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Who do you want to be the 2020 Democratic Nominee? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe "the liberal who fights busing" Biden |
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27 | 1.40% |
| Bernie "please don't die" Sanders |
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1017 | 52.69% |
| Cory "charter schools" Booker |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Kirsten "wall street" Gillibrand |
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24 | 1.24% |
| Kamala "truancy queen" Harris |
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59 | 3.06% |
| Julian "who?" Castro |
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7 | 0.36% |
| Tulsi "gay panic" Gabbard |
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25 | 1.30% |
| Michael "crimes crimes crimes" Avenatti |
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22 | 1.14% |
| Sherrod "discount bernie" Brown |
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21 | 1.09% |
| Amy "horrible boss" Klobuchar |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Tammy "stands for america" Duckworth |
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48 | 2.49% |
| Beto "whataburger" O'Rourke |
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32 | 1.66% |
| Elizabeth "instagram beer" Warren |
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284 | 14.72% |
| Tom "impeach please" Steyer |
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4 | 0.21% |
| Michael "soda is the devil" Bloomberg |
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9 | 0.47% |
| Joseph Stalin |
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287 | 14.87% |
| Howard "coffee republican" Schultz |
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10 | 0.52% |
Jay "nobody cares about climate change  " Inslee |
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13 | 0.67% |
| Pete "gently caress the homeless" Butt Man |
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17 | 0.88% |
| Total: | 1930 votes | ||
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Raskolnikov38 posted:yeah that does sound pretty bizarre hosed up if true! Theoretically, there's a chance we end up with President Pelosi. That'd make things weird.
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Jan 18, 2019 17:19
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Cease to Hope posted:gabbard is also another democrat who was against gay marriage and abortion until she coincidentally started having national political aspirations. there's a bunch of easily quotable stuff (admittedly from from 20ish years ago) about her railing against homosexual activists shoving their agenda down children's throats. that plus being the token democrat to buy into the obama won't say radical islam nonsense makes it hard for me to be too enthusiastic about her gabbard is well on her way to becoming an alt-right darling at this point a failed presidential run in which her views gets dragged out in the open might cement it
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Jan 18, 2019 17:19
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Cease to Hope posted:the big problem with this is that she's merely a different kind of lovely interventionist hawk. she's been agitating against pakistan for years for example. she "understands the islamic terrorism stuff"
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Jan 18, 2019 17:20
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I'm quite sure nobody in power actually has a plan for Trump being impeached. The last big plan the Republican establishment had was literally Jeb.
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Jan 18, 2019 17:21
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67 senators will not vote to impeach trump
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Jan 18, 2019 17:22
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Ghost Leviathan posted:I'm quite sure nobody in power actually has a plan for Trump being impeached. The last big plan the Republican establishment had was literally Jeb. if trump gets impeached pence is in power and everyone in the establishment is happier it's probably better to put up pence than trump for 2020 at this point
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Jan 18, 2019 17:22
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Raskolnikov38 posted:67 senators will not vote to impeach trump lol you probably wouldn't even get to 48
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Jan 18, 2019 17:22
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:The Thin Blue vote was from 2017. I mean, I just don't get why Mother Jones is digging through his voting record now and not 6 months ago. Six months ago we were having a midterm election and this vote was irrelevant because Ted Cruz is obviously horribly worse on police brutality issues. Now we are about to have a presidential primary and this vote is relevant because it helps distinguish candidates who give lip service to police brutality issues versus candidates who actually do something about it. Not really a complicated situation. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 09:02 on Jan 19, 2019 |
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Jan 18, 2019 17:26
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Typo posted:lol you probably wouldn't even get to 48 i'm not even sure the articles pass the house
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Jan 18, 2019 17:27
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:So which candidate has the best chance of running and winning against President Pence? Why come up with this kinda series of increasingly unlikely events to sell your scenario when it's a lot more likely that Donnie just keels over from natural causes within a year's time? Also Tulsi ought to be disqualified as a candidate for being a piece of poo poo war hawk, but then again being a piece of poo poo war hawk doesn't actually seem to be disqualifying for getting the Dem nomination.
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Jan 18, 2019 17:39
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Real Cool Catfish posted:Not American so slightly less in the loop. It's hard to answer this question because a candidate claiming they aren't running usually doesn't mean anything. Kirsten Gillibrand claimed she wasn't running and... she's running. I think Clinton will run, personally, because she's still doing a lot of things that prospective candidates would be doing - writing books, going to the right places, seemingly maintaining some kind of campaign structure. But there's no way to actually know that. Maybe she was thinking of running and then doesn't. Maybe it was all a coincidence. Who knows?  Edit: Joseph Stalin is at 69 votes, no one else is allowed to vote Joseph Stalin.
