|
cant cook creole bream posted:Sorry to quote myself here, but I remembered who it was now. It was Samantha Bee. It was specifically about the Kurds in northern Iraq, but it's really worth a watch. this is making me question my support of kurdistan. why does that guy love george bush? he could've given them a legit separate country and didn't. Groovelord Neato fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Dec 24, 2018 |
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:07
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 04:15 |
|
|
So this morning DOW futures were looking like they were bouncing back 100 points, now we are looking at a drop of 200 points Merry christmas
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:10
|
|
|
Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:So this morning DOW futures were looking like they were bouncing back 100 points, now we are looking at a drop of 200 points Happy Xmas (DOW is Over)
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:17
|
|
|
Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:So this morning DOW futures were looking like they were bouncing back 100 points, now we are looking at a drop of 200 points
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:22
|
|
|
Inferior Third Season posted:Even after a precipitous drop over a short period, a 200 point change in either direction is noise that doesn't mean anything and should be ignored. That's a -200 opening, right? Plenty of time for it to move even further during the trading day.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:26
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1077159247060914177
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:46
|
|
|
Inferior Third Season posted:Even after a precipitous drop over a short period, a 200 point change in either direction is noise that doesn't mean anything and should be ignored. thanks for the analysis professor!
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:46
|
|
|
Lmao That's like comparing your campaign to the Battle of Little Bighorn; holy poo poo are they dumb.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:51
|
|
|
ascii genitals posted:thanks for the analysis professor!
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:51
|
|
|
Milo making an unironic “AND THEN EVERYONE CLAPPED” post 
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:55
|
|
|
cheetah7071 posted:Is there any clear evidence that "electability" has ever mattered? "Electability" is just bullshit that people with unpopular platforms use to leverage institutional support into winning primary elections then hoping the general is easy enough they can win without trying. It's never actually mattered; people said the same thing about how Kerry was the only guy that could beat Bush and similarly we all remember Clinton. When someone tells you a candidate is electable, it's because they know the platform is bad and that's the only thing that they can point to without any clear contradictions; you can't prove Beta can't beat Trump until he wins or loses but you sure as hell can show his voting record and oil industry donations. It's also coming from the wing of the Democratic party that has picked one winner in the last two decades with regards to Presidential elections (and Obama the candidate was way to the left of Obama the president) so what they consider "electable" is incredibly suspect. All you need to know about Beto is that Neera Tanden and Sally Albright are going in HARD on him and very strongly making arguments revolving around no one mentioning anything the dude actually believes in. The point is he's supposed to be seen as a winner you can just project whatever you believe onto him. Eggplant Squire fucked around with this message at 15:02 on Dec 24, 2018 |
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:56
|
|
|
DOW futures are less than meaningless. They’ll be a billion points down and the DOW will open +5. It’s important to keep in mind that a lot of people on SA were scarred by the Great Recession. Most recessions just involve a few extra points on the unemployment rate, maybe a few less points on GDP, and last less than a year. We stood on the precipice of Great Depression 2.0 and only a lot of aggressive Fed moves saved us and the rest of the world from that fate. The next recession will be a political black eye, not a gasping gut wound. I was unemployed/underemployed for 3 loving years this last recession. The last thing I want is another bout of that.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 14:57
|
|
|
eyebeem posted:The company is matching the % of your salary that you contributed. Fluctuations in the market have literally zero bearing on what the company plops into your 401k. Just to follow up on this it is quite possible that the "we'll invest the match ourselves and pocket the returns!" which I saw in a few business articles talking up how great the practice was going to be for businesses was just some MBA dream that had yet to crash into the cold reality of accounting rules. I defer to your experience.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:03
|
|
|
Killer-of-Lawyers posted:In the long run we're all dead. Basically this. Saying “if we’re going to suffer, better to suffer in a way that’s politically advantageous” honestly rings close to some Ebenezer Scrooge lines. If we’re to die, we’d better do it then, and decrease the surplus population! It may not be what you mean, but it’s sure as heck what you sound like. I don’t think any of us here are that consciously ghoulish, but a lack of mindfulness can happen to anyone.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:04
|
|
|
Maybe, but it's true that a Trump second term or Competent Fascist in 2024 with Republican majorities means game over and when (not if) the economy collapses will be a huge factor.Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/leahmcelrath/status/1077112674335551488 If you vote for Republicans, this is what you want. I knew this and everyone in this thread knows it too. No debate and no compromise on this. Ague Proof fucked around with this message at 15:09 on Dec 24, 2018 |
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:05
|
|
|
https://youtu.be/0k5aVLi_yhM
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:06
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/OsitaNwanevu/status/1077202112122101761
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:09
|
|
|
