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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Leaving Afghanistan is a good idea in theory and is ultimately necessary, but since Trump is at the helm for it, there's going to be a maximum amount of unnecessary death and suffering as a result. How are you not able to understand that? Well, here's 16 kids who would be alive if we had pulled out a month ago? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/afghanistan-civilians-killed-us-air-strike-helmand-province Or if we had pulled out last year? 39% YOY rise in civilians killed by US forces? https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/10/asia/afghanistan-airstrikes-civilian-deaths-un-report-intl/index.html How about these kids who would be alive if Obama pulled out of the war in 2009? In March 2011, Karzai rejected apologies from President Obama and Gen. David Petraeus for U.S. helicopter gunners killing 9 Afghan boys ages 7–13 who were collecting firewood. "The apology is not enough," Karzai said. "Civilian casualties produced by the military operations of coalition forces are the cause of tension in relations between Afghanistan and the United States of America. The people of Afghanistan are fed up from these brutal incidents and apologies and condemnation cannot cure their pain." In response to the deaths of the boys, Petraeus ordered all field commanders and helicopter crews to again study their rules of engagement.[91][92] One source claims more than 200 civilians killed in military operations and insurgent attacks in "recent weeks".[93] Buddy I hate Trump. But if he's going to get the US out of Afghanistan it's good. The idea that you need to wait for a good time to leave is ridiculous, there is no good time, there is no good news on the horizon, and the US is not there with good intentions to rebuild or fix things in the first place. They haven't built any infrastructure like roads or hospitals because they don't want to and they would rather bomb weddings.
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Dec 21, 2018 02:11
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Leaving Afghanistan is a good idea in theory and is ultimately necessary, but since Trump is at the helm for it, there's going to be a maximum amount of unnecessary death and suffering as a result. How are you not able to understand that? That’s been the argument for staying, bad things will happen if we leave. If you want to leave, you accept the bad things. It’s not hard to understand.
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Dec 21, 2018 02:19
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sleep with the vicious posted:Buddy I hate Trump. But if he's going to get the US out of Afghanistan it's good. The idea that you need to wait for a good time to leave is ridiculous, there is no good time, there is no good news on the horizon, and the US is not there with good intentions to rebuild or fix things in the first place. They haven't built any infrastructure like roads or hospitals because they don't want to and they would rather bomb weddings. It's not about a good time, it's about an orderly exit. But yeah, just as he's the worst president to take us out of the war (though perhaps one most capable of doing so in a Nixon goes to China sense), he was also the president worst suited to overseeing a continuing war since he loosened rules of engagement and increased the risk to civilians in both Afghanistan and Syria. In short, having a lovely president has bad consequences.
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Dec 21, 2018 02:22
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Coldwar timewarp posted:That’s been the argument for staying, bad things will happen if we leave. If you want to leave, you accept the bad things. It’s not hard to understand. I'm not arguing we should stay. I'm arguing that Trump will gently caress up our exit in a way that will make things even worse. It's not hard to understand.
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Dec 21, 2018 02:28
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You could make the same argument about staying in that Trump fucks that up too by being less concerned about civilian casualties etc, he's gonna be a fuckup either way better to be a fuckup who's leaving the country.
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Dec 21, 2018 02:34
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all of this "trump is going to gently caress it up" talk is likely correct, but it needs to be compared to the existing baseline of trump, mattis, et al. loving up US involvement in syria and afghanistan. it's not going to be an orderly exit, but neither was it an orderly occupation (let alone a just or bloodless one).
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Dec 21, 2018 02:44
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the latest being "we're just going to draw down to half presence" is probably the Maximum Blood option not least because it means the next item on the menu is Surge 3, This Time Will Be Different
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Dec 21, 2018 02:49
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yeah i guess i didn't account for the "trump changes his mind half-way" worst of both world option
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Dec 21, 2018 03:08
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Sinteres posted:Admitting we've lost in Afghanistan is something we need to do at some point, but turning on a dime and doing so without any kind of plan would be almost as stupid as doing so in Syria. Ending wars is good, but ending wars because an impulsive madman is bored or irritated by recent news isn't the way to do it. Agreed. Syria in particular is a super busy place. Withdrawing rapidly and unexpectedly could produce a power vacuum that will be filled by... something, that could re-ignite the conflict once again.
