|
AGGGGH BEES posted:https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-venezuela-idUKKCN1P60FN Yikes, with friends like these...
|
#
?
Jan 12, 2019 21:10
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 18:28 |
|
|
Absurd Alhazred posted:Yikes, with friends like these... Yeah it sucks rear end that while Venezuela's been melting down for years now the two biggest countries in the hemisphere veered wildly to the right and elected guys who will have no interest in ensuring a democratic landing for post-Maduro Venezuela. Regime sympathizers have been saying the only alternative to PSUV is the far right, and while I don't think that's necessarily true, letting things get this bad for so long does seem to have increased the likelihood of that happening. Creating such a mess that what you leave behind might be even worse than you is definitely part of the dictator playbook, so Maduro may have done at least one thing right.
|
|
#
?
Jan 12, 2019 22:24
|
|
|
Maduro behaves indistinguishably from a far right dictator in the first place tho.
|
|
#
?
Jan 12, 2019 22:34
|
|
|
LeoMarr posted:Is this a significant enough event to setoff any sort of chain recognition? LOL nope
|
|
#
?
Jan 12, 2019 23:46
|
|
|
"Venezuela opposition plans incentives for officers who disavow Maduro" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-military-idUSKCN1P52HH "Brazil says it recognizes Venezuelan opposition leader as president" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-venezuela-idUSKCN1P60FJ Watch as Trump and Bolsonaro back a coup in Venezuela and this thread cheers for it.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 16:07
|
|
|
Juan Guaido just got arrested by SEBIN agents as he was driving with his wife towards La Guaira. I've got video. https://twitter.com/joseolivaresm/status/1084480354222776321 Better start stretching Bob, I'm not sure what kind of mental gymnastics will suffice to justify the illicit imprisonment of every opponent Maduro has.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:06
|
|
|
Why hasn't Trump declared an interventionist war already? You'd think he'd have by now.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:20
|
|
|
Grouchio posted:Why hasn't Trump declared an interventionist war already? You'd think he'd have by now. he keeps asking other leaders of south american countries if he should and being shocked when they tell him no please don't
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:22
|
|
|
Obviously, they're all financed by western imperialists. This is all just a prelude to a US-Brazil led coup, so SEBIN should be commende for their excellent counter-intelligence efforts. How do I know this? Easy - chavizmo enjoys overwhelming popular favor among the Venezuelan proletariat, so any opposition figure is either an elite or a foreign agent. Venezuela is the vanguard of the international socialist revolution, so we, the goons of SA must come to its defence at any opportunity, no matter how bad the conditions inside the country itself, brought about by the economic war waged by western imperialists against it. Anyway, want to pay for my trip to Venezuela to prove me wrong on the internet?
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:26
|
|
|
Guaido has been released, but the SEBIN also arrested two journalists (Osmary Hernandez from CNN en Espanol and Beatriz Adrian from Caracol Radio), and they're still in custody. They were covering Guaido's detention when they were arrested. LeoMarr posted:Is this a significant enough event to setoff any sort of chain recognition? There was a lot of confusion following Guaido's statement on Thursday because he made it in the most verbose, roundabout and confusing way imaginable. I had a really hard time translating the Spanish into English for my blog. You had to read between the lines to get that he was saying that he was taking on the role of interim President of the Republic pending new elections. As you can imagine, this is a huge deal because having two people claiming to be president makes matters a bit complicated to say the least. As far as I'm aware Brazil is the only country who's recognized Guaido as president. I think this is partially due to how confused his announcement was. I think that if he'd made a clear and unequivocal announcement saying, "I'm interim president and this is a roadmap for the next weeks and months", then maybe more countries would thrown their support behind him. EDIT: Grouchio posted:Why hasn't Trump declared an interventionist war already? You'd think he'd have by now. Trump is a monster and I'm terrified that he'd do something like this as a distraction. I think that it'd be the single most catastrophic thing that could happen to the country. Now that the equally monstrous Bolsonaro is in power in Brazil, the scenario is more likely, I think. One of the two journalists who was arrested (Beatriz Adrian) was live on the air when she got dragged away from the SEBIN: https://twitter.com/ReporteYa/status/1084487681491521536 EDIT 2: The two journalists have been released. EDIT 3: Contrary to earlier reports, Voluntad Popular (Guaido's party) is saying that they have not confirmed his detention. They say that "there was only a phone call", which sounds like someone made a call saying that Guaido had been released, but so far no one has actually seen him free. https://twitter.com/SergioVergaraG/status/1084492555230822400 EDIT 4: Guaido's wife has just confirmed that he's been released and that she is with him now: https://twitter.com/FabiiRosales/status/1084496213662224384 Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Jan 13, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 17:36
|
|
|
Bob le Moche posted:"Brazil says it recognizes Venezuelan opposition leader as president" Is there any basis for this? Is there any reason to actually think this guy won the election instead of Maduro? These are genuine questions I have no idea.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:22
