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Lightning Knight posted:I think that tacking right on that issue almost certainly cost her voter enthusiasm and volunteers, given similar reports about other conservative Democrats in red states such as Bresden. It may or may not have. Turnout was historically high, so it didn't counteract the overall trend. But, that doesn't explain why the candidate with the most socially liberal positions under performed the most. It was also certainly not the deciding factor in her race. The data actually shows that Pro-choice Republicans over-perform more than any other party/abortion policy combo. Pro-life Dems slightly over-perform. But, both of those are averages and swing wildly from election to election. Some elections it seems they really do matter and some they seem to have no impact whatsoever. It even applies with the same candidate over multiple elections. It's possible that it might all be changing, but right now it seems like a blanket policy on social issues would impact some elections more than others, but wouldn't significantly help or hurt electoral chances of Democrats. If the main "swing" demographic groups change massively or disperse themselves more evenly throughout the country, then it could be more impactful. It seems like it largely (on average) doesn't matter and saying that someone will definitely lose because they tacked to the center, left, or right on a certain social issue is rarely going to be correct.
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Dec 30, 2018 22:55
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Reminder that Heitkamp also voted for the hilariously unpopular bill to gut Dodd-Frank for which there is zero constituency in North Dakota, so it is a bit odd to chalk up her loss to her pro-choice position. She was just as pro-choice in 2012 and she won so there is clearly more going on here. Kind of hard to accept the "oh blue dogs have to be racist/sexist/homophobic/evil to win in red states because that's what the people want" reasoning when they specifically torpedo their own popularity by voting for terrible bills that no one but plutocrats want.
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Dec 30, 2018 22:59
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VitalSigns posted:Reminder that Heitkamp also voted for the hilariously unpopular bill to gut Dodd-Frank for which there is zero constituency in North Dakota, so it is a bit odd to chalk up her loss to her pro-choice position. I totally agree with you that taking positions siding with (or even perceived to be as siding with/insufficiently hostile to) unpopular industries is bad electorally and a more convincing argument to make (although, the counter argument would be: How many voters actually know about that vote? A very small amount and an even smaller amount would have changed their voting habits based on it). But, the original discussion was about social issues and banking regulation isn't part of that. The data shows that siding with banks/finance is broadly unpopular or neutral everywhere in the U.S.
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Dec 30, 2018 23:04
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Point being that chalking up Heitkamp's loss to social issues is so overly simplistic it's useless except as a tool for pushing a narrative which "coincidentally" happens to promote more regressive social policies. Coincidentally of course.
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Dec 30, 2018 23:09
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VitalSigns posted:Kind of hard to accept the "oh blue dogs have to be racist/sexist/homophobic/evil to win in red states because that's what the people want" reasoning when they specifically torpedo their own popularity by voting for terrible bills that no one but plutocrats want. The interesting thing is that it seems like it rarely does matter. Sometimes, it does make a large difference, but overall it is close to a wash (unless you are a Pro-choice Republican, where it seems to be either neutral or positive). That seems to support the idea that (usually) politicians should just have whatever your preferred/best position is on social issues. At least for abortion, weed, gay marriage, and immigration it doesn't seem to move the needle much overall, but is sometimes important in specific elections. Support for local industry seems to be one of the few areas where people in both parties can deviate from the national party and almost always benefit. VitalSigns posted:Point being that chalking up Heitkamp's loss to social issues is so overly simplistic it's useless except as a tool for pushing a narrative which "coincidentally" happens to promote more regressive social policies. As I said above, the data supports this interpretation. But, the original comment was about Bresden and Heitkamp sabotaging their elections over "bad" positions on immigration and women's issues. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 23:27 on Dec 30, 2018 |
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Dec 30, 2018 23:12
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VitalSigns posted:Point being that chalking up Heitkamp's loss to social issues is so overly simplistic it's useless except as a tool for pushing a narrative which "coincidentally" happens to promote more regressive social policies. Red State Democrats are the definition of "It's Complicated." I doubt Dodd Frank had much in the way of impact on how North Dakotans voted, though I don't have any data to back that up. Bredesen, on the other hand, loving up with his very loud, very public pro-Kavanaugh press release got far more play, and the reaction from his volunteers was measurable and reported upon. McCaskill being extremely sour-grapes on AOC, on that same note, makes sense to me. She's lived in a far less forgiving reality in terms of her electorate, and we probably agree that she read the room wrong in 2018. She got away with one in 2012 by shutting up and letting Akin dig his own grave (and that's probably being overly simplistic myself!), and she has no idea why she went out with what seemed like the right strategy historically and faceplanted. In the words of one of my friends in leadership, "Nobody wants to be part of a pansy movement." We've all got blood in our mouths in one form or another, and the establishment doesn't, because the last few years hasn't hosed THEM up. It's hosed US up. And now we're electing people who recognize that and run with that. We don't live in calculated times anymore. Heitkamp, to take it full circle, didn't make calculated moves with her pre-election votes. She took a highly publicized, principled stance on Kavanaugh, then hosed it up with the immigration stuff at the death. Being principled didn't help her, being calculated didn't help her. Sometimes you're just gonna loving lose, because your electorate decided to replace you. Humans are aggravating like that sometimes.
