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Lote posted:Tesla +2% in premarket. Life is parody now. I have seen the smocking gun and he is us. Bro you have to stick to something you're good at, ie, gambling at the poker table.
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Dec 10, 2018 14:33
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Residency Evil posted:Bro you have to stick to something you're good at, ie, gambling at the poker table. But gambling is gambling right?
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Dec 10, 2018 16:50
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greasyhands posted:
holy poo poo, this was a bad move
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Dec 10, 2018 17:15
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greasyhands posted:holy poo poo, this was a bad move Better hope another CEO under investigation dies in a car crash
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Dec 10, 2018 17:19
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musk is literally using his gently caress you money as it is intended to be used 
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Dec 10, 2018 17:36
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greasyhands posted:holy poo poo, this was a bad move Still think it's a good stock if you are in it longterm. Right now it is just trending with overall market. They recently got a new land near mexico. So their output will increase. Iran sanctions are still NOT on. They got waivers so once the waivers expire in 5-6 months, oil will skyrocket as long as OPEC reduces their supply as they said. Also DJI and SPX both broke key support levels last week/today. I really don't see how some of these investment banks are predicting the bull market to continue such as Bank of America Merill Lynch. The correction is officially as bad as the January 13% but with trade war going on and impending rate hikes. Anyway I lost a few thousand on some poo poo stocks I should have sold but my short etfs and gold stocks are going CRAZY. Good luck to all trading this week and in their long term portfolio. Maybe Trump will tweet something? lol
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Dec 10, 2018 17:39
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Ulio posted:...as long as OPEC reduces their supply as they said... It’s almost always the case that cutting supply is economically Bad for the OPEC countries. There’s too much global supply, and cuts just mean market share decreases.
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Dec 10, 2018 18:04
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Since I hate money, time to get on the TSLA put train as it’s hitting the top of its range the last few months.
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Dec 10, 2018 18:06
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Woodchip posted:Since I hate money, time to get on the TSLA put train as it’s hitting the top of its range the last few months. Why did Crazy Train just start playing? Where’s that coming from? Edit: One of the guys that I follow on twitter thinks this is a liquidity crunch driven downswing so I added some to my Tesla short. Lote fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Dec 10, 2018 |
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Dec 10, 2018 19:54
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woof, timing was a bit off, it's all going green today. Should've waited for the test of 365. e: welp, going to gap and run one side or the other on that close, gut says up Woodchip fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Dec 11, 2018 |
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Dec 10, 2018 20:08
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If China arrested Melinda Gates while she was traveling through Singapore, imagine how that would play. What I'm trying to say is, gentlemen, I'm not optimistic about these trade talks. Chiming in also to say that I, too, find TSLA's movements hilarious.
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Dec 11, 2018 02:40
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Serious about Tesla. So $TLSA released some news today about an asset backed bond offering for $800 mil today using leases for the Model S/X. They're trying to rate it as high grade but I don't really see how they get a decent price / yield on it. It's a little bit more obvious now about their plan for going into the quarter and why they've been classifying all their warranty problems as "goodwill". It seems like they're trying to cover for the fact that the car's residual value sucks. People are just starting to realize this with all the insurance companies leading the way by jacking up the rates for Model S/X/3s. TSLA sells the ABS to some bank/bondholder, the borrowers default because the car's value has tanked, and the bondholder is on the hook instead of TSLA. Kinda genius that TSLA plays a hit from 2008.  Anyway, the corporate bond market has shat itself. There's like no junk bond issuance right now, so TSLA can't raise money that way. They're prevented from raising money through stock issuance for some unknown reason. Or maybe, they need to keep the stock price high so they have a high enough stock price come Feb/Mar 2019? I don't know. Whatever the case, I'm not sure that TSLA sells out this bond issuance because you would think that the banks would wise up to selling a bunch of lemons, but maybe that's the point. Edit: So if I'm reading this right, they're saying that its going to be 100 bps over EDSF for 1.49 yr, which is something that yields ~1%? That can't be right. Lote fucked around with this message at 07:45 on Dec 11, 2018 |
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Dec 11, 2018 07:20
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Also, random question, but if a bank becomes insolvent and they lent you the margin, does that become an insta margin call?
