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I honestly don't think Trump is gonna give in. I think he's at this point stuck. Like if he capitulates then he disappoints his core base so I just don't think he's going to do that.
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Jan 13, 2019 18:38
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More to the point, he's basically a nihilist. He legit doesn't care if the government operates or not, it doesn't affect him in any way, so he is by far the best equipped person in Washington to win this particular game of chicken. As long as McConnell is holding down his flank, he doesn't see any reason to back down. None of his previous misbehavior or mismanagement has had any consequences, and if he "wins" this particular round of hostage taking and gets his wall money, it's unclear if that will hurt him or congressional democrats more.
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Jan 13, 2019 18:43
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It'd be great if AF1 couldn't fly. Unfortunately, the fleet's not subject to civilian ATC.
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Jan 13, 2019 19:01
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So does the gov't shutdown affect air travel somehow? How does this work for the TSA? Do they have to work and just not get paid?
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Jan 13, 2019 20:27
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Zipperelli. posted:So does the gov't shutdown affect air travel somehow? How does this work for the TSA? Do they have to work and just not get paid? https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/11/nyregion/tsa-shutdown.html quote:The nation’s 51,000 airport security agents are among the federal employees who have been ordered to work through the partial shutdown, which began on Dec. 22.
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Jan 13, 2019 20:29
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Zipperelli. posted:So does the gov't shutdown affect air travel somehow? How does this work for the TSA? Do they have to work and just not get paid? They're working without pay. For now stuff is proceeding more or less as normal but that might fall apart at any time really.
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Jan 13, 2019 20:30
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Wow. That's so lovely. I wish I could say gently caress that, walk away from that awful job and go work somewhere where you can actually collect a paycheck, but I also know it's nowhere near that easy. Such a bad situation.
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Jan 13, 2019 20:35
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Hollismason posted:I honestly don't think Trump is gonna give in. I think he's at this point stuck. Like if he capitulates then he disappoints his core base so I just don't think he's going to do that. yeah, i think this might go into February if not longer. because trump realizes he loses once the government opens outside forcing the Dems to come to the table which won't happen since he hasn't made any genuine concessions or offers(because in his mind, that would be a loss.)
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Jan 13, 2019 20:43
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah, i think this might go into February if not longer. because trump realizes he loses once the government opens outside forcing the Dems to come to the table which won't happen since he hasn't made any genuine concessions or offers(because in his mind, that would be a loss.) once we're into february food stamps and section 8 will stop paying out, and we'll be coming up on six weeks without pay. there will be riots at that point, and probably a tremendous market crash. a bunch of companies rely on safety net spending. i don't know how this all ends, but if it really goes on that long it's going to be awful.
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Jan 13, 2019 20:49
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fool_of_sound posted:once we're into february food stamps and section 8 will stop paying out, and we'll be coming up on six weeks without pay. there will be riots at that point, and probably a tremendous market crash. a bunch of companies rely on safety net spending. i don't know how this all ends, but if it really goes on that long it's going to be awful. Walmart is going to get hit HARD when SNAP gives out.
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Jan 13, 2019 21:04
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CBP is from what I see is being maybe "surly" would be the right word for it, due to the shutdown.
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Jan 13, 2019 21:49
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IIRC, states are to issue February benefits by Jan 20, and then /shrug.
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Jan 13, 2019 21:51
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luxury handset posted:that is exactly what we currently have but the big wet president wants an actual physical wall because he is a child A friend of mine, a herpetology professor, posted a story on Facebook about a time he was looking for snakes near the border. Every time they stopped the vehicle to get out and look, within minutes border patrol was there to see what they were doing. It's amazing how incredibly stupid the wall is, especially since what's already in place is much more effective than it would be.
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Jan 13, 2019 21:59
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Oh so is that why CBP kills snakes?
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Jan 13, 2019 22:14
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Hollismason posted:I honestly don't think Trump is gonna give in. I think he's at this point stuck. Like if he capitulates then he disappoints his core base so I just don't think he's going to do that. I think this is the issue. The border wall is a joke and the Dems know that, very little illegal immigration, terrorism watchlist people, and drugs enter overland via border crossings like that. I suspect Trump could pretty easily persuade the Dems if he'd offer enough in exchange. But, Trump is well known for believing there's no such thing as a win-win: in his book (literally) you're either ripping people off or you're the one getting ripped off, so he has no sense of compromise whatsoever. The wall also has a huge symbolic importance to his base and is his signature campaign promise. The consequences are going to be interesting to watch, but I wish I wasn't stuck in the US to see how this plays out.