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Dec 30, 2018 23:28
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Kavanaugh killed the blue dogs in the Senate. Thanks Kennedy. The Senate needs to change hands and those red states are crucial. You need to play like Sherrod Brown or Jon Tester to win unless you go Full Manchin, who's basically a legacy in WV at this point. Please don't go Full Manchin.
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Dec 30, 2018 23:35
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While we could dicker about how many people remembered / voted / stayed home on the basis of the Dodd-Frank repeal, it is a fact that it was catastrophically unpopular And one of the Dems' biggest challenges is apathy and "both sides are the same"-ism and votes like that one contribute to that sentiment. Nobody wanted that bill. Republican voters didn't want that bill by 20-30 points! So before we start the horsetrading about which minorities to throw under the bus to appeal to the chuds maybe first these red state dems could stop voting for legislation so hated that America reaches across the aisle to say "gently caress that"? Just a thought idk, not a political genius here, but maybe voting for legislation that no one left right or center wants to see passed is poor electoral strategy? VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Dec 30, 2018 |
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Dec 30, 2018 23:37
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Nobody here is (well, I'm not) saying to sell out minorities, VS. I'm saying Dodd Frank isn't on the forefront of voters' minds. I agree with you that yeah, don't support unpopular legislation to appeal to donors. Donors still only vote once. Angry demographics vote in droves. But you're also assuming an awful lot about what voters may or may not know. Source: at yesterday's voter walk for a state senate special election, stories came out about people hollering about PRESIDENT BERNIE WOULDN'T HAVE PUT US IN THIS SHITSHOW. About a state-leg race. You're highly informed. The vast majority of voters aren't.
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Dec 30, 2018 23:51
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I didn't say you were, and I agree that we don't know how many people knew about / remembered / voted based on Dodd-Frank in 2018. Just pointing out that in all this discussion of abortion and Judge Kavanaugh, it's been overlooked that just a few months before an election a bunch of red state Dems voted for an insanely unpopular and downright horrible bill, and it wasn't a one-off either, they're the most consistently corrupt Democrats in office who rarely miss an opportunity to sell out their voters to banks and big business. Elections are won and lost on the margins, if only one voter out of nine remembered her record well she lost by 11 points. Donnelly and McCaskill lost by 6. Nelson by 0.5% Everyone always talks about how Dems gotta get more racist to pander to Panera Bread Republicans, but I rarely see it brought up that Blue Dogs constantly score incredible own goals like deliberately voting for universally-hated legislation come what way, in order to please donors who would rather see Republicans get elected anyway. "Most voters won't even remember, so I can do whatever I want, suckerrrrrs" is just a cop-out, elections are won and lost on the margins, you don't need most voters to remember you suck and to stay home in order for you to lose, just enough to put us a few points behind the Republican. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Dec 31, 2018 |
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Dec 31, 2018 00:05
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The Muppets On PCP posted:i wouldn't get my hopes up that the va dems won't be just as much a rubber stamp for dominion This is categorically not true. In 2017 there were 17 reps elected to the state house who swore to not take a cent of Dominion Powers blood money. And so far they have voted against them. Northram on the other hand is a conniving two-faced snake who fired 2 members off a board that were going to veto a natural gas pipeline and replaced them with Dominion Power shills who voted yes. gently caress Northram with a razorbladed rusty dildo.
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Dec 31, 2018 01:07
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VitalSigns posted:Point being that chalking up Heitkamp's loss to social issues is so overly simplistic it's useless except as a tool for pushing a narrative which "coincidentally" happens to promote more regressive social policies. But VitalSigns, that would mean someone started with the conclusion and work their way back to a thesis. Surely no one would do this. /s
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Dec 31, 2018 15:41
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i'll give Heiticamp this. She knows not to be a giant whiner unlike other people who lost their seats. Still think acting like a Republican didn't help her or them. Unlike the former trot. (BTW never trust form trots, they're all poo poo).
