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5a is annoying also because his base will go to their graves crowing WE WERE RIGHT THE DEEP STATE WAS TOO STRONG, never having gotten any comeuppance.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:43
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Data Graham posted:5a is annoying also because his base will go to their graves crowing WE WERE RIGHT THE DEEP STATE WAS TOO STRONG, never having gotten any comeuppance. If trump lives long enough, he remains very likely to die in a prison cell, as do his children. It's just that the timescale on those remedies extends past 2020.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:47
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Stexils posted:they'll never die, there's too many powerful people who want to destroy government and provide a shitload of funding. at worst they lose a ton of seats and power in congress and the presidency, spend a shitload of money revamping with some new branding, then come back next election with a new message and the same policies. there are also a bunch of states where you'll need to smoke them out of power they're so entrenched. I agree with this; there are too many powerful conservative billionares who would see the government burn and be king of the ashes, and as long as Citizens United stands they will find a way to crawl back from whatever political gutter they fall in. Most of these assholes don't support fascism; they support their own grift. Populist fascism is a tool that keeps the poor blaming someone other than them.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:47
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I hope that a GOP that tries going back to dog whistle rather than wolf whistle triggers the long awaited Trumpist third party we expected on the occasion of a Trump primary loss back in the day. On the other hand it gives them cover for weasel work if that happens so maybe not.
remusclaw fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Nov 27, 2018 |
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Nov 27, 2018 17:47
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:
The Dems would have to do something mind blowingly stupid like run Hillary again to lose in 2020.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:48
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C2C - 2.0 posted:Goddamn you continue to astound me with your stupidity! Good thread title, imo.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:48
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:
Nah, the smarter GOP leaders (smarter, not objectively smart) will release a "what we need to do as a party" report saying they need to abandon Trumpism but there are enough true believers in the GOP that the party will actually go even harder on the white nationalism, misogyny, and racism while blaming the ones who said not to as RINOs who cost them the election by not MAGAing hard enough. The base will eat this up.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:51
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Ate My Balls Redux posted:The Dems would have to do something mind blowingly stupid . . . to lose in 2020. So, that's what, like, a 33% chance? Republican voter suppression tactics are proving extremely effective and they have two years to ramp them up further, and the balance in the electoral college is shifting away from the Democrats for the same reasons that the Senate is -- rural states are shifting older and redder, Florida is shifting older and redder, etc. We can't take a Democratic victory in 2020 as a given.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:53
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Shifty Pony posted:Nah, the smarter GOP leaders (smarter, not objectively smart) will release a "what we need to do as a party" report saying they need to abandon Trumpism but there are enough true believers in the GOP that the party will actually go even harder on the white nationalism, misogyny, and racism while blaming the ones who said not to as RINOs who cost them the election by not MAGAing hard enough. The base will eat this up. That's already happened. The only people left are true believer sycophants. Those people could theoretically abandon Great Leader Trump -- every cult of personality can collapse -- but it would require embarrassing public failure first. Once and if Trump loses the election, he's no longer Big Daddy President, he's just a loser who lost. and who is probably facing criminal charges (under the scenario above).
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Nov 27, 2018 17:55
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:So, that's what, like, a 33% chance? i think bernie could win. anyone else....nah. it'll be a crazy primary at least.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:56
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:So, that's what, like, a 33% chance? That's not really quite true, though, because the number of electoral college electors can shift with population. Number of senators doesn't.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:57
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:So, that's what, like, a 33% chance? Don't dems now control the state governments in MI, WI, and PA? The Clinton states plus those three is a win, and that's the easiest path.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:57
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Stexils posted:i think bernie could win. anyone else....nah. it'll be a crazy primary at least. Almost anybody *could* win but there's a big leap from could to would. Most of the Democratic challengers I see getting talked up have zero charisma and I doubt would be any more effective at dealing with Trump than any of his Republican challengers were.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:58
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Stexils posted:i think bernie could win. anyone else....nah. it'll be a crazy primary at least. Maybe. I think the inside reaction would make the PUMA folk from 2008 seem like a kitten batting at a ping pong ball in comparison. Bloomberg or some other billionaire wanker would run a 'centrist, common sense' campaign out of principle and be fellated by the media to hitherto unseen levels.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:59
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Xombie posted:That's not really quite true, though, because the number of electoral college electors can shift with population. Number of senators doesn't. That shift happens after 2020 though. If all the population has already moved but we're waiting on a new census to confirm it. . .
