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Are there any moonshot geoengineering technologies that even matter if the oceans are warmer and glaciers melting faster than anticipated? My personal canary says, "Eh."
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Jan 15, 2019 13:10
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Insanite posted:Are there any moonshot geoengineering technologies that even matter if the oceans are warmer and glaciers melting faster than anticipated? Seed the clouds and suffer whatever feedback loop that kicks off.
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Jan 15, 2019 14:27
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Insanite posted:Are there any moonshot geoengineering technologies that even matter if the oceans are warmer and glaciers melting faster than anticipated? There's no shortage of reviews of different plausible geoengineering proposals, here's a semi-recent one from Nature. The quick summary is that even in the absence of unexpectedly fast warming there are no great options, so even less relevant now. Probably the best understood radiative forcing method (atmospheric sulfate aerosol injection) has major drawbacks, other methods like cloud seeding are even less well understood ie likely to blow up in our faces. Regarding carbon sequestration, the only half plausible option in the year 2019 is planting trees. Anything else not included in these reviews is probably even less realistic. The estimated price of a crazy science-fiction space sunshade is on the order of ~$10 trillion, which frankly is starting to look like a real bargain given the path we're on. Too bad it would reduce overall plant photosynthesis, although I'm guessing plants don't photosynthesize much when they're on fire either.
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Jan 15, 2019 16:28
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I regularly donate a bunch to tree planting programs, but that's more of an indulgence for sin than anything. America's just too individualistic, dumb, and conditioned to distrust government to throw down the amount of effort and money that barely mitigating climate change requires. We'll sure cry foul about China having higher total CO2 emissions (but much lower per capita), though. Maybe once Miami is gone, we might gather up enough will to tax rolling coal or something. Personally, I'm planning to sell my coastal region home and move inland before the market here collapses. It all feels rather hopeless. (There's no way this thread can't descend into utter gloominess regularly, is there?) Insanite fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Jan 15, 2019 |
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Jan 15, 2019 16:44
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Nocturtle posted:The estimated price of a crazy science-fiction space sunshade is on the order of ~$10 trillion, which frankly is starting to look like a real bargain given the path we're on. Too bad it would reduce overall plant photosynthesis, although I'm guessing plants don't photosynthesize much when they're on fire either. That's actually not all too unreasonable. Yes, it would be expensive, but it's conceivable as a last-ditch international effort. The US alone spent something like 1.1 trillion USD on the Iraq war from 2003 - 2010. Compared to the collapse of global civilization, spending ~1% of 2013 world GDP per year, for a decade, to construct an orbital shade, positively sounds like a bargain. Perhaps it could even spur investment and R&D into sustained off-planet industry in order to build up the infrastructure to complete such a megaproject. You might even sell it as a way of tapping into limitless solar energy if you could also cover the shield in solar panels or something. Of course, you would have to invest a lot into CO2 reductions, sequestration, reforestation projects, and so on, in the meantime, but the solar shield would be useful as a means of buying more time. DrSunshine fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Jan 15, 2019 |
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Jan 15, 2019 17:06
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Insanite posted:Personally, I'm planning to sell my coastal region home and move inland before the market here collapses. It all feels rather hopeless. Better get cracking then mate :P https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-idUSKCN1P42KG
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Jan 15, 2019 17:17
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I'm in New England. I'm giving it around ten years to see what's done both globally and locally before giving up. Maybe we'll get our poo poo together and Boston will Netherlandsize itself. Probably not.
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Jan 15, 2019 17:20
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:Proud of you for helping slow things down at pliocene level instead of miocene or eocene. There seem to be a lot folks who would probably agree that less bad is better than more bad, but who still make fun of people who use solar or whatever. I wonder why that is. DrSunshine posted:That's actually not all too unreasonable. Yes, it would be expensive, but it's conceivable as a last-ditch international effort. The US alone spent something like 1.1 trillion USD on the Iraq war from 2003 - 2010. Compared to the collapse of global civilization, spending ~1% of 2013 world GDP per year, for a decade, to construct an orbital shade, positively sounds like a bargain. Perhaps it could even spur investment and R&D into sustained off-planet industry in order to build up the infrastructure to complete such a megaproject. You might even sell it as a way of tapping into limitless solar energy if you could also cover the shield in solar panels or something. Of course, you would have to invest a lot into CO2 reductions, sequestration, reforestation projects, and so on, in the meantime, but the solar shield would be useful as a means of buying more time. username/post combo
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Jan 15, 2019 18:44
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i really just don't worry about domestic coastal real estate all that much, i think it will be a full decade or two behind the real problems and therefore barely a sideshow to them when the nile and the indus and the ganges and the brahmaputra have the year of concurrent crop failure, the resulting wars in asia and africa will just take vast vast swathes of business off the table for "the fortune 500" at the same time all the energy companies are going bankrupt/getting-bailedout. the rest of the world getting into some real poo poo will put us into a heavy recession if not depression around the time that our flooding problem starts to require all our insurers and real estate families to be bailed out.
