Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

Xae: Jan 19, 2005

AceRimmer posted:

Nuclear ICBMs have been hypersonic since they were developed....during the phase where they re-enter the atmosphere. Mach 3 for early ICMBs to around 20 for modern ones.

Blame China I guess https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/01/30/the-arms-race-goes-hypersonic/

The issue with IRBMs and MRBMs, particularly fast ones, is that it raises the potential for a First Strike capability.

It takes time for another state to detect, identify, decide and retaliate. ICBMs give 20-40 minutes. Newer, faster missiles launched from closer will give 5 or less minutes.

I would agree the problem goes back to the US pullout of the ABM treaty. Even if ABM is a boondoggle that costs billions and delivers nothing the possibility that it could work and the decades long timeline of missile development means everyone had to step up their game.

MAD may have sucked, but I'm not sure "We promise we won't use our turbo nukes" is a viable replacement system.

# ? Dec 27, 2018 20:02

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 13, 2024 23:58

pro starcraft loser: Jan 23, 2006; Stand back, this could get messy.

I feel like Russia is getting more aggressive because they are losing most global aspects outside of military power (I think?). Have a missile that goes mach 50, unless it can hit every silo, bomber, and missile sub the US has, its useless outside of maintaining MAD.

I'm more worried about the tactical nuclear capability this can be used for.

pro starcraft loser fucked around with this message at 02:04 on Dec 28, 2018

# ? Dec 28, 2018 01:43

Totally Reasonable: Jan 8, 2008; aaag mirrors

Launching SLBMs on a depressed trajectory is more effective than any of the retro 60s nuke projects Russia is publicizing. It makes me think that the bulava can't do depressed trajectory launches.

# ? Dec 28, 2018 02:25

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Totally Reasonable posted:

Launching SLBMs on a depressed trajectory is more effective than any of the retro 60s nuke projects Russia is publicizing. It makes me think that the bulava can't do depressed trajectory launches.

Budget cuts killed the cavitators so it cant depress as much as required by the original plan.. obviously the budget didnt cut it

# ? Dec 28, 2018 03:04

Rinkles: Oct 24, 2010; What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1078587170766667776

this would confirm that butina's plea was serious/substantive

# ? Dec 28, 2018 10:47

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

I read last month when Medvedev visited Belarus he suggested to Lukashenko it was time for Belarus to switch to the Russian ruble. I believe the Belarusian ruble is still tied to the American dollar.

Brown Moses posted:

Russia Today like to send thematic Christmas gifts to other media organisations. This year it's chocolate Salisbury cathedrals, referencing the time their editor-in-chief participated in the GRU's attempt to cover up their involvement in the attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal using a highly dangerous chemical agent, lol
https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1078288466327334915

Amazing.

# ? Dec 28, 2018 14:26

Xarn: Jun 26, 2015

LeoMarr posted:

Russia has broken the treaty numerous times via modifying mid range missiles for ground based launch
Unfortunately, for the US to maintain the nuclear edge we must exit the treaty as russia has already done things that have degredated the integrity of the agreement. Russia is literally annexing territory in europe and wreaking havoc with 4th gen warfare

It may be surprising to know that Russia wouldnt be able to hold territory in a modern occupation i.e iraq etc. It doesnt work. Russia has to create proxy puppets over years aka the astroturf firehose.

Someone asked about why ussia would want to puppet Ukraine, the reason is to thwrt furtber nato expansion and esrable a barrier state backed by heavy industry located right on the sea so goods can be moved in quick order. Ukrisine without mariupol or odessa or crimea Is a rump state. One that would require more outside assistance to survive.

The first prikrity Russia started after crimea was to work on the bridge. To connect russia to inner ukraine permanently. This bridge also cements russian control of the black sea as it allows rapid redelopyments of heavy arms in case of incursion into the island (and the water shortage oops)

Were you drunk when you wrote this?

# ? Dec 28, 2018 21:05

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Xarn posted:

Were you drunk when you wrote this?

