 19:45
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 Gazans: "Yay, Ceasefire!" Israelis: "Boo, Ceasefire!" Great hasbara.
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Nov 13, 2018 19:56
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The Electronic Intafada put out the US focussed investigation that Al Jazeera did on Israel's influencing of US politics.
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Nov 14, 2018 06:28
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I think I've seen a decent graph / article posted here about how Israel initiates each new cycle of violence at its own convenience. Like a proper breakdown of "Hamas doesn't do poo poo, then Israel decides its time to mow the lawn". Any idea what I'm talking about?
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Nov 14, 2018 08:43
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Welp, looks like Liberman, the Minister of Defence and leader of a nationalist party in the coalition is going to resign over the ceasefire. Strap in everyone, this looks to be quite a ride.
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Nov 14, 2018 12:05
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Is it possible that Liberman ordered the attack while Netanyahu was preoccupied with the visit to Paris, to stoke the fire?
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Nov 14, 2018 14:08
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I highly doubt that. The chain of command doesn't work that way.
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Nov 14, 2018 14:14
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:Welp, looks like Liberman, the Minister of Defence and leader of a nationalist party in the coalition is going to resign over the ceasefire. Strap in everyone, this looks to be quite a ride.
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Nov 14, 2018 15:35
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I wouldn't be so quick to celebrate. If the government actually does collapse, his party is probably going to siphon off quite a number of votes from Bibi thanks to this stunt. The dissatisfaction about the ceasefire is absolutely a thing, from what I can tell.
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Nov 14, 2018 15:40
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Xander77 posted:I think I've seen a decent graph / article posted here about how Israel initiates each new cycle of violence at its own convenience. Like a proper breakdown of "Hamas doesn't do poo poo, then Israel decides its time to mow the lawn". Any idea what I'm talking about? I don't know about anything more comprehensive, but the 2008 ceasefire is a pretty good example. Rocket activity dropped off to virtually nil during the ceasefire...and then the IDF raided into Gaza and shot a few Hamas members in a firefight. Two months later, just after the official expiration of the ceasefire, the 2008 Gaza war was on.
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Nov 14, 2018 23:21
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Main Paineframe posted:I don't know about anything more comprehensive, but the 2008 ceasefire is a pretty good example. Rocket activity dropped off to virtually nil during the ceasefire...and then the IDF raided into Gaza and shot a few Hamas members in a firefight. Two months later, just after the official expiration of the ceasefire, the 2008 Gaza war was on. There's no better vote winner than proclaiming that there's a great threat to your country that you gotta stop and only you can do it. The fact that they occasionally throws rocks at your wall, so you have some plausible press coverage to confirm that they're out to get you, while simultaneously keeping said enemy locked up in a giant state run concentration camp with no food or water while occasionally burning down every school or hospital you can spot via airstrike is apparantly not also mentioned.
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Nov 14, 2018 23:42
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Main Paineframe posted:I don't know about anything more comprehensive, but the 2008 ceasefire is a pretty good example. Rocket activity dropped off to virtually nil during the ceasefire...and then the IDF raided into Gaza and shot a few Hamas members in a firefight. Two months later, just after the official expiration of the ceasefire, the 2008 Gaza war was on. How is building a tunnel for abducting soldiers not a provocation? And keep in mind they did not respond to the tunnel by turning the dial to 10. Hamas was privy to the tit for tat escalation that followed. That doesn't justify what happened to civilians afterwards, but there was more than enough cause to retaliate against Hamas.
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Nov 15, 2018 02:32
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They shouldn't have hung those "FOR ABDUCTIONS ONLY" signs on the tunnel entrances, even if they were fairly witty
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Nov 15, 2018 03:38
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aw beans I hate when my kidnapping tunnel gets found because I put a big neon 'this is where we grab IDF people for some reason' sign over all the holes. You win this round, Israel!
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Nov 15, 2018 05:25
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I'm lost, I thought this was a flair up because of a flopped raid. Where do tunnels fit into it?
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Nov 15, 2018 05:37
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Kim Jong Il posted:How is building a tunnel for abducting soldiers not a provocation? And keep in mind they did not respond to the tunnel by turning the dial to 10. Hamas was privy to the tit for tat escalation that followed. That doesn't justify what happened to civilians afterwards, but there was more than enough cause to retaliate against Hamas. did you ever figure out how the children the IDF shot in the back while running away were "privy to tit for tat escalation" btw
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Nov 15, 2018 07:39
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RandomPauI posted:I'm lost, I thought this was a flair up because of a flopped raid. Where do tunnels fit into it? everywhere, the narrative is incredibly malleable like that.