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Jan 18, 2019 17:58
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Lightning Knight posted:I think Clinton will run Don't even joke, man
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Jan 18, 2019 18:00
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Fitzy Fitz posted:Don't even joke, man I'm dead serious, I think she's going to run. I actually have a toxx/mod challenge for this, although it's a bit of a moot point if Evilweasel doesn't come back lol.
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Jan 18, 2019 18:02
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Lightning Knight posted:
My guess is that Clinton was running in the "invisible primary" sense but the donors all told her she'd had her chance. I don't think she'll announce. Could be wrong.
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Jan 18, 2019 18:03
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:My guess is that Clinton was running in the "invisible primary" sense but the donors all told her she'd had her chance. I don't think she'll announce. Could be wrong. This is also a reasonable conclusion imo, and if so then I have a book report to write next year.
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Jan 18, 2019 18:04
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Cerebral Bore posted:Why come up with this kinda series of increasingly unlikely events to sell your scenario when it's a lot more likely that Donnie just keels over from natural causes within a year's time? objectively speaking, president gabbard's foreign policy would be pretty interesting for one Pakistan is hosed (lol if you think gabbard-modi pact isn't happening) but otherwise her objection to intervening in Syria is mainly that we are intervening on the wrong side. Her policy would prob be a lot of proping up secular pinochets against the Islamist movements kinda like kissinger with communism and droning the crap out of yemen/nw pakistani Typo fucked around with this message at 18:17 on Jan 18, 2019 |
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Jan 18, 2019 18:14
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Lightning Knight posted:
bernie was too centrist for me
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Jan 18, 2019 18:18
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Lightning Knight posted:I'm dead serious, I think she's going to run. I actually have a toxx/mod challenge for this, although it's a bit of a moot point if Evilweasel doesn't come back lol. Lightning Knight posted:This is also a reasonable conclusion imo, and if so then I have a book report to write next year. I miss people when they leave =(
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Jan 18, 2019 18:21
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Typo posted:objectively speaking, president gabbard's foreign policy would be pretty interesting So business as usual, except some names get swapped around.
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Jan 18, 2019 18:30
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keep in mind that a lot of people who like her foreign policy aren't doves, they are the "we should be helping assad" types
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Jan 18, 2019 18:32
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Gabbard's comments on gay people make her a non-starter. The second those hit the wide public, she's toast in any serious capacity in the Dem primary. Pretty good setup to be an alt-right media darling though.
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Jan 18, 2019 18:34
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Z. Autobahn posted:Gabbard's comments on gay people make her a non-starter. The second those hit the wide public, she's toast in any serious capacity in the Dem primary. Pretty good setup to be an alt-right media darling though. I think this is a simplification. Gabbard is going to be a non-starter because she has no meaningful constituency. The centrist base has already decided that she's poo poo for backing Bernie in 2016 and then come up with ad hoc policy justifications for why they think she's poo poo, and those are good enough to stand up to cursory scrutiny. The progressive base isn't going to pick Gabbard over Bernie or even Warren in meaningful numbers. There's no real base for Gabbard 2020, she's just running for a cabinet position because she's a blatant opportunist/careerist. This is, after all, the person who immediately went to Trump to ask for a job when he won.
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Jan 18, 2019 18:38
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Lightning Knight posted:I think this is a simplification. Gabbard is going to be a non-starter because she has no meaningful constituency. The centrist base has already decided that she's poo poo for backing Bernie in 2016 and then come up with ad hoc policy justifications for why they think she's poo poo, and those are good enough to stand up to cursory scrutiny. The progressive base isn't going to pick Gabbard over Bernie or even Warren in meaningful numbers. There's no real base for Gabbard 2020, she's just running for a cabinet position because she's a blatant opportunist/careerist. This is, after all, the person who immediately went to Trump to ask for a job when he won. E: I think the "centrist base" as in "people who still remember/give a poo poo about who supported whom in 2016" is a really small part of even the primary electorate
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Jan 18, 2019 18:44
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Typo posted:I don't think the "centrist base" as in "people who still remember/give a poo poo about who supported whom in 2016" is a really small part of even the primary electorate Yes, but the centrist base are the ones who write all the op-eds and viral tweets for the #resistance and they won't say it's because Gabbard supported Bernie in 2016, they'll say it's because of her being poo poo on policy. They don't actually care that she's poo poo on policy or they wouldn't like Joe Biden lol. This kind of thing doesn't work on Bernie as well because Bernie actually has things going for him. Gabbard... doesn't.
