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Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
what're people thinking for WR targets on waivers this week?

Josh Doctson got 10 targets from Colt McCoy and may be a higher value target with the new QB there.
David Moore for Seattle looks promising.
Jermaine Kearse got 12 targets and finally did SOMETHING.
Dante Pettis got 7 targets and the rest of that WR corps may be permadead.

Comedy Marcell Ateman (OAK) option for his 16 yards on 10 targets

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VietCampo
Aug 24, 2010
I'm grabbing Bruce Ellington in my ppr league.

He's now the #2 on the lions ROS and got 9 and 7 targets the last couple weeks with Jones out and now Jones is on IR.

Butter Hole
Dec 8, 2011

So, dropping Ebron for Doyle...big mistake. BUt his snap percentage!

At least I landed Cameron Brate.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Butter Hole posted:

So, dropping Ebron for Doyle...big mistake. BUt his snap percentage!

At least I landed Cameron Brate.

Field position dependent snap counts and targets are the biggest fantasy pundit blind spot. I bugged nfl next gen stats about more field position dependent snap stuff (oriented around the LOS) and they said it was coming but that was (1) Matt Harmon, who is now with Yahoo! and (2) last spring. I'm not hopeful that'll change outside of someone going through and manually charting everything.

I just want to know expected fantasy points for catching the ball at a specific point on the field and data as to where the balls were caught is that so difficult:argh:

dxt
Mar 27, 2004
METAL DISCHARGE
Just discovered on yahoo (depending on your league settings) you can pick up players on a bye as a free agents still and drop players who were on your bench. I just swooped up KC defense for next week against Oakland. Owned in 39% of yahoo leagues. A good pickup if you have someone worthless on your bench. Bye MVS!

Henrik Zetterberg
Dec 7, 2007

I lost this week by 0.8 points because the stupid PIT kicker threw a stupid loving touchdown. gently caress that guy.

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



So who do I pick up to replace Doyle :rip:

Njoku? McDonald? Heuerman? Herndon? Uzomah?

e: Also Burkhead’s back so :lol: Michel and White owners

Bellmaker fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Nov 27, 2018

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
Njoku

VietCampo
Aug 24, 2010
Heuerman is done for the season, i would take Njoku.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Such an incredible yo-yo for Ebron's value. He posts a no-target zero last week and his value is rapidly collapsing due to Doyle, and now with Doyle out, he's set to be a no-brainer TE1 again the rest of the way.

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt
I like Herndon more ROS actually. (I’m in the minority though).

He had 8 targets Sunday and is the 2nd receiving option and 1st dump off option.

Plus he’s only getting better (and more involved) each week.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

pmchem posted:

Such an incredible yo-yo for Ebron's value. He posts a no-target zero last week and his value is rapidly collapsing due to Doyle, and now with Doyle out, he's set to be a no-brainer TE1 again the rest of the way.

Hello sir, Eric Ebron was a no-brainer TE1 even with Jack Doyle. He had one bad game. Anyway thanks for reading.



This includes the zero target game and not the 2 TD game.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


I mean, if you want to bank on getting a TD on nearly 40% of his receptions with under 4 targets per game, feel free. But Ebron wasn't really widely fantasy relevant until his 31-point PPR game in week 5 (third week with Doyle out). He was not a no-brainer TE1 in weeks 1 or 2 by pretty much any ranking available anywhere. You can't just retcon pre-game rankings based on observed performance. Fact is, Ebron was trending downward, but the injury to Doyle drastically increases his value.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Also, that in-split can't include the zero targets game because it includes 4 games, and the first 4 games in-split with Doyle do not include the zero targets game. 4x3.75 = 15, which does equal the targets in those games. So the season pace #s are wrong. (they both played snaps in weeks 1,2, 8 and 10 [fixed weeks] where Ebron got a total of 15 targets. zero targets was week 11)

pmchem fucked around with this message at 01:00 on Nov 27, 2018

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
"[The man with five touchdowns in his last three games] was clearly trending downward."


Edit: forgot Rotoviz splits app is broken. Here you go:
"In split" is with Jack Doyle. "Out of Split" is without him.



Ebron was only not a no-brainer TE1 because people want to pretend like because Jack Doyle gets a bunch of snaps at like the 50 yard line and Ebron doesn't, that Ebron isn't the prime red zone target for one of the best QBs in the NFL. Like I said, the data isn't there to give any nuance to snaps and routes so fantasy pundits have a huge blind spot to players that break their system with usage.

He's not Tyreek Hill but everyone stomped their feet and held their breath saying he couldn't maintain, either.

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 00:55 on Nov 27, 2018

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


I'll simply state that we'll agree to disagree on his ROS value if Doyle was NOT injured, and end with this:

Spoeank posted:

Glad I stuck with my ebron guns for the third straight year.

Broken clock baby

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
Edit: you know what nevermind

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Apologies if you thought I was too harsh. Just so you know, I drafted Ebron in over half my leagues this year as a TE2, so I am a believer and rooting for him. Can't say I still own him in all those leagues though. Just a couple.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
ban tight ends and kickers from fantasy

SouthShoreSamurai
Apr 28, 2009

It is a tale,
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.


Fun Shoe

Poque posted:

ban fantasy

Gearman
Dec 6, 2011

Poque posted:

ban goons

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
Wow it would be awesome if Keke Coutee and Lamar Miller somehow lead me to victory! Lamar Miller is already having a hell of a game!

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

SalTheBard posted:

Wow it would be awesome if Keke Coutee and Lamar Miller somehow lead me to victory! Lamar Miller is already having a hell of a game!

Ride Lamar plz. Can’t have any points from Keke.

