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Hello. In an effort to save my fleeting sanity this is a current affairs thread. You will: post articles, tweets, pictures, actual news. You will then discuss this. You will not talk about any topic that is not linked as an article, tweet, or picture. You will respect some semblance of journalistic integrity; this is subject to mod interpretation and I would err on the side of caution. Do not post opinion pieces, even if they're published in reputable papers. They're all dogshit. I am not going to set a requirement that you need to post a news article/tweet every post (ala Dog Tax) but that may go into effect later. You will not: discuss anything other than what is linked in this thread. There will be no food derails, dems are bad derails, derails about your life, derails about your dog, derails about other posters and how loving awful they are. If you do so, you will be eating a minimum of a 3 day probe. If you gently caress up in this thread at any point I will poo poo on you from so high that my shits will freeze and become missiles reaching terminal velocity until you stop loving up. This is not the trump thread, do not treat it as such. Happy Posting! Party Plane Jones fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Nov 11, 2018 |
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Nov 11, 2018 19:10
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https://twitter.com/emmanuelmacron/status/1061293561059201024?s=21 This picture is giving that one of Christine Blasey Ford a run for its money for photo of the year. Very powerful.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:19
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Mahoning posted:https://twitter.com/emmanuelmacron/status/1061293561059201024?s=21 I like the twitter preview version more
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Nov 11, 2018 19:21
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Just commenting on this briefly: it was very cool to already have read through the part of the Richard J Evans 3rd Reich book dealing with this period of time as this anniversary passes. This period of time was way crazier than I was taught in school and it bears remembering. We really should study WW1 far more than we do. Anyway, that's all I'll say about it since it was linked here.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:24
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Thanks for the thread PPJ! To start it off, let's talk the 2018 midterms. First, turnout was way up. Like "best in over 100 years" up. https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1061351586579005441 The Dems did well in a lot of states, but failed to take the Senate. Nate Silver made a map illustrating how that looks in terms of House popular vote. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061657448719749120 Nate Cohn notices that the Florida GOP may have found a message that speaks to hispanics or otherwise not done well among their base, making the state a tough one for Dems in 2020. https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061679711942774784 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061680107411161088 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061681553451958273 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061685522567979008
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Nov 11, 2018 19:24
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It's amazing to me that we are holding on to the Senate seat in AZ. https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1061685707314487298
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Nov 11, 2018 19:28
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Thank you very much! I hope this is a kosher question PPJ, but will your tweet dumps generally be a part of this thread as well?
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Nov 11, 2018 19:29
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:It's amazing to me that we are holding on to the Senate seat in AZ. Can someone remind me (and the thread) what happens to the McCain seat? Kyl has it now but isn't there going to be a special election for it soon anyway? The term expires in 2022 IIRC right? I wonder what this means for that seat too. Two Dem AZ Senators would be bonkers.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:29
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Hellblazer187 posted:Thank you very much! I hope this is a kosher question PPJ, but will your tweet dumps generally be a part of this thread as well? Probably. I might do separate ones for USPOL/this thread like I did for Trump/USPOL for a while; or just repost the same post; I haven't decided.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:31
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VH4Ever posted:Can someone remind me (and the thread) what happens to the McCain seat? Kyl has it now but isn't there going to be a special election for it soon anyway? The term expires in 2022 IIRC right? I wonder what this means for that seat too. Two Dem AZ Senators would be bonkers. The McCain seat goes up for election in 2020. McSally is rumored to be getting the seat if she loses (which looks likely).
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Nov 11, 2018 19:32
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VH4Ever posted:Can someone remind me (and the thread) what happens to the McCain seat? Kyl has it now but isn't there going to be a special election for it soon anyway? The term expires in 2022 IIRC right? I wonder what this means for that seat too. Two Dem AZ Senators would be bonkers. Iirc because of how late he left it, it doesn't come up until 2020.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:32
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VH4Ever posted:Can someone remind me (and the thread) what happens to the McCain seat? Kyl has it now but isn't there going to be a special election for it soon anyway? The term expires in 2022 IIRC right? I wonder what this means for that seat too. Two Dem AZ Senators would be bonkers. I believe Kyl is currently the caretaker Senator until the election for it in 2020 but there are rumors he will resign at the start of the year so Governor Ducey can appoint McSally (if she loses) so she has incumbency advantage in 2020. But there is no incumbency advantage for appointed incumbents so I'm not sure what this will accomplish. She also will still need to win a GOP primary for it. After that I do believer there is a "normal" Senate election for it in 2022.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:34
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:It's amazing to me that we are holding on to the Senate seat in AZ. I’ll give credit to McSally and the Republican SoS in Arizona, whose name eludes me at the moment; unlike Scott and the gang in Florida, they’re being exactly as responsible, mature, and respectable as you would want officials to be in an extremely close election. The SoS even put out an explainer of why ballots are taking so long, knocking down conspiracy theories that others are stoking. Could this be because McSally wants to set up a fallback in the event that she loses this, as it looks like she will? Probably; with Kyl leaving his seat in January, the new Arizona governor will need to nominate a Republican to replace him through 2020, and who better than McSally?