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Dec 21, 2018 03:17
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you all are weirdly optimistic about the US's effect as a stabilizing force in the middle east, especially given the past five-ish decades or so
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Dec 21, 2018 03:29
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Cease to Hope posted:you all are weirdly optimistic about the US's effect as a stabilizing force in the middle east, especially given the past five-ish decades or so I'm under no illusions about what will happen politically once the US withdraws. I'm only concerned with what happens to the people in those regions who worked with us. I grew up in San Diego and went to school with kids whose parents had fled South Vietnam in 1975. Do you think we're going to allow the translators and others who supported our efforts in Syria and Afghanistan into this country as refugees like we did those Vietnamese refugees? gently caress no, we're going to leave them to be killed because they're Muslims. It'll be one final unpardonable and unnecessary crime.
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Dec 21, 2018 03:41
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Well Trump publicly admitting that Iran and Russia have done the heavy lifting against ISIS is kind of a weird flex
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Dec 21, 2018 03:45
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Cease to Hope posted:you all are weirdly optimistic about the US's effect as a stabilizing force in the middle east, especially given the past five-ish decades or so Right now, Turkey is not ethnic cleansing the Kurds that US troops are serving as human shields for, but is ethnic cleansing the Kurds that US troops are NOT serving as human shields for. US troops are now set to stop serving as human shields. It doesn't take optimism, in THIS case you just have to look at what is happening right now.
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Dec 21, 2018 03:48
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Throatwarbler posted:Well Trump publicly admitting that Iran and Russia have done the heavy lifting against ISIS is kind of a weird flex It's also a lie. Russia spent most of their time bombing whoever Assad told them to, which was almost always a shadowy group called People Who Are Not ISIS.
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Dec 21, 2018 03:49
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Sinteres posted:Bomb a few weddings and you never hear the end of it. 
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Dec 21, 2018 03:49
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https://twitter.com/P_rojava/status/1075781958905384960?s=19 Barzani's KRG militias are now invading Syria apparently.
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Dec 21, 2018 03:50
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https://twitter.com/RudawEnglish/status/1075433305548439552 https://twitter.com/metesohtaoglu/status/1075452114997035008 Looks like I might have been right and that Trump has actually negotiated a comprehensive good faith drawdown plan with Iran and Turkey.
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Dec 21, 2018 03:59
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Throatwarbler posted:Looks like I might have been right and that Trump has actually negotiated a comprehensive good faith drawdown plan with Iran and Turkey. This is adorable.
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Dec 21, 2018 04:00
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Throatwarbler posted:https://twitter.com/RudawEnglish/status/1075433305548439552 This breaks my sarcasm detector, but I will eat my hat if Trump negotiated anything with Iran.
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Dec 21, 2018 04:03
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Granted, I don't think the timing of the withdrawal in Afganistan would change the major issue at hand: at best we were losing slowly. The Afganistan War was never winnable, but we had the resources to drag it out over 2 decades. The Kurds getting screwed isn't a good thing. That said, we weren't there to support them but simply for area denial and to put pressure on Iranian supply lines. I assume part of the deal is that Iran steps back which means the Kurds become expendable. As for will lots of people get killed, yes, almost certainly.
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Dec 21, 2018 04:05
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Count Roland posted:This breaks my sarcasm detector, but I will eat my hat if Trump negotiated anything with Iran. negotiated nothing, the glorious revolutionary republic is ten steps ahead of the imperialist pig
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Dec 21, 2018 04:06
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reignonyourparade posted:Right now, Turkey is not ethnic cleansing the Kurds that US troops are serving as human shields for, but is ethnic cleansing the Kurds that US troops are NOT serving as human shields for. US troops are now set to stop serving as human shields. Sorry friend, but we have to let the Kurds die and see the end of Syria's least oppressive faction in order to own the imperialists.
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Dec 21, 2018 04:08
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OctaMurk posted:Sorry friend, but we have to let the Kurds die and see the end of Syria's least oppressive faction in order to own the imperialists. what was the endgame you saw for them were we going to stay in kurdistan until turkey didn't want it anymore
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Dec 21, 2018 04:33
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Only deal Trump negotiated is for some primo brand licencing action in Moscow.
