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Trabisnikof posted:You’re describing 2016, we’re talking about 2020. 2020 might be fundamentally worse for Trump than 2016, if nothing else because the electorate is around 2% less blue-collared whites in 2020 than 2016 that's his margins in PA/WI/MI right there can he win, yeah for sure he's the incumbent and if the economy is good, if the economy is bad he most likely lose If economy is more or less same as today in 2020 it's gonna be super close down to the wire election
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Nov 27, 2018 19:12
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That is a really bold prediction to make in the face of not having any other variable including who is running against him. I'm not saying that economy-at-my-doorstep isn't the most important factor – it is – but there are a lot more, ahem, unknown unknowns.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:18
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Lightning Knight posted:Because there's also been a huge upswell of right-wing populist movements and in the event of a huge collapse that might be the catalyst a lot more people need to join them. Trump's base is totally disconnected from reality and they might respond to a collapse by hardening against their Other rather than disbanding. ...because they haven't done this already? Trump's base has been disconnected from reality for decades. It just became more obvious when he became President. I'm not talking about hardcore partisans--no one will shake them loose from either side. Trump is already President; the right-wing populist movements only work if the guy in power isn't on their side. If the economy tanks on his watch, people will blame him.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:18
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:...because they haven't done this already? Trump's base has been disconnected from reality for decades. It just became more obvious when he became President. I'm not talking about hardcore partisans--no one will shake them loose from either side. I would posit that the difference between today and say, 20 years ago, is that there is now a pervasive network of social media and traditional media dedicated to convincing these people that Trump is always good and right and any problems are caused by the Other in a way that has been more successful than any previous propaganda system in the US.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:20
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Lightning Knight posted:I would posit that the difference between today and say, 20 years ago, is that there is now a pervasive network of social media and traditional media dedicated to convincing these people that Trump is always good and right and any problems are caused by the Other in a way that has been more successful than any previous propaganda system in the US. Your argument feels like it's implying that there's a meaningful number of people who don't support Trump currently but could. I feel like the opposite is true; he's at his ceiling and been there for a while, and every new thing works only to mobilize the number of people against him.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:23
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Z. Autobahn posted:Your argument feels like it's implying that there's a meaningful number of people who don't support Trump currently but could. I feel like the opposite is true; he's at his ceiling and been there for a while, and every new thing works only to mobilize the number of people against him. It is implying that, because there's a lot of lovely white people in America who are a few bad days, economically speaking, from jumping into the gaping maw of white nationalist messaging and xenophobic scaremongering against immigrants. That's what scares me, especially since we're looking at a current Democratic Party that is leaning very hard on college-educated white subrubanites to prop them up.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:27
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The counter point to this is that the last two times the economy poo poo the bed while a Republican was the US president, the US elected FDR and Barack Obama, respectively. The voters will not reward Trump for a recession.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:29
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Hellblazer187 posted:The counter point to this is that the last two times the economy poo poo the bed while a Republican was the US president, the US elected FDR and Barack Obama, respectively. The voters will not reward Trump for a recession. The counter counter point to this is that neither Hoover nor Bush were willing to go full fascist and blame the economy collapsing on the Other. Edit: that said I don't think that it would help Trump win the election per se, though it will probably result in more right-wing domestic terrorism.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:31
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Lightning Knight posted:It is implying that, because there's a lot of lovely white people in America who are a few bad days, economically speaking, from jumping into the gaping maw of white nationalist messaging and xenophobic scaremongering against immigrants. That's what scares me, especially since we're looking at a current Democratic Party that is leaning very hard on college-educated white subrubanites to prop them up. I guess I just have a hard time imagining there is a meaningful amount of white people who 1) Are not currently supporting Trump 2) *Would* support him if things went bad economically on his watch "Trumpism cannot be failed" makes sense to me if you're already a believer, but it doesn't work as an inroad. And I think it's much easier to gain populist support when you're blaming your predecessor than when things are actively falling apart while you're in charge. Lightning Knight posted:though it will probably result in more right-wing domestic terrorism. This I absolutely agree with.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:32
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Kobayashi posted:no DC campaign consultants. The entire reason DC campaign consultants exist is because it's literally impossible to have a family and run campaigns. You are working/traveling 24/7 and will never see your spouse/children. That might be worth it if you're working on a Presidential campaign, but it's not going to fly if it's Jane Smith For Congress/County Board/etc. There aren't enough people willing to sacrifice their entire life just for political candidates. Once people get established they all go to DC and work on multiple campaigns at once because then they at least get to see their families and aren't on the road all the time. I don't know how to fix the problem, but there's a legitimate reason these organizations exist. edit: seriously, look at low level candidate staffing for fun sometime. everyone who's employed by the actual candidate is in their 20s because they're the only people who can afford to spend literally their whole existence running the campaign. I had a roommate who worked for Obama in 2012 and I saw her only a few times during the entire summer+fall and she said it's worse the lower on the totem pole you go. axeil fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Nov 27, 2018 |
