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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:How does the argument that Nelson didn't do enough to foster the careers of politicians in Florida follow to the conclusion that this led people to support Rick Scott? Especially when Nelson was the top-performing statewide Democrat in Florida in 2018. Because campaigning and building any infrastructure, at all, would have put him over the top in addition to helping fill the pipeline, and politician A raising less money than politician B doesn't mean he's not on the gravy train it just means he raised less money than someone else. Put in some effort dude, this is weaker than usual.
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Nov 19, 2018 17:05
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Are those figures about how much Scott "raised" including his self-funding?
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Nov 19, 2018 17:06
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evilweasel posted:Are those figures about how much Scott "raised" including his self-funding? Probably.
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Nov 19, 2018 17:06
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VitalSigns posted:Because campaigning and building any infrastructure, at all, would have put him over the top in addition to helping fill the pipeline, and politician A raising less money than politician B doesn't mean he's not on the gravy train it just means he raised less money than someone else. We already agreed that campaigning would have helped. But, I don't see any way that Nelson helping to pick political candidates for first-time office runs leads to people switching from Rick Scott to Nelson. The fact that the downticket vote %s were almost exactly the same, there was virtually no ticket-splitting, and voter turnout was at an all-time high seems to indicate that it is partisanship and the voter composition of Florida that produced those election results and not that Nelson had insufficiently recruited candidates for the statehouse in Tallahassee.
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Nov 19, 2018 17:11
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:We already agreed that campaigning would have helped. That was never the argument, the argument was about using all the time Nelson had as the guaranteed nominee to open campaign offices and build infrastructure to help other candidates (and himself). The fact that he didn't do that probably doesn't mean he lost voters to Scott, it probably means that potential Nelson voters didn't come out at all. Nelson should have outrun Gillum by much more than he did on incumbency and whiteness alone, the fact that Gillum came within half a percent of an old white guy incumbent as a black newcomer to state-level politics (and did better than any Democrat gubernatorial candidate has in decades) is not an indictment of Gillum's campaign.
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Nov 19, 2018 17:17
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VitalSigns posted:That was never the argument, the argument was about using all the time Nelson had as the guaranteed nominee to open campaign offices and build infrastructure to help other candidates (and himself). The fact that he didn't do that probably doesn't mean he lost voters to Scott, it probably means that potential Nelson voters didn't come out at all. 538 had an analysis that said incumbency is slowly losing value and only has real meaning in House races. The fact that you see Senate races in PA, FL, WI, VA, CO, and others that used to regularly split tickets almost exactly match their votes for President and Governor seems to indicate that turnout and partisanship matter much more than incumbency, race, or a particular office. The "new normal" is that statewide elections are beginning to have smaller and smaller differences between offices and are lining up more and more with partisan voting patterns.
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Nov 19, 2018 17:30
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That doesn't mean the incumbency advantage is zero, only less than it used to be. Do I really have to look up how much Tammy Baldwin outran Evers in Wisconsin just now to prove you wrong quantitatively instead of just qualitatively because if you're not going to put in the effort to lie convincingly I'm not really into it. E: Eh gently caress it, the incumbent senator outran the gubernatorial challenger by 10 points in WI VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Nov 19, 2018 |
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Nov 19, 2018 17:35
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Or brown in Ohio winning while every other Dem lost
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Nov 19, 2018 17:45
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VitalSigns posted:That doesn't mean the incumbency advantage is zero, only less than it used to be. Yes, I agree. But you said it should have been "much more" than it was. By the same point, one outlier doesn't mean the effect is 0. In 2016, incredibly unpopular Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson won with Trump. Statewide races have been getting closer and closer since 2004. Incumbency and other factors have been getting smaller and smaller. In the 2018 election in Florida, I think Gillum did about as well as he could. The fact that the vote %s statewide were nearly identical and that voter participation was at a record high, seems to indicate that there wasn't a substantial group of people who really wanted to vote for Gillum, but stayed home because Nelson ran a bad campaign. People really want to focus on the gaffes, campaign ads, and personalities of candidates, but outside of extreme scenarios (like being a child molester) those don't really have much of an impact. Especially in high-turnout situations.
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Nov 19, 2018 17:48
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Or brown in Ohio winning while every other Dem lost Brown this year was kind of a special circumstance. His opponent, who was the sitting Treasurer and had won statewide multiple times, dropped out of the race about 6 months before the election because his wife had cancer. Before he dropped out, the polls were giving Mandel a small lead. Then, Brown shot up over the replacement candidate and more or less stayed there.