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:Is there any basis for this? Is there any reason to actually think this guy won the election instead of Maduro? These are genuine questions I have no idea. It's not that he won the election. It's that the election Maduro used for his re-election is spurious at best. They're basically saying he abandoned his post by refusing to hold free elections, and according to the constitution, in this scenario the President of the National Assembly becomes president and must call for new elections. Juan Guaido is the current President of the National Assembly, three people have held that post before: Henry Ramos Allup, Julio Borges, Omar Barboza. The parliamentary elections of 2015 are the last elections to be considered to have been fair and transparent by most international observers, therefore the claim to power of the National Assembly is more legitimate than Maduro's, who is now taking possession of the presidency after last year's presidential elections, in which he had no actual opponents. fnox fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Jan 13, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:35
|
|
|
fnox posted:It's not that he won the election. It's that the election Maduro used for his re-election is spurious at best. They're basically saying he abandoned his post by refusing to hold free elections, and according to the constitution, in this scenario the President of the National Assembly becomes president and must call for new elections. Juan Guaido is the current President of the National Assembly, three people have held that post before: Henry Ramos Allup, Julio Borges, Omar Barboza. Or to put it in other words, Maduro's re-election was so tainted that he has no legitimate democratic claim to the presidency (and because the election was such a farce none of the results are legitimate because all serious opposition candidates were disqualified - you can't just recognize the runner-up); ergo the presidency is vacant. Imagine in the United States if the Presidential election was completely illegitimate such that nobody had a credible claim on the Presidency. Not something like the Trump/Clinton election where you could argue that Trump illegitimately won but the implication is that Clinton won instead. Instead, imagine if Trump ran in 2020 but imprisoned every Demcoratic politician who might run but allowed the Constitution Party, Libertarian Party, and some other no-name third party candidates running. If that election's not legitimate you don't just let the libertarian candidate become President instead. You would have a strong constitutional argument that the Speaker (who becomes President when there is no President or VP) was the legitimate President as long as they were legitimately elected (and the rest of the House elections were legit), even if they were not a candidate in the Presidential elections. evilweasel fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Jan 13, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 18:56
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:Imagine in the United States if the Presidential election was completely illegitimate evilweasel posted:Imagine if Trump ran in 2020 but imprisoned every Democratic politician who might run
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:21
|
|
|
This thread is about Venezuela. That said, even if I accept that justification at face value, I also think we should be suspicious of anything the newly empowered fascist government of Brazil wants. Edit: to be clear, that explanation makes sense to me on paper. Lightning Knight fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Jan 13, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:30
|
|
|
Bob le Moche posted:In other words, imagine if the democratic party represented class interests that were in any way opposed to those that Trump represents. I think we can all agree that the PSUV has done an incredibly poor job of representing any sort of proletarian interests in the 2010s.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:35
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:This thread is about Venezuela. I keep wondering, how does the Venezuelan government not seem fascist to leftists? Like, how do you justify having what is effectively a one-party military dictatorship that has displaced millions running Venezuela? You're all terrified of what Bolsonaro can do to personal freedoms, look at what loving Maduro has done. The current state of Venezuelan society IS the neoliberal nightmare, those who earn dollars get to eat everyone else is living off the scraps, where you can find expensive cuts of meat flown in straight from New York butchers but you can't find one loving morsel of locally sourced beef because the government has destroyed every productive element of the economy.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:45
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:This thread is about Venezuela. Of course everyone should be suspicious of Bolsonaro, but his actions here should not surprise anyone. Venezuelan migrants are a part of what put Bolsonaro into power in the first place. He needs to say something to appear tough on the issue but also doesn't want to really do anything because he wants to keep the issue around. His adherents (correctly) believe that if Maduro were out then many of the Venezuelans would go back but just saying Maduro is illegitimate does gently caress all. This is as bog standard as it gets in global politics.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 19:45
|
|
|
fnox posted:I keep wondering, how does the Venezuelan government not seem fascist to leftists? Like, how do you justify having what is effectively a one-party military dictatorship that has displaced millions running Venezuela? You're all terrified of what Bolsonaro can do to personal freedoms, look at what loving Maduro has done. The current state of Venezuelan society IS the neoliberal nightmare, those who earn dollars get to eat everyone else is living off the scraps, where you can find expensive cuts of meat flown in straight from New York butchers but you can't find one loving morsel of locally sourced beef because the government has destroyed every productive element of the economy. I don’t think Maduro is good, I just also don’t think international military intervention is likely to improve the situation. I would like to know more about opposition guy. What does he stand for?
