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Soulex posted:Also dont forget Gambler's Folley or whatever its called The number of trials once you hit 250+ encounters is so great that any statistical anomaly should correct itself. That's why playing efficiently should all but guarantee somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 shinies when you play at that pace. Consider flipping a coin 5 times and getting heads 5 times in a row, vs getting a series of 5 heads in a row in 30 flips. The sample size is big enough that the number of heads and tails total in 30 are likely to be roughly even.
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Jan 24, 2019 12:01
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Coins don't need months of patches to work properly
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Jan 24, 2019 13:12
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NTRabbit posted:Coins don't need months of patches to work properly Sounds like someone doesn't bother to read the patch notes the fed has issued quarterly for years
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Jan 24, 2019 15:17
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Boy does someone in this thread not understand statistics at all.
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Jan 24, 2019 16:09
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Guys I've seen over 500 Roselia in the wild and still don't have a shiny Niantic hosed up.
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Jan 24, 2019 16:10
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HookShot posted:Niantic hosed up. You aren’t wrong.
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Jan 24, 2019 16:22
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HookShot posted:Guys I've seen over 500 Roselia in the wild and still don't have a shiny Niantic hosed up. I've seen about 200 and have two. Weird how that works.
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Jan 24, 2019 16:29
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Mustached Demon posted:I've seen about 200 and have two. My personal experience tells me you are wrong. Duckman2008 posted:You aren’t wrong. Do I get 5 free premium raid passes as compensation?
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Jan 24, 2019 16:41
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Greader posted:Actually, what are some of the weirder/sillier stops people have seen, either themselves or through gifts? My local area has a bunch of strange ones since I guess the Ingress crowd just took pictures of anything that stood out, my favorite is still the gym called Psycho-Disk (Basically a big disk with the circular hypnotic pattern you see in cartoons and such) I saw one in Barcelona, Spain that was named "The n**** in the hood". No, I don't know why it's still there, but it's probably the most unique stop I've seen. Also regarding the shinys for raids, on Gengar raid 3 hours, I got 6 shinies in 27 attempts. On Ho-oh and Lugia weekend, I personally saw 1/80 across 2 accounts. Luck averages out. On Kyogre/Groudon so far, 3 Groudon 1 Kyogre over 80 attempts at least so far? Yukari fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Jan 24, 2019 |
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Jan 24, 2019 16:43
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Yeah and I got 0 shiny Articunos over 20 attempts and 4 shiny Moltres out of 9 attempts, so crazy how random chance works. Stupid pink chickens.
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Jan 24, 2019 16:53
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I saw over a hundred totodile on community day and only caught one shiny. I saw an equal number of squirtles on his community day and caught zero. Meanwhile some of the locals who travel the exact same area I do can easily catch 15 to 20 shinies on a community day. It's the same people every time, too.
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Jan 24, 2019 16:56
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I only got one shiny in the first hundred or so totodiles, but was moving fast enough that I caught another hundred and got four shinies out of those. Articuno day I got zero shinies, Zapdos I got 6 out of 16 raids. Chance works this way, especially when the odds are long on something then some will get long stretches of no luck.
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Jan 24, 2019 17:19
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For those of you complaining about shiny rates, have you not played the mainstream games? If you think the chances in this game are obscene, play the actual games.
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Jan 24, 2019 17:42
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Louisgod posted:For those of you complaining about shiny rates, have you not played the mainstream games? If you think the chances in this game are obscene, play the actual games. 100% with the Masuda method! But yeah, they’re insanely low if not using a uh... “strategy” like that. Edit: Looks like I’m mixing up my vintage Pokémon tricks. I was thinking the one where you use the step timer app on the PC to determine when a shiny would appear. Masuda was just eggs from different games yielding a higher shiny rate.
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Jan 24, 2019 17:51
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It's kind of hilarious how brokebrained people become over shinies. They're fun, but man people get real upset about them. Anyway... does anyone know how adventure sync works? I've been using google fit, turning off the game and running on a treadmill with my phone in my pocket, but I dont see any egg movement. Is it only if I'm doing an actual run?
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Jan 24, 2019 18:00
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seiferguy posted:It's kind of hilarious how brokebrained people become over shinies. They're fun, but man people get real upset about them. Game is entirely off, and... do you have a fitness watch? Make sure that the data that's going into google fit isn't from the watch, because that counts as "manual data" and won't work with adventure sync.