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Nov 19, 2018 17:53
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Yes, I agree. But you said it should have been "much more" than it was. OK so you agree you're just fishmeching about how much more is "much more", okay. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The fact that the vote %s statewide were nearly identical and that voter participation was at a record high, seems to indicate that there wasn't a substantial group of people who really wanted to vote for Gillum, but stayed home because Nelson ran a bad campaign. That was never the claim. The claim was that Nelson should have beaten Gillum's total by more than half a percent, because incumbency advantage while diminished still exists so the indication is that Gillum's platform is more popular or Nelson is just a really poo poo campaigner or both. No one is saying people secretly wanted to vote for Gillum more than anything but stayed home because Nelson ran a bad campaign, they are saying a good campaign would have brought out people who stayed home, and those people would be more likely to vote Gillum than they would to split their tickets or leave the gubernatorial section blank, so a better effort by Nelson would have had coattails. I know you know this and you're strawmanning for shits and giggles because you haven't been banned from this thread too, but in case anyone else is confused this is the actual argument.
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Nov 19, 2018 18:03
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VitalSigns posted:OK so you agree you're just fishmeching about how much more is "much more", okay. It's not "fishmeching" since it is actually contrary to your argument. I said that incumbency has a very small impact and that turnout was not likely depressed because Nelson and Gillum had almost identical vote totals and voter participation was at an all-time high. You said that incumbency is much more important, turnout was depressed, and therefore he should have won by much more. But, if your theory is that incumbency is much more valuable, then the fact that their vote totals matched and participation was at a record high seems to point towards incumbency having little impact. It would be a weird coincidence for Nelson's campaign to subtract exactly as much share of the vote that his incumbency provides to result in his vote share matching Gillum's totals. Either incumbency had little impact or incumbency had a bigger impact, but Nelson's foibles subtracted the exact amount of votes that incumbency provides. I just don't see any evidence of your claims other than "it did." Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Nov 19, 2018 |
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Nov 19, 2018 18:07
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Right okay he should have won by more than he did so your original argument was wrong thank you for admitting it, and you're now complaining about how much "much" is, cool cool.
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Nov 19, 2018 18:09
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turnip kid posted:What can Nikki Fried realistically accomplish? She's got a great platform especially as it pertains to gun control, but will the state allow her to implement any of it? I don't know how the state works! I find this most interesting because she will be in charge of issuing concealed gun permits.
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Nov 19, 2018 18:23
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yronic heroism posted:Incumbency advantage is still a thing, as is racism. If anything, all else being equal we’d expect Nelson to overperform by at least a couple more points. Incumbency is mostly campaign funding and name recognition. Rick Scott had a lot more of those than Nelson did, and he benefited from the hurricanes.
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Nov 19, 2018 20:22
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Ague Proof posted:Incumbency is mostly campaign funding and name recognition. Rick Scott had a lot more of those than Nelson did, and he benefited from the hurricanes. With a 10k margin of victory, we're back in "what caused hillary to lose" territory, where literally anything can be the deciding factor. -Broward ballot design? Yep! -Nelson having next to zero spanish language outreach? Oh yeah! -Hurricanes letting Scott look like 'concerned guy'? Sure!
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Nov 19, 2018 20:56
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OAquinas posted:With a 10k margin of victory, we're back in "what caused hillary to lose" territory, where literally anything can be the deciding factor. I still get back to how Rick "Mr 5th Amendment" Scott ever got elected to anything, ever....
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Nov 19, 2018 20:58
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mcmagic posted:I still get back to how Rick "Mr 5th Amendment" Scott ever got elected to anything, ever.... Alabama almost elected a child molester to the senate. Personal history doesn't matter, just team affiliation. ...plus it helps that the florida democratic party is only slightly more lively than a fish that's been on the dock for 20 minutes.
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Nov 19, 2018 21:02
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OAquinas posted:Alabama almost elected a child molester to the senate. When the scandal broke Moore dropped about ten points, candidate quality absolutely does matter, at least when it's at the extremes
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Nov 19, 2018 21:04
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Ohio is a midwest red hell even though democrats are casting a majority of the votes. Gerrymandering must die.
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Nov 19, 2018 21:42
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Man, the more I’m reading about Sherrod Brown the more I like him. Why does this guy not have a higher national profile? He kicks rear end, well as much as it’s possible for a non-Bernie senator to kick at least.
