|
hallebarrysoetoro posted:that many people will easily die from preventable deaths stemming from brexit, the only question is "over how long of a timeline" Again, you're talking about a hard no-deal Brexit, which I agree is extremely bad. But I don't think what you're saying applies to every possible brexit.
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 13:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 19:49 |
|
|
twoday posted:Did you watch the video? I've some experience with rushed start ups and none of this is particularly egregious. So shrug.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 14:03
|
|
|
SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:Why would brexit end austerity? It wouldn't. Every brexit that isn't brexit-in-name-only will have serious repercussions for the economy, which means reduced income from corporate tax, lots of people suddenly out of a job and on unemployment and also not paying tax. In all likelihood we'll see much more austerity regardless of whether labour or conservatives are in charge.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 14:21
|
|
|
MikeCrotch posted:Again, you're talking about a hard no-deal Brexit, which I agree is extremely bad. But I don't think what you're saying applies to every possible brexit. What realistically possible brexit deal isn't complete poo poo?
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:05
|
|
|
brugroffil posted:What realistically possible brexit deal isn't complete poo poo? one where you stay in the customs union for a start.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:06
|
|
|
brugroffil posted:What realistically possible brexit deal isn't complete poo poo? Single market but no free movement and Britain keeps its rebate and gets veto powers in the council, commission and parliament and also Juncker has to apologize for being such a dick to plucky little Grate Britane on Britane national telly
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:13
|
|
|
brugroffil posted:What realistically possible brexit deal isn't complete poo poo? everything that is leaving the customs union is completely catastrophic. The DUP don't like May's deal because it keeps NI in the customs union but not the UK and they want NI to be functionally identical to the rest of the UK. Tory hard brexiters hate it because they want completely out of the customs union to negotiate a free trade agreement with the US that will get us on their standards for food, workers rights and allow the NHS to be sold off. Some of them also want it because in that event the government will likely privatise everything else available which these people want to be part of
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:15
|
|
|
brugroffil posted:What realistically possible brexit deal isn't complete poo poo? theres a fantastical version where labour: a) successfully gets the tories to vote themselves out of power in a VONC b) wins a general election with a majority c) manages to convince the EU to go back to square one and renegotiate the whole thing to give britain a better deal d) manages to do a sort of Brexit in Name Only, keeping us in all the same treaties in this version only ~thousands would die
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:16
|
|
|
Hentai Jihadist posted:theres a fantastical version where labour: Still a disaster because then you lose your representation in the EU and your rebate on the membership fees. And the inevitable attempt at rejoining in ten years would probably require a hard commitment to join the Eurozone and defense integration
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:20
|
|
|
Hentai Jihadist posted:theres a fantastical version where labour: this isn't that absurd, and i think for a serious opposition it is the only policy that makes sense. the EU have said that they would extend A50 and renegotiate with a different government.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:20
|
|
|
JFairfax posted:the EU have said that they would extend A50 and renegotiate with a different government. That's interesting, do you have a source?
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:22
|
|
|
JFairfax posted:this isn't that absurd, and i think for a serious opposition it is the only policy that makes sense. none of the individual steps are absurd but each step ranges from unlikely to very unlikely and you basically need to do them all even for labour to win a GE with a majority we basically have to rely on all the polls being wrong (totally plausible) and the british electorate not being stupid assholes (oh no) i think its totally possible labours superior ground game and, yknow, actually offering people good stuff wins out despite the expectations of the clueless establishment but labours eventual brexit stance may well gently caress them over with at least one flavour of their voters if not both at a time we need all the votes we can get i think thats the potential game changer. theyr in a real difficult position and Im not sure anything they can do can thread the needle. though gently caress knows its possible it turns out nobody gives a gently caress now and everyone is tired of brexit and in that case their manifesto is strong.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:34
|
|
|
Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:That's interesting, do you have a source? "EU officials and diplomats have told the Guardian it would instead require a fundamental shift in British politics for there to be any value for the EU in an extension of the UK’s membership. That position is echoed in Berlin and Paris, among other EU capitals." Mujtaba Rahman, a former Treasury and European commission official, and now head of Europe for the Eurasia Group risk consultancy, said: “An extension can’t be an end in itself. It would need to come with political change in Westminster, a referendum, change of leader or general election, otherwise negotiations would risk remaining deadlocked. That’s the view of the commission, the European council, Berlin and Paris.” https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/article-50-extension-unlikely-without-shift-in-uk-politics-say-eu-officials this was the view in july of last year so it has been known for a while.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 15:44
|
|
|
JFairfax posted:"EU officials and diplomats have told the Guardian it would instead require a fundamental shift in British politics for there to be any value for the EU in an extension of the UK’s membership. That position is echoed in Berlin and Paris, among other EU capitals." I guess we will see shortly cause parliament is almost certainly gonna try for an extension to avoid making any decisions
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 16:02
|
|
|
JFairfax posted:"EU officials and diplomats have told the Guardian it would instead require a fundamental shift in British politics for there to be any value for the EU in an extension of the UK’s membership. That position is echoed in Berlin and Paris, among other EU capitals." I'm very sceptical about that. That's old and before a deal on the transition phase was actually reached. I don't even see how a Labour government represents a fundamental shift in EU-British relation with everything that happened in the last few months. AFAIK they are not explicitly for reversing Brexit or holding a new referendum, they just want to reopen negotiations, something the EU doesn't want to. I know it seems different from the British perspective, but there is really nothing left to negotiate about from the EU perspective. It got the deal it aimed for and the only deal it thinks is possible. Any extension of the negotiation would require unanimous agreement of all EU members and the two main points of contention, the NI situation and the freedom of movement, are not in any way up for reevaluation. Ireland is gonna block any attempt of extension over NI and all of the EU stands behind freedom of movement cause any kind of compromise on that subject would probably be the end of the EU as we know it. What is there left to negotiate about, from the EU perspective? Can a Labour government get Ireland to accept a closed NI border?