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Nov 11, 2018 19:37
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axeil posted:I believe Kyl is currently the caretaker Senator until the election for it in 2020 but there are rumors he will resign at the start of the year so Governor Ducey can appoint McSally (if she loses) so she has incumbency advantage in 2020. Wow lots of Senate elections to come then for AZ, should be very interesting to see who runs, who wins, who loses etc.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:42
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Teddybear posted:I’ll give credit to McSally and the Republican SoS in Arizona, whose name eludes me at the moment; unlike Scott and the gang in Florida, they’re being exactly as responsible, mature, and respectable as you would want officials to be in an extremely close election. The SoS even put out an explainer of why ballots are taking so long, knocking down conspiracy theories that others are stoking. Yeah, I thought Marshall put it well here, McSally's interests are not aligned with the national party's in Arizona due to the likelihood of being appointed and having to run another race in two years, but Rick Scott's are perfectly https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1061431741804634112
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Nov 11, 2018 19:42
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https://twitter.com/MarkHarrisNYC/status/1061492019523129344 I would like to clarify the OP for anyone not up to speed, we are not allowing Dems bad/is electoralism worth it navel gazing philosophical chat because it will take over, but if you want to post articles and tweets by useful sources showing the Democrats to be incompetent boobs, please feel free.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:45
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VH4Ever posted:Wow lots of Senate elections to come then for AZ, should be very interesting to see who runs, who wins, who loses etc. Yeah, they’re going to have senate elections for five cycles straight. McCain in 16, Sinema/McSally in 18, McCain’s replacement in 20, McCain’s replacement again in 22, Sinema/McSally in 24, and then finally in 26 they get a cycle off.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:46
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axeil posted:I believe Kyl is currently the caretaker Senator until the election for it in 2020 but there are rumors he will resign at the start of the year so Governor Ducey can appoint McSally (if she loses) so she has incumbency advantage in 2020. Arizona will have a Senate seat election in every national election from now until 2024: this, McCain's/Kyl's seat in 2020, the winner of that defending the seat in 2022 and then Sinema (likely) defending hers in 2024.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:47
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The ground game is everything in American electoral politics now. Let's stretch that out for people who aren't neck deep in it. You could call advertising the air game, as it were. TV ads, radio ads. But who watches TV anymore? The elderly. That's why every ad for the national evening news is for medication for the elderly. It's reaching the point that daytime gameshow reruns had hit back when. And there's the social media game, but let's be real about that - are we changing hearts and minds on Facebook or Twitter? It's good if you have interest and you're looking to deepen your entrenchment in a specific direction, but it's certainly not a marketplace of ideas. It's a localized steroid for whatever is already in your mind. The ground game? Actually showing up at people's doors, or their phones via calls or text? That's everything now. There is no substitute for seeing another human being and exchanging ideas the way we historically have. Finding out what people actually give a gently caress about - and make no mistake, the average American really DOES care about all the things we holler about, maybe more or less than you do, but certainly multiple things at a time. If you don't go out and make the case for your ideal, for your candidate, or for your power base, you're going to loving lose, barring overwhelming forces of nature. Ted Cruz did a bare minimum of ground work, but also had the fact that Republicanism in Texas is on par with high school football, but also the fact that the levers of power are geared for a Straight Ticket button, the most vile button in electoral politics. Without that button, I'm willing to throw out there that Beto takes Texas. Kobach didn't have a ground game, didn't fundraise, didn't do anything except measure the god damned drapes. He got the result that hubris brings. gently caress him. gently caress anyone who thinks they don't have to convince Americans to vote for you, and that goes for President to Governor to County Board of Supervisors to Yorba Linda Water District to supporter group treasurer. Show up and be present in people's lives, and they will show up for you. And then, and only then, will you change the world.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:48
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Your Boy Fancy posted:
I love that this is almost literally true https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article221350970.html posted:Two weeks out from Election Day when polls showed Kobach in a tight race with Kelly, members of his senior staff did a walk-through of the governor’s office, according to a Republican source.
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Nov 11, 2018 19:59
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Your Boy Fancy posted:The ground game? Actually showing up at people's doors, or their phones via calls or text? That's everything now. There is no substitute for seeing another human being and exchanging ideas the way we historically have. Finding out what people actually give a gently caress about - and make no mistake, the average American really DOES care about all the things we holler about, maybe more or less than you do, but certainly multiple things at a time. If you don't go out and make the case for your ideal, for your candidate, or for your power base, you're going to loving lose, barring overwhelming forces of nature. Ted Cruz did a bare minimum of ground work, but also had the fact that Republicanism in Texas is on par with high school football, but also the fact that the levers of power are geared for a Straight Ticket button, the most vile button in electoral politics. Without that button, I'm willing to throw out there that Beto takes Texas.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:10
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That bit about Florida's Hispanic population is incredibly depressing. What the hell would make Republicans attractive down there outside of the ever-shrinking population of Cuban exile dickheads who still think it's 1960?
