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Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Spergin Morlock posted:

I would imagine Iran doesn't want the THAAD radar system near their territory. I think that was China's main concern with the deployment in SK.

Well, China wasn't really worried about one more modern RADAR (to add to the mountain of naval and ground based RADARs Japan and Korea already had). It was about putting pressure on South Korea.

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Radio Prune
Feb 19, 2010
https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1068482628611973122

Spergin Morlock
Aug 8, 2009

Warbadger posted:

Well, China wasn't really worried about one more modern RADAR (to add to the mountain of naval and ground based RADARs Japan and Korea already had). It was about putting pressure on South Korea.

That makes sense.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

this is extremely my poo poo

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

Cat Mattress posted:

Putin would love to fill the vacuum if the USA were to actually drop the KSA.

I mean that's got to be like 90% of the reason we put up with their poo poo, right?

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

Cat Mattress posted:

Putin would love to fill the vacuum if the USA were to actually drop the KSA.

Would he? He'd become responsible for keeping things calm between them and Iran.

Totally Reasonable
Jan 8, 2008

aaag mirrors

Absurd Alhazred posted:

Would he? He'd become responsible for keeping things calm between them and Iran.

I strongly doubt that any situation will make Putin become responsible in any way.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013


Why post a tweet with a link, and not just the link?

Thanks in any case though.

ecureuilmatrix
Mar 30, 2011

Volkerball posted:

Here's a name you don't hear from the mouths of US politicians very often.

https://mobile.twitter.com/raif_badawi/status/1068206000564576257

Raif was arrested several years ago for running a blog. His wife has become a bit of activist herself, and runs a campaign to release him from I think Canada. His release, and the release of Loujain Hathloul and the other feminist activists who have been detained, should be major sticking points.

Yep! :canada::hf::quebec: His wife and kids have been living in [my hometown!] Sherbrooke for some time. There's a huge tapestry of Badawi hanging from the facade of the town hall, in front of which are support events every other week (meetup #200 was a month ago, I think?). Badawi got preapproved for immigration should he be released (:smith:) The local Amnesty Inter chapter has basically become the Official Badawi support staff, making his wife somewhat of a local celebrity. The regional support for his family has been very heartening, yup.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
^^^ Lol that's awesome. Thanks for sharing. In the US she would just get glared at.

Absurd Alhazred posted:

Would he? He'd become responsible for keeping things calm between them and Iran.

Pariah dictators actually tend to stick together through thick and thin more than democratic countries from what I've seen. The US and the west abandoning KSA would be an existential threat to their regime, so they would absolutely find a place in that axis. The KSA/Iran relationship would probably look something like the ~hostility~ between KSA and Israel now.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Count Roland posted:

Why post a tweet with a link, and not just the link?

Thanks in any case though.

To be fair, Twitter auto-embeds a thumbnail, headline, and subheading. Plus you can click anywhere in the link box to go straight to the linked page.

Booourns
Jan 20, 2004
Please send a report when you see me complain about other posters and threads outside of QCS

~thanks!

Fuschia tude posted:

To be fair, Twitter auto-embeds a thumbnail, headline, and subheading. Plus you can click anywhere in the link box to go straight to the linked page.

And people on these forums have shown time and time again that they can't even be bothered to look at the date of tweets that are posted, let alone actually click through to the article before forming their opinions so maybe more article posting would help

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Fuschia tude posted:

To be fair, Twitter auto-embeds a thumbnail, headline, and subheading. Plus you can click anywhere in the link box to go straight to the linked page.

Oh, they don't display for me, I just see a random twitter link and have to click through for the content.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Count Roland posted:

Oh, they don't display for me, I just see a random twitter link and have to click through for the content.

Are you using a phone app?

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

steinrokkan posted:

Are you using a phone app?

No, but I browse with a lot of blockers enabled so its probably that.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
There's a setting in your user panel that affects it too I think.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Count Roland posted:

Oh, they don't display for me, I just see a random twitter link and have to click through for the content.

With FF, you have to allow trackers only in private windows for Tweets to embed.

bradburypancakes
Sep 9, 2014

hmm. hmmmmmmmm
Macron said the quiet part a little too loud

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/30/macron-saudi-arabia-mbs-conversation-g20-summit-caught-on-mic

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
https://twitter.com/ZainaErhaim/status/1068869271617441792

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/ShibleyTelhami/status/1069092157728980992

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013


Does... does this matter? No foul play suspected, so guy had a heart attack or OD'd on a secret coke problem, or something. Was this guy in particular important?

e: CBS is calling it suicide

Spacewolf
May 19, 2014

Count Roland posted:

Does... does this matter? No foul play suspected, so guy had a heart attack or OD'd on a secret coke problem, or something. Was this guy in particular important?

e: CBS is calling it suicide

Fifth Fleet is the entirety of US Navy forces in the Middle East.