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Jan 14, 2019 00:15
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I don't know that there's a way out that doesn't involve veto-proof majorities in the House and Senate for funding laws, at this point. Or accelerated impeachment proceedings, which would require similar majorities (although you only need a simple majority in the House for that, I think).
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Jan 14, 2019 00:16
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I honestly don't know what will happen when SNAP benefit do not go out. Its the thing that worries me the most.
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Jan 14, 2019 01:20
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Relentless posted:Walmart is going to get hit HARD when SNAP gives out. You know that part half way in Dawn of the Dead where the biker gangs invades the mall. That will be malls across the US in about a month or two.
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Jan 14, 2019 01:27
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If SNAP benefits don't go out, a lot of children and elderly people are going to die. I really loving hope it doesn't come to that.
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Jan 14, 2019 01:29
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Do we have absolute confirmation that SNAP is safe through 2/28?
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Jan 14, 2019 01:37
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mdemone posted:Do we have absolute confirmation that SNAP is safe through 2/28? No. I mean they "say" that they have the money to send out benefits but like all the staff is uh not there? Like right now a lot of data services are down because of this because you know. People who work at those places aren't working.
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Jan 14, 2019 01:38
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https://twitter.com/gelles/status/1084600458050588674
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Jan 14, 2019 02:14
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good thing that isn't a major airport terminal or anything
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Jan 14, 2019 02:20
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gently caress I hope MDW stays open until after tomorrow. 
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Jan 14, 2019 02:22
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Absurd Alhazred posted:I don't know that there's a way out that doesn't involve veto-proof majorities in the House and Senate for funding laws, at this point. Or accelerated impeachment proceedings, which would require similar majorities (although you only need a simple majority in the House for that, I think). Really, it's going to be this. It's possible that Trump will go for the emergency declaration, but too many people may have tipped their hand that doing that means no wall. And that's the thing: there is no master plan or harsh negotiation tactics or anything like that here. This literally comes down to Trump thinks building a wall will make him important and it doesn't even occur to him that the government shutdown might affect things. He's not locked in on the wall as a political maneuver, he's locked in because he's got the mentality of a three-year-old who has to get his way and has no awareness of anything past that. He's never going to compromise on that not because it'll hurt him with his base but because he doesn't give a poo poo about any of the consequences for not backing down. And that's why it's going to take a veto proof resolution going through congress to finish this. McConnell's the one who's frozen by the politics and who'll have to deal with political consequences if they back down. He's the one who's searching for a face saving out and trying to get Trump to go along with it. He's betting on the democrats not receiving spine transplants. The real fun is going to be when congress does pass funding bills that are veto proof. Trump can still sit on them for two weeks out of sheer spite.
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Jan 14, 2019 05:24
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Random Stranger posted:
Oh goddammit, that's going to happen isn't it? McConnell breaks when the airports close and Trump doesn't even budge, just sits on his rear end for two weeks to make everyone else suffer in a giant national tantrum.
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Jan 14, 2019 06:25
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Oh goddammit, that's going to happen isn't it? McConnells not coming out of his shell until his caucus chucks him in a pot of boiling water.
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Jan 14, 2019 06:44
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Cythereal posted:I think this is the issue. The border wall is a joke and the Dems know that, very little illegal immigration, terrorism watchlist people, and drugs enter overland via border crossings like that. I suspect Trump could pretty easily persuade the Dems if he'd offer enough in exchange... The wall also has a huge symbolic importance to his base and is his signature campaign promise. Second, the wall isn't symbolic just to Trump's base. If the wall was just a joke, well, we've appropriated 5.6 billion dollars for far stupider things. The Dems are stonewalling because, to their base, the wall is symbolic of Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric and demonization of poor foreigners, and any money directed towards it constitutes an acceptance if not endorsement of that rhetoric. They've assessed that their base wants them to keep Trump from winning on this issue, and that the base (and enough independents) won't blame them for the shutdown. The democratic party doesn't seem to have a coherent immigration policy at this point, and most of the big asks they would want in exchange (blanket amnesty for illegal immigrants, "abolishing ICE") don't have a broad consensus behind them and couldn't survive a republican senate under McConnell, but they can all agree they want Trump to lose on the wall.
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Jan 14, 2019 06:55
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Oh goddammit, that's going to happen isn't it? I'm half way sure that trump left the national parks open without staffing because someone told him they would get hosed up if he did so.
