|
ryde posted:I think that leftists are worried that a right challenge to the PSUV would just be an accelerated kleptocracy or leaving the poor to die, so I can get where they're coming from with the left/right framing. I think the leftists need to understand that leaving the poor to die, and an accelerated kleptocracy is what PSUV is. You can probably find the numbers, I don't think I have to post them again, Maduro's regime has massively increased the poverty rate, to a scale that is unprecedented, it eclipses the worst excesses of Carlos Andres Perez's second presidency. Maduro has consistently picked the worst option when deciding economic policy, to the point where we would be doing better if we made economic decisions via coinflip. Just putting rules back into the economy and having it not be a complete act of improvisation is enough to curb poverty rates. With just a few measures we can end hyperinflation and start steering things back to reality, it just needs to be done by someone.
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 22, 2024 17:29 |
|
|
fnox posted:I think the leftists need to understand that leaving the poor to die, and an accelerated kleptocracy is what PSUV is. I'm with you on this. I'm just trying to understand and accurately state what the counter-point is. I think that Venezuela is increasingly at the point where discussions of an ideal government is devolving into fart huffing and what it needs is to stop the bleeding, even if the government has serious problems. I can understand the skepticism that comes from relying on an official that is bending constitutional rules (because lets face it, the article in question doesn't really address challenged elections) with support from the US. I honestly don't know what to think about the situation, but I don't think its as simple as "US imperialism vs leftists", nor "literally anyone is better." ryde fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Jan 24, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:13
|
|
|
Is Golinger as insanely untrustworthy a source as she seems?
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:15
|
|
|
Yes.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:16
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:Is Golinger as insanely untrustworthy a source as she seems? How is she any less trustworthy than people like chuck boone who contribute to an atlantic council funded psyop?
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:17
|
|
|
uninterrupted posted:Hey, sidenote for the people promoting the constitutionalist argument for the coup: if Guaido is now president, assuming he doesn’t get arrested/killed/etc, what happens in 30 days, the maximum time the president of the National Assembly can fill in as president of the country per article 233? Does Venezuela have no president? Technically, article 233 says that new, fair, and free elections must be called within 30 days but the interim president remains while the new president "is elected and proceeds to take charge." The constitution is pretty clear that this is an enumerated power of the legislative branch, if another branch (say an illegitimate executive or judicial branch) interfere with this power then that would be a constitutional crisis. Basically, the AN must do everything it can to hold elections within this 30 day window, which it seems likely they will do.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:20
|
|
|
elgatofilo posted:Basically, the AN must do everything it can to hold elections within this 30 day window, which it seems likely they will do. Google is a cluster gently caress right now. Is there any sign of the legislator moving to hold elections currently? CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:How is she any less trustworthy than people like chuck boone who contribute to an atlantic council funded psyop? 
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:22
|
|
|
There isn't any sign of Guaidó being able to enforce his claim on the (interim) presidency in any way, shape or form at the moment.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:23
|
|
|
beer_war posted:There isn't any sign of Guaidó being able to enforce his claim on the presidency in any way, shape or form at the moment. Granted, because they don't have official military support, but if they intended to at least try in good faith then I would expect them to be talking new elections right about now.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:24
|
|
|
CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:How is she any less trustworthy than people like chuck boone who contribute to an atlantic council funded psyop? Yikes. 'Chuck Boone collecting information on Venezuela for the thread means he is really an agent of the Atlantic council' is a new tankie take I haven't seen before.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:37
|
|
|
ryde posted:Google is a cluster gently caress right now. Is there any sign of the legislator moving to hold elections currently? The Miami Herald has been doing some more long-form coverage of the crisis, which they're calling the "Rubio doctrine" as it seems Marco Rubio is spearheading this. From what they've been able to piece together the plan is basically one of slowly encroaching walls: 1. Declare Guaido president, see if Maduro capitulates, negotiate some kind of exit strategy for him. 2. If he doesn't, start applying pressure by freezing payments to PDVSA and seizing all foreign accounts belonging to Venezuela and handing them over to the AN. This will make it harder for Maduro to keep paying his military cronies. Additionally, Rubio argues this will give the AN funds to hold an election with. 3. If he still refuses, full oil embargo. 4. If he still refuses, there's still some options including an oil blockade to prevent anything from getting in or out of Venezuela that isn't the food and medicine that is desperately needed. This is where the collaboration of Colombia and Brazil are critical. There don't appear to be any plans for a land invasion of any kind, so I'm frankly puzzled at what people are arguing in this thread. A land invasion is completely unnecessary, these are hardly the revolutionary ideologues they histrionically paint themselves as. These are kleptoocrats concerned only with their bottom line. Block their ability to get any more money or spend the money they've stolen and watch them jump ship in exchange for clemency or a 3rd country exit strategy.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:38
|
|
|
"Stopping the usurpation, transitional government and free elections" is something of a catchphrase of his, but again, he has no way to meaningfully deliver on this or any other promise.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:39
|
|
|