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Nov 15, 2018 07:57
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Wasn't the 2014 conflict also started by the IDF sending armed troops to "investigate" a kidnapping in Gaza, in spite of Israel having enough intel to conclude that the hitchikers were gunned down inside Israel's borders by someone who had never been to Gaza? I forget how that whole timeline shook out, but I feel like it also had something to do with terror tunnels. It's almost like there's a pattern of every ceasefire breaking down thanks to a pre-emptive strike against Hamas and their dastardly schemes to kidnap people.
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Nov 15, 2018 09:30
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Zulily Zoetrope posted:Wasn't the 2014 conflict also started by the IDF sending armed troops to "investigate" a kidnapping in Gaza, in spite of Israel having enough intel to conclude that the hitchikers were gunned down inside Israel's borders by someone who had never been to Gaza? I forget how that whole timeline shook out, but I feel like it also had something to do with terror tunnels. It's a little different than you remember. After the kidnappings in the West Bank, Israel began illegally detaining hundreds of people, many of whom had just been released from prison. They also seized thousands of dollars in valuables from people and were generally just roughing up the West Bank. In response to this action, rockets started flying from Gaza again, which prompted massive airstrikes followed by a limited ground invasion.
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Nov 15, 2018 14:11
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There's always Wikipedia for reading about the background of the various "wars" or "battles" or "bombardments" or whatever. It's not like you have to ask obnoxious rhetorical questions in this thread. Gaza War 2008-2009 (operation "Cast Lead") March 2012 Gaza-Israel clashes (operation "Returning Echo") November 2012 (operation "Pillar of Defense") 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict (operation "Protective Edge") Their talk pages even regurgitate a lot of the arguments here. Yes, there seems to be a clear pattern. No, nothing changes other than a lot of death and destruction, predominantly of Palestinian lives and infrastructure, respectively.
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Nov 15, 2018 14:13
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nothing hamas or the palestinians do can ever be "escalation" because israel is the one that caused the problem.
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Nov 15, 2018 14:37
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That's not what the word "escalation" means. If I punch you, and you shoot me in retaliation, that would be an escalation even though I started the problem. Don't get me wrong, Israel is the side that escalates more often than not, but it isn't because nothing the other side could possibly do could be considered an escalation.
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Nov 15, 2018 14:40
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no it's the thing i said. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 15, 2018 14:42
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Okay, random guy. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 15, 2018 14:43
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Kim Jong Il posted:How is building a tunnel for abducting soldiers not a provocation? And keep in mind they did not respond to the tunnel by turning the dial to 10. Hamas was privy to the tit for tat escalation that followed. That doesn't justify what happened to civilians afterwards, but there was more than enough cause to retaliate against Hamas. If there was in fact a soldier-abducting tunnel going into Israeli territory, and Israel did in fact know about it, then they had plenty of options for dealing with it that didn't involve breaking a ceasefire. Dealing with people tunneling at you without having to send troops overland into enemy lines to seize the tunnel entrance was something militaries could manage centuries ago, usually with far less of a technological and materiel advantage than Israel currently possesses. If Israel didn't want Hamas building fortifications and making other war preparations during the ceasefire, then they should have specifically banned that as part of the ceasefire deal. Otherwise, building things and digging holes in one's own territory is legal during a ceasefire. And we know it was in their own territory, because if they'd crossed the border line then Israel would have no need to do a raid like that. Like it or not, Israel clearly violated the ceasefire. And the fact that things escalated so quickly to war afterwards suggests that it had been their plan from the beginning.
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Nov 15, 2018 16:38
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I'm curious about the announcement the border protests will happen tomorrow during the ceasefire. It sounds like the exact thing Israel could use to claim the ceasefire was broken by the Gazans and resume operations.