That is his default posting condition.

# ? Dec 28, 2018 21:28

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Xarn posted:

Were you drunk when you wrote this?

idgi, seems mostly cogent.

# ? Dec 28, 2018 22:16

Rinkles: Oct 24, 2010; What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1078767722517938176?s=21

# ? Dec 29, 2018 00:00

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Rinkles posted:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1078767722517938176?s=21

2019s gonn be helluva year

# ? Dec 29, 2018 02:47

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

I read last month when Medvedev visited Belarus he suggested to Lukashenko it was time for Belarus to switch to the Russian ruble. I believe the Belarusian ruble is still tied to the American dollar.

It is tied to currency portfolio of RUB (40%), USD(30%) and EUR(30%).

# ? Dec 29, 2018 10:01

a podcast for cats: Jun 22, 2005; Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."; Soiled Meat

LeoMarr posted:

2019s gonn be helluva year

I am morbidly curious as to how this will be spun to be the fault of NATO and what's left of the West.

# ? Dec 29, 2018 12:50

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

This Ukrainian news source claims the sudden Russian fast-tracking of solidifying the Union State between Russia and Belarus is so Putin can be in charge of it in 2024.

https://www.segodnya.ua/world/russia/putin-budet-pytatsya-krasivo-ubrat-lukashenko-intervyu-s-iley-ponomarevym-1200868.html

quote:

�Putin will try to beautifully remove Lukashenko�: an interview with Ilya Ponomarev

About how Vladimir Putin can stay in power after 2024, what strategy the Kremlin is trying to apply to Ukraine, and why Russia has a stable personalist regime built at a time when the positions of the entire establishment are weak in Europe, told the Segodnya website Russian politician, former State Duma deputy (the only one who voted against the "annexation" of the occupied Crimea to Russia) Ilya Ponomarev.

- Ukraine enters in 2019, when there will be elections of the president and parliament. Can the current political situation lead to another Maidan, for example, if the candidate, the loser in the second round, does not accept defeat?

- I hope that reason is enough. Moreover, all sorts of street actions begin when the result of candidates in elections is close, and the opportunity arises to �add�. I think that the three candidates will have a close result in the first round, and whoever comes out in the second one will have a big gap. Therefore, I do not think that there are prerequisites for Maidan. Moreover, the threshold for passing to the second round should be low, not higher than 25%, and this is not enough for one candidate to impose his will on others. Although, in this case, all the losers against the leader may unite, they will have a confident majority, but I do not think that this is a possible scenario in the Ukrainian reality.

- Does the Kremlin have the opportunity to take a walk "around the meadow", to take part in parliamentary agreements that will be after the elections in the fall?

- The Kremlin will try to seriously influence the parliamentary, not the presidential elections, since none of the possible candidates for the last pro-Kremlin politician will ... Of course, everyone will blame each other for this, but in reality the Kremlin has no passing candidate. At the Kremlin's bid for presidential elections is simple: "the worse for Ukraine, the better." We need a candidate from whom it is impossible to wait for any socio-economic progress of the country. Moscow is interested in the fact that in the end Ukrainians rebel for internal reasons. This is their real bet, and in this sense, useful idiots, false patriots, and simply swindlers are more important to them than open agents.

- Why are such political events taking place in rich and prosperous Europe - for example, the protests of the "yellow vests" in France , the fall of the CDU / CSU rating in Germany, constant conflicts between the political forces of Poland, which they call lewica and prawica there ?

- Just because the rich. People generally rebel when they are doing well, not when it�s bad. There was no recession in Ukraine in 2013, it was only expected, but it was not. In 2004, the Orange Revolution occurred after a period of rapid economic growth. There are a lot of examples, it is a law of nature. In France, the reason for the speeches was a minor thing - a relatively small increase in gasoline prices, an environmental fee. At the same time, the increase in Macron minimum salary by 100 euros (now it is significantly higher than 1000 euros across the country) did not lead to their termination. So, the real reason is not in the price increase, but in something else.