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Jan 15, 2019 18:50
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like yea amtrak is done for, finito, kaput, but so is south sudan... so...
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Jan 15, 2019 18:53
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OTOH you don't want to get stuck with coastal real estate in a hurricane-prone area at a time when the economy is in the dumps.
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Jan 15, 2019 18:54
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StabbinHobo posted:i really just don't worry about domestic coastal real estate all that much, i think it will be a full decade or two behind the real problems and therefore barely a sideshow to them Please don't rain on my dream of building a nice bunker in Ontario to die in.
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Jan 15, 2019 18:56
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in a way i've given up even hating americans for their inability to reason about something in any other way than the frame of reference of real estate speculation if you enslave two or three generations in a row with the indentured servitude of 30 year mortgages it makes sense they wind up internalizing it as their values
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Jan 15, 2019 18:59
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If you buy wholesale into impending climate death and don't believe that enough can or will be done about it, trying not to be homeless or drowned in late-middle-age feels like an okay thing to consider (yo). Like, of course there will be horrendous suffering. Everyone should know that at this point. Insanite fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Jan 15, 2019 |
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Jan 15, 2019 19:03
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Insanite posted:Are there any moonshot geoengineering technologies that even matter if the oceans are warmer and glaciers melting faster than anticipated? No, because ecosystem collapse cannot be mitigated with them.
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Jan 15, 2019 19:04
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hopefully our software defined refugee camps will be advanced enough by then we can "temporarily" relocate southies to the chestnut hill country club golf course
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Jan 15, 2019 19:25
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Inshallah.
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Jan 15, 2019 19:39
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Insanite posted:If you buy wholesale into impending climate death and don't believe that enough can or will be done about it, trying not to be homeless or drowned in late-middle-age feels like an okay thing to consider (yo). I think most people in their 20s and 30s are thinking about adaptation in the wrong way. Non liquid assets are just a ball and chain. Get rid of all of them that aren't necessities. Get away from the coast. Get in shape. Learn first aid. Learn your local biome. Invest in your local community and get active in public works so you have a network of like minded people. Use Cape Town and the long incoming list of drought and famine events as case studies to research adaptation. Most people don't really have a good understanding of how things will get worse on a decadal time scale. Resilient communities will come out fine. Many unprepared people who otherwise enjoyed a good standard of living will be unprepared and immiserated.
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Jan 15, 2019 21:45
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:I think most people in their 20s and 30s are thinking about adaptation in the wrong way. Non liquid assets are just a ball and chain. Get rid of all of them that aren't necessities. Get away from the coast. Get in shape. Learn first aid. Learn your local biome. Invest in your local community and get active in public works so you have a network of like minded people. Use Cape Town and the long incoming list of drought and famine events as case studies to research adaptation. Is FI/RE a bad idea or a good idea given the realities?
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Jan 15, 2019 21:55
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DrSunshine posted:Is FI/RE a bad idea or a good idea given the realities? Most versions of FIRE hinge upon a 4% rate of withdrawal being possible in perpetuity, which seems optimistic considering the economic headwinds the planet is likely to face
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Jan 15, 2019 22:14
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DrSunshine posted:Is FI/RE a bad idea or a good idea given the realities? I think it's more important to have as much liquid assets as possible to keep your options open for when you need it. The "FIRE" types mostly seem like self indulgent shitheads that want to be able to spend more time curating their Instagram accounts and revelling in the ennui that their life of privilege has afforded them while operating under the assumption that their 2018 portfolio growth will carry on in perpetuity. If you're in a spot to let your income carry you for 20-30 years and you'd rather just do social services though, by all means go for it imo. Regardless there's always a lot of variance in outcomes. Maybe we get AOC 2024 and actually hit the SR15 targets by 2030. Assuming that currency will be meaningless by X date ignores the full distribution of outcomes.
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Jan 15, 2019 22:14
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Well, my current goal - which I'm roughly on track for - is FIRE in about 15 years, so that I can devote the rest of my time to writing, maybe science communication, going back to school, and activism/mitigation/adaptation work. It's so that I can devote myself full time to things that I think are meaningful and productive rather than toiling for The Man until I expire.
