Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

Mokotow: Apr 16, 2012

GreyjoyBastard posted:

I am officially no good at reading Polish anymore.

Today�s actions, including the sailors� wounding and damage to Ukrainian vessels has its sources in Russia�s continous breaking of international law, Ukraine�s sovereignty and independence.

After the illegal Crimea occupation, fanning the flames in Donbas, building the bridge without agreement from Kiev, Russia now breaks the law of free sea movement. With all force, we condemn Russia�s aggressive actions, call on it to respect intl law and call on both sides to reffrain from escalation, which could threaten european stability.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 00:33

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# ? May 10, 2024 07:26

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Charliegrs posted:

So just out of curiosity, what does the Ukraine government imposing martial law accomplish? Are they expecting more Russian aggression?

Yes. It's likely to put the whole nation on guard for the surprise appearance of "little green men". Last time, the country was to distract with the Kyiv-centered revolution and Yankovych fleeing the country that the Russians appearing and taking Crimea and the Donbass was a surprise and no one knew what to do about it.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 00:41

HorrificExistence: Jun 25, 2017; by Athanatos

it's so they can put off elections

# ? Nov 26, 2018 00:45

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

Isn't the "little green men" thing a one trick pony? I mean everyone knew they were the Russians before Putin admitted it but if they ever turn up anywhere again it's not like there will be any debate as to who they are. So how would that be any different from a legitimate Russian invasion in the future?

# ? Nov 26, 2018 00:57

pro starcraft loser: Jan 23, 2006; Stand back, this could get messy.

HorrificExistence posted:

it's so they can put off elections

Are you saying the Ukrainians are making this up?

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:08

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Charliegrs posted:

Isn't the "little green men" thing a one trick pony? I mean everyone knew they were the Russians before Putin admitted it but if they ever turn up anywhere again it's not like there will be any debate as to who they are. So how would that be any different from a legitimate Russian invasion in the future?

no one wants to call their bluff, the transparent fiction is preferable to reality

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:17

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

no one wants to call their bluff, the transparent fiction is preferable to reality

Also, considering that most people are positing that this is Poroshenko canceling the elections and not Russians potentially launching an invasion, the "little green men" could show up claiming to be an anti-Poroshenko militant faction that has been astroturfed into existence by Russian social media manipulation.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:20

HorrificExistence: Jun 25, 2017; by Athanatos

pro starcraft loser posted:

Are you saying the Ukrainians are making this up?

I'm saying declaring martial law is a nonsensical response to this provocation.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:24

pro starcraft loser: Jan 23, 2006; Stand back, this could get messy.

HorrificExistence posted:

I'm saying declaring martial law is a nonsensical response to this provocation.

Phew, good thing the Russians are this aggressive around election time.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:26

HorrificExistence: Jun 25, 2017; by Athanatos

pro starcraft loser posted:

Phew, good thing the Russians are this aggressive around election time.

wow are you one of the 9% who supports Poroshenko ?

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:27

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

under the thumb of big chocolate

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:29

pro starcraft loser: Jan 23, 2006; Stand back, this could get messy.

HorrificExistence posted:

wow are you one of the 9% who supports Poroshenko ?

Im not Ukrainian. Just using past experience and logic (CRIMEA) to think that the Russians are the aggressors here.

Or are the Little Green Men just rebels?

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:30

HorrificExistence: Jun 25, 2017; by Athanatos

pro starcraft loser posted:

the Russians are the aggressors here.

this does not preclude Poroshenko being a corrupt moron

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:34

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

is there a theoretical leader that would be able to play a winning hand as leader of ukraine? not a defense of proshenko, but it does seem like a no win situation

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:39

pro starcraft loser: Jan 23, 2006; Stand back, this could get messy.

HorrificExistence posted:

this does not preclude Poroshenko being a corrupt moron

I know nothing about him, so correct. I was referring to the overt actions of Russia against Ukraine. Again.

I mean, just declare war if you want it so much.

I do think its a little weird to declare marshal law for a naval skirmish miles away.

pro starcraft loser fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Nov 26, 2018

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:42

HorrificExistence: Jun 25, 2017; by Athanatos

It's definitely a tough situation. Russia is not sure it can win a land war in Ukraine. In fact, I'd argue that unless the Ukrainian government collapses overnight, such a war would be terminal for Putin. Europe would ease off Russian gas, and it would be almost impossible to re-implement a frozen conflict outside of Donbas. Putin is counting on the blockade provoking escalation. But by literally talking of declaring martial law and not to mention declaring war, all Poroshenko is doing is setting another 2008. He can't allow himself to play the Russians game, but I think he is.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 01:47

sum: Nov 15, 2010

HorrificExistence posted:

It's definitely a tough situation. Russia is not sure it can win a land war in Ukraine. In fact, I'd argue that unless the Ukrainian government collapses overnight, such a war would be terminal for Putin. Europe would ease off Russian gas, and it would be almost impossible to re-implement a frozen conflict outside of Donbas. Putin is counting on the blockade provoking escalation. But by literally talking of declaring martial law and not to mention declaring war, all Poroshenko is doing is setting another 2008. He can't allow himself to play the Russians game, but I think he is.

