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mistaya
Oct 18, 2006

Cat of Wealth and Taste

Anyone who did try to help Trump by suggesting he get out now would be immediately put on the "threat" list and sent to the proverbial guillotine.

I feel like Zinke getting the gently caress out is a net good for America but I hope it's not a monkey's paw situation. :sigh:

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Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

Rex-Goliath posted:

I wonder if Pence has sat him down and tried to explain this to him or if he's too dumb to realize Trump is too dumb to know this OR he realizes that Trump will read it as a threat and throw him out for it

Trump can’t throw out the Vice President, it’s an elected position.

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

So let's say for the sake of argument that lots of money that was donated to Trump's Inauguration Committee (or whatever the organization was called) was spent for or diverted to other things totally unrelated to the Inauguration. Paying off Trump University legal settlement. Funneled into Trump family investment accounts. Diverted to Trump cronies or their businesses (unrelated to Inauguration), etc. etc.

It's my understanding that the Inauguration committee is not part of any campaign, so FEC rules/laws do not apply.

But what rules or laws DO apply?

If he received income from the money that was not reported as such, it's tax evasion, right?

If the Inaug committee was a nonprofit and the proceeds represent profits for various beneficiaries, then there are laws about that, right?

What about straight up fraud? If people donated money under the pretext it was for Inaug but it went to other things, is that not just fraud? What if the people who donated don't care that it was misused (i.e. they knew on either an explicit or implicit level that it probably wasn't going to Inaug activities but they were essentially buying influence and favor with the new President)? Is it still fraud if the donors are not pressing charges or don't consider themselves defrauded?

If some or a lot of money came from other countries, KSA, Russia etc., what laws govern that?

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Shimrra Jamaane posted:

That’s why the absolute smartest thing Trump could do would be to resign and have Pence give him a blanket pardon. But well, he lacks even the most basic level of self awareness to consider it.

But his brand!

Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Dec 15, 2018

Mauser
Dec 16, 2003

How did I even get here, son?!

Rex-Goliath posted:

I wonder if Pence has sat him down and tried to explain this to him or if he's too dumb to realize Trump is too dumb to know this OR he realizes that Trump will read it as a threat and throw him out for it

What benefit would there be for Pence if he pardons Trump? Didn't work out for Ford and nobody likes Pence to begin with. Either way, I cannot see Pence getting reelected as president.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Mauser posted:

What benefit would there be for Pence if he pardons Trump? Didn't work out for Ford and nobody likes Pence to begin with. Either way, I cannot see Pence getting reelected as president.

Because Pence is a mindless yes man.

Travic
May 27, 2007

Getting nowhere fast
So I just saw the news about Obama care. From the sound of the thread it will likely get overturned during the appeal, but won't they just appeal it up to to Supreme Court where they will win?

Piell
Sep 3, 2006

Grey Worm's Ken doll-like groin throbbed with the anticipatory pleasure that only a slightly warm and moist piece of lemoncake could offer


Young Orc

Travic posted:

So I just saw the news about Obama care. From the sound of the thread it will likely get overturned during the appeal, but won't they just appeal it up to to Supreme Court where they will win?

The judge's argument is extremely stupid and is unlikely to win at the Supreme Court. Roberts had the chance to declare the ACA unconstitutional previously and chose not to, he's not going to change his mind based on an argument this obviously stupid.

Travic
May 27, 2007

Getting nowhere fast

Piell posted:

The judge's argument is extremely stupid and is unlikely to win at the Supreme Court. Roberts had the chance to declare the ACA unconstitutional previously and chose not to, he's not going to change his mind based on an argument this obviously stupid.

I sure hope so. I'm afraid they'll jump at the second chance to scrap it. :(

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Piell posted:

The judge's argument is extremely stupid and is unlikely to win at the Supreme Court. Roberts had the chance to declare the ACA unconstitutional previously and chose not to, he's not going to change his mind based on an argument this obviously stupid.