Coldwar timewarp
May 8, 2007



Spacewolf posted:

Fifth Fleet is the entirety of US Navy forces in the Middle East.

Suicide apparently. Also who cares. The guy has a deputy who has stepped in. The only thing which would be a concern is what? An Iranian assassination? To what end?

Deserves to be in a mental health thread more than this one.

If we find Soleimani ate a bullet I would be a lot more interested. I guess it would also be a lineup of one nation.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Spacewolf posted:

Fifth Fleet is the entirety of US Navy forces in the Middle East.

And this guy's death changes this not one bit, someone else fills his position, and whoever is in the position is merely following orders anyway.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Count Roland posted:

and whoever is in the position is merely following orders anyway.

This is fishmech-level "correct" but ignores that the sudden death of the NAVCENT commander is still a big deal. When you get to that level of command, personality and GO initiatives become pretty significant.

orange sky
May 7, 2007

https://twitter.com/oamaz7/status/1069315221108506624?s=19

According to the article the Saudis used Israeli software to get to the messages

Heh

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

mlmp08 posted:

This is fishmech-level "correct" but ignores that the sudden death of the NAVCENT commander is still a big deal. When you get to that level of command, personality and GO initiatives become pretty significant.

Yeah that's really loving weird for him to just keel over. Even as a suicide it is exceptionally unusual.

Spacewolf
May 19, 2014
Qatar is leaving OPEC

I cannot figure out if this is a big thing or not.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
Partly wrt that /\ I wrote up a post recently then accidentally deleted it (cuz I'm super smart) about how the Saudi purchase of missile defense systems isn't in response to a specific threat, but rather is a part of their greater militarization.

It's weird actually how quietly Saudi Arabia has become the third largest military spender on the planet (only the US and China spend more). While they've lacked a lot of institutional military knowledge that comes from having an old and experienced officer corps, that's going to change rapidly. They obviously intend to be one of the world's foremost military powers.

Of major significance: Saudi Arabia is spending 10% of their GDP on their military, that's 2.5-5x more than any of the other top spenders. They're militarizing at a ridiculously fast rate.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Spacewolf posted:

Qatar is leaving OPEC

I cannot figure out if this is a big thing or not.

OPEC is a lot less important than it used to be. Saudi policy over the last several years has been over production to keep prices down, which has been unpopular with other members which has led to much disagreement.

As well, the US is now a huge producer of oil and is far less sensitive to pressure from other producers.

IMO this just weakens the cartel further.

qkkl
Jul 1, 2013

by FactsAreUseless

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Partly wrt that /\ I wrote up a post recently then accidentally deleted it (cuz I'm super smart) about how the Saudi purchase of missile defense systems isn't in response to a specific threat, but rather is a part of their greater militarization.

It's weird actually how quietly Saudi Arabia has become the third largest military spender on the planet (only the US and China spend more). While they've lacked a lot of institutional military knowledge that comes from having an old and experienced officer corps, that's going to change rapidly. They obviously intend to be one of the world's foremost military powers.

Of major significance: Saudi Arabia is spending 10% of their GDP on their military, that's 2.5-5x more than any of the other top spenders. They're militarizing at a ridiculously fast rate.

I doubt KSA is actually planning on using their military, I think the arms deals are just a tribute payment to the US.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

qkkl posted:

I doubt KSA is actually planning on using their military, I think the arms deals are just a tribute payment to the US.

Occasionally you have stopped watch posts, this is definitely not one of them.

1) they already are
2) saudi internal rhetoric treats the eventual conflict with Iran/shiite as completely inevitable and this has ramped up a ton in the last 5 years
3) look at how MBS is acting, he knows he's militarily nothing to gently caress with and gives no shits. People like that don't build militaries for nothing

4) 10% of gdp going into military is completely ridiculous, like holy poo poo alarm bells should be going off that they are gearing up for war

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Dec 3, 2018

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Occasionally you have stopped watch posts, this is definitely not one of them.

1) they already are
2) saudi internal rhetoric treats the eventual conflict with Iran/shiite as completely inevitable and this has ramped up a ton in the last 5 years
3) look at how MBS is acting, he knows he's militarily nothing to gently caress with and gives no shits. People like that don't build militaries for nothing

4) 10% of gdp going into military is completely ridiculous, like holy poo poo alarm bells should be going off that they are gearing up for war

10% gdp towards military. Jesus you need a pretty sizeable acquisition to hit roi on that

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
It's pretty clear the order in which they are planning on acquiring new territories.

Ironically the last precedent in the region for militarizing aggressively and rapidly off of dwindling oil money was Iraq under Saddam in the lead up to the Iraq vs Iran war, which for the unaware was a fantastically violent and brutal conflict. So much so that it hosed with the psyche of both involved countries in a huge way even decades later.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

qkkl posted:

I doubt KSA is actually planning on using their military, I think the arms deals are just a tribute payment to the US.