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Nov 11, 2018 20:20
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Is the Florida thing a matter of needing to run more locally-appealing candidates? Nelson’s incredibly old and boring, and I loved Gillum, but he feels like a national politician, not a specifically Florida one. That said, tbh, I think it’s safe to assume Florida as red in the next Presidential election and plot a course without it.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:23
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:That bit about Florida's Hispanic population is incredibly depressing. What the hell would make Republicans attractive down there outside of the ever-shrinking population of Cuban exile dickheads who still think it's 1960? I had read that ”socialism = Venezuela” arguments may have resonated with portions of the South American/Cuban Latino population in that area of Florida. I don’t know if the evidence bears that out at all but I guess it’s worth investigating.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:24
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Yeah, even if you put aside the voter suppression/electoral tampering, both Nelson and Gillum ran much closer than anyone expected and that's a little alarming. Gillum was supposed to stomp DeSantis and drag Nelson over the finish line, and then Nelson ended up doing slightly better than Gillum.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:25
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Mahoning posted:I had read that ”socialism = Venezuela” arguments may have resonated with portions of the South American/Cuban Latino population in that area of Florida. Gillum talking about foreign policy was a bit of an unforced error. I don't live in Florida but I'm betting the GOP took full advantage.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:27
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axeil posted:
Hm, I hope returning voting rights to felons helps against this because Florida switching from lean Dem to lean R makes the path to 270 look real awkward for Dems. Of course, the situation is a bit more complex than that. It's just that I'm looking at the red states and feel confident that most of them won't vote for a generic Dem and I think a good number of blue states can go red if a candidate devoid of charisma is at the top of the ticket. I wonder who would be a good Dem to maintain a hold on these states.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:35
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it's official - also can someone explain how to embed tweets properly please?
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Nov 11, 2018 20:36
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:That bit about Florida's Hispanic population is incredibly depressing. What the hell would make Republicans attractive down there outside of the ever-shrinking population of Cuban exile dickheads who still think it's 1960? Florida has the highest Venezuelan expat population of any state and my impression is that they are not on the left. They're still relatively small compared to other nationalities (something in the range of 100,000 as of 2010 census, probably somewhat larger now), but Cubans certainly aren't the only conservative hispanic demographic.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:36
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SousaphoneColossus posted:it's official - also can someone explain how to embed tweets properly please? If you just paste the link to the tweet, it will embed itself automatically. I don’t know if it shows up on post previews. Nemo Somen posted:Hm, I hope returning voting rights to felons helps against this because Florida switching from lean Dem to lean R makes the path to 270 look real awkward for Dems. Of course, the situation is a bit more complex than that. It's just that I'm looking at the red states and feel confident that most of them won't vote for a generic Dem and I think a good number of blue states can go red if a candidate devoid of charisma is at the top of the ticket. I wonder who would be a good Dem to maintain a hold on these states. Amendment 4 isn’t quite as automatic as it sounds— there’s a requirement to repay court costs, I believe, that’s going to make it tough for the very poor to afford restoration. But it will have an impact if by sheer numbers alone— we’re talking over a million newly eligible voters. Even if a fraction of them meet the new requirements and vote, that’s hundreds of thousands of new voters. Florida in 2020 is going to look different from 2018, for sure. Edit: It’s also a huge improvement over the old system, where governors had effectively arbitrary control over whether individual felons had rights restored. You would need to individually plead your case to the governor and the cabinet, and he could deny you for any reason without recourse or appeal. https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/09/11/pleading-for-the-right-to-vote-in-florida-one-case-at-a-time/ Teddybear fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Nov 11, 2018 |
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Nov 11, 2018 20:41
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Nemo Somen posted:Hm, I hope returning voting rights to felons helps against this because Florida switching from lean Dem to lean R makes the path to 270 look real awkward for Dems. Of course, the situation is a bit more complex than that. It's just that I'm looking at the red states and feel confident that most of them won't vote for a generic Dem and I think a good number of blue states can go red if a candidate devoid of charisma is at the top of the ticket. I wonder who would be a good Dem to maintain a hold on these states.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:45
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Teddybear posted:If you just paste the link to the tweet, it will embed itself automatically. I don’t know if it shows up on post previews. it doesn't - which is why I assumed it wouldn't work. thank you!