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Dec 21, 2018 04:53
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Seems like a good deal to me if true. Israel would be making a gigantic stinky poo poo over it if that wasn’t part of the deal.
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Dec 21, 2018 04:58
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Coldwar timewarp posted:Seems like a good deal to me if true. Israel would be making a gigantic stinky poo poo over it if that wasn’t part of the deal. The Israelis are not happy but Netanyahu is fused at the hip with the Trump administration at this point so they're being quiet about it.
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Dec 21, 2018 05:04
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:what was the endgame you saw for them Why not?
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Dec 21, 2018 05:05
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Coldwar timewarp posted:Seems like a good deal to me if true. Israel would be making a gigantic stinky poo poo over it if that wasn’t part of the deal. I mean, depends on whether you think Netanyahu is going to benefit from the kind of war where soldiers are likely to die. It didn't work well for Olmert, Livni, and Peretz. Lots of negative coverage, although a high-ranking Russian delegation came over to ease tensions over Hezbollah's tunnels, so who knows. Either way, that only makes it at best a not entirely terrible situation for Israel. Is this good for Syrians, Kurds, or the long-term fight against ISIS?
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Dec 21, 2018 05:12
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The northern alliance wil be back soon dony worry folks I really hope the kurds strike fast against the turkish menace
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Dec 21, 2018 05:14
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sleep with the vicious posted:Buddy I hate Trump. But if he's going to get the US out of Afghanistan it's good. The idea that you need to wait for a good time to leave is ridiculous, there is no good time, there is no good news on the horizon, and the US is not there with good intentions to rebuild or fix things in the first place. They haven't built any infrastructure like roads or hospitals because they don't want to and they would rather bomb weddings. That's flat out wrong. The US has thrown probably hundreds of billions of dollars at Afghanistan since the war began. The Army had to create entire new MOS's to deal with the influx of cash they were throwing at civil projects, and on top of that, they were throwing pallet-fulls of cash at local leaders for their own projects (just please tell everyone how nice we are). Schools, roads, and all sorts of poo poo. But the Taliban just tried, often successfully, to blow it up for the same reason that they shot Malala in the head. It didn't make up for the shortcomings of the Afghan government that the US modeled, or the human rights abuses the military mostly covered up, or for private dipshit throwing a gatorade bottle full of piss at little kids who as luck would have it turned out to be related to the mayor, but the hearts and minds campaign was absolutely a thing. There isn't any good news on the horizon, but there also isn't any potentially horrifying news either. When/if the US withdrawals, there absolutely could be. News like Kandahar and Kabul no longer just getting the odd rocket attack and suicide bombing, but full on invasions, and people who are educated, modern, and progressive, who need to be defining Afghanistan's political scene moving forward, stand to be the biggest victims. We could see some of the bloodiest years of that Afghan war following a US withdrawal. I don't think the Taliban will accept any deal that limits the amount of gains they could make against the government and its supporters they absolutely revile, so if there's military success right there for the taking, they're gonna go for it. It's a horrible situation, and there isn't any quick solution that can help Afghanistan move forward. There is certainly one quick one that could move it backwards in a big way however. You could argue that it's not our problem, but by that standard, neither are any Mexicans seeking asylum, refugees from around the world, or anyone who needs humanitarian assistance. I don't agree with that assessment. I'm not sure what to promote when it comes to US policy in Afghanistan, other than obviously, the number of hospitals and indiscriminate bombings in the country needs to be 0. Beyond that, it is a total clusterfuck. Re: Syria, I don't think we're going to see ISIS come to new heights as a result of this. There is likely to be a wave from their fighters who have been hunkered down and biding their time, but their rise to power in 2014 was rooted in a very unique set of circumstances. What I expect instead is Assad-aligned forces and Turkish-backed forces to divy up Rojava amongst themselves. Rouhani is in Ankara now, and I imagine that's the major topic of discussion. Given that the Turkish-backed forces are totally in Turkey's pocket, and the YPG's leverage on the Assad regime will be gone, it's gonna fall onto the shoulders of the YPG to defend Rojava on their own against a two front attack. There will likely