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 Interestingm a few key points - Mortar could have hit chemical weapon facility in aleppo? -Rebels launched mustard gas via artillery strike which is not hard to make like sarin gas. I don't really see a gain off of gassing aleppo by rebels. Why not save this for thwarting a regime attack like a normal conflict. Assad used gas to force areas to surrender aka offensive in nature. Rebels are in no place for any offensives, so the only reason to use gas other than terror i guess, is on assad's troops or obs points/ garrisons. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 05:25 on Nov 25, 2018 |
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Nov 25, 2018 05:17
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Lightning Knight posted:Oh poo poo that's a thread, my bad. Yes it is. Rebels have used chlorine gas in the past, though most cases documented have been by the government. LeoMarr posted:
If this was an accidental release it probably wasn't a chemical weapons facility that was hit, but rather a civilian industrial facility. Chlorine has many uses beyond your pool. I think mustard gas is probably not the culprit even if the first witnesses reported a smell different from what we would expect with chlorine gas, I still think it is the mostly likely culprit. I don't know if the Syrian government has ever been found to use mustard gas, but if this was an accidental release there are lots of potential sources. It could even be something like hydrogen sulfide escaping from blocked sewers or something that involves an attack by neither the government nor rebels. Squalid fucked around with this message at 07:06 on Nov 25, 2018 |
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Nov 25, 2018 07:02
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Worth noting sulphur mustard has a delayed effect, several hours, and only ISIS are confirmed to have used it.
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Nov 25, 2018 08:04
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Brown Moses posted:Worth noting sulphur mustard has a delayed effect, several hours, and only ISIS are confirmed to have used it. Is chlorine gas easily made in a non factory setting? I feel its doubtful that the tactical decision to gas aleppo was made by the syrian resistance. It would do nothing to benefit the campaign so why waste the resource? WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 08:30 on Nov 25, 2018 |
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Nov 25, 2018 08:19
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It would be pretty easy to get hold of chlorine gas, it has a wide range of applications, including water treatment, so I don't think they'd need to manufacture it. The most revealing aspect of this will be what the munitions look like, any effective chlorine munition would have a minimal explosive payload, so you'd expect the munition remnants to be nearly complete. I'd consider it highly suspicious if the Syrian and Russians don't present the munition remains to the public.
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Nov 25, 2018 10:11
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Russia's bombing the area west of Aleppo now, which (combined with whatever the gently caress happened yesterday) is the biggest breakdown of the Idlib truce yet. In other news, the SDF had a(nother) bad day in the south yesterday: https://twitter.com/NRT_English/status/1066659888913358848 Even if the Kurds are distracted in the north, and the US has to devote some energy to playing peacekeeper there, it's pretty crazy that the US has allowed the situation in the south to deteriorate so badly. It's been weeks since the collapse and rout of the last offensive, and there doesn't seem to be any urgency to solve the situation. At one point the US was the least cynical actor with regard to ISIS, but now we seem to genuinely prefer to keep them as a dangerously unstable buffer rather than allowing the regime to take a crack at the pocket we've been unable to clear. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 13:48 on Nov 25, 2018 |
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Nov 25, 2018 13:46
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Sinteres posted:Russia's bombing the area west of Aleppo now, which (combined with whatever the gently caress happened yesterday) is the biggest breakdown of the Idlib truce yet. Holy gently caress that’s a lot of dead Kurds. I wonder how this will affect things.
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Nov 25, 2018 18:20
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Sinteres posted:At one point the US was the least cynical actor with regard to ISIS, but now we seem to genuinely prefer to keep them as a dangerously unstable buffer rather than allowing the regime to take a crack at the pocket we've been unable to clear. I was literally typing up a question about where these ISIS forces are based. An attack this large means (probably) the ISIS force was of decent size. Are there still large areas that aren't being patrolled by coalition aircraft/drones or are these forces integrated in civilian areas. Or, is the US strategy what you are stating?
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Nov 25, 2018 20:46
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pro starcraft loser posted:I was literally typing up a question about where these ISIS forces are based. An attack this large means (probably) the ISIS force was of decent size. Are there still large areas that aren't being patrolled by coalition aircraft/drones or are these forces integrated in civilian areas. There is a legitimate problem with ISIS forces being dispersed in civilian areas, and Russia and the regime have been making a point of amplifying ISIS messaging about the US bombing civilians when we do launch strikes against ISIS these days. Obviously we killed civilians in Raqqa and Mosul too, but I think the US had an easier time sweeping those deaths under the rug for a time then, whereas the post-battle casualty toll that was uncovered may make hiding future civilian deaths more difficult. I don't think the US ever flat out decided we didn't want to capture that pocket, but the whole ambiguous post-ISIS game plan where we'd still clearly like to remain to block Iran from accessing the area does likely play into a lack of urgency when it comes to dealing with it imo, in addition to Turkey continually keeping the effective parts of the SDF busy in the north. I think inter-ethnic tensions between the Kurds and local Arab tribes don't particularly help either, as evidenced by local residents displaying the FSA flag rather than the SDF flag after the last ISIS infiltration was pushed back.