elgatofilo posted:4. If he still refuses, there's still some options including an oil blockade to prevent anything from getting in or out of Venezuela that isn't the food and medicine that is desperately needed. This is where the collaboration of Colombia and Brazil are critical. Blockading a country is an act of war.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:41
|
|
|
CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:Blockading a country is an act of war. Was this argument going somewhere? At no point did I say anything about whether this is war or not, I said a land invasion does not appear to be on the table. Technically, refusing to withdraw your diplomats is also an act of war, I have no qualms with this. The point is this can be accomplished without a land or air invasion. Unless you were arguing Venezuela will invade the USA/Colombia/Brazil? I'm confused.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:50
|
|
|
elgatofilo posted:Was this argument going somewhere? At no point did I say anything about whether this is war or not, I said a land invasion does not appear to be on the table. The context of the thread has been to argue against "intervention" which is a pretty wide net beyond just having boots on the ground. At the extreme end, the US doing or saying anything at all is seen as intervention. Doing all the things outlined in that post would be some pretty heavy-handed, indisputable intervention.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:54
|
|
|
elgatofilo posted:Was this argument going somewhere? At no point did I say anything about whether this is war or not, I said a land invasion does not appear to be on the table. Technically, refusing to withdraw your diplomats is also an act of war, I have no qualms with this. The point is this can be accomplished without a land or air invasion. Going from “the US isn’t going to war with Venezuela” to “the US is going to war with Venezuela just a little” in a day isn’t promising, especially given the historic mission creep of US armed interventions.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:54
|
|
|
uninterrupted posted:Going from “the US isn’t going to war with Venezuela” to “the US is going to war with Venezuela just a little” in a day isn’t promising, especially given the historic mission creep of US armed interventions. This too. There's an escalation going on, and it is worrisome even if we aren't moving troops.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 19:56
|
|
|
Pedro De Heredia posted:"An internal PSUV challenge" is like thinking Trump is going to be primaried by a Principled Republican. An internal PSUV challenge is likely to lead to Diosdado as president, or maybe El Aissami. It's hard to tell if that would be worse, as they're probably more explicitly evil than Maduro, but possibly also more competent at keeping the house of cards from toppling over. Any news of Guaido? I always get the feeling with Venezuela that nothing will happen and it will return to the status quo of getting steadily shittier, but ... something has to give at some point ... doesn't it? I guess there is theoretically still a long way to fall until Venezuela turns into South Sudan. Also what's the escalation on the US's side? Rubio is full of hot air and I don't think he has any actual power in the government to influence foreign policy since Trump hates him.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:03
|
|
|
ryde posted:The context of the thread has been to argue against "intervention" which is a pretty wide net beyond just having boots on the ground. At the extreme end, the US doing or saying anything at all is seen as intervention. I have never argued against US intervention, so I'm glad we agree that this is an intervention. If anything, what I'm happy about is that there is at least a path to doing this without a land invasion. If you look back at my posts in this thread, as a Venezuelan-American I've consistently advocated for American intervention going back at least 2 years. I understand this makes me a "bad brown person" that needs American history and culture whitesplained to me so that I understand what's actually good for me; but I'm generally pretty deeply unconcerned with the optics in this situation.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:03
|
|
|
This NGO that tracks civil violence in Venezuela and is usually reliable tallies 26 dead since protests started: https://twitter.com/OVCSocial/status/1088509138148184066
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:12
|
|
|
I like how we've pivoted from "the US is not doing anything, what are you talking about?" to actively supporting and cheering on involvement as events accelerate.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:12
|
|
|
elgatofilo posted:I have never argued against US intervention, so I'm glad we agree that this is an intervention. If anything, what I'm happy about is that there is at least a path to doing this without a land invasion. Whereas I and others think any US intervention should be examined critically and those in power in the USA should not rush into Next Steps, because of the hard lesson of US intervention in the middle east; Syria started out as "We must stop Assad from gassing his own people, Assad Must Go" and was quickly turned into a "The US must occupy a position in Syria forever to counterbalance a Damascus-Moscow-Tehran axis of power" in most of the "respectable" foreign coverage. Making a diplomatic statement is one thing, freezing overseas assets of individuals is one thing, a blockade is an entirely different beast and an easy opportunity to spark an armed conflict. Military intervention, in any form, by the USA would be extremely bad for everyone involved, the USA included, so as a Venezuelan-American I'd hope you'd wish the best for both countries and to avoid that situation.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:14
|
|
|
CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:I like how we've pivoted from "the US is not doing anything, what are you talking about?" to actively supporting and cheering on involvement as events accelerate. Different people have different opinions. This thread is not a hivemind. I still think and have always thought that American military intervention of any kind would make matters worse for everyone, just like it has in most prior cases.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:15
|
|
|
CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:I like how we've pivoted from "the US is not doing anything, what are you talking about?" to actively supporting and cheering on involvement as events accelerate. That thing that happened, yes
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:19
|
|
|