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 20:10
|
|
|
fnox posted:I keep wondering, how does the Venezuelan government not seem fascist to leftists? Like, how do you justify having what is effectively a one-party military dictatorship that has displaced millions running Venezuela? You're all terrified of what Bolsonaro can do to personal freedoms, look at what loving Maduro has done. The current state of Venezuelan society IS the neoliberal nightmare, those who earn dollars get to eat everyone else is living off the scraps, where you can find expensive cuts of meat flown in straight from New York butchers but you can't find one loving morsel of locally sourced beef because the government has destroyed every productive element of the economy. Much like with China, as long as they say that they're Communist / Socialist governments you can get a lot of cover from tankies despite the fact that you're running a totalitarian nightmare state.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 20:18
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:I don’t think Maduro is good, I just also don’t think international military intervention is likely to improve the situation. He's from Leopoldo Lopez party, which is slightly to the left of center. In any case, even if he manages to get widespread recognition as the legitimate president, the constitution says he needs to call to elections in 30 days if I remember correctly. He's not really a well-known name in Venezuelan politics aside from the role he's playing now so I can't imagine they'd want to run him as a candidate in that hypothetical. However, most of the well-known opposition guys have hosed up so hard that it's hard to imagine they'll want to run again, in any case.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 20:32
|
|
|
Labradoodle posted:He's from Leopoldo Lopez party, which is slightly to the left of center. In any case, even if he manages to get widespread recognition as the legitimate president, the constitution says he needs to call to elections in 30 days if I remember correctly. He's not really a well-known name in Venezuelan politics aside from the role he's playing now so I can't imagine they'd want to run him as a candidate in that hypothetical. However, most of the well-known opposition guys have hosed up so hard that it's hard to imagine they'll want to run again, in any case. It's not like any election he calls is going to actually happen.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 20:34
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:Trump is a monster and I'm terrified that he'd do something like this as a distraction. I think that it'd be the single most catastrophic thing that could happen to the country. Now that the equally monstrous Bolsonaro is in power in Brazil, the scenario is more likely, I think.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 20:40
|
|
|
It's possible he thinks there's enough internal pressure within the PSUV for Maduro to step down that this is the right time to present a constitutional out by which that could happen without poo poo really cooking off. They push everything onto Maduro and scuttle off into the night.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 20:48
|
|
|
Feinne posted:It's possible he thinks there's enough internal pressure within the PSUV for Maduro to step down that this is the right time to present a constitutional out by which that could happen without poo poo really cooking off. They push everything onto Maduro and scuttle off into the night. Betting on a dictator, or dictator wannabe, to give up power is not a bet I would make. I expect Maduro will respond with a declaration that half the PSUV are traitors and an escalation of political violence.
|
|
#
?