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Dec 11, 2018 08:13
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Shorting the bank with the money then lent me.
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Dec 11, 2018 09:28
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My buddy helped unwind Lehman Brothers and apparently in the confusion, they let a commodity contract expire so they took delivery of yellowcake uranium Also, there’s some chatter that $DB is gonna go bankrupt. Overlaying it on a chart with Lehman looks almost exactly like 2008 a day or two before it went bankrupt.
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Dec 11, 2018 10:46
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Lote posted:My buddy helped unwind Lehman Brothers and apparently in the confusion, they let a commodity contract expire so they took delivery of yellowcake uranium There was some speculation this summer that they went on the FDIC problem bank list. So maybe. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/07/june-2018-unofficial-problem-bank-list.html?m=1
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Dec 11, 2018 13:47
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You know my doom and gloom posts, but I think it’s worth remembering that even when the yield curve inverted during the last two business cycles, it took quite some time for the actual recession/sell off to happen. And if we have all the algos shorting on that signal, it’s arguably priced in.
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Dec 11, 2018 16:05
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The Tesla ABS bond thing is fairly standard. They're securitizing the lease payments - so giving up future lease payments and yield for money now. When auto leases are originated, Tesla funds them using borrowing via a warehouse line. Once the warehouse line is full, the leases are packaged and sold into the asset backed market via one of these deals. Proceeds from the ABS deal are then used to pay down the warehouse line and the cycle repeats. This is not really Tesla taking on new money to fund future operations. The ABS market operates solely on collateral value and so no inferences can be made from this financing about Tesla's access to the unsecured debt or equity markets. At best, it tells us that Tesla's prior ABS deal is living up to expectations as it pertains to residual values and customers not defaulting on their leases. Typically these things are well over-collateralized to buffer for some losses taking place. But yea, signs are pointing to the residual values dropping fast now and some sucker pension funds are gonna be on the hook.
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Dec 11, 2018 16:29
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fougera posted:You know my doom and gloom posts, but I think it’s worth remembering that even when the yield curve inverted during the last two business cycles, it took quite some time for the actual recession/sell off to happen. And if we have all the algos shorting on that signal, it’s arguably priced in. Last business cycle we didn't have Trump to prop up the market. So twitter basically controls the market. Long $TWTR Trump with his ambiguous "talks are great, announcements soon". The annoucement will probably be a non announcement or something the market already knows has priced in.
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Dec 11, 2018 17:39
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LLCoolJD posted:If China arrested Melinda Gates while she was traveling through Singapore, imagine how that would play. What I'm trying to say is, gentlemen, I'm not optimistic about these trade talks. quote:"A former Canadian diplomat has been detained in China, two sources said on Tuesday, and his current employer, the International Crisis Group, said it was seeking his prompt and safe release. State sanctioned blackmail, trade wars are easy to win
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Dec 11, 2018 17:40
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Risky Bisquick posted:State sanctioned blackmail, trade wars are easy to win  I am stunned that China has retaliated. And I am sure that Trump's morning tweet is 100% accurate.
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Dec 11, 2018 17:48
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Ulio posted:Last business cycle we didn't have Trump to prop up the market. So twitter basically controls the market. Long $TWTR I’d argue trump isn’t really propping up the market anymore. More or less people have removed the trump bump since election, to the degree it was promised than actual results
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Dec 11, 2018 18:09
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Indexes back negative. Buckle up. This appears to be credit driven. $DB may have a liquidity crisis on their hands if their credit default swaps continue spiking. Their bonds apparently also shat themselves. Are they the Bear Stearns or are they the Lehman of 2018/2019? https://twitter.com/stockboardasset/status/1072535319453548546
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Dec 11, 2018 18:09
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So is there a reason not to go nuts with DVMY if Dell is buying back at 120 a share and its at 104 now? Trying to see what im missing here
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Dec 11, 2018 19:11
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Any thoughts on GE? Seems a case of the whole being worth less than the parts. Similarly, SYF. I get that losing Walmart is a big deal, but the loss of value over months seems excessive?