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Jan 1, 2019 16:13
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https://twitter.com/MikevWUSA/status/1080479329019138049
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Jan 2, 2019 16:15
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His name is "Dick Black" and he started his career trying to filter porn out of library computers. Satire is sometimes no match for reality.
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Jan 2, 2019 16:17
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not everyone can handle Black, Dick I guess
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Jan 2, 2019 16:38
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:His name is "Dick Black" and he started his career trying to filter porn out of library computers. His desire that no one see porn on library computers and thinking 'Yes, this is a pressing issue that must be dealt with and only I can go into politics to save us all from it" is really telling.
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Jan 2, 2019 17:03
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That name isn’t familiar. Is he a state senator?
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Jan 2, 2019 17:30
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Lightning Knight posted:That name isn’t familiar. Is he a state senator? Yeah, it's a state senator. The Virginia state legislatures are both controlled by Republicans, but by only a single seat in each chamber. So any resignation/retirement is a big deal. If Democrats take both chambers in 2019 and undo the Republican gerrymanders then Virginia becomes basically a solid blue state for the foreseeable future.
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Jan 2, 2019 17:33
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evilweasel posted:Yeah, it's a state senator. The Virginia state legislatures are both controlled by Republicans, but by only a single seat in each chamber. So any resignation/retirement is a big deal. That seems unusual to me, that he would retire under those circumstances?
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Jan 2, 2019 17:34
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Lightning Knight posted:That seems unusual to me, that he would retire under those circumstances? He'd be up for re-election this year, Virginia does its state elections in off-years (likely as a result of laws intended to keep those people from voting) and Democrats will be going all-out to win so he might as well get out while the getting is good rather than suffer through a tough re-election fight. Same reason you saw a lot of rats fleeing the sinking ship last year from the House. I THINK he's only announcing he's not running for re-election, not resigning ahead of time.
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Jan 2, 2019 17:38
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Lightning Knight posted:That seems unusual to me, that he would retire under those circumstances? The last library computer stopped working so the porn threat is gone.
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Jan 2, 2019 17:40
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evilweasel posted:He'd be up for re-election this year, Virginia does its state elections in off-years (likely as a result of laws intended to keep those people from voting) and Democrats will be going all-out to win so he might as well get out while the getting is good rather than suffer through a tough re-election fight. Same reason you saw a lot of rats fleeing the sinking ship last year from the House. Oh I see. I thought they were on four year terms. I see that YBF will be busy this year. Is Lee Carter up for re-election then? I’m gonna donate to his campaign if I have a job by then.
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Jan 2, 2019 17:42
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Lightning Knight posted:Oh I see. I thought they were on four year terms. I see that YBF will be busy this year. You're correct they're four year terms, but they weren't up for election in 2017. Their seats aren't staggered, so the entire state senate is up for election this year. Every Virginia state legislator in both houses will be on the ballot.
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Jan 2, 2019 17:44
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evilweasel posted:You're correct they're four year terms, but they weren't up for election in 2017. Their seats aren't staggered, so the entire state senate is up for election this year. Every Virginia state legislator in both houses will be on the ballot. Hm. I think I’m confused as to the timeline here. Don’t worry tho I’ll look it up when I get to my hotel room.
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Jan 2, 2019 17:45
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friendbot2000 posted:His desire that no one see porn on library computers and thinking 'Yes, this is a pressing issue that must be dealt with and only I can go into politics to save us all from it" is really telling. I mean it's possible he just liked to go the the library and google his own name and was very distressed by the results.
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Jan 2, 2019 17:49
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Lightning Knight posted:Hm. I think I’m confused as to the timeline here. Don’t worry tho I’ll look it up when I get to my hotel room. 2014: US House / US Senate (Warner) 2015: State House / State Senate 16: US House 17: Gov / Lt Gov / AG / State House 18: US House / US Senate (Kaine) 19: State House / State Senate House of Delegates every odd numbered year, State Senate every four years. E: county sheriffs and clerks are on their own bonkers time
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Jan 2, 2019 17:52
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Your Boy Fancy posted:2014: US House / US Senate (Warner) I see. I think I’m caught up then. So Lee Carter IS up for re-election? 