I fear the argument is pedantically correct on the issue of federal capacity to tax.

Roberts isn't likely going to loudly delegitimize his court even further, however. Not like this. He still has a quiet, evil agenda to subtly push in boring opinions that dramatically change precedent on issues unrelated to the case at hand.

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



Potato Salad posted:

I fear the argument is pedantically correct on the issue of federal capacity to tax.

Roberts isn't likely going to loudly delegitimize his court even further, however. Not like this. He still has a quiet, evil agenda to subtly push in boring opinions that dramatically change precedent on issues unrelated to the case at hand.

i don't think it's even pedantically correct but i was pretty amused to see a lot of shocked reactions (on eugene volokh's blog, for instance) from conservative/libertarian academics that'd intervened and filed briefs in this case

All of their takes were like, even though they oppose the mandate, none of them thought a judge would just up and declare everything unconstitutional and unseverable - it's a completely non-serious argument that basically no one but crazy red state AGs support.

While this doesn't matter much on its own, it means that the "everything about the ACA is illegal" take is unlikely to get any support from the kind of respectable conservative legal scholar types that go a long way to legitimizing novel arguments like this - and it bodes very poorly for anyone expecting to convince John Roberts to change his mind.

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Yeah remember that Kav replaced Kennedy who voted to gut PPACA, while Roberts upheld it.

Also remember that one of the best places to attack PPACA was the individual mandate, which Roberts saved but is now gone thanks to our lovely friends in congress.

Skippy McPants
Mar 19, 2009

Mauser posted:

What benefit would there be for Pence if he pardons Trump? Didn't work out for Ford and nobody likes Pence to begin with. Either way, I cannot see Pence getting reelected as president.

In addition to being a spineless yes-man, these people pardon their own. Even though he is the blackest of family sheep, Trump is still kin to the capital class, and they would rather pardon him than break ranks. No matter what comes out, even they haul him screaming into courtroom post-presidency, Trump is will not spend a day in jail.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Yeah remember that Kav replaced Kennedy who voted to gut PPACA, while Roberts upheld it.

Also remember that one of the best places to attack PPACA was the individual mandate, which Roberts saved but is now gone thanks to our lovely friends in congress.
Yeah, there's three big reasons why you probably shouldn't worry about an ACA repeal from SCOTUS.

1.) It's a bad decision from a bad judge that will almost certainly be overturned even in the relatively conservative 5th district. Even a judge whose okay with repealing ACA isn't going to be eager to hear it. Which is important because:

2.) The composition of the court hasn't changed since the last time ACA came in front of it. If everyone votes like they did last time, and Kavanaugh votes the ACA down, you still have a 5-4 decision.

3.) The immediate need for a response through a divided Congress means the easiest solution will be to put the mandate back in place. Seriously, you can't just invalidate a whole law like this, it's such a bad decision guys.

Data Graham
Dec 28, 2009

📈📊🍪😋



E: wrong thread

Epicurius
Apr 10, 2010
College Slice

Zwabu posted:

It's my understanding that the Inauguration committee is not part of any campaign, so FEC rules/laws do not apply.

But what rules or laws DO apply?


Some do, some don't. There's no limit in how much somebody can give to an inaugural committee, but foreign nationals and foreign governments aren't allowed to contribute, and the inaugural committee is required to file a form with the FEC, FEC Form 13, listing all donations accepted and refunded.

Unfortunately, I don't know what the limitations on expenditures are.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
I just adore how Trump is always so clearly miserable.

Lambert
Apr 15, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
Fallen Rib

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

I just adore how Trump is always so clearly miserable.

I head he's more isolated than ever.

Crow Jane
Oct 18, 2012

nothin' wrong with a lady drinkin' alone in her room

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

I just adore how Trump is always so clearly miserable.