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Dec 12, 2018 05:32
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They’ve got like 100b in debt and their bonds are trading at junk levels. They may get caught in a liquidity crunch.
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Dec 12, 2018 07:16
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Chaosfirev posted:So is there a reason not to go nuts with DVMY if Dell is buying back at 120 a share and its at 104 now? Trying to see what im missing here
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Dec 12, 2018 08:16
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numberoneposter posted:Wondering about this also, but I also jumped on it today. Sold two of my lame duck weed stocks which are 35% down and don't look like they are going anywhere. Holding onto my ACB for sure though. Almost bought Canopy with the money too until I saw the Dell deal. I ended up buying 20 contracts yesterday because even if i dont understand the full scope of this risking 100 for this massive potential upside seems alright.
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Dec 12, 2018 15:45
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fougera posted:I’d argue trump isn’t really propping up the market anymore. More or less people have removed the trump bump since election, to the degree it was promised than actual results Trump's tweets about deals and trade talks do have a direct effect.
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Dec 12, 2018 16:20
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morothar posted:Any thoughts on GE? Seems a case of the whole being worth less than the parts. GE has at least 1-2 more accounting “corrections” in its future. Also, selling off parts that make money isn’t that great of a long term business plan.
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Dec 12, 2018 17:48
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Fuckin UXIN poo poo! Was gonna buy that around 3 and just sat starting at it. The Chinese stuff is driving me nuts
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Dec 12, 2018 19:36
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I don't know that the DVMT trade is a no brainer... $120 offer price in cash for the stock but the total cash available for the deal is $14B and we're currently trading at a 21B mkt cap @ ~$105 - so about 2/3rds of the current shares are going to get cash and the rest are going to get Dell stock somewhere between about 1.5-1.8 Dell Class C shares per share of DVMT. How much is Dell stock worth? Who knows - but the market is not currently pricing 1.5-1.8 shares being worth $120. The options market is certainly not pricing it like $120 is any where close to certain - Jan 105 strike calls are $1.30. EDIT: Some math Shares Outstanding: 199,360,000 Mkt Cap @ $120: 23,923,200,000 Shared Converted @ 120: 58.52% Shares to get Dell stock: 41.48% Avg Cash per share: 70.22 DVMT current price: 105 Residual value: 34.78 Mkt Value of stock to receive: 83.84 hostile apostle fucked around with this message at 20:22 on Dec 12, 2018 |
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Dec 12, 2018 20:06
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$GE having a bad day when everyone’s up and $DB in talks of a forced merger and that’s a good thing
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Dec 12, 2018 21:52
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hostile apostle posted:I don't know that the DVMT trade is a no brainer... Okay that makes more sense, oh well if i pissed away 100 so be it
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Dec 12, 2018 22:39
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So will my calls that expire after the 28th be converted to Dell stock?
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Dec 12, 2018 22:45
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Chaosfirev posted:So will my calls that expire after the 28th be converted to Dell stock? No idea what happens to the calls on DVMT
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Dec 12, 2018 23:29
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Could someone explain to me how $DB and Commerbank merging to form a company with $38B in revenue and $730B in debt not be a terrible idea?
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Dec 13, 2018 00:10
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I picked the wrong day to try and add a bank account to RH, aint poo poo happening there today https://twitter.com/AskRobinhood/status/1072881754548006912 https://twitter.com/AskRobinhood/status/1072937415092781056 https://twitter.com/AskRobinhood/status/1072947238450556928 https://twitter.com/AskRobinhood/status/1072960177035390977 lol this guy https://twitter.com/AntonTheDev/status/1072993619777388544 next time someone asks about robinhood post this pic:  Harry Potter on Ice fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Dec 13, 2018 |
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Dec 13, 2018 00:30
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Will we get bans for discussing GE now when it falls into penny stock territory later?
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Dec 13, 2018 00:52
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Foma posted:Will we get bans for discussing GE now when it falls into penny stock territory later? Its not looking good. They’re getting out of credit markets. Can’t issue a bond. They’re almost exclusively using bank lending so if banking in general takes a dump or interest rates go up, they’re hosed.
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Dec 13, 2018 00:58
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