elgatofilo posted:Was this argument going somewhere? At no point did I say anything about whether this is war or not, I said a land invasion does not appear to be on the table. Technically, refusing to withdraw your diplomats is also an act of war, I have no qualms with this. The point is this can be accomplished without a land or air invasion. CAPS LOCK BROKEN's position is that nations should be absolutely neutral towards each others internal affairs. Whether Maduro is a good or bad leader is immaterial, either way the United States should have no opinion on his conduct and take no actions regardless of the internal state of Venezuela.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:20
|
|
|
Squalid posted:CAPS LOCK BROKEN's position is that nations should be absolutely neutral towards each others internal affairs. Whether Maduro is a good or bad leader is immaterial, either way the United States should have no opinion on his conduct and take no actions regardless of the internal state of Venezuela. Actually his position is that all nations should bow to their ethnic masters the Han Chinese (he's the dude who talks about fancy Asians vs jungle Asians). Maduro's conveniently been selling his country to China as a lender of last resort, so he likes Maduro. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Jan 24, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:29
|
|
|
CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:I like how we've pivoted from "the US is not doing anything, what are you talking about?" to actively supporting and cheering on involvement as events accelerate. I don't speak for the other people in this thread, my position since the auto-coup in 2017 is that the US should intervene. This is obviously an American intervention, Rubio is on twitter gloating about it, everyone in Miami is talking about this as an American intervention. Laphroaig posted:Whereas I and others think any US intervention should be examined critically and those in power in the USA should not rush into Next Steps, because of the hard lesson of US intervention in the middle east; Syria started out as "We must stop Assad from gassing his own people, Assad Must Go" and was quickly turned into a "The US must occupy a position in Syria forever to counterbalance a Damascus-Moscow-Tehran axis of power" in most of the "respectable" foreign coverage. I would be surprised if this goes to the blockade stage. If it did, though, I would be even more surprised if the Venezuelan military were capable of mounting any kind of armed resistance whatsoever and did not simply immediately capitulate as soldiers and junior officers defect in droves. This is not Syria, I consider the equivalency of Syria with Venezuela to be basically a form of "everything south of the border is Mexico" except now it's "every place that's not America is the same." Syria and Venezuela could not possibly be more different in its culture, people, religion and history so I'm not even sure where this equivalency comes from. Rest assured that as a college educated bi-cultural person with knowledge of the history and culture of both places that I didn't come up with my position randomly and that I do, in fact, believe this will lead to the best outcome for both countries.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:33
|
|
|
elgatofilo posted:If you look back at my posts in this thread, as a Venezuelan-American I've consistently advocated for American intervention going back at least 2 years. I understand this makes me a "bad brown person" that needs American history and culture whitesplained to me so that I understand what's actually good for me; but I'm generally pretty deeply unconcerned with the optics in this situation. I sincerely apologize if I was whitesplaining to you. I misunderstood your post as not having an understanding of the context and thus talking past each other, which appears to not be the case. ryde fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Jan 24, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:38
|
|
|
"Oil blockade" likely doesn't mean a literal blockade, but simply forbidding Venezuelan oil from being processed in or shipped through the US.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:38
|
|
|
AGGGGH BEES posted:"Oil blockade" likely doesn't mean a literal blockade, but simply forbidding Venezuelan oil from being processed in or shipped through the US. It seems to me that that would be the worst possible half-measure.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 20:44
|
|
|
AGGGGH BEES posted:"Oil blockade" likely doesn't mean a literal blockade, but simply forbidding Venezuelan oil from being processed in or shipped through the US. That vanishes over 90% of Venezuela's typical refined oil imports, meaning even more shortages. This is also why ongoing claims about "economic war" against Venezuela have been so bogus, since that hasn't happened yet even though it would be the only way to conduct "economic war".
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 21:00
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/KevzPolitics/status/1088517504216059905?s=19 though this is the only account I'm seeing this. Does anyone have a reliable list of the countries and where they stand at the moment?
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 21:29
|
|
|
The part about the UK at least is true https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-v...n-idUKKCN1PI1IQ
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 21:34
|
|
|
The only announcements I've seen out of South Africa today have been that they have not decided to change their recognition of Maduro yet, but were planning to wait to see how the situation develops.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 21:48
|
|
|
U.S. requests United Nations security council meeting on Venezuela https://www.local10.com/espanol/noticias/venezuela/us-requests-united-nations-security-council-meeting-on-venezuela OMG IT'S THE US-BACKED COUP 
Negostrike fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Jan 24, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 22:01
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1088534105258713088
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 22:13
|
|
|
Personally I blame Mercenaries 2 for destabilizing the Bolivarian revolution and sowing doubt in the patriotic Venezuelan proletariat.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 22:39
|
|
|
So it's officially a CIA-backed coup then. Not surprised.
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 23:07
|
|
|
Wrap it up, Maduroilures...
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 23:15
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 22, 2024 17:29 |
|
|
Grouchio posted:So it's officially a CIA-backed coup then. Not surprised. The hell you get that out of?
|
|
#
?
Jan 24, 2019 23:20
|
|