Now the protesters in France are an unusual alliance of people of left and right values: the voters Marine Le Pen and Jean Luc Melanshon from the Left Front of France. There is virtually no center, two extremes, protesting against the mainstream. In my opinion, the reason is the same: in the whole "liberal" world, both in Europe and in the USA, the elites have lost touch with the people. Ordinary citizens have very little influence on decision-making processes. That is what brought Trump to power. This also gave a good result for Marine Le Pen. In Germany, we see this in the successes of AfD, in Italy the Five Star Movement, in Poland PiS Kaczynski. In Ukraine, this is the wind that blows into the sails of the Vladimir Zelensky rating. This is a historical trend, Ukraine as part of Europe already feels it.

So that this does not cause problems, the tops need to listen to the lower classes. In Ukraine, for example, there is a great opportunity to ask people what they think about joining the European Union and NATO. I think that citizens of Ukraine would respond positively to both questions. But it would be an honor for politicians who could ask people to feel this course as their own. And the incumbent would benefit from this. The more often to submit questions to referendums, the better. Switzerland places all significant issues on plebiscites, and there the populist movements are very weak. Remember, recently there was a referendum about the unconditional basic income, but people said: no! Because they are involved in the decision-making process, and they feel real responsibility for their voting.

- But opponents of frequent referendums can say, but Adolf Hitler was a fan of holding referendums when it was beneficial for him.

- And Hitler liked to draw - so, to prohibit painting and shoot artists? One should not confuse the essence of the policy pursued and the stability of its form. Hitler really relied on the lower classes and the middle class; he was not afraid to talk to them. He did terrible things, but his regime was very stable and popular. It took a military defeat to eliminate this regime. And if World War had not been unleashed, how to know how long it would have existed. Communication with the people, the expression of his will, including his delusions - this is very important.

- And how did Vladimir Putin build a stable regime, does he ask, or does he somehow feel people?

- Putin, of course, regularly tries on the mask of nationality. These are all his silly jokes , all his familiar behavior - this is exactly about it. But his main strength is still in the other - in the absence of an alternative. Putin never tries to convince the citizens of Russia that he is good; he says all the time that others are worse. "Yes, there are problems, my friends steal, but everyone else is even worse and will lead you in the 90s. Do you want in the 90s?" His message to the voters: let us steal, let them fatten, let the oligarchs, but in the 90s we won�t get you anymore. Therefore, he is far from such a stable situation, as it appears to outside observers. It is all on the alternatives supported by the Kremlin media: either pro-Putin neoconservatives, or pro-Western neoliberals and a �return to the 1990s�. Lastly, people do not exactly want.

This situation is extremely unstable, since there is no positive choice. As soon as it appears, an avalanche-like destruction of the Putin rating will take place. The fact that this will not happen in any way is also affected by the fact that a positive choice in the eyes of the Russian people can be either leftist or nationalist. The Kremlin is neutralizing the left choice through the Communist Party, which delays and neutralizes the young asset. Although this concept is already failing. Here were the elections in Khakassia, where the 30-year-old Komsomol member, Valentin Konovalov, won. His "senior comrades" put forward because they thought he would be a man who would not win under any circumstances. But in this situation, he became a fresh alternative in the eyes of the inhabitants of the region, people voted, despite the opposition of the administrative resource.

I am very worried about the nationalist alternative. Vladimir Zhirinovsky was kept for this group of the population, but he clearly does not cope. After "DNR" and "LNR" completely different people appeared, such as Girkin. They are popular among the people, but, contrary to popular opinion in Ukraine, they are by no means pro-Putin. They do not rush forward, while Putin supports the separatists, but when the Kremlin starts out, these guys will deploy their imperial flags in full. And this, given four years of brainwashing on TV, will definitely be an alternative for Russian citizens.