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Nov 27, 2018 17:59
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Hellblazer187 posted:Don't dems now control the state governments in MI, WI, and PA? The Clinton states plus those three is a win, and that's the easiest path.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:59
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Maybe a charisma black hole could pull Trump in. Maybe the populace will say "This guy's boring as poo poo! Thank gently caress!" That's why I nominate black Al Gore who unlike Al Gore doesn't sexually harass masseuses
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Nov 27, 2018 18:00
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:So, that's what, like, a 33% chance? Eh the electoral college including house numbers kinda limits this. Yeah having a bunch of three vote empty states would be skewed representation but it's not going to win anything. Current demographic trends lead to a very blue house and that outweighs the Senate math by a lot
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Nov 27, 2018 18:01
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Dapper_Swindler posted:oh most assuredly.  That is all. Paul Manafort is one of the scummiest, self-serving people on the planet.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:01
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Hellblazer187 posted:Don't dems now control the state governments in MI, WI, and PA? The Clinton states plus those three is a win, and that's the easiest path. In MI at least dems won (most of) the state-wide races, but afaik the legislature is still majority republican because of gerrymandering.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:01
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AlBorlantern Corps posted:Maybe a charisma black hole could pull Trump in. That turned out to be true? Did he settle out and hush it up?
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Nov 27, 2018 18:02
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Sephyr posted:Maybe. I think the inside reaction would make the PUMA folk from 2008 seem like a kitten batting at a ping pong ball in comparison. Bloomberg or some other billionaire wanker would run a 'centrist, common sense' campaign out of principle and be fellated by the media to hitherto unseen levels. yeah but as HA notes all the establishment people have 0 charisma and bernie is much more well known and popular than when he started in 2015. hillary, biden and bloomberg don't stand a chance.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:02
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https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1067452714790121479
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Nov 27, 2018 18:02
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That shift happens after 2020 though. If all the population has already moved but we're waiting on a new census to confirm it. . . Republicans don't really have the advantage in 2020 without the Great Lakes states, of which right now they only have Ohio. And even then they might not have it for Trump, because Ohio just re-elected Brown. The way that the population is shifting also favors the Democrats in North Carolina by 2020. The places that young voters are moving out of are already deep red in every presidential election, and the places they're moving to are swing states.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:06
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Brony Car posted:That turned out to be true? Did he settle out and hush it up? I don't know I just assumed it's true
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Nov 27, 2018 18:06
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Stexils posted:yeah but as HA notes all the establishment people have 0 charisma and bernie is much more well known and popular than when he started in 2015. hillary, biden and bloomberg don't stand a chance. Eh. . . ish Biden is almost certainly the front runner right now but he will probably shoot himself in the dick somehow. Bloomberg has an outside shot at pulling a Ralph Nader and act as a spoiler in the general -- that's one of the ways Trump wins. I don't think Hillary will be able to get the funding for a second run. Right now I think the most likely scenario is all the zero-charisma centrists snipe away at each other and the progressive wing stays clear for Bernie but it's anybody's game at this point.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:08
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Xombie posted:Republicans don't really have the advantage in 2020 without the Great Lakes states, of which right now they only have Ohio. And even then they might not have it for Trump, because Ohio just re-elected Brown. The way that the population is shifting also favors the Democrats in North Carolina by 2020. The places that young voters are moving out of are already deep red in every presidential election, and the places they're moving to are swing states. GM abandoning Ohio will definitely turn the tables.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:09
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That lady does not want to win re-election in 2020 (or knows she can't after Kavanaugh)
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Nov 27, 2018 18:09
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Your Taint posted:But Hillary supposedly got a debate question in advance on time guys. I wish there was something that could be done about this. Maybe there is, but I don't know what it would be. It is extremely bad and problematic that we have a rabid and scrupleless "news" outfit that is entirely in bed with and functionally the media arm of the GOP and will push any and all lies and engage in that sort of deceit to advance their goals under the guise of a free press. Like, maybe educating people to be more critical about what media try to tell them would help in the very long term, but people are dumb as gently caress and I'm just not confident that would be enough. We need morons to plain disengage and just focus on their on miserable lives, but then it's probably far too late for that.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:10
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AlBorlantern Corps posted:
Isn't this Black Bolt's real name?