be a wave of Kurdish refugees fleeing into Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey since that is unlikely to end well. Hopefully that will lead into a period of tense stability, where Assad continues to make the pragmatic decision not to spend the mass amounts of blood that will be required to push towards the northern border through Idlib for months to come. As long as that is the case, I don't think the conditions will exist for ISIS to surge back into prominence, because the stalemate should at least provide a veneer of safety. ISIS does best in chaotic vacuums of death, suffering, and anger. That being said, when it comes to the Assad regime, this is bad, bad, bad. I guess we'll cross that river when we get there, but pulling out does send a message that the US isn't watching what's going on there anymore. We could see another rise in chemical weapons use as a result, and perhaps a significant bombing campaign on residential neighborhoods in Idlib province that more closely resemble the Damascus suburbs and Aleppo at their highs, and get the death toll rising again. While the consequences of withdrawal here are potentially not as severe as in Afghanistan, they're also so easily avoidable. Like literally just walking around in uniform in Rojava has been enough to stave off a humanitarian disaster. I'm definitely not sad to see an end to air strikes, since there has been an immediate and clear relaxation in targeting since Trump came into office, and ISIS is a husk of its former self so there's not as pressing a need for them. But for gods sake just leave a few mother fuckers around to be seen and uphold the stalemate. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 07:25 on Dec 21, 2018 |
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Dec 21, 2018 07:16
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reignonyourparade posted:Why not? because the victory condition "stick around until the people who live there get bored and go home" has proven remarkably unattainable
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Dec 21, 2018 07:20
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Volkerball posted:That's flat out wrong. The US has thrown probably hundreds of billions of dollars at Afghanistan since the war began. The Army had to create entire new MOS's to deal with the influx of cash they were throwing at civil projects, and on top of that, they were throwing pallet-fulls of cash at local leaders for their own projects (just please tell everyone how nice we are). Schools, roads, and all sorts of poo poo. But the Taliban just tried, often successfully, to blow it up for the same reason that they shot Malala in the head. It didn't make up for the shortcomings of the Afghan government that the US modeled, or the human rights abuses the military mostly covered up, or for private dipshit throwing a gatorade bottle full of piss at little kids who as luck would have it turned out to be related to the mayor, but the hearts and minds campaign was absolutely a thing. Afghanistan will fall. This is tragic and it pains me to see this so much. But we are pulling back from the ME. Which is really the part of this that gets me in shock. We literally had a ww1 going down between iraq and iran then america kind of stayed for the longhaul. Now were isolating again. Even with america here we were gradually moving toward a war between the regional powers of the ME. We possibly see nuclear weapons used in the ME if there is a real war
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Dec 21, 2018 07:38
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LeoMarr posted:You will get hung for claiming to know an isis member. Iraq is mass imprisoning people who arent even related to isis. Yeah, exactly. It's not quite as bad as it was in the early 2010's, when there were many publicized accounts of people being burned alive simply for having a traditionally Sunni name like Omar, and rape and murder along sectarian lines by sectarian militias supported by Iran and the Iraqi state were more commonplace, which may stave off another rise. But Iraq for its part seems to be trying a little harder than I would like to recreate that environment. If we do see another surge from ISIS I bet Iraq or Afghanistan will be the epicenter, not Syria.
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Dec 21, 2018 07:52
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Volkerball posted:Yeah, exactly. It's not quite as bad as it was in the early 2010's, when there were many publicized accounts of people being burned alive simply for having a traditionally Sunni name like Omar, and rape and murder along sectarian lines by sectarian militias supported by Iran and the Iraqi state were more commonplace, which may stave off another rise. But Iraq for its part seems to be trying a little harder than I would like to recreate that environment. If we do see another surge from ISIS I bet Iraq or Afghanistan will be the epicenter, not Syria. Russia is funding and training the taliban isis is poo poo in afghanistan, and the taliban wouldnt allow an isis resuegence. Isis needs the internet to be effective. The taliban are hated by Iran for the journalists, even today. It is so doubtful that isis can flourish in any regard while between so many strong enemies. Africa makes more sense.