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Nov 25, 2018 23:50
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Brown Moses what's your take on the Matthew Hedges case regarding the allegations?
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Nov 26, 2018 10:14
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It's not something I've really followed closely, could be he just misjudged the situation. I see he's been pardoned this morning.
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Nov 26, 2018 10:17
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I find it hard for the UAE, with the huge ties they have with UK in pretty much anything, to just accuse random UK citizens of being MI-6, they had to know it was going to be a shitshow.
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Nov 26, 2018 10:19
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I suspect the rapid trial and pardon was just to save face after the initial arrest and poo poo show, that way they can say they were right, but also avoid long term consequences and campaigning against them.
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Nov 26, 2018 10:22
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This is a very cool project from Airwars and Amnesty you can get involved with, good place to start learning how to do some open source investigation skills as well, IDing building damage in Raqqa to measure the level of destruction: https://decoders.amnesty.org/projects/strike-tracker
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Nov 26, 2018 12:19
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Afghan update: https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/11/20/as...EQ_AUIBigB&rm=1 Suicide bomber killed 50+ in Kabul. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/world/asia/us-soldiers-killed-afghanistan.html 1 US Army Ranger killed by "friendly fire" from Afghan soldier. 3 more US soldiers killed by an IED near Ghazni City.
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Nov 28, 2018 00:11
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https://twitter.com/Qattouby/status/1067510814901501953 News about her death in prison broke today. This kinda thing used to matter, but you won't hear a word about her.
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Nov 28, 2018 06:09
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Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/Qattouby/status/1067510814901501953 Did she go by another name or something? I've tried googling her, and you'd think there would be more out there from the last couple years just because she was missing and presumed dead, but  I'm not trying to make light of it this, but one black and white picture and a date of birth doesn't paint much of a picture of a life. I'm genuinely interested in knowing more about how she ended up there (and kind of looking for confirmation that this is real before I seriouspost about how delaying confirmation works as media manipulation, particularly in light of current events which have proven to be more shocking).
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Nov 28, 2018 09:34
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Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/Qattouby/status/1067510814901501953 Especially an American citizen, you'd think the State Dept would be all over this. NOPE!
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Nov 28, 2018 13:22
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Speaking of America the vote against the War in Yemen advanced with an almost veto proof majority.
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Nov 28, 2018 22:56
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The Yemen conflict is, bar none, the least publicly supported American involved action I've ever heard of. I don't think I've heard a single person either privately or publicly voice a defense of the Saudi actions. Even people who generally want to reduce Iranian influence seem pretty categorically horrified by what's been happening in Yemen.
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Nov 28, 2018 23:26
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You really couldn't ask for a better crown prince than MBS. The damage he has done to KSA's relations with the west has been incredible. Even a lot of the people I suspect would always stand opposed to the idea of a break in US/Saudi relations have sided against him in the internal power struggle, and as a result, their arguments just empower those arguing that Saudi Arabia deserves to be treated as a pariah state. The writing is on the wall and it rules. I think since Trump has made the alliance with KSA such a big part of his political identity, a big part of the political identity of the inevitable reaction against him is going to be dissolving that alliance. I expect to hear a lot more hostility towards the regime moving forward from political figures of all stripes, which is such a breath of fresh air. I figured we would start completely ignoring Iran's human rights abuses before we ever started seeing KSA's, but it's nice for reason to win the day for once.
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Nov 28, 2018 23:48
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Shageletic posted:Speaking of America the vote against the War in Yemen advanced with an almost veto proof majority. I have a depressing feeling that I can spot the key word in this sentence.
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Nov 29, 2018 00:14
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Its def gonna put a damper on things. Even when Reagan went behind Congress's back durjng Iran Contra he still had the support of his party.Volkerball posted:You really couldn't ask for a better crown prince than MBS. The damage he has done to KSA's relations with the west has been incredible. Even a lot of the people I suspect would always stand opposed to the idea of a break in US/Saudi relations have sided against him in the internal power struggle, and as a result, their arguments just empower those arguing that Saudi Arabia deserves to be treated as a pariah state. The writing is on the wall and it rules. I think since Trump has made the alliance with KSA such a big part of his political identity, a big part of the political identity of the inevitable reaction against him is going to be dissolving that alliance. I expect to hear a lot more hostility towards the regime moving forward from political figures of all stripes, which is such a breath of fresh air. I figured we would start completely ignoring Iran's human rights abuses before we ever started seeing KSA's, but it's nice for reason to win the day for once. Its pretty extraordinary. SA influence in DC is literally a billion dollar industry. And Trump and MBS managed to knee cap it just by being insanely arrogant and stupid.
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Nov 29, 2018 00:36
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In this case, the war in Yemen has been privatized, as far as the US is concerned. The main issue is that Yemeni civilians are being blown up by American bombs, which are dropped by Arab air forces. I don't think this decision addresses that - or does it? In other words, the only resolution that would deal with Yemen in moral way would cut off all military-industrial ties with the Saudis.