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Nov 19, 2018 21:46
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cheetah7071 posted:When the scandal broke Moore dropped about ten points, candidate quality absolutely does matter, at least when it's at the extremes Did he I thought Moore had low overall support all along for being a crazy idiot and the scandal didn't change it, if it did anything it swung undecided voters toward Jones. Ah yeah there it is 
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Nov 19, 2018 21:47
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I remember 538 doing a thing saying that Alabama is 30 points more republican than the nation. The 30 point swing could roughly be divided into 10 points from the generic congressional ballot, 10 points from candidate quality pre-scandal (because Moore was polling 20 points below what you'd expect, not just 10), and 10 from him being a pedophile. It makes sense that the swing came from undecideds rather than republicans but a swing is a swing.
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Nov 19, 2018 21:49
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cheetah7071 posted:I remember 538 doing a thing saying that Alabama is 30 points more republican than the nation. The 30 point swing could roughly be divided into 10 points from the generic congressional ballot, 10 points from candidate quality pre-scandal (because Moore was polling 20 points below what you'd expect, not just 10), and 10 from him being a pedophile. It makes sense that the swing came from undecideds rather than republicans but a swing is a swing. Sure, but it's also important that it didn't actually cause any supporters to abandon him, tribal identity trumped all, it just encouraged people who already didn't like him to throw their support to the Democrat.
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Nov 19, 2018 21:58
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Chilichimp posted:Ohio is a midwest red hell even though democrats are casting a majority of the votes. Gerrymandering must die. Yeah, after PA got fixed up there's not TOO many states with especially grotesque congressional district lines. But goddamn Ohio sure is one of them. The northeast corner is particularly horrifying.
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Nov 20, 2018 00:03
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All of northern ohio and franklin county is horrid. Do images not work when uploaded now? 
UCS Hellmaker fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Nov 20, 2018 |
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Nov 20, 2018 00:55
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UCS Hellmaker posted:All of northern ohio and franklin county is horrid. What have you fools done to the Western Reserve??? 
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Nov 20, 2018 01:37
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UCS Hellmaker posted:All of northern ohio and franklin county is horrid. You need to link to the image, not the imgur album
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Nov 20, 2018 01:39
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I still sometimes grab the album link first. Imgur's not terribly intuitive, I think.
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Nov 20, 2018 01:53
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Lycus posted:I still sometimes grab the album link first. Imgur's not terribly intuitive, I think. Imgur-uploader is a great FF extension. I assume there's versions for other browsers. Right-click to upload an image to Imgur, link is automatically copied to the clipboard.
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Nov 20, 2018 01:57
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themrguy posted:Man, the more I’m reading about Sherrod Brown the more I like him. Why does this guy not have a higher national profile? He kicks rear end, well as much as it’s possible for a non-Bernie senator to kick at least. He hasn't been running for president for the entire time he's been in the senate unlike Cory Booker or Harris.
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Nov 20, 2018 02:11
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themrguy posted:Man, the more I’m reading about Sherrod Brown the more I like him. Why does this guy not have a higher national profile? He kicks rear end, well as much as it’s possible for a non-Bernie senator to kick at least. He has a weird gravelly voice. He has also been focusing on getting reelecting before looking onto 2020
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Nov 20, 2018 02:12
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Lol the mainland 9th district, only contiguous if you're a swimmer
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Nov 20, 2018 02:42
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Wow. https://twitter.com/PerryNBCBoston/status/1064666440526192640
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Nov 20, 2018 02:55
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Why wow? What's Moulton's background?
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Nov 20, 2018 03:18
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Brony Car posted:Why wow? It's more the phrasing.
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Nov 20, 2018 03:19
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https://twitter.com/PerryNBCBoston/status/1064668023481671680 Lol this is the most transparent BS I've ever heard
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Nov 20, 2018 05:22
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With all the votes counted for the 2018 midterm election, Republicans have hit their lowest levels of congressional representation in California and New Jersey in modern history. The California Congressional Delegation is 47D - 8R. The New Jersey Congressional Delegation is 13D - 1R.
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Nov 20, 2018 15:08
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Badger of Basra posted:https://twitter.com/PerryNBCBoston/status/1064668023481671680 Seth Moulton is trash and the people who elected him are the most Panera Bread human garbage on Earth. loving North Shore. Good to hear that he's getting his rear end kicked though.
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Nov 20, 2018 16:03
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:With all the votes counted for the 2018 midterm election, Republicans have hit their lowest levels of congressional representation in California and New Jersey in modern history. One to go..
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Nov 20, 2018 19:25
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