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
RE: Ebron, I have to side with Spoeank. Pundits were all so sure that a healthy Doyle would cut into his opportunities but aside from that one flukey game where he got zero targets I don't think that Doyle really impacted his value much at all. He did get less targets, but the targets he got continued to be some of the most valuable at the TE position.

Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Nov 27, 2018

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
That defensive touchdown the Texans just scored I think sealed the deal for me :(

Gobias Ind.
Apr 5, 2007

If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

SalTheBard posted:

That defensive touchdown the Texans just scored I think sealed the deal for me :(

Are you...from the future?

Mikey Purp
Sep 30, 2008

I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.
Haha, was gonna ask the same thing. I kept waiting for it to happen on my ESPN stream.

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

SalTheBard posted:

That defensive touchdown the Texans just scored I think sealed the deal for me :(

:iiam:

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
I loving misread the scoring for my opponent! Disregard. You saw nothing. I'm really loving tired.

DeepDickPizza
Oct 11, 2012

THREE TIME! THREE TIME!
Good God. My opponent came back from 45 points down tonight mostly on the legs of Deshaun Watson, and took a .03 lead before Watson's ten yard sack put me back in the lead. Ended up winning 150.34 to 150.27, defeating the 7th seed (I'm the 6th seed) and securing my playoff spot. :feelsgood:

please please please no stat corrections

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Playoffs are looking good, but my team is falling apart. It sucks looking back and seeing how much better your team would be if you had done nothing or just dropped John Brown.

Inspector 34
Mar 9, 2009

DOES NOT RESPECT THE RUN

BUT THEY WILL
Have a winning record in both of my leagues for the first time this year. Still probably only going to make playoffs in one of them, but feels good to trade and ww my team back from disaster and hopefully gently caress up someone else's playoff run.

3 DONG HORSE
May 22, 2008

I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization


Apparently I'm not going to make playoffs because H2H wins aren't our tiebreaker..it's PF. :sigh:

e: by 8 points too

3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 08:10 on Nov 27, 2018

Rick Grimes
Oct 12, 2005

We Are The Walking Dead
League breakdown (I know everyone cares)

Old Pink 10-2 - Playoffs locked, Currently first, but there’s another 10-2 and a 9-3 right on my tail. RB/Flex combo of Gurley, McCaffrey & Conner carries me. WRs (2) Evans/Edelman/Cooper’s resurgence not bad either, only 5 add/drops all year.

RPS 9-3 Playoffs locked, Tied for first, can easily drop to 4th depending on last 2 weeks. Hunt is my only good RB, WR core of Julio, Diggs, Edelman, Alshon has been solid, though Jeffrey is fading.

FFL 6-6 Probably done. There was a 6-way tie at 6-5, for places 2-7, but maybe if I win out. Lev Bell first round really hurt. (Early draft)

Auction 5-7 Definitey done. Though, I’ve been playing spoiler on a 3-game win streak. All of a sudden, my team put something together, and hopefully I can take out one more contender.

3 DONG HORSE posted:

Apparently I'm not going to make playoffs because H2H wins aren't our tiebreaker..it's PF. :sigh:

e: by 8 points too
H2H when playing twice? If only once, I think all my leagues do points. But if I beat you twice, I’d have tiebreaker.

Sweeper
Nov 29, 2007
The Joe Buck of Posting
Dinosaur Gum
Surprisingly I’m only starting guys I drafted, minutes def and kicker since I stream those... usually at this point in the season my team has broken down and I’m starting ww trash

Gordon going down makes my lineup much harder to set. Ekeler is good and scored 21 points last game, but didn’t score much the last time Gordon was out. I have J. Adams sitting on the bench who has been doing well lately. Feels weird to have a running back problem which isn’t a Sophie’s choice situation, both could be good!

The Wild Man of YOLO
Apr 20, 2004

A little cross-country, gentlemen?

I secure the last playoff spot if I win this week OR if one particular guy in our league either loses outright or wins but doesn't score 17 points higher than I score. loving bad time for you to get yourself suspended, Fournette :mad:

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



Was in a three-way tie for first, they both lost last week and I did not. 9-3 baby :woop:

Not thrilled about the Mixon/Doyle situations but Kamara/Julio/Thielen has been such a strong core group and Mixon still put up great garbage time numbers Sunday.

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





on the bored wop posted:

I secure the last playoff spot if I win this week OR if one particular guy in our league either loses outright or wins but doesn't score 17 points higher than I score. loving bad time for you to get yourself suspended, Fournette :mad:

This past week I had to win my game and the next three guys in my division had to lose. Naturally the last guy won because his opponent had Nuk and the Texans d/st and his score just kept bouncing back and forth within 2-3 points. :argh:

Been punching above my weight all season and am currently somehow #1 in the division. Don't think that'll last past week 12. Can still get the bye if me and the guy in 2nd both lose, both win, or if I win and he loses. Not optimistic though.

Kloaked00
Jun 21, 2005

I was sitting in my office on that drizzly afternoon listening to the monotonous staccato of rain on my desk and reading my name on the glass of my office door: regnaD kciN

#1 playoff seed clinched in one league with my only concern being that the #2 guy has just as strong a team as me, so I'm admittedly a tad nervous about the championship


Dropped from #3 to #5 in my other league as the #5 guy came back from a near 60 point deficit to beat me thanks to his Watson, Davis and Drake. Still have two weeks to make the playoffs, but with the top 4 teams at 9-3, 8-4, 7-5, 7-5 and me at 6-6 I'm gonna need some luck

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RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Kloaked00 posted:

#1 playoff seed clinched in one league with my only concern being that the #2 guy has just as strong a team as me, so I'm admittedly a tad nervous about the championship

I hope you know that just for assuming you'll make the championship, you've already guaranteed a loss in the first round. Better luck next year.

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