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Jan 18, 2019 18:46
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Lightning Knight posted:Yes, but the centrist base are the ones who write all the op-eds and viral tweets for the #resistance and they won't say it's because Gabbard supported Bernie in 2016, they'll say it's because of her being poo poo on policy. They don't actually care that she's poo poo on policy or they wouldn't like Joe Biden lol. does anybody give a poo poo about those?
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Jan 18, 2019 18:47
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https://mobile.twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1086026009395298304
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Jan 18, 2019 18:50
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Typo posted:does anybody give a poo poo about those? The type of people who aren't extremely ideological but are extremely online and then share those takes with their normal people family and friends. My point is that the venn diagram of "people who like Gabbard" and "people who don't like any other candidate more, even several candidates" is like ten people and one of them is Jimmy Dore.
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Jan 18, 2019 18:51
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Lightning Knight posted:The type of people who aren't extremely ideological but are extremely online and then share those takes with their normal people family and friends. so what's up with jimmy dore I seen his eps once his mark blyth was on it I think, what's his pros/cons as youtube person
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Jan 18, 2019 18:58
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He’s losing to Biden by 11 points though. Edit: This is kind of an amazing self own. “Bernie isn’t black voters first choice.” “Oh yeah, he isn’t white voters first choice either! This is good news! For Bernie!” Sinistral fucked around with this message at 19:22 on Jan 18, 2019 |
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Jan 18, 2019 19:18
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Biden will Jeb out hard. Dude's coasting solely on good feelings about Obama.
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Jan 18, 2019 19:21
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Sinistral posted:He’s losing to Biden by 11 points though. The "narrative trouble" Mattyglesias is referring to isn't "Bernie can't win". That narrative is of course not in trouble based on this poll. He's referring to the narrative that Bernie only appeals to white Democrats not-saying-he's-racist-but-black-Democrats-don't-like-him-probably-because-he's-a-racist, the narrative that black Democrats are fiscal conservatives who don't want single-payer and are crying out for means tested access to tax credits for loan repayment for affordable healthcare cost-sharing for entrepreneurs, the narrative that universal social programs and financial regulation are racist, etc. In reality Bernie is as/more popular among black Democrats than among white Democrats. Sinistral posted:Edit: This is kind of an amazing self own. “Bernie isn’t black voters first choice.” “Oh yeah, he isn’t white voters first choice either! This is good news! For Bernie!” This reading comprehension fail is an amazing self-own 
VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Jan 18, 2019 |
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Jan 18, 2019 19:23
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It's not narrative trouble, though, because the "Bernie and democratic socialism is racist escapism for privileged whites" narrative has never been based on evidence. People don't read polls, they read headlines and pie charts that Politico, NYT and 538 shits into their media feeds. In the DC hellhole I'm in, that DailyKos bullshit forum poll from weeks back is still Facts and Pragmatic Reality at the lunch table. Bernie's been doing great in polls with PoC for 2 years and it hasn't interrupted this narrative.
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Jan 18, 2019 19:55
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Breakfast All Day posted:It's not narrative trouble, though, because the "Bernie and democratic socialism is racist escapism for privileged whites" narrative has never been based on evidence. People don't read polls, they read headlines and pie charts that Politico, NYT and 538 shits into their media feeds. In the DC hellhole I'm in, that DailyKos bullshit forum poll from weeks back is still Facts and Pragmatic Reality at the lunch table. It's trouble in the sense that it's more ammunition to throw out to convince bystanders who might be confused by the strategy of muddying the waters by accusing every system other than neoliberal capitalist oligarchy of being racist. Obviously it's not trouble for the convictions of the people actually pushing this narrative, because as you say it's never been based on facts, it's always been a right-wing strategy to protect the status quo by using black voters as a prop.
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Jan 18, 2019 20:03
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Typo posted:so what's up with jimmy dore Dore has good takes on why the Democratic leadership is terrible, but he's otherwise a massive idiot. A few examples: -During 2016 he gave a platform for really stupid conspiracy theories like "Hillary has Parkinsons" and "Hillary did Seth Rich." -He had a shouting match with Sam Seder on Majority Report, wherein he argued that the moon falling into Lake Michigan was as or more likely than Trump getting a SCOTUS nominee through. -More recently, he said that the left should align with Tucker Carlson and other alt-rightists because he thinks they're anti-war. (they're actually not) -Most egregiously, IMO, he stanned for the "Lava Jato" investigation in Brazil that turned out to be a far right coup designed to target Lula and other left-wing politicians. Dore supported it because it was supposedly meant to root out corruption, but that was obviously bogus even at the time. The fact that this coup helped put the ultra-corrupt, authoritarian sociopath Bolsonaro in power doesn't seem to bother Jimmy. -Also he still stans for Tulsi Gabbard. In summary, the only stuff he's good on, other commentators (Chapo, Michael Brooks, the Pod drat America dudes) do better, and he's extremely bad on everything else. gently caress him.