The best thing about it is that even if he got everything he ever wanted, he'd still be miserable, because he sees anger and dissatisfaction as strength. Small consolation perhaps, but it warms my shriveled little heart.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Because Pence is a mindless yes man.

pence is dumb as a sack of bricks but he's not really a trump true believer. he just sees his only path to continued relevance as being seen as a trump true believer.

why pence would pardon trump revolves more around looking to solidify trump's base as his base so he can continue to be president. he would presumably not be able to keep that base after throwing trump to the wolves

Kale
May 14, 2010

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

I just adore how Trump is always so clearly miserable.

He can't even seem to remember things he's already tweeted either. This week in particular really looks like a man just flailing around trying to find any sort of footing and too recapture the narrative and it just isn't working at all. He's not used to the narrative around him not being entirely in his favor, he's used to just screaming and blithering and his whole world reworking itself around him to make things happen the way he wants.

If anything it's going to be the mainstream media doing something or running some series of stories to re-balance the narrative for his administration more than any action of his own. He's just incapable of recapturing it and right now has nobody around him to even help. Almost everybody is either quitting or about to be ushered out of congress in a couple weeks leaving very few effective advocates and surrogates for him to re-work the narrative. The way I see it these are his closest allies at the moment in order of who can maybe help re-establish his administration:

Giuliani - A complete loving idiot in all honesty that trips over himself at least as much if not more than Trump. He's his most steadfast advocate in the news lately but he does far more harm then help and basically just comes across as Trump only slightly older and somehow even more stupid. For some reason the mainstream media still takes him seriously though.
Hannity: Probably his biggest advocate overall along with Giuliani albeit far more effective due to his Fox News program and not constantly tripping over himself every single second, but also incapable of helping him reach beyond his base whatsoever
SHS - White House Spokesperson, but lost the narrative with the American people and has just been caught and called out on blatantly lying one too many times now
Miller - Somewhat competent but unwilling to step into the media limelight so not much help and all of his policy is diabolical horrible human rights violation territory stuff
Pence (???) - Vice Presidents office to work from and obviously his electoral running mate from 2016. I don't know he doesn't really do much of anything it seems other than occasionally break ties in the senate which he won't have to do anymore soon enough. It almost looks like he's staying quiet on purpose for obvious reasons.

Not exactly a team of fixers ready to salvage a presidency that is clearly circling the toilet bowl now. Kelly, Rohrbacher, Nunes, Haley etc. are all on the way out at the end of 2018 and it's kind of too little too late for him to even think of appealing beyond his base which he shows no signs of even considering as he is about to enter his 3rd year as president.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Ah yes, the imminent demise of Trump that we've been hearing about every day since he declared his candidacy.

withak
Jan 15, 2003


Fun Shoe
"Surely this will be the embarrassing public screwup that brings down President Donald Trump" says increasingly nervous man for sixth time today.

fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012
Despair posters gently caress off back to USPol

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

Kale posted:

He can't even seem to remember things he's already tweeted either. This week in particular really looks like a man just flailing around trying to find any sort of footing and too recapture the narrative and it just isn't working at all. He's not used to the narrative around him not being entirely in his favor, he's used to just screaming and blithering and his whole world reworking itself around him to make things happen the way he wants.

If anything it's going to be the mainstream media doing something or running some series of stories to re-balance the narrative for his administration more than any action of his own. He's just incapable of recapturing it and right now has nobody around him to even help. Almost everybody is either quitting or about to be ushered out of congress in a couple weeks leaving very few effective advocates and surrogates for him to re-work the narrative. The way I see it these are his closest allies at the moment in order of who can maybe help re-establish his administration:

Giuliani - A complete loving idiot in all honesty that trips over himself at least as much if not more than Trump. He's his most steadfast advocate in the news lately but he does far more harm then help and basically just comes across as Trump only slightly older and somehow even more stupid. For some reason the mainstream media still takes him seriously though.
Hannity: Probably his biggest advocate overall along with Giuliani albeit far more effective due to his Fox News program and not constantly tripping over himself every single second, but also incapable of helping him reach beyond his base whatsoever
SHS - White House Spokesperson, but lost the narrative with the American people and has just been caught and called out on blatantly lying one too many times now
Miller - Somewhat competent but unwilling to step into the media limelight so not much help and all of his policy is diabolical horrible human rights violation territory stuff
Pence (???) - Vice Presidents office to work from and obviously his electoral running mate from 2016. I don't know he doesn't really do much of anything it seems other than occasionally break ties in the senate which he won't have to do anymore soon enough. It almost looks like he's staying quiet on purpose for obvious reasons.

Not exactly a team of fixers ready to salvage a presidency that is clearly circling the toilet bowl now. Kelly, Rohrbacher, Nunes, Haley etc. are all on the way out at the end of 2018 and it's kind of too little too late for him to even think of appealing beyond his base which he shows no signs of even considering as he is about to enter his 3rd year as president.

They want rudy on the news because hes literally senile and keeps digging bigger holes for both him and the trump family. Every time he is on a news program he just basically says yes the president did it but its ok for "reasons" which are I think they are ok. Why would you want him to stop talking when he keeps shoving his head up his rear end.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

fool_of_sound posted:

Despair posters gently caress off back to USPol

How is it nothing matters-ing to acknowledge that the right wing media propaganda machine will cover for every one of Trump's fuckups and never stop? That list of the incompetent grifters posted above doesn't matter at all. Their competence isn't what is keeping Trump in office. Right wing propaganda is and Fox isn't going anywhere.

fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012

bird food bathtub posted:

How is it nothing matters-ing to acknowledge that the right wing media propaganda machine will cover for every one of Trump's fuckups and never stop? That list of the incompetent grifters posted above doesn't matter at all. Their competence isn't what is keeping Trump in office. Right wing propaganda is and Fox isn't going anywhere.

Everyone but the dimmest wits leaving over the last couple months is a really positive sign actually, even if it won't directly result in trump leaving office.

Watermelon Daiquiri
Jul 10, 2010
I TRIED TO BAIT THE TXPOL THREAD WITH THE WORLD'S WORST POSSIBLE TAKE AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS STUPID AVATAR.

mystes posted:

Ah yes, the imminent demise of Trump that we've been hearing about every day since he declared his candidacy.

lastweektonight_wegothim.gif

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Russia used every major social media platform to help elect, support Trump, report says

The new report, prepared for the Senate and a draft of which was obtained by The Post, provides the most comprehensive analysis yet of the Russian disinformation campaign around the 2016 election that leveraged nearly all social media platforms, including Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.

This coming to the Senate at their request, and being leaked to the press on Sunday to maximize cycle exposure, is significant.

Party Plane Jones
Jul 1, 2007

by Reene
Fun Shoe
A warning: post better, as the minimum probes for this thread are a bit high.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
Tom from MySpace would have never betrayed the public trust like this.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Party Plane Jones posted:

A warning: post better, as the minimum probes for this thread are a bit high.

Can you describe what the specific concern is - content, language quality, staying on topic...?

Party Plane Jones
Jul 1, 2007

by Reene
Fun Shoe

fool_of_sound posted:

Despair posters gently caress off back to USPol


withak posted:

"Surely this will be the embarrassing public screwup that brings down President Donald Trump" says increasingly nervous man for sixth time today.


mystes posted:

Ah yes, the imminent demise of Trump that we've been hearing about every day since he declared his candidacy.
the three posts above aren't particularly great

Potato Salad posted:

Can you describe what the specific concern is - content, language quality, staying on topic...?

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

bird food bathtub posted:

How is it nothing matters-ing to acknowledge that the right wing media propaganda machine will cover for every one of Trump's fuckups and never stop? That list of the incompetent grifters posted above doesn't matter at all. Their competence isn't what is keeping Trump in office. Right wing propaganda is and Fox isn't going anywhere.