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Jan 14, 2019 07:21
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Nah. During the 2013 shutdown, every news org was running footage of visitors being turned away from NPS units. It became such a potent symbol that House Republicans dragged the head of NPS in to try to get him to say that the closure was done for political reasons on the orders of Obama. The administration is letting jackasses drive ATVs through Joshua Tree for the same reason that they're forcing the IRS to stay open in order to (probably illegally) issue tax refunds: they want to minimize the pain of a shutdown they risk being blamed for.
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Jan 14, 2019 07:36
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DR, you're putting way too much thought into Trump's motivation for his wall. He's a toddler who wants the piece of candy the grocery store purposely put at toddler height. Currently, he's crying those fake tears toddlers do during full meltdown. If you've ever seen it in person you know what I mean. Sure the candy costs like 0.50 but then the toddler gets control until like it sticks a fork in a light socket or something. Fox News and the other Nazis like Miller are the grocery store setting up the meltdown.
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Jan 14, 2019 07:43
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Mustached Demon posted:DR, you're putting way too much thought into Trump's motivation for his wall. He's a toddler who wants the piece of candy the grocery store purposely put at toddler height. Currently, he's crying those fake tears toddlers do during full meltdown. If you've ever seen it in person you know what I mean. Sure the candy costs like 0.50 but then the toddler gets control until like it sticks a fork in a light socket or something. I don't think loving things up for others out of spite requires much thought.
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Jan 14, 2019 07:49
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This is literal insanity. I feel like they're trying to gaslight us. Of all the states on that list, Florida was the closest in 2018. How is it not the definition of a swing state?
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Jan 14, 2019 14:32
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Charlz Guybon posted:This is literal insanity. I feel like they're trying to gaslight us. Except for maybe Ohio, other state moved towards the Democrats, and in some districts quite substantially. Meanwhile, The margins in Florida stayed relatively close to 2016 despite an infusion of cash and attention.
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Jan 14, 2019 15:01
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Rednik posted:Except for maybe Ohio, other state moved towards the Democrats, and in some districts quite substantially. Meanwhile, The margins in Florida stayed relatively close to 2016 despite an infusion of cash and attention. Also: " According to U.S. Census data released in March 2018, The Villages was the 10th in the annual list of fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United States." The margins are small, but as long as Florida keeps intaking old conservatives who always vote at a high rate, and also specifically putting them in the middle of rural Florida where "BUY TRUMP MERCH!!!" booths litter every single flea market to create a huge feedback loop of bullshit, the GOP will retain a razor thin hold on the state for the foreseeable future. The plus side for the Wisconsins, Michigans, and Pennsylvanias of the world, though, is that the olds are leaving those states to move to Florida, so my dumb state is like a giant red sponge drawing in everyone else's crap voters.
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Jan 14, 2019 15:19
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xeria posted:Also: " According to U.S. Census data released in March 2018, The Villages was the 10th in the annual list of fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United States." The margins are small, but as long as Florida keeps intaking old conservatives who always vote at a high rate, and also specifically putting them in the middle of rural Florida where "BUY TRUMP MERCH!!!" booths litter every single flea market to create a huge feedback loop of bullshit, the GOP will retain a razor thin hold on the state for the foreseeable future. Exactly—central Florida is MAGAland and they’re doubling down. Whatever demographic changes are occurring in the big Metro areas can be undone by shifts in the rest of the state. Generation Pickleball (also referenced in a legendary Chapo Trap House episode) remains the only good “Trump Country” article. Kudos to Politico for doing what WaPo and NYT were too lazy to do.  https://www.politico.com/states/flo...rrowland-472906
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Jan 14, 2019 15:39
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Charlz Guybon posted:This is literal insanity. I feel like they're trying to gaslight us. That is actually what Hugh Hewitt does. He publishes a column every day about how what happened yesterday was Good News For Republicans no matter how insane you need to be to think that. However, the thing is that Florida should not have been close: 2018 was a D wave election, Florida is a "swing state", so it should have been an easy D hold. That it was not suggests it's moving to the right, fast. If a state goes against you, even narrowly, in a wave election it's not a swing state and that's a real problem. Hugh Hewitt's take on that is garbage, but the NYT article it references is not.
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Jan 14, 2019 16:28
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And to complicate matters immensely, re-enfranchisement is going to make modeling Florida impossible for at least two cycles.
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Jan 14, 2019 16:30
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That golf cart costs as much as regular car.
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Jan 14, 2019 16:35
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