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 16:31
|
|
|
The deal is the only one possible given Theresa May's red lines. Labour's are different.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 16:34
|
|
|
Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:. What is there left to negotiate about, from the EU perspective? Can a Labour government get Ireland to accept a closed NI border? A labour government led by Jeremy "friend of the 'Ra and Irish nationalist" Corbyn wouldn't accept a closed NI border any more than Ireland does, the question doesn't make sense.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 16:36
|
|
|
I'm just a jackoff yank who mostly shitposts for laffs, but I don't see how there'll be an opportunity for a political realignment before the deadline. From an outside perspective I think the most likely outcome will look a lot like the 2008 bailout package here in the US: May's deal gets rejected with much chest thumping and talk of Blitz Spirit or whatever the gently caress and then the markets take a massive poo poo and the deal passes on a second panic vote. No Deal is still the comedy option, but it's way, way more likely than I ever thought it would be. And that's frankly pretty frightening.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 16:43
|
|
|
Irony Be My Shield posted:The deal is the only one possible given Theresa May's red lines. Labour's are different. What deal do you think Labour can get? I'm genuinely curious cause I don't read British papers and haven't been following the thing very closely. All I can say for sure is that single market membership without freedom of movement is not on the table. I can't stress that hard enough. It's Stalingrad². Without some huge rear end leverage, nobody is even going to entertain the idea. I would seriously forget about it unless you are willing to threaten to nuke the continent over it.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 16:45
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1084472392599113728
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 16:48
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/dburns84uk/status/1084424261278855168?s=19 "This doesn't explain anything," I shout as I abruptly stop reading a letter that explains everything
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:09
|
|
|
Zeroisanumber posted:I'm just a jackoff yank who mostly shitposts for laffs, but I don't see how there'll be an opportunity for a political realignment before the deadline. Why would it pass on the second vote? If there's a panic its more likely its used to finally make her gently caress off even if it involves them threatening to murder her in a closed office somewhere. This idea that May is in a strong position with her weird hostage plan is dumb. She's dumb and holds no power.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:32
|
|
|
Regarde Aduck posted:Why would it pass on the second vote? If there's a panic its more likely its used to finally make her gently caress off even if it involves them threatening to murder her in a closed office somewhere. This idea that May is in a strong position with her weird hostage plan is dumb. She's dumb and holds no power. She’s banking the “Anyone but Corbyn” MP’s in Labour will vote with her and as bets go it’s not a bad one
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:35
|
|
|
Regarde Aduck posted:Why would it pass on the second vote? If there's a panic its more likely its used to finally make her gently caress off even if it involves them threatening to murder her in a closed office somewhere. This idea that May is in a strong position with her weird hostage plan is dumb. She's dumb and holds no power. Obviously I'm missing a lot of nuance because I'm ignorant of processes and not steeped in the culture, but all over the world politicians love cowardice and easy ways out more than anything else. For the Tories, May's plan could very well turn into the easy way out.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:47
|
|
|
twoday posted:https://twitter.com/dburns84uk/status/1084424261278855168?s=19 no likes, retweets or replies who the gently caress cares what some nobody thinks?