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Jan 18, 2019 20:14
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:So which candidate has the best chance of running and winning against President Pence? I'll bite here. This seems like it would almost invariably end up in a GOP 2020 win. Outside of the % of the populace that's actively politically engaged (i.e. the people who vote every 4 years and then go back to tuning out) I think there's just a desire to return to "normality" where we don't say the quiet parts out loud. Obama was an incumbent neoliberal, and one of the best public speakers of all time in US politics. I think there's real "Trump fatigue" in America right now, and unless you're the type of person that cares about politics anyways, there's a huge portion of our populace that just wants to be able to tune out politics again without wondering what kind of batshit crazy stunt or scandal is going to come out tomorrow. I don't think a centrist candidate wins for Dems, but I think a centrist and familiar candidate like Romney on a GOP ticket handedly wins because: 1) Dem voter turnout isn't activated in the way Trump is activating it 2) It's the perfect cover for the GOP for "Trump". An impeachment/Pence-Romney ticket seems like something Mitch McConnell would conceive of as the final closing act of his reprehensible career. Framing it as basically a "mulligan" for the GOP on Trump, while simultaneously providing political cover for GOP Senators with a "return to our roots as Respectable Conservatives (TM)" and "but come on guys, you still got your corporate tax cuts and ethnonationalism out of Trump, so it wasn't ALL bad rite?" type of messaging. This locks in all of your GOP blocks like the evangelicals, Wall Street neoliberal crowd (especially if the Dems run a true progressive out of the primaries), R's who vote R because racism, the rest of the Fox News/Ben Shapiro crowd, and also captures the weird Joe-Rogan-esque "independents" that'd otherwise vote D to actively vote against Trump. You also have the odd R voting Hispanic demographic too that I could see aligning with a non-Trump 2020 GOP ticket (think of these types of voters in Florida, and oddly enough some border states that already go R by razor thin margins.) Combine point #2 with deflated Dem turnout because Trump is out of the equation, and you have the perfect scenario where this is all worked out behind the scenes with Trump and the GOP establishment. Trump falls on the sword and eats either impeachment (far less likely) and provides the political cover for enough GOP Senators to get to 67 in exchange for being immediately pardoned, or McConnell and Trump agree he never gets impeached by the Senate, but then doesn't run and instead resigns right before the election knowing that he's toxic for the GOP brand in 2020, the Pence-Romney ticket runs with full GOP establishment support, McConnell and the GOP go into hyper-aggressive messaging of the Dems as "radicals", and labeling themselves as the moderate/responsible adults because they just ditched Trump. We all know they'd totally win the election in this scenario, as much as it makes me throw up a little bit to think about.
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Jan 18, 2019 20:17
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Majorian posted:
lol what the reason he gave for it
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Jan 18, 2019 20:39
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Typo posted:lol what the reason he gave for it "What if Republicans abolish the filibuster? Well what if the moon crashes into Lake Michigan! We can't debate every crazy what-if, the fact is the filibuster exists and Democrats can use it to keep Scalia's seat open for four years!" Was pretty much the gist of it.
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Jan 18, 2019 20:42
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My top choice for the primary is Bernie but I figured he'd be getting lots of votes so I voted for my runner-up instead which right now is Harris. She has enough charisma to run against Trump, her major downside is her background as a district attorney and state AG which I'm not sure is an actual downside in the general election, and as far as establishment Dems go we could do a lot worse. As far as likely candidates go I'm open to pretty much everyone but Biden at this point, and I would still vote for him in the general (albeit without much excitement). Mostly I just hope this primary cycle can avoid all the trench warfare and friendly fire of the last one, but in this digital age who knows what exciting party divisions will be created.
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Jan 18, 2019 20:42
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VitalSigns posted:"What if Republicans abolish the filibuster? Well what if the moon crashes into Lake Michigan! We can't debate every crazy what-if, the fact is the filibuster exists and Democrats can use it to keep Scalia's seat open for four years!" lol
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Jan 18, 2019 20:42
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:So which candidate has the best chance of running and winning against President Pence? They all have a great chance if Pence is at the top of any GOP ticket in 2020. The hypothetical scenario you're spelling out in the rest of this post would be pretty scary, but it would also come on the back of a huge cascade of terrible political losses for the GOP as a whole. Looked at another way, would Romney running in 2020 without an incumbent advantage be nearly as scary? I don't think so, and if his incumbency was gained via multiple resignations or impeachment I'm not sure it'd be much of an advantage.
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Jan 18, 2019 20:48
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