I mean, Ukraine is literally the best-case scenario for a fast ground war. Totally flat with endless potential avenues for advance, if the Russian army isn't utterly dysfunctional they could probably capture or surround everything east of the Dneiper in a week. Of course doing Operation Saturn II might be politically unacceptable in 2018 and every war starts with promises that it'll be over in a month, but on paper it should be an easy military victory for the Russians.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 02:01

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

There might be some pre-emptive action into the Donbass or at least the possibility of such.
https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1066825355732762625

# ? Nov 26, 2018 02:16

HorrificExistence: Jun 25, 2017; by Athanatos

Young Freud posted:

There might be some pre-emptive action into the Donbass or at least the possibility of such.
https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1066825355732762625

but isn't this saying they will adhere to the minsk agreement?

# ? Nov 26, 2018 02:19

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

HorrificExistence posted:

but isn't this saying they will adhere to the minsk agreement?

They have never adhered to the Minsk agreement

http://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2018/11/24/rozsadki-pid-ukrainskim-kontrolem-(video)/

quote:

In pursuance of the decision of the Commander-in-Chief of the Allied Force, Lieutenant-General Sergei Naev, Special Operations Forces, under the cover of units of the 72nd Brigade and in conjunction with the sapers, they inspected and cleaned the Seatings settlement located at the Svitlodarsky arc.

Despite the hostile fire and deadly danger, the SSR fighters raised the Ukrainian flag under the very nose of the invaders.

Special-purpose workers were preparing for surgery for more than a month. Just a month ago, our intelligence revealed the occupants in the village.

During the bloody battles for Debaltsevo, along with the Seedlings, one of the routes under which the defenders of Ukraine were supplied with supplies, medicines and ammunition was held.

The people's place was already cleansed by officers of the Armed Forces, however, because of the complexity of security and the proximity of the enemy's position to equip a full position there is still impossible. Seatings were under our fire control, although they were in the gray zone.

Lately, arrogant militants have been working in the village of "a way of life" and have fired from the village, and the day before the stripping, antitank guided missiles (PTCR) were used in the area of the Segments. In order to prevent the actions of the invaders and to exclude the presence of militants there, the village was cleared by the SSR fighters. They, trained and experienced, once again proved that the elite of the Ukrainian army would, in all circumstances, resist both Russian occupiers and their mercenaries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxMxJRN4ktw

HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Nov 26, 2018

# ? Nov 26, 2018 03:28

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Good background here on the current situation:
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1066837970316087301

# ? Nov 26, 2018 10:19

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

After five years of gruelling hybrid war with so many people dead, I have to say, declaring martial law now, right before elections, looks very suspicious. But on the other hand, that would be a really dumb plan, considering Ukrainians can go full Maidan 3.0 on Poroshenko when they inevitably see through it. Unless he somehow regains control of Crimea, but that's highly unlikely.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 10:37

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Of course martial law won't do anything for a naval skirmish/blockade but it might be (mildly) effective against any ground shenanigans the Russians might try to pull off using the incident as an excuse and/or distraction.

It could be an election thing but I kind of doubt. If is we'll just kick them out again :black101:

# ? Nov 26, 2018 10:57

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1067056500848246785

# ? Nov 26, 2018 15:05

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

# ? Nov 26, 2018 15:13

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

That's quite an audio clip. :staredog:

# ? Nov 26, 2018 15:51

Plastic_Gargoyle: Aug 3, 2007

They thought they needed special forces for this?

# ? Nov 26, 2018 15:55

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1067072379090862080

# ? Nov 26, 2018 16:12

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Ok are we sure now this wasn't just an accidental collision between Russian ships and they didn't just drag a Ukrainian tugboat into it to avoid looking bad?

# ? Nov 26, 2018 16:14

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

They thought they needed special forces for this?

What do you propose, random semi-civilian border guard sailors board boats full of armed military sailors?

mobby_6kl posted:

Ok are we sure now this wasn't just an accidental collision between Russian ships and they didn't just drag a Ukrainian tugboat into it to avoid looking bad?

No.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 16:16

Randler: Jan 3, 2013; ACER ET VEHEMENS BONAVIS

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

They thought they needed special forces for this?

Pretty sure designated boarding team units are considered special forces in most militaries, because it's not really in scope of conventional warfare.

# ? Nov 26, 2018 16:41

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Randler posted:

Pretty sure designated boarding team units are considered special forces in most militaries, because it's not really in scope of conventional warfare.

Yeah, it's a lot of potential for close combat and, for the longest time, super dangerous because the boarders have little protection due to body armor encumbering so much that if you fell off a ship or a rig in armor, you'd sink. You also can't use heavy ordnance because your team is on a relatively fragile terrain compared to buildings and land.

U.S. Coast Guard interdiction teams are supposedly the one of best in the world despite Coast Guard having the reputation of being the lowest tier of the U.S. armed forces, being equal to SEALs and British SBS, because they do nothing but boarding actions against drug smugglers.

Young Freud fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Nov 26, 2018

# ? Nov 26, 2018 16:58