Jan 13, 2019 23:14
|
|
|
Grapplejack posted:Much like with China, as long as they say that they're Communist / Socialist governments you can get a lot of cover from tankies despite the fact that you're running a totalitarian nightmare state. As opposed to non-socialist governments such as Iran, Yemen, or Afghanistan, where then presumably these "tankies" are supportive of US-backed regime change operations and military interventions? What are even these "tankies" supposed to be in your strawmanning imagination?
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 00:02
|
|
|
Xae posted:Betting on a dictator, or dictator wannabe, to give up power is not a bet I would make. I think he’s saying the rest of the government would use it as a pretext to abandon him, not that he’d go along with this plan.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 00:16
|
|
|
Bob le Moche posted:As opposed to non-socialist governments such as Iran, Yemen, or Afghanistan, where then presumably these "tankies" are supportive of US-backed regime change operations and military interventions? What are even these "tankies" supposed to be in your strawmanning imagination? Iran is more socialist than you realize. The Islamic government wants the state to control the means of production, in other words socialism. State control of the means of production has been gradually diminishing due to pressure on the Islamic government, so it is less socialist now than back in the 80s or 90s. Socialism is not inherently right or left wing. The most important historical socialist government, that of the Soviet Union was left wing and most socialist governments have been to varying degrees inspired by the Soviet Union so most people make this mistake.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 00:24
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:I think he’s saying the rest of the government would use it as a pretext to abandon him, not that he’d go along with this plan. Yeah no way Maduro steps down willingly but if the rest of the PSUV thinks they can shuffle all the blame onto him and aww shucks their way out of any real consequences they might go for that. I mean the country's pretty hosed so there's a grim logic to letting the opposition take over, they of course fail to do the impossible, and then the PSUV crawls back out into the light saying 'see, these guys couldn't do anything, you should give us a chance again because if we hadn't been stabbed in the back by that traitor Maduro we would have saved the country years ago'.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 01:14
|
|
|
Bob le Moche posted:As opposed to non-socialist governments such as Iran, Yemen, or Afghanistan, where then presumably these "tankies" are supportive of US-backed regime change operations and military interventions? What are even these "tankies" supposed to be in your strawmanning imagination? oh so you really are a neoliberal infiltrator, slandering the Revolutionary Islamic Republic of Iran for the benefit of the imperialists in what fuckin' way is Iran not socialist DoctorStrangelove posted:Iran is more socialist than you realize. The Islamic government wants the state to control the means of production, in other words socialism. State control of the means of production has been gradually diminishing due to pressure on the Islamic government, so it is less socialist now than back in the 80s or 90s. Socialism is not inherently right or left wing. The most important historical socialist government, that of the Soviet Union was left wing and most socialist governments have been to varying degrees inspired by the Soviet Union so most people make this mistake. https://www.mintpressnews.com/what-privatization-irans-unique-socialist-economy/244887/ Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 01:28 on Jan 14, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 01:24
|
|
|
Bolsonaro is a fascist shitbag but I'm not sure I see the incentive for Brazil to intervene militarily in Venezuela; it's not like there's much danger of anybody in the region being inspired by Maduro's revolutionary success and an invasion would just make the refugee problem worse.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 02:12
|
|
|
Fallen Hamprince posted:Bolsonaro is a fascist shitbag but I'm not sure I see the incentive for Brazil to intervene militarily in Venezuela; it's not like there's much danger of anybody in the region being inspired by Maduro's revolutionary success and an invasion would just make the refugee problem worse. As someone who was in the Brazilian Army years ago I'm sure that the worst idea ever. Brazil's government not recognizing Maduro's presidency is the most that gonna happen. Bolsonaro may even agree with military intervention but the military itself don't, and that's a guaranteed coup d'etat.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 02:42
|
|
|
Fallen Hamprince posted:Bolsonaro is a fascist shitbag but I'm not sure I see the incentive for Brazil to intervene militarily in Venezuela; it's not like there's much danger of anybody in the region being inspired by Maduro's revolutionary success and an invasion would just make the refugee problem worse. Bolsonaro doesn't have to actually invade Venezuela to become a real thorn in Maduro's side. Now that he's denounced Maduro's government as illegitimate, why he could make a bit of office space in Pacaraima available for the representatives of the legitimate President. It's such a remote border, it would be easy for Bolsonaro to just look the other way if a few hundred or thousand refugees set up a camp or two from which they could plan and train and prepare for making Maduro leave the Presidency, one way or another. Relatedly, on Thursday, 'Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called Guaidó to congratulate him on his election victory last week and to reinforce U.S. commitment to “the re-establishment of democracy in Venezuela” amid "Maduro's illegitimate usurpation of power," according to a State Department release.' National Security adviser John Bolton has also been rather explicit recently in calling Maduro's rule illegitimate. If Brazil is willing to look the other way I'm sure Bolton could find large volumes of material assistance to be funneled north across the border to those looking to re-establish democracy. Squalid fucked around with this message at 04:48 on Jan 14, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 04:42
|
|
|
Labradoodle posted:He's from Leopoldo Lopez party, which is slightly to the left of center. In any case, even if he manages to get widespread recognition as the legitimate president, the constitution says he needs to call to elections in 30 days if I remember correctly. He's not really a well-known name in Venezuelan politics aside from the role he's playing now so I can't imagine they'd want to run him as a candidate in that hypothetical. However, most of the well-known opposition guys have hosed up so hard that it's hard to imagine they'll want to run again, in any case. Interesting. What do you mean by the opposition guys have hosed up so hard?