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Nov 27, 2018 18:10
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I don't think Hillary will be able to get the funding for a second run. Imo she will Jeb! herself, she’ll have funding and party backing and then promptly flame out in the first primaries. Biden will be owned by MeToo. Harris has the strongest establishment case at this point and her weak points aren’t weak points to the wider Dem primary electorate I think.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:11
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saltylopez posted:In MI at least dems won (most of) the state-wide races, but afaik the legislature is still majority republican because of gerrymandering. With the blue wave conquering many state-level elections, we'll see how that turns out in 2020, not right now. Redistricting will take a bit of time. MI however, being basically the home soil of the klan, you tell me. I guess today will tell a bit. E- And seriously, WTF is wrong with Ohio?
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Nov 27, 2018 18:11
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Young Freud posted:GM abandoning Ohio will definitely turn the tables. It probably won't, it's one factory is in rustbelted Northeast Ohio. Soybean farmers declaring bankruptcy in droves is probably more influential, but the Senate will desperately bail them out.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:11
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KillHour posted:That lady does not want to win re-election in 2020 (or knows she can't after Kavanaugh) What does Maine's D bench even look like?
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Nov 27, 2018 18:12
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Young Freud posted:GM abandoning Ohio will definitely turn the tables. Yeah, Ohio will be flat-out red unless the Democrats figure out a way to counter the fascist narrative.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:13
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Lightning Knight posted:Imo she will Jeb! herself, she’ll have funding and party backing and then promptly flame out in the first primaries. Biden will be owned by MeToo. Harris has the strongest establishment case at this point and her weak points aren’t weak points to the wider Dem primary electorate I think. Nobody's funding or backing a Hillary repeat. And she's too old to do something for a decade and come back. Once you lose a Presidential race, people talk about giving you another shot but nobody gets one since Nixon. Especially when you went up against someone who was widely considered a weak candidate: Hillary got her chance, blew it, and nobody in the party is giving her another one. There are a lot of things that are forgivable in politics, but failure at that level isn't really one of them.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:14
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Stexils posted:yeah but as HA notes all the establishment people have 0 charisma and bernie is much more well known and popular than when he started in 2015. hillary, biden and bloomberg don't stand a chance. Hillary, Biden and Bloomberg *don't* stand a chance (and odds are good at least 2 of 3 don't even run). But they're not going to be the establishment candidates that Bernie's up against: he'll be facing some combination of Harris, Booker, Beto, Gillibrand, and Brown, all of whom are more charismatic than Hillary (not a high bar, admittedly) and have bases to draw from. Hieronymous Alloy posted:So, that's what, like, a 33% chance? Voter suppression tactics are gong to be weaker in 2020 given how many state governments the Republicans lost control of in one form or another. More importantly, the election's not going to be held tomorrow. There's two more years ahead of us, and they're not going to be good ones for Trump. With the House running full defense for him and a "soaring" economy, he STILL suffered major midterm losses. The House is about to switch from being a vital ally to a major enemy, the economy is almost certainly going to take a downswing, and that's not even factoring wildcards like whatever Mueller will do. Trump in 2020 is going to be in a much worse position than he is in 2018, and he's not in a great position in 2018.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:15
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Kobayashi posted:Yeah, Ohio will be flat-out red unless the Democrats figure out a way to counter the fascist narrative. See, I always thought it was the "bringing back manufacturing jobs" bullshit that won Ohio over. What do you mean?
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Nov 27, 2018 18:16
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evilweasel posted:Nobody's funding or backing a Hillary repeat. And she's too old to do something for a decade and come back. Once you lose a Presidential race, people talk about giving you another shot but nobody gets one since Nixon. Especially when you went up against someone who was widely considered a weak candidate: Hillary got her chance, blew it, and nobody in the party is giving her another one. You should toxx on this imo
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Nov 27, 2018 18:16
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evilweasel posted:Nobody's funding or backing a Hillary repeat. And she's too old to do something for a decade and come back. Once you lose a Presidential race, people talk about giving you another shot but nobody gets one since Nixon. Especially when you went up against someone who was widely considered a weak candidate: Hillary got her chance, blew it, and nobody in the party is giving her another one. I think I disagree and it’s primarily because Hillary is in the unique situation of being married to a former president and having a lot of loyalists in the party establishment itself since the Clintons remade the party in their image in the 90s. That institutional support isn’t going to translate to base support tho imo.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:16
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