Republicans posted:The left is worried Beto will be groomed for a 2020 run as a milquetoast center-left Obama-like figure who won't push for policy they want like single payer healthcare, $15 minimum wage and so on. i think he kinda has to push for single payer, its kinda of litmus test now plus that and 15 min and other progressive ideals are popular. well thats all these fuckers care about. big dumb last stands.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:10
|
|
|
Your Boy Fancy posted:People who root for the economy to tank really aren’t thinking of what it does to others. When the economy crashed ten years ago, all the work in my field dried up and never fully grew back. I spent those years utterly destitute, nearly ended up homeless, and only managed to dig out of the debt I accrued a couple of years back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k5aVLi_yhM
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:13
|
|
|
The Phantom Ghost posted:Happy Xmas (DOW is Over) Even though we cant afford The DOW is over, Even though we cant afford The DOW is over, I don't want to see you go, The DOW is over Even though we cant afford The DOW is over.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:16
|
|
|
the economy tanking only hurts the people that did the least to cause it.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:19
|
|
|
Krispy Wafer posted:DOW futures are less than meaningless. They’ll be a billion points down and the DOW will open +5. In a normal political environment this would be the typical end of a cycle that lasted 9 freaking years and left us with a negligible unemployment rate. This was widely expected which means it would have been short and mild. But the markets have spent the last two years going parabolic and insanely underpricing political risk. Now that they've begun to reset that parabola and the panic is in, anything crazy that Trump does will sink them further and there are a range of things he could do that might result in a depression. Two of them (firing the Fed chair and/or more tariffs) are things he's going to have to be talked out of for two more years at a minimum.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:20
|
|
|
Adar posted:But the markets have spent the last two years going parabolic and insanely underpricing political risk. Now that they've begun to reset that parabola and the panic is in, anything crazy that Trump does will sink them further and there are a range of things he could do that might result in a depression. Two of them (firing the Fed chair and/or more tariffs) are things he's going to have to be talked out of for two more years at a minimum. This is why my girlfriend believes this is Trump’s last year in office; he’ll get frustrated by the increasing media pressure from his dumb-poo poo moves and the markets will continue to ricochet around, causing him to make further destabilizing moves. Eventually the big money donors won’t be able to control for Trump’s bizarre behavior killing their stock portfolios, and once the money loss exceeds the benefits brought on by the tax cuts, they’ll call their bought-off Senate dogs to pressure him into resigning or 25th him. Trump will be offered a get-out-of-jail-free card via a Pence presidency and pardon, cementing Pence as Ford 2.0 and dooming him to an ultimately lame rubber-stamp presidency until 2020. Edit: unless Pence is dirty as hell and is Spiro Agnew 2.0, then all hail President Pelosi. 
funeral home DJ fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Dec 24, 2018 |
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:29
|
|
|
It also can't be stated enough that Wall Street has basically decoupled stocks from actual reality. With stock buybacks as a main focus which are to drive stock prices up regardless of performance which accelerated heavily in the last two years as a major reason. But the stock market really has no actual basis with company performance anymore compared to 30 years ago. Someone a few years ago here brought this same argument up, mainly because the stock market isn't indicating actual health if a company or a sector of the economy anymore, now it's just these guys made absurd year over year profits do they must be good irregardless of the fact that these moves here are why and the company just buttered itself for next year. Hell one example is how and why Facebook is worth so much or Tesla has a higher market value then any other automaker? It's not based on reality but pure conjecture and stupidity anymore.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:36
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:well thats all these fuckers care about. big dumb last stands. Makes me think of a line out of Dan Carlin's series on ww1. The last charge of the light brigade is viewed as this same sort of "doomed last stand/attack/defiance", but when you see it like 10 times in a row into machine gun fire it loses the luster really fast. If there were some sort of consequences for pulling crap like this that actually effected (or is affected, I always gently caress those two up) republican politicians you might see a change. Battle of little bighorn is a good one too, haha. I live in Montana, and jesus christ was Custer a dumb poo poo-head. If anyone wonders why I'm worried about republicans in charge it definitely involves dragging the rest of us in a situation that fucks the rest of us too.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:37
|
|
|
No one is going to fall on the sword for Trump if he's no longer in power. He's only useful and popular if he's the king and if he's just some deposed loser destroying your own chances by pardoning the biggest elected criminal in our lifetimes seems like a bad move. More likely he's just going to sit there making dumber flailing actions since he knows, like any corrupt dictator, he lifespan is measured by his foothold in power. No Republican is ever going to actually oppose him and the rich backers are tools with no real ability to force the party anymore now that the lunatics are in charge. No one gives a poo poo about sensible conservative economics, certainly not when they are blowing up the economy with lovely bills (the tax bills from congress can't be blamed on Trump when they were writing the fixes in the margins and not letting anyone vet them) and saying we need $5 billion for a dumbass wall.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:37
|
|
|
The Phantom Ghost posted:Happy Xmas (DOW is Over) 
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:39
|
|
|
Ripoff posted:Edit: unless Pence is dirty as hell and is Spiro Agnew 2.0, then all hail President Pelosi. I don't exactly have a lot of love for Pelosi, but 🤞😬🤞