- I wonder how all the imperial flags and Russian nationalism get along with each other. The Habsburg and Romanov empires were supranational, but now Russian nationalism has privatized the empire, equating the Russians and the empire?

- I disagree. Russian nationalism is different. There is a wing of ethnic Russian nationalists, who mostly support Ukraine; many such ethnonationalists fight by volunteers on the side of Ukraine. They are repelled by the fact that "Russia is for Russians, and Ukraine for Ukrainians," they do not need to restore the Soviet Union. But there are Imperials who see the empire as a Russian empire, as well as the USSR. They are positive about the White movement, and Ukrainians are considered a misunderstanding. From their point of view, Ukrainians should not live in a separate country, we are still Slavs. The Russian world is first of all the Slavic world, including both Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians. Some look even wider ...

- Well, this is Solzhenitsyn, his ideas about the racial Slavic state, the division of Ukraine, and so on ...

- Not only Solzhenitsyn. There were others, like Igor Shafarevich, one of the ideologues of this movement. For them, the empire is supranational, they believe that the Ukrainians are part of the general Russian people, and the Americans are trying to tear them away from Russia. There is also the �Eurasianism� of Gumilyov-Dugin, which can be viewed as both internationalist and imperial worldviews - and the latter has recently turned out to be much larger.

- Have the Americans now (in the minds of the Russian "patriots") replaced what in the days of Denikin was the "Austrian General Staff and the German plan"?

- The Japanese have forgotten! You can say so, although I would not exaggerate their role. So far, the level of expertise there is so far behind the reality that you just wonder. And all that they touch in the most different corners of the world, while turning is not at all in gold.

- Does the liberals have any alternative to this , they can offer some kind of plan?

- In my opinion, no. Putin has absorbed almost everything that is the calling card of the liberals. The socio-economic policy he pursues is filled with the classic neoliberal agenda: pension reform, health care and education reforms written in the interests of large corporations Tax and Labor Code. These are all neoliberal reforms. This, by the way, is the reason why Putin was chosen by Yeltsin. Many people for some reason think that there was a progressive Democrat Yeltsin, then Putin came by mistake, he chose. No, he was elected by Yeltsin and the entire top then consciously, as it was impossible to carry out the reforms begun in the 1990s, in conditions that were let out in 1993, but democracy. Democracy was a direct threat to the safety of their capital and an obstacle to further enrichment. Because if the elections in 2000 were democratic and met the aspirations of the people, they would have been won by Yevgeny Primakov, who promised to dekulakize the oligarchs in general and the "family" in particular. That is why Putin appeared as a power fist to protect the oligarchs, to carry out neoliberal reforms and tighten the screws on the democratic liberty.

At the same time, if Putin would carry out the reforms developed by Gaidar without attempts to redistribute capital among the oligarchs, then this would suit everyone. But in 2003, Putin decided to take Yukos from Mikhail Khodorkovsky and transfer it to Igor Sechin, starting the process of reallocating capital in favor of his St. Petersburg friends. These friends of Putin are no different from the oligarchs of the 1990s, except that they disguise themselves as state managers. Operating the state corporations Rosneft, Gazprom, Russian Railways and others, they manage them as their private companies. And the result is the same: both the St. Petersburg "statist" elite and the liberal elite of the 1990s do the same work � they earn in Russia and withdraw money to the West.

- Therefore, the constant outflow of capital?

- Yes, Putin and Yeltsin elites are equally comprador. Therefore, any alternative claimed by the population will be nationally oriented. Whether it is left or right, it will demand to stop withdrawing money to the West and start investing it domestically and in the interests of its economy. Putin is trying to pretend to be a great statesman and Alexander the Great; but this is Alexander of Macedon, who, if he could, would gladly go with his money to his gallery in Rome.

- Can the fall of Putin's rating make his policy more aggressive towards Ukraine and Belarus?