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Nov 11, 2018 20:45
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SousaphoneColossus posted:it doesn't - which is why I assumed it wouldn't work. thank you! If you're using FF, you have to loosen up your trackers settings to get Twitters to embed.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:49
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Who could have foreseen how constructing a police state to deal with immigration might end up being used to discipline unruly corporate franchise owners?quote:7-Eleven accused of weaponizing ICE raids to shed troublesome franchisees Even if the speculation here is wrong and ICE isn't being directed to go after unruly franchise owners the mere fact you can write a story openly hypothesizing about this and it doesn't even seem unusual or surprising really speaks to how much an unbelievably bad situation has become normalized.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:54
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So when the deadline passes and the recount hasn't been completed, what will happen? SOS just gets to say "Better luck next time, assholes" and that's it?
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Nov 11, 2018 20:54
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Teddybear posted:Amendment 4 isn’t quite as automatic as it sounds— there’s a requirement to repay court costs, I believe, that’s going to make it tough for the very poor to afford restoration. But it will have an impact if by sheer numbers alone— we’re talking over a million newly eligible voters. Even if a fraction of them meet the new requirements and vote, that’s hundreds of thousands of new voters. Florida in 2020 is going to look different from 2018, for sure. I've repeatedly seen this come up with people poo-pooing Amendment 4's potential effect (not that you are here) but to date I've seen no statistics that suggests there's a huge population of former felons that still have outstanding court fees. While I'm sure some exist - particularly ones that have very recently finished jail or probation - I'm skeptical it's enough to seriously affect things when we're talking about 1.5 million people. A whole lot of those probably completed their sentences years or decades ago, and it's hard to go about your life for that long owing a court a lot of money because many will start doing punitive poo poo like suspending your driver's license for it. I could be wrong, but I know people that were involved with getting the amendment on the ballot this year and none of them seem to be sounding the alarm that there's still this huge impediment that could seriously diminish the impact of the win.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:57
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Cefte posted:I found the first sentence reminded me of something, and it was the LaCour fiasco, which for those who aren't glued to news of scientific retractions, was a faked social science study that claimed that transgender canvassers, but not straight canvassers, could effect a significant and maintained improvement in attitudes to transgenderism. What I hadn't followed was that a non-faked follow-up showed that a real effect of canvassing could be measured, but was independent of the status of the canvassers, which really double-underlines your argument. Anyone can do it! Get involved! I don't have the links to articles about it now, but many Democratic campaigns this past election really tried to implement the conclusions of this research. The methods on the ground always lag the best practice in the literature, but people are paying attention. eke out posted:Florida has the highest Venezuelan expat population of any state and my impression is that they are not on the left. They're still relatively small compared to other nationalities (something in the range of 100,000 as of 2010 census, probably somewhat larger now), but Cubans certainly aren't the only conservative hispanic demographic. Yes but most of these are people who immigrated within the last decade I believe. Probably the vast majority are not yet citizens and couldn't vote.
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Nov 11, 2018 20:58
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Zeeman posted:So when the deadline passes and the recount hasn't been completed, what will happen? SOS just gets to say "Better luck next time, assholes" and that's it? I think they can just say “what you’ve done you’ve done.” I would expect that there would be lawsuits to try to get a court to order recounts to continue beyond the deadline. The recount in Florida is going to be worse than 2000. 2000 was one statewide race of six million votes; 2018 is three statewide races of eight million votes each, plus the occasional local recount on top. There’s a real chance that this could go up the judiciary once more. eke out posted:I've repeatedly seen this come up with people poo-pooing Amendment 4's potential effect (not that you are here) but to date I've seen no statistics that suggests there's a huge population of former felons that still have outstanding court fees. I’ll defer to you, then; I don’t know the details of Florida criminal law, I practice neither Florida law nor criminal law, so I go off my understandings from afar. Teddybear fucked around with this message at 21:02 on Nov 11, 2018 |
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Nov 11, 2018 21:00
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Teddybear posted:Amendment 4 isn’t quite as automatic as it sounds— there’s a requirement to repay court costs, I believe, that’s going to make it tough for the very poor to afford restoration. But it will have an impact if by sheer numbers alone— we’re talking over a million newly eligible voters. Even if a fraction of them meet the new requirements and vote, that’s hundreds of thousands of new voters. Florida in 2020 is going to look different from 2018, for sure. As a legit question, is there a plan for a charity or something so that people can donate to help defray these costs? What's an impossible amount of money for somebody who's poor isn't for me or a lot of other people, and I think getting ex-criminals (with a few caveats that the actual ammendment covers) back involved with the democratic process is a pretty good thing. It's also a help you-help me situation, since I think that adding these people to the electorate would do wonders at pushing the GOP to be more reasonable in their rhetoric. I know there was discussion that something like 40% of black men in FL were disenfranchised, which is an amount that both unbelievable and also all to believable.
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Nov 11, 2018 21:01
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