DrSunshine fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Jan 15, 2019 |
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Jan 15, 2019 22:35
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:I think most people in their 20s and 30s are thinking about adaptation in the wrong way. Non liquid assets are just a ball and chain. Get rid of all of them that aren't necessities. Get away from the coast. Get in shape. Learn first aid. Learn your local biome. Invest in your local community and get active in public works so you have a network of like minded people. Use Cape Town and the long incoming list of drought and famine events as case studies to research adaptation. I investigated my local biome and the rats and cockroaches fighting over curbside garbage will inform my own adaptation strategy going forward. edit: Further investigation uncovered a LOT of asbestos. Nocturtle fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Jan 15, 2019 |
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Jan 15, 2019 22:52
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:I think most people in their 20s and 30s are thinking about adaptation in the wrong way. Non liquid assets are just a ball and chain. Get rid of all of them that aren't necessities. Get away from the coast. Get in shape. Learn first aid. Learn your local biome. Invest in your local community and get active in public works so you have a network of like minded people. Use Cape Town and the long incoming list of drought and famine events as case studies to research adaptation. This is the advice I try to give people every time they talk about buying a remote plot of land to "survive" on. That'll end ya just as bad as being in a coastal city will, a strong and supportive community is the key to riding out the next few decades. Unfortunately very hard to find in the west these days thanks to how much our social fabric has decayed.
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Jan 15, 2019 23:59
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So, go inland, but not particularly far inland, and not so far away from other people that you're expanding your carbon footprint by forsaking density. Then, go bowling and birdwatching with people.
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Jan 16, 2019 00:54
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Flyover states gonna become fly to states real quick because they have established infrastructure. Cities where you can afford to live closeish to the city core are ideal. Lol if you flee coastal cities and buy a house in the middle of loving nowhere or some bullshit hard to service suburb that's most likely going to be a slum as soon as personal vehicle use can no longer be tolerated as the majority of the populations primary mode of transportation.
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Jan 16, 2019 01:09
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Rime posted:This is the advice I try to give people every time they talk about buying a remote plot of land to "survive" on. That'll end ya just as bad as being in a coastal city will, a strong and supportive community is the key to riding out the next few decades. Honestly, I think it's probably enough to just avoid setting up roots in traditional suburbs. The vast majority of suburban "communities" have absolutely no ability to be self-sufficient over any kind of long timescale. I don't believe there's any chance of society in western countries completely breaking down, but that doesn't mean that a lot of communities won't fall apart when the federal and state governments suddenly have to start making hard funding decisions. Lots of suburbs are going to end up looking like dying rural towns do today.
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Jan 16, 2019 01:13
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My current trajectory is FIRE with in 10 years so that instead of working some useless IT job, I can instead dedicate my time to volunteer stuff split somewhat between fostering kids / homeless help / local city/state/national park stuff. I really enjoy doing it when I can right now but a full time job + doing that stuff has a tendency to drive my depression off rails into the deepend. I live in the city and I actually do want to get to know my neighbors ... especially the ones with the chickens and bees! 
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Jan 16, 2019 01:14
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Jesus loving christ people I thought we weren't supposed to doomsay in here. If you want to do that talk to your therapist. Insanite posted:Please don't rain on my dream of building a nice bunker in Ontario to die in.
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Jan 16, 2019 01:14
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You're discounting the brutality of the future American invasion of Canada.
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Jan 16, 2019 01:16
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Grouchio posted:Jesus loving christ people I thought we weren't supposed to doomsay in here. No one here is doomsaying, though. If you are legitimately worried about climate change affecting your life on a personal level, then the best advice is to reduce expenses, become more self-sufficient, avoid establishing long term roots in vulnerable/disconnected areas, and basically behave as if you need to prepare for a period of extended bad economic times. Those are pretty mild suggestions and that's all that people are really talking about here.
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Jan 16, 2019 01:21
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Grouchio posted:Jesus loving christ people I thought we weren't supposed to doomsay in here. Expecting transient or permanent failures of our JIT logistics to supply food or water as early as the 2030s isn't doomsaying. Not sure what else you're tilting at windmills about this time. Also when you talk about water budgets of inland freshwater lakes you also need to consider things like evapotranspiration and precipitation rates. iirc most of the great lakes are expected to decrease in volume under a BAU regime. Aggressive changes in either direction are harder to adapt to.