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Nov 27, 2018 19:32
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Kobayashi posted:No corporate money, Kobayashi posted:no DC campaign consultants. e: It's not this reason though: axeil posted:The entire reason DC campaign consultants exist is because it's literally impossible to have a family and run campaigns.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:34
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Z. Autobahn posted:I guess I just have a hard time imagining there is a meaningful amount of white people who I mean I totally hope that I'm incorrect. I'm stating what I fear to be the worst case scenario to be. Alternatively the other worst case scenario is that we get a repeat of Obama, i.e. the economy crashes under a poo poo tier Republican president, the resulting Democratic president doesn't effectively mitigate the crisis or the resulting PR issues, and then a much worse Republican president takes over after the Democratic president.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:35
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:e: It's not this reason though: The reason they're effective is they're largely made up of the 20-something veterans of campaigns who want to have families/spouses/lives after they get a bit older. They're the more experienced group.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:38
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Lightning Knight posted:I mean I totally hope that I'm incorrect. I'm stating what I fear to be the worst case scenario to be. IMO the worst case scenario is Trump has a heart attack, Pence takes over and makes a big show of being the 'reasonable' Republican, is way more competent and the party is able to jettison the baggage of Trump before they have to pay for it. Lightning Knight posted:Alternatively the other worst case scenario is that we get a repeat of Obama, i.e. the economy crashes under a poo poo tier Republican president, the resulting Democratic president doesn't effectively mitigate the crisis or the resulting PR issues, and then a much worse Republican president takes over after the Democratic president. That's pretty likely IMO, especially if the Dems don't manage to take the Senate.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:39
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Probably not hiring consultants who get direct kickbacks for spending your money on worthless ads is a decent compromise position for any candidate.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:39
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Lightning Knight posted:Alternatively the other worst case scenario is that we get a repeat of Obama, i.e. the economy crashes under a poo poo tier Republican president, the resulting Democratic president doesn't effectively mitigate the crisis or the resulting PR issues, and then a much worse Republican president takes over after the Democratic president. I find this to be much more likely (and equally concerning).
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Nov 27, 2018 19:41
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Lightning Knight posted:I mean I totally hope that I'm incorrect. I'm stating what I fear to be the worst case scenario to be. or worse yet, the economy crashes in 2021 then people will go "oh trump might be bad but he made economy good!!!" for next 30 years
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Nov 27, 2018 19:48
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Typo posted:or worse yet, the economy crashes in 2021 oh god I'm going to have nightmares about this.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:49
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Lightning Knight posted:oh god I'm going to have nightmares about this. tbf it's no different than bill clinton
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Nov 27, 2018 19:49
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Lightning Knight posted:oh god I'm going to have nightmares about this. How many European languages do you speak? Start working on that IMO. Also marry a European. I can't imagine wanting to live in the US under this scenario. Hellblazer187 fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Nov 27, 2018 |
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Nov 27, 2018 19:50
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Hellblazer187 posted:How many European languages do you speak? Start working on that IMO. Also marry a European. I can't imagine wanting to live in the US under this scenario. Sure go ahead and pretend that Europe isn't well on their way to their own Fascist Groove thang. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9B-uWoYs3X4 That song was prophetic, it was just a few decades early.
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Nov 27, 2018 20:35
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Hellblazer187 posted:How many European languages do you speak? Start working on that IMO. Also marry a European. I can't imagine wanting to live in the US under this scenario. lol Europe is boned too, what are you talking about? Besides I'm already engaged to an American, I've made my bed and now I'll lay in it. 
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Nov 27, 2018 20:39
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I dunno I think Europe has a good 20 years longer than the US before they go full fash. Most of their systems are actually closer to democratic as well.
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Nov 27, 2018 21:02
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from what i can tell, the general consensus for the next crash is 2019/2020 its expected to be even worse than 2008 due to massive corporate debt my presumption is that if/when the dems win in 2020 then it will definitely crash because it makes sense for it to crash then. part of the dem platform will have to include economic reforms which will spook the casino capitalists we've got now. that is, of course, if it doesn't collapse before the election the economy is already artificially overinflated, it has to recede in order to grow back more healthy anyway. there's no way to get the kind of economic reforms this country needs while simultaneously maintaining the status quo
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Nov 28, 2018 01:27
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I really hope it waits until the end of 2019 to crash because I'm hella broke and my housing situation is not secure. If it crashes before May I'm probably boned lmao.