- Both the preservation of Putin and his fall can lead to both one and the other. I will not say that the Russian president cannot retreat with dignity, given the total control over the media and security forces, but it�s still difficult. So the preservation of Putin is a continuation of the current course with the growth of aggressive rhetoric and constant appeals to the phenomena of the past that are popular among Russians - the Union, the Victory, the great kings and the popular general secretaries.

What could be after him? Perhaps, as I said, the strengthening of the nationalist list and the radicalization of the regime; and perhaps the collapse of the country, because with the fall of such a centralized Bonapartist regime, centrifugal tendencies are inevitable. They will be in any case, even in the case of an attempt to "soft" transfer of power to the successor, but I don�t know if this is enough for the collapse of the country. But if such tendencies manifest themselves, then I do not think that Ukraine should be interested in the collapse of Russia.

- Why?

- In my opinion, Ukraine would benefit from a pro-Western and democratic Russia. Ukraine would benefit from Russia's accession to the EU and NATO. These structures could institutionally curb Russia's imperial aspirations, as they curbed the imperial ambitions of Germany or France. The collapse will mean the creation of several nuclear states along the perimeter of your borders, which are likely to fight among themselves, as well as refugee flows, and "wild divisions", and a lot of other problems.

- Putin will try to stabilize his rating?

- It will, but it is not clear how to do it, since the rating fell below the pre-Crimea level. This is the result of pension reform . I do not know why he started it. Perhaps this is a trite "patsanskaya" agreement with Alexei Kudrin. I have no reasonable explanation.

- But, as an option, Kudrin and put the prime minister, after the topic with the reform goes out?

- I do not think that he will change Medvedev, and if he does, he will be more likely to be a technocrat and an artist like Sobyanin, and not his former boss Kudrin. Putin does not need a number of people who can say no to him. It�s one thing to listen to smart advice, and another to lose the opportunity to present your prime minister as a whipping boy at any desired time. Yes, and Kudrin is also not a generator of meanings, he is rather a higher level accountant than a visionary.

Moreover, Putin is not going to go anywhere, and for him the question of raising the rating is really important. Another thing is that he is unlikely to be after 2024 the President of the Russian Federation. It will be some kind of boss, but with a different name. Now the most obvious scenario is connected with Belarus - not with its military annexation (which I do not believe), but through the strengthening of the Union State , so to speak, the creation of the USSR-2.0. For Putin, the main thing here is not to enter into direct competition with Lukashenko - he would not want to face him in the elections, because the result is far from obvious. Therefore, Putin will try to remove him nicely in order to run for the presidency of the Union State for another two terms.

For example, in 2020, when elections are scheduled in Belarus, Lukashenko leaves, and then after a year or two elections of the head of the Union State are held. Then the same Medvedev, like the prime minister, according to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, goes back to the chair of the Russian president. He can then be elected - this post does not solve anything again. And Putin continues to reign under the silently-envious-preoccupied sighs of the leaders of the West. And under the cannonade on the Ukrainian front ...

I am not sure, but I would think becoming president of the Union State would be a big step down in authority for Putin. Long interview, but worth reading.

# ? Dec 29, 2018 14:36

freeasinbeer: Mar 26, 2015; by Fluffdaddy

I think the argument is that Putin will become the leader of USSR 2 and that it will be a leadership position over both countries.

# ? Dec 29, 2018 14:46

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

The Union State has an interesting history. Lukashenko pitched the idea to Yeltsin, who agreed to it. Then Yeltsin stepped down in 2000 and Putin became president. After that, neither country seemed all that enthused to continue. It's there but really has no authority.

Also, the idea they're going to get rid of Lukashenko right now is not possible. As long as he's breathing he's going to be president of Belarus.

# ? Dec 29, 2018 15:05

Fabulous Knight: Nov 11, 2011

LeoMarr posted:

2019s gonn be helluva year

Is there any other kind at this point

# ? Dec 29, 2018 15:25

Lichtenstein: May 31, 2012; It'll make sense, eventually.

