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Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Why, Lindsey...you look like you could possibly be mildly concerned if you're not careful!

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bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

"Fortunately for us our president is willfully blind and fantastically stupid so I can make mouth noises about this then accomplish no real concrete actions."

axeil
Feb 14, 2006
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1069968682279936000

this is a very pro-read article. nate's summary:

quote:

I want to remind you that our forecasts are probabilistic. Not only are our forecasts for individual races probabilistic, but our model assumes that the errors in the forecasts are correlated across races — that is, if one party’s chances were overrated in one race, they’d likely be overrated in many or all races. Because errors are correlated, we’re going to have better years and worse ones in terms of “calling” races correctly. This year was one of the better years — maybe the best we’ve ever had — but it’s still just one year. In the long run, we want our forecasts to be accurate, but we also want our probabilities to be well-calibrated, meaning that, for instance, 80 percent favorites win about 80 percent of the time.

I say that because we’ve frequently argued that our 2016 forecasts did a good job because they gave President Trump a considerably higher chance than the conventional wisdom did and because our probabilities were well-calibrated. But Trump did win several key states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) in which he was an underdog, and he was an underdog in the Electoral College overall. So 2016 was good from a calibration perspective but middling from an accuracy (calling races correctly) perspective. This year was sort of the opposite: terrific from an accuracy perspective, but actually somewhat problematic from a calibration perspective because not enough underdogs won.

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1070021826053619712

Kale
May 14, 2010


I honestly don't get Lindsay Graham. He's broken with and fallen back in line with all of Trump's bullshit so many times he's lost any sense of credibility he might have ever had as a politician and someone to pay attention to that might actually accomplish something positive or to stand up for democracy and basic human decency, and yet he's still clung to by the media as this leading force that the public needs to pay attention to the speeches of. Like the GOP just lacks any sort of legitimacy to me as a political party at this point that isn't just a destructive partisan force to be wielded against his perceived enemies by a sleazy narcissistic businessman occupying the oval office so it's like okay cool, lot of talk here but we'll see about the action and in the unlikely case there is any what good it does.

Meanwhile the same party at the state level in Wisconsin is about to just defy the will of the people yet again and pull the partisan power grab of a life time.

Hastings posted:

"Mr. President and Sec. of State Pompeo, there is literally video of MBS saying he is going to kill this man."

"I don't think we can say for sure."

It boggles my mind that the GOP is still that okay with leaving this guy in power. Like just how terrified are they of the guys base, it's incredible how much this 30% seems to hold the GOP in total thrall to it's crazed fervor even when trying to pander it did all of jack poo poo during the midterms. Like they won one presidential election off it (to get the most useless president in history that just spends all day golfing and making GBS threads on basically everybody on twitter) due to the electoral college and the added help of the rust belt flipping (and appeared to flip back in 2018 anyway when he couldn't keep his promise of getting them their manufacturing jobs back) yet they've committed themselves to this base apparently forever now. I don't get it on any level I try to examine the situation.

Kale fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Dec 4, 2018

Rampant Dwickery
Nov 12, 2011

Comfy and cozy.
It all comes down to "he says the quiet part out loud," buddy. If 45 had the slightest bit of :decorum: he'd be lockstep with him in both rhetoric and votes.

Instead of, y'know, just the votes.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

:siren: Dow Jones has tumbled 800 points over Cooling Economy Fears :siren:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjO1bMHbDpY

Solaris 2.0
May 14, 2008

China is reportedly 'puzzled and irritated' by Trump

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/china-confused-by-trumps-words-of-triumph-after-trade-truce.html

TLDR A few days ago Trump had a private meeting with Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires at the G-20 and, in typical Trump fashion, he claimed afterwords via Twitter that the Chinese caved on a few key provisions and agreed to a 90 day truce. Naturally calling it "one of the largest deals ever made." The Market was elated and smart people on the economic sites were praising Trump.