This is the News thread; so post news, talk about specific news stories, or gently caress off back to USPOL.

twice burned ice
Dec 29, 2008

My stove defies the laws of physics!
‘Crisis level’: Republican women sound warning after election losses



There's a lot to :trumppop: at in this one.


quote:

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is poised to reclaim the speaker’s gavel as 36 women join her caucus. But House Republicans, who have already elected men to their top two posts, will see their group of women reduced by almost half to just 13, with West Virginia’s Carol Miller the lone GOP woman in the freshman class.

...

Republican leaders often hedge on whether recruiting female candidates should be a top priority, saying they want who­ever is most qualified. The need for more female lawmakers to better reflect the country — or at least to win votes from more women — has not been a given for all party members.

According to exit polls, the gender gap was 12 percentage points in the midterm elections as female voters favored Democrats over Republicans. The last time women voted for Democrats by anywhere near that margin was 1982, when the gap was 17 points.


“This is something we’ve got to come to grips with,” former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said of the 2018 gender gap.

“If you look at the post-election analysis and polling, you’d have to be pretty blind not to see the problem,” Cole said. “We’re maximizing rural voters, we’re maximizing white male voters, particularly white males without a college education. Those are all great to have, but they’re not enough to be a majority in the House.”

...

In Kansas last week, state Sen. Barbara Bollier left the GOP after more than four decades, citing Trump’s vulgar comments about women and issues such as the Medicaid expansion and reproductive health.

Bollier said she could no longer “stand up and say, ‘It’s fine to blindly support Trump Republicanism.’ ”

After changing parties, “now I can sleep better — it was a huge moral thing,” she said.

...

Fox News host Martha MacCallum asked Wagner whether GOP men “get it” when it comes to the party’s problems with women.

“They need to get it, or we won’t have the majority again,” Wagner said.

...

“We don’t see women in leadership, which is something that needs to happen if people are going to believe you’re serious,” said Christine Todd Whitman, the Republican former governor of New Jersey.

Whitman predicted the GOP will “largely become irrelevant” if it doesn’t start appealing to more women. The party is “not only ignoring” women, she said — “they’re aggressively looking the other way.”

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

Republicans are the party of MRA identarians, "equality of opportunity" mantras even in the absence of evidence that such equality exists, and focused attacks on women's healthcare...

Yeah, they need to come to grips with something, and I think it's that "other people exist and you aren't special".

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



First charges (for people other than Flynn, who likely was only not charged due to cooperation) in the Gulen-extradition conspiracy

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1074688284415193088

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Chilichimp posted:

Republicans are the party of MRA identarians, "equality of opportunity" mantras even in the absence of evidence that such equality exists, and focused attacks on women's healthcare...

Yeah, they need to come to grips with something, and I think it's that "other people exist and you aren't special".

They get around this part with the implicit assumption that white and male means more qualified.

mystes
May 31, 2006

I had a right wing coworker who repeatedly insisted liberals were sexist for thinking it was time for a female president because it was sexist to care about the gender of the president. :smug:

I don't see Republicans addressing this issue in the near future.

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Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Chilichimp posted:

Republicans are the party of MRA identarians, "equality of opportunity" mantras even in the absence of evidence that such equality exists, and focused attacks on women's healthcare...

Yeah, they need to come to grips with something, and I think it's that "other people exist and you aren't special".

The extent that modern conservative ideology is anti-women both abstractly and concretely is so extreme that it's getting into isolating feed back loops for right wing young men. That MRA culture has largely fused with young conservatives, insofar as they exist, should terrify the gently caress out of anyone who actually identifies as a conservative and has any hope for the future of conservative politics. Unlike a lot of other traditionally distasteful ideologies, there's no way to really repackage MRA/incel poo poo into a form that isn't egregiously offensive and demeaning. And if your starting position is that any woman who isn't a virgin by 25 is a whore, there's not really a lot of room for compromise

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