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Jan 24, 2019 18:02
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seiferguy posted:Anyway... does anyone know how adventure sync works? I've been using google fit, turning off the game and running on a treadmill with my phone in my pocket, but I dont see any egg movement. Is it only if I'm doing an actual run? I do Pokemon go off, phone in pocket and I hatch eggs. I'll turn the app on and check every mile or 2 to incubate another egg.
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Jan 24, 2019 18:05
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BGrifter posted:Edit: Looks like I’m mixing up my vintage Pokémon tricks. I was thinking the one where you use the step timer app on the PC to determine when a shiny would appear. Masuda was just eggs from different games yielding a higher shiny rate. All I know is that there are people that stream their shiny hunts on Twitch and sometimes they get into the thousands before they run into one. I get that this game is different but in general shinies are hard to get and sometimes the odds just don't work in your favor.
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Jan 24, 2019 18:06
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Yukari posted:Game is entirely off, and... do you have a fitness watch? Make sure that the data that's going into google fit isn't from the watch, because that counts as "manual data" and won't work with adventure sync. I have a Fitbit and made sure fit to fit got uninstalled. Also saw that both go and google fit didnt have storage permissions, oops. Also, apparently battery saver needs to be off?
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Jan 24, 2019 18:12
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Louisgod posted:All I know is that there are people that stream their shiny hunts on Twitch and sometimes they get into the thousands before they run into one. I get that this game is different but in general shinies are hard to get and sometimes the odds just don't work in your favor. I’m just being a cranky old Pokémon nerd nostalgic for the old days. There used to be a method around the Diamond & Pearl days where you could find out your “seed number” either by using some hack, or by trading a random Pokémon to someone on IRC and having them find it for you. Then you could plug that number into a calculator app on your PC which would tell you how many actions you’d have to take for a Pokémon with certain stats, shiny or not shiny, would appear. The game wasn’t truly random so you could predict with 100% accuracy the results on hatching eggs, wild Pokémon and I think even legendaries. They were also legit as opposed to the hack generated ones that often were buggy or got detected by Nintendo’s super limited anti-hack detection. I played around with it long enough to farm up a dozen or so fun shinies then got bored.
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Jan 24, 2019 18:15
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seiferguy posted:It's kind of hilarious how brokebrained people become over shinies. They're fun, but man people get real upset about them. And so many shinies look worse than their non shiny form. For me, they're a curiosity. I've managed to get 3, but ultimately, I don't care.
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Jan 24, 2019 18:41
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My gotcha has been hit and banged around so much that it’s been restarting itself at night. It doesn’t vibrate anymore, but I’ll accept that.
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Jan 24, 2019 18:48
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The other problem with checking caught vs shiny stats are the real hard core fast players are likely just running from non shinies upon checking them . I do it all the time just because I don't care to throw at some junk zigzagoon or whatever but will see if it's shiny
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Jan 24, 2019 19:50
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mastershakeman posted:The other problem with checking caught vs shiny stats are the real hard core fast players are likely just running from non shinies upon checking them . I do it all the time just because I don't care to throw at some junk zigzagoon or whatever but will see if it's shiny Yeah, seen is a much more telling stat than caught. The quick catch is a compromise between the two since it takes all of 10 seconds or so to set it up, throw a ball, run. My inventory is usually within 50 or 100 spots of being full, so there is no reason to not throw a ball at junk for the dust and just transfer it later without even appraising.
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Jan 24, 2019 19:56
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The two main pokemon I've been looking for in the wild that I don't have shinies of are Roselia and Murkrow. They're both motherfuckers to catch, so I definitely just check and run 90% of the time. If they're under 100CP I usually go for the catch for the candy, but that's fairly rare. So yeah, my 520-something seen Roselia is definitely more accurate a figure than my 50-something caught.
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Jan 24, 2019 20:03
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Oh yeah I've also got this stat: I spent the same amount of time out and about during the shiny Roselia weekend and the shiny Wingull weekend, and ended up with 8 Roselias and 1 Wingull.