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:42
|
|
|
Republicans would let the country literally burn to the ground before they removed both Trump and Pence. Like let them govern from jail or something.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:44
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:i think he kinda has to push for single payer, its kinda of litmus test now plus that and 15 min and other progressive ideals are popular. Beto campaign in Texas was interesting because he tried to split the difference between the progressives and the liberals. If he went hard left he would probably have a shot but currently I think he'll blow it.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:48
|
|
|
Beto is basically a white Obama, charismatic speaker, talks a good game, but will govern like a milquetoast moderate.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:49
|
|
|
Mendrian posted:'The economy' - in the sense of a snapshot of joblessness, income-to-expense ratios and nebulous ratings like quality of life - is only 'cyclical' in the sense that a day worse than yesterday is inevitable given enough time. This... isn't even remotely true. The 'economy' in the exact sense that you're describing is absolutely cyclical, and expansionary periods last an average of about 40 months in the US. We happen to be in a very long one right now. The fact that the 2008 recession was especially bad doesn't make it part of some very long cycle unless you buy into certain theories about larger meta cycles. It was another turn in the exact same cycle of expansions and contractions that the US economy has always experienced, except that it was a particular long and deep contraction. And yeah, recessions always happen for reasons. The problem is that the structure of the US economy all but guarantees that the risk factors that lead to recessions will build over time.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:50
|
|
|
Adar posted:In a normal political environment this would be the typical end of a cycle that lasted 9 freaking years and left us with a negligible unemployment rate. This was widely expected which means it would have been short and mild. Firing the Fed chair would be bad and it could spook markets in ways we can’t even comprehend. Other countries invest in us because they’re reasonably sure we’re not going to do something economically stupid. If they feel otherwise they’ll put all their money in Euros and just hope Greece or Italy doesn’t crash. But we don’t even know if Trump can fire the Fed chairman. If he tries, Republicans might finally get a clue and start curtailing Presidential power. I’m still reasonably sure that if Trump makes it all four years, the weakened Presidency he leaves behind will have less control over trade and war powers. Which would be a good thing.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:52
|
|
|
Krispy Wafer posted:Firing the Fed chair would be bad and it could spook markets in ways we can’t even comprehend. Other countries invest in us because they’re reasonably sure we’re not going to do something economically stupid. If they feel otherwise they’ll put all their money in Euros and just hope Greece or Italy doesn’t crash. I’m almost certain that I heard on the news that officials confirmed that the chair couldn’t be fired by the president.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:56
|
|
|
Dr. VooDoo posted:Milo making an unironic “AND THEN EVERYONE CLAPPED” post The only thing it's missing is "and that man's name was Albert Einstein."
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 15:57
|
|
|
Solkanar512 posted:I’m almost certain that I heard on the news that officials confirmed that the chair couldn’t be fired by the president. He can be fired "for cause". The question then becomes what is "for cause" for a Fed chair? I'm not sure what the standards are there. Also Trump has shown he's perfectly willing to make up a reason to fire someone he doesn't like.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 16:01
|
|
|
Shifty Pony posted:He can be fired "for cause". The question then becomes what is "for cause" for a Fed chair? I'm not sure what the standards are there. And we've also learned that there is no mechanism to actually prevent it, other than hoping the president isn't a power grabbing toddler.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 16:03
|
|
|
Solkanar512 posted:I’m almost certain that I heard on the news that officials confirmed that the chair couldn’t be fired by the president. Sadly, the particular chain of events you're talking about was drastically more stupid than this. Mnuchin made these tweets: https://twitter.com/stevenmnuchin1/status/1076614027093061632 https://twitter.com/stevenmnuchin1/status/1076614123155218433 Mulvaney then referenced these tweets in an interview, attributing them directly to Trump instead of Mnuchin. The problem, obviously, is that the quote in Mnuchin's tweets is pretty obviously stdh.txt since it sounds nothing at all like Trump. Mulvaney made no indication at all that he actually spoke to Trump about this and it's really likely that he didn't since he was only referring to Mnuchin's really weird tweet. Anyway, Trump can't fire Powell except for pretty exceptional reasons. Whether or not he'll try is anyone's guess.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 16:04
|
|
|
Shifty Pony posted:He can be fired "for cause". The question then becomes what is "for cause" for a Fed chair? I'm not sure what the standards are there. Policy differences are not cause and ignoring the President’s pleas is literally a job requirement. It’ll be a spectacular poo poo show if Trump tries to fire Powell. The Fed chairman is doing everything correctly right now so it’ll be an army of expert witnesses against some Trump lackey trying to justify governing markets “by feel”. Interest rates are still historically low and Trump is just trying to pin the blame for his trade wars on 50 basis points.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 16:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 04:15 |
|
|
Eltoasto posted:And we've also learned that there is no mechanism to actually prevent it, other than hoping the president isn't a power grabbing toddler. A judge could enjoin Trump from firing Powell if he goes to court over it and Trump fails to come up with a good enough cause. Imagining what this would do to the markets is left as an exercise for the reader.
|
|
#
?
Dec 24, 2018 16:07
|
|