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:56
|
|
|
Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:I'm very sceptical about that. That's old and before a deal on the transition phase was actually reached. I don't even see how a Labour government represents a fundamental shift in EU-British relation with everything that happened in the last few months. AFAIK they are not explicitly for reversing Brexit or holding a new referendum, they just want to reopen negotiations, something the EU doesn't want to. An obvious difference is that Corbyn doesn't share May's insane red lines on free movement, which means that the obviously best option of bilateral agreement Swiss type arrangement becomes possible. The only reason the negotiations were so hosed up is because May kept demanding explicitly off the table poo poo to appease her own racism, her party's, and the DUP.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:08
|
|
|
Goa Tse-tung posted:no likes, retweets or replies lol at having this criteria while posting on dead gay forums the tweet is complete poo poo though
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:28
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ElBartoArmy/status/1084481142995238912 did not read the link but lol
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:35
|
|
|
exmarx posted:https://twitter.com/ElBartoArmy/status/1084481142995238912 THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOOD RIOTS
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:39
|
|
|
closest thing to a source i could find for that (in five minutes of googling) doesn't say england has 60 harvests left it says the world, lol. 'it' being direct quotes from the relevant UN officials https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/only-60-years-of-farming-left-if-soil-degradation-continues/ quote:Generating three centimeters of top soil takes 1,000 years, and if current rates of degradation continue all of the world's top soil could be gone within 60 years, a senior UN official said on Friday. throwing fertilizer at the problem has gotten us to 7 billion people but that's not a long term strategy that article lists organic farming as a possible solution and no-till farming is a thing that's being tried on a tiny scale in agribusiness-heavy areas, so hopefully we can save some of the soil before its all gone. id like to learn more, though
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:43
|
|
|
Coohoolin posted:An obvious difference is that Corbyn doesn't share May's insane red lines on free movement, which means that the obviously best option of bilateral agreement Swiss type arrangement becomes possible. The only reason the negotiations were so hosed up is because May kept demanding explicitly off the table poo poo to appease her own racism, her party's, and the DUP. What's different between May's deal and a Switzerland type arrangement?
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:48
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:closest thing to a source i could find for that (in five minutes of googling) doesn't say england has 60 harvests left Aren't yields from organic farming insanely lower
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:51
|
|
|
Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:What's different between May's deal and a Switzerland type arrangement? For starters, Switzerland agrees to the 4 freedoms, has reciprocal freedom of movement, and gets to partake in the common market, which is contingent on freedom of movement. May is a crazy racist who worked herself into a corner by demanding a deal that removes free movement.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:53
|
|
|
brugroffil posted:Aren't yields from organic farming insanely lower yeah i think that's kind of the central predicament. it seems like the proposed solutions are orders of magnitude smaller than the problems they need to solve. meanwhile i don't really see much from ag on the soil conservation issue* (aside from low-hanging fruit like the anti-erosion techniques that helped stop the dust bowl in the 30s). i guess thats how a global sustainability crisis works *im ignorant so hopefully theres something thats more than a pr release meanwhile, brexit
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:57
|
|
|
Coohoolin posted:May is a crazy racist who worked herself into a corner by demanding a deal that removes free movement. now now now thats a little harsh where is your  ?shes a crazy fascist not necessarily a crazy racist only pretty drat likely e: the rule has always been that you dont make home secs PMs because it turns everyone one of them into an authoritarian nutcase cause thats basically the job. your job is to reduce immigration, keep people in prison and deport people, if any one of those things doesn't happen its a failure for your department Communist Thoughts has issued a correction as of 19:03 on Jan 13, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:01
|
|
|
Isn't the entire central selling point of Brexit based on an end to free movement in the name of racism?
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:07
|
|
|
Coohoolin posted:For starters, Switzerland agrees to the 4 freedoms, has reciprocal freedom of movement, and gets to partake in the common market, which is contingent on freedom of movement. May is a crazy racist who worked herself into a corner by demanding a deal that removes free movement. What part of the May deal do you think should be improved? I mean, I'm just trying to figure out what it is exactly that Britain wants from the transition deal and I'm running out of ways of how to phrase it.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:09
|
|
|
Hentai Jihadist posted:now now now thats a little harsh where is your her hatred of ethnic minorites is the one thing thats remained consistent throughout her career
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:14
|
|
|
Zeroisanumber posted:Isn't the entire central selling point of Brexit based on an end to free movement in the name of racism? it was mostly just to stoke some anti-immigrant sentiment for elections, things were never supposed to actually get this far but everyone involved is too stupid and/or cowardly to stop
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:16
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 15, 2024 19:49 |
|
|
was there ever serious discussion of using a higher threshold than a simple majority, like 2/3rds or 60% or something? if they'd gotten their slight majority but not triggered any actual consequences i could imagine it being good for them, from the 'increasing racist turnout in the next election' perspective
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:22
|
|