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Dec 21, 2018 08:05
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LeoMarr posted:Russia is funding and training the taliban isis is poo poo in afghanistan, and the taliban wouldnt allow an isis resuegence. Isis needs the internet to be effective. They need the internet to be effective when it comes to Western Muslims, but that's hardly the key to their successes. And Iran is arming the Taliban, so not so much. Although when they aren't fighting the US anymore, that may degrade a bit. ISIS was born in an era of the Iraq War in which the coalition forces were at their most oppressive. While they were subject to the full force of the US military. Feeding off of the resentment towards brutality at the highest levels is central to what they are. That said, I don't think they can bounce out the Taliban either, just that it's more likely to see a surge in Afghanistan than it is in Idlib, where the most oppressive force on the streets influencing day to day life are already jihadists. ISIS isn't gonna be the beneficiary of any dissatisfaction there.
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Dec 21, 2018 08:15
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Volkerball posted:Yeah, exactly. It's not quite as bad as it was in the early 2010's, when there were many publicized accounts of people being burned alive simply for having a traditionally Sunni name like Omar, and rape and murder along sectarian lines by sectarian militias supported by Iran and the Iraqi state were more commonplace, which may stave off another rise. But Iraq for its part seems to be trying a little harder than I would like to recreate that environment. If we do see another surge from ISIS I bet Iraq or Afghanistan will be the epicenter, not Syria. There will be a Sunni Insurgency in Iraq again but not while Trump is in office. And probably won't be until the next generation comes of age
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Dec 21, 2018 08:18
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Volkerball posted:That's flat out wrong. The US has thrown probably hundreds of billions of dollars at Afghanistan since the war began. The Army had to create entire new MOS's to deal with the influx of cash they were throwing at civil projects, and on top of that, they were throwing pallet-fulls of cash at local leaders for their own projects (just please tell everyone how nice we are). Schools, roads, and all sorts of poo poo. But the Taliban just tried, often successfully, to blow it up for the same reason that they shot Malala in the head. It didn't make up for the shortcomings of the Afghan government that the US modeled, or the human rights abuses the military mostly covered up, or for private dipshit throwing a gatorade bottle full of piss at little kids who as luck would have it turned out to be related to the mayor, but the hearts and minds campaign was absolutely a thing. So do you believe that we should just occupy Afghanistan forever? Mexicans seeking asylum don't necessitate death of American soliders or Mexican civilians so that's not really an apt comparison. MaxxBot fucked around with this message at 08:33 on Dec 21, 2018 |
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Dec 21, 2018 08:24
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MaxxBot posted:So do you believe that we should just occupy Afghanistan forever? Mexicans seeking asylum don't necessitate death of American soliders or Mexican civilians so that's not really an apt comparison. I see a lot of parallels to South Vietnam. Or the taking of Aleppo. These unimaginable horrors become imaginable. People move on, live their lives. Some don’t. At the end of the day someone should say stop throwing good money after bad. The generals in charge talk about muddling through. It’s insane. Why not reach an accord with Assad with relation to Iranian troops. Why not reach an accord with the Taliban regarding al qaeda. It means accepting the US isn’t all powerful and can lose. That was learned in Korea and Vietnam, and is helpful to learn in the post Cold War world as well. It also means letting go of this absurd idea that the US stands for freedom and democracy, when the company it keeps screams otherwise. Those resources are probably better spent countering actual threats than trying to civilize the afghans. The soviets tried the hard way, the US, the soft. Maybe it’s better if the US washed their hands of it like the Russians were forced to.
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Dec 21, 2018 09:10
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Coldwar timewarp posted:Those resources are probably better spent countering actual threats than trying to civilize the afghans. This is a loving lovely thing to say.
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Dec 21, 2018 09:16
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enraged_camel posted:This is a loving lovely thing to say. What the gently caress is trying to westernize them? It wasn’t meant as a jab against them, but against the mission. It’s trying to change the culture of the rural regions with western values. The soviets tried it and it worked in the cities somewhat, not in the rural regions. Don’t be a language policeman, read. They aren’t immune to democracy, but a fully democratic Afghanistan wouldn’t be that different from a taliban one. Coldwar timewarp fucked around with this message at 09:31 on Dec 21, 2018 |
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Dec 21, 2018 09:29
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