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Jan 2, 2019 17:54
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Lightning Knight posted:I see. I think I’m caught up then. Virginia Republicans are a classy bunch who clearly learned from Gillespie's thumping. https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1069768250609799169 https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1069772028708831235
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Jan 2, 2019 17:56
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Ague Proof posted:Virginia Republicans are a classy bunch who clearly learned from Gillespie's thumping. What a god. 
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Jan 2, 2019 17:57
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We need more politicians that just flat out tell you to gently caress off and die.
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Jan 2, 2019 18:06
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UCS Hellmaker posted:We need more politicians that just flat out tell you to gently caress off and die. we have tons, you're thinking of a major plank of the republican party platform you may be more specific in who you want your politicians to tell to gently caress off and die
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Jan 2, 2019 18:08
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Lightning Knight posted:What a god. That was one of the main reasons I loving love Lee Carter. As a fellow male survivor of rape, too see a male politician just come out like that was so goddamn inspiring and fills me with hope. He is an absolute savage who got his seat through working his fingers to the bone because he had ZERO help from the Democrats. The man is a legend and gives not a single gently caress lol. And yes YBF and I are both working hard to continue the electoral slaughter into 2019. If yall are in the area on Saturday we are canvassing for Jennifer Boysko for the special election on the 8th. Come help out because is one of the REAL ones. She has a great track record for human rights, green policies, and workers rights. https://twitter.com/LIUNA/status/1080488134423519239 friendbot2000 fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Jan 2, 2019 |
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Jan 2, 2019 19:43
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Lightning Knight posted:Is Lee Carter up for re-election then? https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1079967278442168321
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Jan 2, 2019 21:32
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Your Boy Fancy posted:2014: US House / US Senate (Warner)
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Jan 2, 2019 22:53
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Zero_Grade posted:Virginia Is For (Election) Lovers It really is. And it doesn't even get into hyper local races. Want to be constantly bombarded with campaign stuff? Vote in a primary for county/school board and be under the age of decrepit. Although I got to meet the entire Arlington board over the course of about 2 years just by showing up to stuff. Met the newest county board member randomly at a coffee shop a day before the election.
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Jan 3, 2019 00:52
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Honestly, VA’s constant stream of elections does a lot of good once you start engaging. There’s always more, and the momentum built from the last decade-plus has been tangible, though both parties are completely unequipped to handle the shift in the electorate. The state party haaaaates Carter, and I’m on record as thinking he’s better at gaining Twitter followers than allies, but he’s grown into himself. I’ll always remember that he showed up to the anti-Nazi rally in August - not as a glory seeker in a suit, but as a rank and file DSA member in a red T shirt and jeans. He’s a good man. But the state GOO is equally flat footed. They’re still cranking out the awfulness, because the primary base still lives that wacky wild Kool Aid style. They’re still the party of Cuccinelli and EW Jackson. So we fight on.
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Jan 3, 2019 03:54
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Your Boy Fancy posted:Honestly, VA’s constant stream of elections does a lot of good once you start engaging. There’s always more, and the momentum built from the last decade-plus has been tangible, though both parties are completely unequipped to handle the shift in the electorate. Lee Carter bucked EVERYTHING and trounced his opposition. I think he has a couple allies in people like Danica Roem, but I think he can survive if he sticks to his guns and does what he set out to do. He will definitely need all the help and volunteers he can get so anyone that can lend assistance for a guy who actually gives a poo poo about Virginians and regular peeps, it would go a long way! https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1080668411187871745 friendbot2000 fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Jan 3, 2019 |
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Jan 3, 2019 06:01
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https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1082716973786648576
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Jan 8, 2019 20:36
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Nancy Pelosi is going to require a House committee markup, debate, and vote on a bill for D.C. statehood for the first time in 26 years. The bill was written by D.C.'s non-voting delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton and already has 155 co-sponsors in the House (all of them Democrats). Unlikely that the Republican Senate will take it up, but they will be forced to decline it. They are also sending 16 D.C. reforms to the Senate with the hopes that some of them could be supported by Republicans. quote:Mindful of the political roadblocks ahead for full statehood, Norton is also pushing for 16 piecemeal reforms she says would inch the District closer to parity with the states. quote:The last time the House held a vote on statehood in 1993, it failed 277 to 153, with support from only 60 percent of Democrats and one Republican. https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...m=.b79ac2b4d3e7
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Jan 8, 2019 21:00
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