So a year ago the brother of my friend got abducted by FSB in some bizarre international catfishing scheme. Since for some reason they are convinced a 19 yo kid is a terrorist mastermind they've been denying him access to medicine/doctors and it seems the guy is losing his eyesight by now. :smith:

https://charter97.org/en/news/2018/12/24/317649/

# ? Dec 29, 2018 15:47

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

The Union State has an interesting history. Lukashenko pitched the idea to Yeltsin, who agreed to it. Then Yeltsin stepped down in 2000 and Putin became president. After that, neither country seemed all that enthused to continue. It's there but really has no authority.

Also, the idea they're going to get rid of Lukashenko right now is not possible. As long as he's breathing he's going to be president of Belarus.

The other thing is that Lukashenko has sons that everyone is familiar with in Belarus. While his youngest Nikolai gets the lion share of public attention because of his resemblance to Joffery, Lukashenko has two adult sons, Viktor and Dmitry, that are already well-established. Not to mention, by the time they're going to try this big anschluss by 2024, Nikolai will be in his twenties and already well-versed in authoritarian politics since birth, while Putin will probably sundowning into his seventies.

# ? Dec 30, 2018 17:06

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Putin will be walking Botox container by then.

# ? Dec 30, 2018 17:54

Dapper_Swindler: Feb 14, 2012; Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Rinkles posted:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1078767722517938176?s=21

2019 is the year of the russian Anschluss.

# ? Dec 30, 2018 18:14

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Everybody enjoying the new year? :haw:

Putin Wishes Happy New Year To Belarusian President

quote:

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 30th December, 2018) Russian President Vladimir Putin has wished a merry Christmas and a happy New Year to his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, noting that the two countries were continuing their efforts aimed at strengthening their Union State, the Kremlin said on Sunday.

"When congratulating President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, the head of the Russian state noted that ... Russian-Belarusian cooperation was successfully developing in the political, economic, humanitarian spheres and other fields, [that] the work aimed at strengthening the Union State was continuing along with close coordination of efforts in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] and CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization]," the Kremlin said.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1079775565773721600

HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Dec 31, 2018

# ? Dec 31, 2018 17:39

Qtotonibudinibudet: Nov 7, 2011; Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

In non-Belarus absorption news, there were 2 good CCC talks about Russia stuff, concerning RKN's flailing about attempting to block Telegram and how the Crimean internet switched from being Ukrainian to Russian:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUrJgfuWu1U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmskfem30dg

# ? Dec 31, 2018 20:02

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Autocephaly is done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpQpgT98G5c

# ? Jan 5, 2019 13:52

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Autocephaly is done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpQpgT98G5c

Greek calligraphy looks pretty:
https://mobile.twitter.com/poroshenko/status/1081529047614656512

# ? Jan 5, 2019 16:35

Doctor Malaver: May 23, 2007; Ce qui s'est pass� t'a rendu plus fort

Kosovo+Albania unification is getting very little coverage, at least in English language media. This is in Croatian:

http://www.novilist.hr/Komentari/Blogovi/Drugo-misljenje-Zdenka-Duke/ZDENKO-DUKA-Velika-Albanija-pa-velika-Srbija!

Some key points
- The unification of Albanians should be done by 2025. It's unclear if this means just Kosovo and Albania or perhaps Macedonian and Montenegrin Albanians too.
- Kosovo/Albania border is getting dismantled and by March it will be an area like Schengen
- Kosovo armed forces upgraded to an official Army
- Serbia is giving up on the idea of the entire Kosovo and will try to get just the areas with Serb majority. USA supports the land swap and so does Kosovo president, but not Kosovo PM.
- Balkan countries are worried about it because it would open the door to Serbian entity exiting Bosnia and Herzegovina.

https://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2019&mm=01&dd=04&nav_id=105919

This is en English, Serbian PM threatening to complain to Coca-Cola about Kosovo (!?) and also calling it a "hub of drugs, weapons, and people trafficking, and has had the highest number Islamic State fighters relative to its population". Sour grapes, huh?