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 04:44
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:Interesting. The opposition keeps tripping over their own dicks with mealy-mouth bullshit because they're a bunch of parties that don't agree on much except that Maduro is a huge piece of poo poo, and at least a few of their leaders seemed to actually be working with the PSUV against the rest of the opposition because they're more comfortable jobbing as fake opposition than actually governing. And the people who do have credibility have a bad habit of ending up in prison because being a credible and competent member of the opposition leadership might as well be a crime in Venezuela.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 05:11
|
|
|
Feinne posted:The opposition keeps tripping over their own dicks with mealy-mouth bullshit because they're a bunch of parties that don't agree on much except that Maduro is a huge piece of poo poo, and at least a few of their leaders seemed to actually be working with the PSUV against the rest of the opposition because they're more comfortable jobbing as fake opposition than actually governing. And the people who do have credibility have a bad habit of ending up in prison because being a credible and competent member of the opposition leadership might as well be a crime in Venezuela. Oh. That’s unfortunate. My understanding is that Venezuela’s primary issue is the economy didn’t handle the drop in oil prices well. Is there even anything the PSUV could do about that right now? I’m assuming Maduro has no plans to step down voluntarily.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 05:16
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:Oh. That’s unfortunate. That's one issue, but there's three other big ones. The first is that Venezuela implemented non-subsidized price ceilings for many staple goods that were unsustainable, the second is that they failed to actually maintain the oil infrastructure, resulting in massive drops in production. The third is the currency scheme, but I don't really want to be the one to explain that.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 05:18
|
|
|
wdarkk posted:That's one issue, but there's three other big ones. The first is that Venezuela implemented non-subsidized price ceilings for many staple goods that were unsustainable, the second is that they failed to actually maintain the oil infrastructure, resulting in massive drops in production. The third is the currency scheme, but I don't really want to be the one to explain that. I see... so, what do they do about it? I mean in general, regardless of who is in charge, what is the solution? Is there a solution?
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 05:20
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:I see... so, what do they do about it? The first step is admitting there's a problem. Not a joke. Last time I checked, Maduro was adamant that nothing was wrong and things were not that bad. International aid might be able to stop some of the bleeding if it was allowed in.
|
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 05:24
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 18:28 |
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:Oh. That’s unfortunate. There's no quick solution to what's going on because a lot of it stems from neglect. Even if oil prices were higher the industry in VZ is falling apart because it's being managed incredibly poorly. EDIT: I agree solution step one is admitting things are hosed. Keeping the oil infrastructure working requires a lot of qualified workers, and the problem is that with the situation in Venezuela being a bit hosed right now it's hard to find people who have those qualifications internally who haven't already hosed off for places where they will be paid in actual money with value and can expect they will not be kidnapped for ransom and murdered. And it's equally hard to contract with someone outside the country who can provide that expertise because they need to provide extensive and expensive security. Feinne fucked around with this message at 05:32 on Jan 14, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 14, 2019 05:25
|
|