Except, the Chinese made no such promises. Or if they did, it was meant to be "hush hush" while negotiations continued. Trump being Trump, he mouthed off, the Chinese are furious, the Markets confused, and the Dow is now down like 800 points. lol.

Spacewolf
May 19, 2014
Curiosity: Do the markets still have "circuit breakers" in place to stop trading if there's enough of a decline during a day's trading?

Old Kentucky Shark
May 25, 2012

If you think you're gonna get sympathy from the shark, well then, you won't.


Spacewolf posted:

Curiosity: Do the markets still have "circuit breakers" in place to stop trading if there's enough of a decline during a day's trading?

Yes, although today's drop didn't even make it close to the 1st 15-minute circuit breaker (7%).

Arturo Ui
Apr 14, 2005

Forums Bosch Expert

Spacewolf posted:

Curiosity: Do the markets still have "circuit breakers" in place to stop trading if there's enough of a decline during a day's trading?

Yes, the circuit breaker is now based on the S&P 500 and the first one is at 7% (it dropped 3.24% today)

JasonV
Dec 8, 2003

Dow Jones drops a tad after finding out Trump may have fibbed about China which had led to it rising a tad previously.

DACK FAYDEN
Feb 25, 2013

Bear Witness
https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1070085085108547584

While this is technically more President-related, I think "the first person has pled the Fifth to Congress" is general enough news to go here!

fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012

DACK FAYDEN posted:

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1070085085108547584

While this is technically more President-related, I think "the first person has pled the Fifth to Congress" is general enough news to go here!

Maybe someone else know more specifics but I'm reasonably sure you can't blanket plead the fifth in order to refuse to show up for a hearing

Mister Mind
Mar 20, 2009

I'm not a real doctor,
But I am a real worm;
I am an actual worm
I love these loving weirdos.

https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1070096832875913216

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1070107251656945665

Old Kentucky Shark
May 25, 2012

If you think you're gonna get sympathy from the shark, well then, you won't.


fool_of_sound posted:

Maybe someone else know more specifics but I'm reasonably sure you can't blanket plead the fifth in order to refuse to show up for a hearing

You can blanket plead the fifth in response to a request for documents that you feel to be too vaguely worded, although that isn't guaranteed to be upheld, but it's super moot in this case because this moron wasn't even subpoenaed and you cannot and don't need to plead the fifth to a politely worded non-binding letter; you just say "no."

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

That's mean. He's mean. You're mean. Well played.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
:siren::siren::siren::siren::siren:
https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1070112369253052417
:siren::siren::siren::siren::siren:

Spacewolf
May 19, 2014
Stop being cruel.

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

I saw "pee tape" and my heart stopped and then I was crushed. 😭

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1070117752180891648

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Keep posting the thing PopeHat.

fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012
Don't post dumb jokes by the libertarian law guy in this thread, try USpol

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1070110615627333632
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1070110927788347393
https://twitter.com/RudyGiuliani/status/1070118915139923968

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer
You actually don't need to keep posting the same Twitter thread, people can click the thread if they want to read more.

Nathan Robinson on why Beto is shockingly pretty poo poo outside of the context of a Texas Senate race lmao.

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo
https://twitter.com/APEastRegion/status/1070122583155195904

friendbot2000
May 1, 2011


Wait, something actually happened with the Panama Papers? I am legit surprised.

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo
https://twitter.com/bradheath/status/1070129392767168512

marshmonkey fucked around with this message at 02:50 on Dec 5, 2018

JasonV
Dec 8, 2003
So I guess Whitaker is in his office going through all the redacted stuff right now, huh?

fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012

JasonV posted:

So I guess Whitaker is in his office going through all the redacted stuff right now, huh?

He almost certainly read it before it was filed. He just knows his position is really precarious and he doesn't want to interfere too much too early.

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1070130185343811585

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

drat proud of our progressive brethren.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

I'm guessing that the reason it didn't happen the other time is because someone didn't immediately buy up the domain, right? Of course, Rudy's brain is, like his boss, rancid soup, so he would never understand this.