# ? Jan 7, 2019 11:57

Randarkman: Jul 18, 2011

Cat Mattress posted:

If you mean "shatter the Earth into a new asteroid belt for the Sun, Death Star-style" then no, absolutely not. If you mean "provoke an environmental and civilizational collapse that will wipe out most and perhaps even all of humanity" then yes.

They'd probably need to target some cities with it, to start fires and get a prodigious amount of ash and soot into the atmosphere if it should have a chance of causing nuclear winter. Just blowing all of the nukes up on the ground would not cause nuclear winter, it would seed much of Russia (though IIRC most of their nukes are in sparsely populated areas) with radioactive fallout, which would render living in those parts of the country difficult or impossible for a while (and other regions as well dependent on winds), but you'd not get nuclear winter without destroying cities.

# ? Jan 7, 2019 18:17

spacetoaster: Feb 10, 2014

Dawncloack posted:

I dunno, if Russia detonated a quarter of their nuclear arsenal on the ground they'd destroy the world all the same, wouldn't they?

Not even close. You could wipe out a sizable portion of the human population in the major cities, but rural places would probably be fine once everything settled down.

Hell, Hiroshima is a bustling metropolis and center of industry today.

Randarkman posted:

They'd probably need to target some cities with it, to start fires and get a prodigious amount of ash and soot into the atmosphere if it should have a chance of causing nuclear winter. Just blowing all of the nukes up on the ground would not cause nuclear winter, it would seed much of Russia (though IIRC most of their nukes are in sparsely populated areas) with radioactive fallout, which would render living in those parts of the country difficult or impossible for a while (and other regions as well dependent on winds), but you'd not get nuclear winter without destroying cities.

In reality the radioactive fallout from weapons is only dangerous for a week or so.

As to nuclear winter, I believe current models predict it would only last about 4 years.

spacetoaster fucked around with this message at 20:05 on Jan 7, 2019

# ? Jan 7, 2019 20:02

AceRimmer: Mar 18, 2009

According to a 2013 climate study, a 100 Hiroshima-size bomb exchange between Pakistan/India would drop crop yields in China/US by 10-40%. So a much larger exchange probably means the end of civilization in the Northern Hemisphere.

# ? Jan 7, 2019 20:24

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

AceRimmer posted:

According to a 2013 climate study, a 100 Hiroshima-size bomb exchange between Pakistan/India would drop crop yields in China/US by 10-40%. So a much larger exchange probably means the end of civilization in the Northern Hemisphere.

I think that same study said about 1 billion people would be affected by the indirect effects like fallout, accelerated climate change due to the minor nuclear winter, collapsing crop yields causing famines, etc.

I'm just unsure if I'm remembering it as merely affected or actually killed by indirect effects.

# ? Jan 7, 2019 20:41

Randarkman: Jul 18, 2011

spacetoaster posted:

As to nuclear winter, I believe current models predict it would only last about 4 years.

Crops failing for about 4 years is no small deal.

AceRimmer posted:

According to a 2013 climate study, a 100 Hiroshima-size bomb exchange between Pakistan/India would drop crop yields in China/US by 10-40%. So a much larger exchange probably means the end of civilization in the Northern Hemisphere.

Yes, but the proposed scenario was just the Russians blowing up a bunch of their nukes on the ground. Unless they blew up all of their cities by this, I don't really see a nuclear winter resulting. Nuclear winter as hypothesized is due to soot and ash gathering in the atmosphere from long-lasting and pervasive fires in several hundred or thousand major cities as a result of bombing, not from radiation or radioactive fallout.

Young Freud posted:

I'm just unsure if I'm remembering it as merely affected or actually killed by indirect effects.

Likely it means affected by. It would probably be similar to the fallout from the Chernobyl diaster in that radioactive byproducts would gather up in the soil and therefore food and such in regions downwind, requring measures to prevent long-term heath issues (or death from radiation sickness for for the immediate aftermath though, due to the extreme radioactivity and therefore short half life of many fission products).