Yeah never mind their years long war in Yemen?

They already sent APCs into Bahrain during the Arab Spring. They could certainly do that again. And Saudi tanks rolling into Qatar I think would surprise nobody at this point.

qkkl
Jul 1, 2013

by FactsAreUseless
Ok now I see it. The US wants to go to war with Iran but they don't want a Vietnam situation, so they made a deal with KSA where KSA does most of the fighting with US support. In exchange for playing a big role in the war against Iran KSA will get to annex all of Iran, but will have to keep oil prices stable to benefit the US.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

qkkl posted:

Ok now I see it. The US wants to go to war with Iran but they don't want a Vietnam situation, so they made a deal with KSA where KSA does most of the fighting with US support. In exchange for playing a big role in the war against Iran KSA will get to annex all of Iran, but will have to keep oil prices stable to benefit the US.

tom clancy is rolling in his grave

Kawasaki Nun
Jul 16, 2001

by Reene

qkkl posted:

Ok now I see it. The US wants to go to war with Iran but they don't want a Vietnam situation, so they made a deal with KSA where KSA does most of the fighting with US support. In exchange for playing a big role in the war against Iran KSA will get to annex all of Iran, but will have to keep oil prices stable to benefit the US.

How much weed do you smoke when you wake up on a daily basis?

Seems like KSA wants to become a much more wignificant military force in the region to cajole their gulf state cousins into following lockstep with their other foreign policy goals, which includes the degredation / containment of Iran.

This war in Yemen is unpalatable to almost everyone but is still being supported by the U.S military. I doubt the general populace of the United States would support a direct confrontation with Iran or even significant support for the KSA against Iran unless the KSA was paying for the assistance, and even then it's only dying Hawks that want that kind of confrontation.

Kawasaki Nun fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Dec 4, 2018

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

qkkl posted:

Ok now I see it. The US wants to go to war with Iran but they don't want a Vietnam situation, so they made a deal with KSA where KSA does most of the fighting with US support. In exchange for playing a big role in the war against Iran KSA will get to annex all of Iran, but will have to keep oil prices stable to benefit the US.

User was sued by tom clancy

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Seems the White House is going to claim the recent chemical attack reported in Aleppo on November 24th was essentially a false flag

quote:

Syria’s Assad Has Gassed His Own People, Again

Since Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad began gassing his people half a decade ago, his regime and its Russian enablers have tried to persuade credulous observers that the rebels were doing it to themselves. Now there is new evidence that, last month, the Syrian regime did exactly what it accuses the rebels of doing.

A new White House statement on the incident, scheduled for today, will say a so-called chlorine attack on Nov. 24 was essentially a false-flag operation.

The statement, which reflects the view of U.S. intelligence agencies and was shared with me before its release, says it was not a chlorine gas attack at all, but rather tear gas. What’s more, the U.S. now has “credible information that pro-regime forces” probably used it against Syrian civilians in northwestern Aleppo. It says they are “blaming the attack on opposition and extremist groups to undermine confidence in the ceasefire in Idlib.”

One piece of evidence the assessment cites, ironically, is the consistent narrative about the attack from Russian and Syrian media outlets: Reports agreed that chlorine-filled rockets or mortars against Syrian military personnel were fired by rebels from Idlib. In the past, after admittedly more serious chemical weapons attacks, it took more time for a consistent media narrative to emerge.

The White House statement also says a “technical analysis of videos and images of munition remnants of Russian-media portrayed mortars indicate they are not suitable for delivering chlorine.” Nor did witnesses describe the characteristic odor of chlorine bombs.

Finally, the Syrian regime has maintained control of the site of the alleged attack. The White House is worried that the regime could contaminate the site or fabricate samples to hand over to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

The statement and its evidence are important not only because of what they say about Assad and his allies, but also because of what they mean for the fragile Syrian ceasefire. The Syrian regime used last month’s false-flag attack as a pretext to resume bombing of rebel positions in Idlib. A senior White House official tells me there is a concern that the fabricated attack in Aleppo might end up unraveling the ceasefire even more and force Turkey to respond.

Mouaz Moustafa, the executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, says he is grateful the Trump administration is making its conclusion public. The Assad regime and its Russian and Iranian allies “concocted” this incident last month as a pretense for a military action in Idlib, he says. Moustafa warns that the new offensive “could double the refugees to Europe and kill countless civilians.”

In Syria’s civil war, there is only one side gassing civilians: the government. The White House’s new report makes that abundantly clear. The regime and the rebels are not equally guilty, and anyone who says so is only emboldening the side actually using chemical weapons.

We did a review of the open source material at Bellingcat, seemed a bit fishy, more from the munition remains not really fitting with past chlorine attacks than anything.

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