:laffo: at the idea that Twitter is anti-Trump though.

Data Graham
Dec 28, 2009

📈📊🍪😋



Fritz Coldcockin posted:

I'm guessing that the reason it didn't happen the other time is because someone didn't immediately buy up the domain, right? Of course, Rudy's brain is, like his boss, rancid soup, so he would never understand this.

:laffo: at the idea that Twitter is anti-Trump though.

More like because he doesn’t realize that it isn’t “period without a space”, it’s “word-period-valid country code TLD” and the other times he left out the space it didn’t make it into a link because it didn’t form a valid activatable URL.

I know it’s not necessarily fair to expect Rudy to understand about regexes, but any tech-savvy person who has ever defended him has some mental gymnastics to do now.

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo
https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1070149544724365312?s=19

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?
choice quote

https://twitter.com/K8brannen/status/1070134803591282688

Kale
May 14, 2010


It blows my mind that this guy crying about needing a safe space was once mayor of NYC and actually kind of respected at one point. He and Trump are two peas in a pod. What a baby. Like this guy just fits as Trump's lawyer and he probably thinks Rudy is just absolutely crushing it for him. Really hoping Mueller can put the nail in the coffin of this presidency soon so if anything I don't have to
hear the POTUS and his lawyer whining the days away for another week. It's really long past time to put this presidency out to pasture and get the U.S back to being led by functioning adults.

Kale fucked around with this message at 09:03 on Dec 5, 2018

Skippy McPants
Mar 19, 2009

Kale posted:

It blows my mind that this guy crying about needing a safe space was once mayor of NYC and actually kind of respected at one point. He and Trump are two peas in a pod.

Even as mayor of NYC Giuliani was extremely poo poo. If it weren't for a bunch of glamor shots he stood for during 9/11 nobody would even know who he was, let alone care. Also, a big reminder: Giuliani was only out on the street because he insisted that his emergency command center be housed in WTC 7. When later called on this fact, he tried to blame the emergency services director he had appointed and who specifically recommended the headquarters be located somewhere safer.

Wikipedia posted:

In September 2006, Village Voice writer and long-time Giuliani critic Wayne Barrett and Dan Collins, a senior producer for CBSNews.com, published The Grand Illusion: The Untold Story of Rudy Giuliani and 9/11, one of the strongest reassessments of Giuliani's role in the events of 9/11. The book highlights his decision to locate the NYC Office of Emergency Management headquarters (long-identified as a target for a terrorist attack) on the 23rd floor inside the 7 World Trade Center building, a decision that had been criticized at the time in light of the previous terrorist attack against the World Trade Center in 1993.

The Office of Emergency Management was created to coordinate efforts between police and firefighters, but with the distraction of evacuating its headquarters, it was not able to conduct these efforts properly.

In May 2007, Giuliani put responsibility for selecting the location on Jerome M. Hauer, New York City’s first Director of Emergency Management who had been appointed by Giuliani himself and had served under Giuliani from 1996 to 2000. Hauer has taken exception to that account in interviews and has provided FoxNews and New York Magazine with a memo demonstrating that he recommended a location in Brooklyn but was overruled by Giuliani. Television journalist Chris Wallace interviewed Giuliani on May 13, 2007, about his 1997 decision to locate the command center at the World Trade Center. Giuliani laughed during Wallace's questions and said that Hauer recommended the World Trade Center site and claimed that Hauer said that the WTC site was the best location. Wallace presented Giuliani a photocopy of Hauer's directive letter. The letter urged Giuliani to locate the command center in Brooklyn, instead of lower Manhattan, because "not as visible a target as buildings in lower Manhattan." The February 1996 memo read, "The [Brooklyn] building is secure and not as visible a target as buildings in Lower Manhattan."

Dude is a worthless ghoul who lucked into a center stage role during a major terror attack.

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Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

gently caress dude that ghoul only looked good because he had some brown people to blame.

If it were a natural disaster or white terrorism he'd gently caress it up as hard as Trump does today.

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