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Nov 28, 2018 01:36
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Lightning Knight posted:I really hope it waits until the end of 2019 to crash because I'm hella broke and my housing situation is not secure. If it crashes before May I'm probably boned lmao. my wife and i are kinda hoping for a housing crash cuz we want to buy a place to live and denver is too expensive. we're even considering renting for another year or two to see if it happens since the denver market has pretty much plateaued anyway sure, that's a lovely loving position to hold, but don't hate the player, hate the game (capitalism)
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Nov 28, 2018 01:39
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RaySmuckles posted:my wife and i are kinda hoping for a housing crash cuz we want to buy a place to live and denver is too expensive. we're even considering renting for another year or two to see if it happens since the denver market has pretty much plateaued anyway I mean if it crashes in like, August or September I'll probably be ok, depending on if I or my fiance lose our jobs or not. We're currently stuck because she had to move for her job but I had to stay here so we are juggling leases and trying to get people to take mine over so I can move too. 
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Nov 28, 2018 01:41
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I can't help but feel like it is a lot closer than people think, like first quarter of 2019 close. I hope I'm wrong.
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Nov 28, 2018 01:46
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https://twitter.com/JRBoh/status/1067578454382731265
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Nov 28, 2018 01:48
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Lightning Knight posted:I mean if it crashes in like, August or September I'll probably be ok, depending on if I or my fiance lose our jobs or not. We're currently stuck because she had to move for her job but I had to stay here so we are juggling leases and trying to get people to take mine over so I can move too. You need to be like everyone else from Wisconsin and move to Minneapolis. Kobayashi posted:I can't help but feel like it is a lot closer than people think, like first quarter of 2019 close. I hope I'm wrong. My GF works in corporate finance and she predicts 50% chance of an official recession in 2019 (two quarters of reduction in GDP) and an almost certainty of one in 2020 if it doesn't happen in 2019. She is thinking 18 months. The 2007/2008 recession was 19 months. Its gona suck.
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Nov 28, 2018 01:49
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If there is a recession, how the candidates respond to it is probably going to be a big factor in who comes out ahead. There's a lot of room for candidates to bungle their responses and stated policy goals.
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Nov 28, 2018 01:53
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Lightning Knight posted:If there is a recession, how the candidates respond to it is probably going to be a big factor in who comes out ahead. There's a lot of room for candidates to bungle their responses and stated policy goals. Sure, but this is one where the Democrats really should have the advantage. The reason Presidents typically don't claim credit for the economy over and over again is because that kind of ownership means you also get the heat when it goes bad. Not to say the Democrats can't gently caress up a sure thing, but this one would be a real reach.
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Nov 28, 2018 02:01
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I look forward to President Bernie winning a landslide election after promising to reopen Rikers and throw every last banker in there.
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Nov 28, 2018 03:11
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Hellblazer187 posted:I dunno I think Europe has a good 20 years longer than the US before they go full fash. Most of their systems are actually closer to democratic as well. Most positive comments about Europe (which is overly vague, since it heavily depends which specific country you're talking about) are also heavily dependent upon the person being white. Lightning Knight posted:I mean if it crashes in like, August or September I'll probably be ok, depending on if I or my fiance lose our jobs or not. We're currently stuck because she had to move for her job but I had to stay here so we are juggling leases and trying to get people to take mine over so I can move too. Becoming mod of D&D is gonna begin a downward spiral where you lose your job due to the increasing demands of the role. In the end you're going to be laying in a ditch, breathing your last breath, and cursing the fact that you ever made that choice.
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Nov 28, 2018 03:19
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Ytlaya posted:Becoming mod of D&D is gonna begin a downward spiral where you lose your job due to the increasing demands of the role. In the end you're going to be laying in a ditch, breathing your last breath, and cursing the fact that you ever made that choice. Still not the worst thing to happen to a D&D mod
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Nov 28, 2018 03:26
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The Glumslinger posted:Still not the worst thing to happen to a D&D mod lol fuuuuuuuck. Edit: also I'd like to register that as of today, if Beto runs in a presidential primary in 2020 I am absolutely opposed to him on the basis of his public support of Israel, as well as any other candidate that chooses to jump on that grenade. If Bernie decides to be dumb about Israel too then honestly gently caress America.
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Nov 28, 2018 03:35
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full brexit will 100% crash the stock economy
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Nov 28, 2018 03:37
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full brexit fucks a huge amount of united states corporations that operate in the EU since most of them have UK hqs
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Nov 28, 2018 03:38
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lol good luck with that, you chump you loving rear end in a top hat
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Nov 28, 2018 03:39
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The Glumslinger posted:Still not the worst thing to happen to a D&D mod 
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Nov 28, 2018 03:40
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