Randarkman fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Jan 7, 2019

# ? Jan 7, 2019 20:43

spacetoaster: Feb 10, 2014

Randarkman posted:

Crops failing for about 4 years is no small deal.

Correct.

I was just pointing out that it wouldn't mean the end of the world.

# ? Jan 7, 2019 21:10

Conspiratiorist: Nov 12, 2015; 17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the ~~fifth~~ ~~sixth~~ some day

The world doesn't end.

But it certainly stands a good chance of collapsing modern global civilization, if not by itself then by combining it with our already scheduled ecosystem collapse.

# ? Jan 7, 2019 21:14

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

This has nothing to do with Eastern Europe.

# ? Jan 7, 2019 21:17

Conspiratiorist: Nov 12, 2015; 17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the ~~fifth~~ ~~sixth~~ some day

cinci zoo sniper posted:

This has nothing to do with Eastern Europe.

Yet.

# ? Jan 7, 2019 21:21

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Conspiratiorist posted:

Yet.

Be my guest when it is. You can always create a nuclear war discussion thread and see it die in 2 pages like the last nuclear war thread born out of this one did because there're whole 3.5 people on the forums interested in paranoid drivel by armchair generals.

# ? Jan 7, 2019 21:42

AceRimmer: Mar 18, 2009

OK how about people's experiences with Cold War civil defense stuff in Eastern Europe, instead of Clancy chat?

As a kid I remember seeing a similar chart of what different air raid siren tones meant in my tower block in Yugoslavia.

# ? Jan 7, 2019 22:37

jonnypeh: Nov 5, 2006

Meanwhile in Estonia. First the funny part: The Estonian Government's Failed Video Game (youtube)

Since elections are soon upon us the conservative racists have come out.... with their election promises. That includes big government spending to the tune of 5 billion EUR divided between four years. Some of the reasoning being that the people will not have to go hungry for the sake of keeping state budget in balance. Includes lowering VAT to 15%, reducing fuel, alcohol and electricity excises to have cheapest energy in the region, building four new four-lane highways, a bridge between the mainland and our biggest island, scrapping Rail Baltica as it is planned now (because why take the shortest route if you can go around), no road taxes, and of course limiting number of foreign workers to encourage domestic wage growth. In cooperation with businesses determining which laws and regulations are most bureaucratic/costly and scrapping those. Because where has that ever gone wrong.

Oh, and also asking USA for military aid of 1 billion USD. Because that will go over well with Donald Trump. Surely if Israel qualifies....

Several other things have happened recently, like a bunch of posters that were put up last Sunday at a tram stop, one saying "Estonians stand here" and another one saying "Russians stand here". Comparisons with apartheid came very quickly (Russian media is probably having a field day with that) and those posters were vandalized later in the same evening. Or maybe I should say "vandalized". It turned out they were put up by a new liberal-progressive party. Then next day new posters were put up at the same place by the same bunch, that said "Estonians and Russians going to school together", et cetera. That's one way to get people to talk about you, though comments on the internet and responses by other parties are mostly negative.

jonnypeh fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Jan 8, 2019

# ? Jan 8, 2019 19:21

Darth Walrus: Feb 13, 2012

AceRimmer posted:

OK how about people's experiences with Cold War civil defense stuff in Eastern Europe, instead of Clancy chat?

As a kid I remember seeing a similar chart of what different air raid siren tones meant in my tower block in Yugoslavia.

What's the bottom one? Kaiju attack?

# ? Jan 8, 2019 19:37

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 13, 2024 23:58

Gervasius: Nov 2, 2010; Grimey Drawer

Darth Walrus posted:

What's the bottom one? Kaiju attack?

From top to bottom:

- General public mobilization

- Air raid warning

- Nuclear - biological - chemical alert

- Fire alert

- Natural disaster warning

- All clear

# ? Jan 8, 2019 19:53

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

«‹›463 »