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Nov 16, 2018 00:30
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I'm not sure if it's possible to find in English, but now that Netanyahu and his supporters are trying to defend the ceasefire and the deal with Hamas, a lot of people point out how they bring up arguments that Israeli leftists do, and a bunch of leftists made fun of them for it, particularly from Meretz. Israeli Journalist Tal Schneider screen-capped a few of them: https://twitter.com/talschneider/status/1062950002434150401 In order, more or less: Zehava Galon: "Sorry, I tweeted from the wrong user.", quote tweeting Likud MK David Amsalem: "I don't know a single leader who regretted a war he did not start, I know a lot of leaders who regretted a war they did start." Gideon Levi, Haaretz Op Ed: "Netanyahu prevented another war. Nobody else is likely to speak well of him, so I will." Meretz twitter: "This is an excellent time to note that Meretz is opening enrollment for the primaries. Hurry and sign up! 2019.meretz.org.il", quote tweeting MK Amsalem above.
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Nov 16, 2018 02:50
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Xander77 posted:I think I've seen a decent graph / article posted here about how Israel initiates each new cycle of violence at its own convenience. Like a proper breakdown of "Hamas doesn't do poo poo, then Israel decides its time to mow the lawn". Any idea what I'm talking about? This is from 2009, but I'd be shocked if anything substantial has changed. quote:We decided to tally the data to find out. We analyzed the entire timeline of killings of Palestinians by Israelis, and killings of Israelis by Palestinians, in the Second Intifada, based on the data from the widely-respected Israeli Human Rights group B’Tselem (including all the data from September 2000 to October 2008).
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Nov 16, 2018 09:31
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Everything points to new elections soon, despite Bibi's best wishes. Right wing coalition is likely to win again, but it's still really satisfying watching Bibi rapidly losing his iron-grip on power and having to resort to considering Bennet's request for being made Defense Minister. I am sure he'll recover soon, though.
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Nov 16, 2018 17:04
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https://twitter.com/talschneider/status/1064025139447242753
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Nov 18, 2018 06:38
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Doesn't appear to have been an assassination.quote:“The Zionist enemy tried to achieve a major security breakthrough. It apparently tried to install equipment and build something that would make it easy for it to kill, hack and abduct,” Deputy Hamas chief in Gaza Khalil al-Hayya told the Hamas-affiliated Al-Aqsa TV on Saturday. You heard Paine, if it's not banned by the ceasefire, it's not a provocation.
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Nov 18, 2018 14:57
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Ah yes, those dastardly Hamas, provoking Israel to remain at war with them. Provoking you not to engage in peace negotiations with the people you've been at war with for the past... Half a century? Truly, if Hamas would simply stop provoking Israel, the blockade would disappear overnight, and those concrete walls would just go poof. Likud would change all their policies of ethnic cleansing right this instant, if Hamas would do... This one thing that has for decades been provoking Israel into waging war on the Palestinian people. Dunno what that would be, but I'm sure it's been something consistent and often demanded. Something that's real and material, and totally not a red herring.
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Nov 18, 2018 15:23
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Truly, what greater provocation could there be than existing?
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Nov 18, 2018 15:24
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Kim Jong Il posted:Doesn't appear to have been an assassination. Sending armed troops into the other party's territory without their permission is generally banned by ceasefires. There's this little thing called sovreignity.
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Nov 18, 2018 18:25
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Kurnugia posted:Ah yes, those dastardly Hamas, provoking Israel to remain at war with them. Provoking you not to engage in peace negotiations with the people you've been at war with for the past... Half a century? Truly, if Hamas would simply stop provoking Israel, the blockade would disappear overnight, and those concrete walls would just go poof. Likud would change all their policies of ethnic cleansing right this instant, if Hamas would do... This one thing that has for decades been provoking Israel into waging war on the Palestinian people. Dunno what that would be, but I'm sure it's been something consistent and often demanded. Something that's real and material, and totally not a red herring. This is just arguing with a gigantic strawman. Israel should stop blockading innocent Gazans. That has nothing to do with their right to defend themselves against Hamas, nor does it have anything to do with refugees or the West Bank. Going after civilians is wrong, going after military targets can be justified if you do a cost benefit analysis on the civilian casualties, and think about the long term escalatory effects of retaliation. That's why there have been three major flareups and not eleventy billion. Main Paineframe posted:Sending armed troops into the other party's territory without their permission is generally banned by ceasefires. There's this little thing called sovreignity. What do you call Hamas digging tunnels in Israeli territory then?
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Nov 18, 2018 18:44
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Kim Jong Il posted:You heard Paine, if it's not banned by the ceasefire, it's not a provocation.
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Nov 18, 2018 18:46
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Kim Jong Il posted:This is just arguing with a gigantic strawman. Well I am talking to you...
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Nov 18, 2018 18:55
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