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Nov 29, 2018 01:24
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Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/Qattouby/status/1067510814901501953 Yikes. The comments: -Very sad she was Killed by Assad! End US support of opposition to Assad now! -She was happy she was executed! -She was a terrorist, hooray Assad for killing all the terrorists! -She was a CIA Agent!!
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Nov 29, 2018 01:52
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KSA and USA signed a deal today for KSA to buy $15 billion-worth of THAAD equipment and interceptors. That's a lot of THAAD.
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Nov 29, 2018 02:20
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As far as purchases go w/r/t Yemen that's pretty benign. Unless they find a use for THAAD that doesn't involve shooting down ballistic missiles.
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Nov 29, 2018 02:40
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It's not really about using THAAD against Yemen, though I could see THAAD being used defensively against threats coming out of Yemen. More about arming up against Iran. And buying influence. This is also obviously a many-years-on deal.
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Nov 29, 2018 02:56
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steinrokkan posted:In this case, the war in Yemen has been privatized, as far as the US is concerned. The main issue is that Yemeni civilians are being blown up by American bombs, which are dropped by Arab air forces. I don't think this decision addresses that - or does it? According to the measure, https://www.sanders.senate.gov/download/yemen-fact-sheet?inline=file, US tanker refuels make daily Saudi bombings possible. It would also signal a loss of support that makes it much more precarious for Saudi to continue losing Yemen.
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Nov 29, 2018 17:37
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mlmp08 posted:KSA and USA signed a deal today for KSA to buy $15 billion-worth of THAAD equipment and interceptors. That's a lot of THAAD.
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Nov 29, 2018 17:53
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Toplowtech posted:Did Iran give a poo poo ton of ballistic missiles to Yemen or did the Quatari princes finally brought some hardware? “poo poo ton,” is hard to quantify, but Iran certainly smuggled ballistic missiles into Yemen in the past.
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Nov 29, 2018 17:56
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Here's a name you don't hear from the mouths of US politicians very often. https://mobile.twitter.com/raif_badawi/status/1068206000564576257 Raif was arrested several years ago for running a blog. His wife has become a bit of activist herself, and runs a campaign to release him from I think Canada. His release, and the release of Loujain Hathloul and the other feminist activists who have been detained, should be major sticking points.
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Nov 29, 2018 22:36
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mlmp08 posted:It's not really about using THAAD against Yemen, though I could see THAAD being used defensively against threats coming out of Yemen. More about arming up against Iran. And buying influence. This is also obviously a many-years-on deal. Ballistic missiles being launched at Saudi cities from Yemen is an ongoing problem. They shouldn't really need any other incentive.
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Nov 29, 2018 23:22
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Warbadger posted:Ballistic missiles being launched at Saudi cities from Yemen is an ongoing problem. They shouldn't really need any other incentive. I would say its much more about them trying to blunt the Iranian missile barrage in a potential conflict. That and the evidence that their patriot system doesn't have the best interception record. Maybe if they weren't bombing and starving Yemen they would be spared the odd missile.
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Nov 29, 2018 23:33
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Warbadger posted:Ballistic missiles being launched at Saudi cities from Yemen is an ongoing problem. They shouldn't really need any other incentive. The magnitude of the order would be utterly loving stupid if their concern were only Yemen. And the vast majority of what Yemen has slung is short range piddly stuff that THAAD doesn't even engage. The higher profile shots toward Riyadh, sure. It's about Iran proper, not the ones and twos coming out of Yemen. Edit: 360 interceptors are not a counter-Yemen purchase. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 03:18 on Nov 30, 2018 |
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Nov 30, 2018 02:02
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Volkerball posted:Here's a name you don't hear from the mouths of US politicians very often. Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 05:43 on Nov 30, 2018 |
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Nov 30, 2018 05:40
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mlmp08 posted:It's not really about using THAAD against Yemen, though I could see THAAD being used defensively against threats coming out of Yemen. More about arming up against Iran. And buying influence. This is also obviously a many-years-on deal. I would imagine Iran doesn't want the THAAD radar system near their territory. I think that was China's main concern with the deployment in SK.
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Nov 30, 2018 07:03
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This seems like an unusually friendly greeting between the leaders of Russia and Saudi Arabia: https://twitter.com/ahmed/status/1068529363082129409 They may have their differences with regard to Syria, but killing journalists is the glue that binds them together. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Nov 30, 2018 |
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Nov 30, 2018 16:45
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Spergin Morlock posted:I would imagine Iran doesn't want the THAAD radar system near their territory. I think that was China's main concern with the deployment in SK. UAE already has two THAAD systems and there’s an AN/TPY-2 (THAAD radar with different software) in Qatar surveilling Iran.
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Nov 30, 2018 17:28
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Sinteres posted:This seems like an unusually friendly greeting between the leaders of Russia and Saudi Arabia: Putin would love to fill the vacuum if the USA were to actually drop the KSA.
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Nov 30, 2018 18:06
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