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Jan 24, 2019 21:01
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OgreNoah posted:Oh yeah I've also got this stat: I spent the same amount of time out and about during the shiny Roselia weekend and the shiny Wingull weekend, and ended up with 8 Roselias and 1 Wingull. It's hard to tell what the rate for those weekend events is. Sometimes it is the boosted 1 in 75, other times it is the normal 1 in 400. I wasn't around for either of these weekends, but I can say that I got like 6 shiny Pinsirs during the Pinsir weekend over the course of a day of being out and doing random things while hunting pokemon.
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Jan 24, 2019 21:04
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I played for like 30 minutes on Wingull weekend and got two shinies so I'm pretty sure the rate was boosted. I wish they'd boosted the rate on the shiny ponyta though. I want an awesome Bunsen Burner Horsie.
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Jan 24, 2019 21:12
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Greader posted:Actually, what are some of the weirder/sillier stops people have seen, either themselves or through gifts? I'm a fan of the description on this supermarket I drive past. 
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Jan 24, 2019 21:18
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BabyRyoga posted:It's hard to tell what the rate for those weekend events is. Sometimes it is the boosted 1 in 75, other times it is the normal 1 in 400. I wasn't around for either of these weekends, but I can say that I got like 6 shiny Pinsirs during the Pinsir weekend over the course of a day of being out and doing random things while hunting pokemon. Distinguishing between 1/400 and 1/75 is easy, the hard part is distinguishing between 1/75, 1/60, 1/40, 1/25...
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Jan 24, 2019 21:46
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Greader posted:Actually, what are some of the weirder/sillier stops people have seen, either themselves or through gifts? My local area has a bunch of strange ones since I guess the Ingress crowd just took pictures of anything that stood out, my favorite is still the gym called Psycho-Disk (Basically a big disk with the circular hypnotic pattern you see in cartoons and such) I love getting weird gifts, thank you goon who sent me this: 
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Jan 24, 2019 21:47
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Do you still get Sinnoh stones for battling team leaders? I haven't had a Sinnoh stone in weeks.
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Jan 24, 2019 21:51
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Jaxyon posted:Do you still get Sinnoh stones for battling team leaders? Yes, I got one this morning, also got another from battling my kiddos' account.
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Jan 24, 2019 21:55
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Jaxyon posted:Do you still get Sinnoh stones for battling team leaders? One trainer battle, 3 pvp battles a day.
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Jan 24, 2019 21:56
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HookShot posted:I wish they'd boosted the rate on the shiny ponyta though. I want an awesome Bunsen Burner Horsie. I named mine Lisa Frank 
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Jan 24, 2019 23:00
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Greader posted:Actually, what are some of the weirder/sillier stops people have seen, either themselves or through gifts? My local area has a bunch of strange ones since I guess the Ingress crowd just took pictures of anything that stood out, my favorite is still the gym called Psycho-Disk (Basically a big disk with the circular hypnotic pattern you see in cartoons and such) I work by a company called Lee Philips Packaging and they have a big statue of an open box in front of their building. The statue is a gym called "Huge Package" which is pretty funny imo.
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Jan 24, 2019 23:21
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I got a Moltres from my weekly research!  This is great because I had traded my only Moltres to my husband ages ago to help him with Dex completion. Now I have a replacement! I named him Heat Miser. He matches my Articuno named Cold Miser.
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Jan 24, 2019 23:24
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HookShot posted:Do I get 5 free premium raid passes as compensation? Based off my experience when Niantic , when they canceled my Ex raid they gave me 2 premium raid passes, so if that’s what I got, that’s what you get. Silver Falcon posted:I got a Moltres from my weekly research! ....so what did you name your Zapdos? Duckman2008 fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Jan 24, 2019 |
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Jan 24, 2019 23:47
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BabyRyoga posted:The number of trials once you hit 250+ encounters is so great that any statistical anomaly should correct itself. That's why playing efficiently should all but guarantee somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 shinies when you play at that pace. I don't think you understand statistics. At all. No, that sample size is well below where you'd expect to stop getting human experiences of unusual luck, especially given the player counts in Pokemon Go. The spawn reshuffle also hosed up my local spawns badly enough where 250+ event mons during a community day isn't happening. Also are you really willing to assume Niantic hasn't wildly hosed something up regarding shiny rates?
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Jan 25, 2019 00:12
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Been weather boosted in the evenings here the last couple days, so lots of Groudon raids after work. Finally caught a shiny today... on my alt.
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Jan 25, 2019 03:50
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