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Jan 16, 2019 01:29
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Insanite posted:Are there any moonshot geoengineering technologies that even matter if the oceans are warmer and glaciers melting faster than anticipated? Let's genetically engineer some super-algae to seed in the global oceans that can fix even more carbon than normal phytoplankton. Make them toxic to normal microscopic predators, too, so they really multiply. Whatever damage they cause couldn't be that bad, right? Not compared to the alternative.
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Jan 16, 2019 02:02
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Infinite Karma posted:Let's genetically engineer some super-algae to seed in the global oceans that can fix even more carbon than normal phytoplankton. Make them toxic to normal microscopic predators, too, so they really multiply. Whatever damage they cause couldn't be that bad, right? Not compared to the alternative. this is exactly how you get euxinia and fatal amounts of hydrogen sulfide in the atmosphere
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Jan 16, 2019 02:04
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:this is exactly how you get euxinia and fatal amounts of hydrogen sulfide in the atmosphere It's the opposite, euxinia and H2S are the result of anoxia and too much CO2 (and decomposing organisms). Phytoplankton are photosynthetic, and produce oxygen.
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Jan 16, 2019 02:08
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Infinite Karma posted:Let's genetically engineer some super-algae to seed in the global oceans that can fix even more carbon than normal phytoplankton. Make them toxic to normal microscopic predators, too, so they really multiply. Whatever damage they cause couldn't be that bad, right? Not compared to the alternative. They're working on it! Science Daily posted:Scientists engineer shortcut for photosynthetic glitch, boost crop growth 40% Notorious R.I.M. posted:this is exactly how you get euxinia and fatal amounts of hydrogen sulfide in the atmosphere
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Jan 16, 2019 02:22
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Infinite Karma posted:It's the opposite, euxinia and H2S are the result of anoxia and too much CO2 (and decomposing organisms). Phytoplankton are photosynthetic, and produce oxygen. Euxinia requires a stratified ocean with an oxic surface layer and an anoxic deep ocean layer. Having a productive surface layer where phytoplankton are not eaten but instead rain into the deep ocean increases aerobic respiration via the equilibrium reaction 2CH2O + 2O2 <=> 2CO2 + 2H2O until oxygen supply is depleted in the deep ocean. With sufficient sulfate availability, sulfur reducing bacteria take over via the anaerobic pathway 2CH2O + SO4 <=> H2S + 2HCO3. While this H2S producing nutrient pump is running, obligate anaerobes can then begin climbing up the water column until photosynthetic sulfidic organisms like purple/green sulfur bacteria begin flourishing which perform photosynthesis by oxidizing H2S into elemental sulfur. This basic cycle is also covered in the reference image on the Wikipedia article for euxinia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:How_oceans_become_euxinic.png In the absence of sufficient sulfur you'll instead just get a ferruginous anoxic environment in the deep ocean, and I know too little about them to make any claims about how they work. This stratification requirement is why we also worry about slowdown of vertical mixing in the ocean via slowdown of the thermohaline circulation and in particular the Atlantic meridional overturning current portion of it. This cycle which results in sustained euxinia has been hypothesized as a cause of the permian-triassic mass extinction where atmospheric H2S levels are responsible both for direct toxicity to aerobic life as well as rapid depletion of the ozone layer. If you're interested in a deeper overview of hypothesized euxinia in the end Permian, I recommend this video by Peter Ward: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtHlsUDVVy0 Notorious R.I.M. fucked around with this message at 03:02 on Jan 16, 2019 |
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Jan 16, 2019 03:00
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im glad we terraformed earth so that we'd all die, what a glorious project to be a part of
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Jan 16, 2019 03:45
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From a paleoclimate perspective, sedimentary weathering has been the main knob that manages carbon drawdown (and it increases the total alkalinity of seawater as an added bonus). Unfortunately, we are loving things up on the wrong time scale compared to what it operates on and we're further inhibiting it with sulfate aerosol production lowering precipitation rates. But if I had to look at geoengineering knobs to crank way up, that's probably where I'd start. If you want to take some azolla event route to speed things up, make sure whatever you're sinking stays sunk or at least continues aerobic cycles not anaerobic ones. Making a permanent algae bloom then walking away is madness that only looks at one tiny component of the earth system.
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Jan 16, 2019 03:51
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:From a paleoclimate perspective, sedimentary weathering has been the main knob that manages carbon drawdown (and it increases the total alkalinity of seawater as an added bonus). Unfortunately, we are loving things up on the wrong time scale compared to what it operates on and we're further inhibiting it with sulfate aerosol production lowering precipitation rates. But if I had to look at geoengineering knobs to crank way up, that's probably where I'd start.
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Jan 16, 2019 04:02
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