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Truga posted:I'm glad we agree. I'm also not whitesplaining anything, and I'm not a gringo. I don't think the US is going to invade, but I also thought they wouldn't invade iraq, and I thought they wouldn't invade afghanistan and I thought they wouldn't bomb libya, so my track record is extremely good, as you can see. Furia posted:Either point me to the post were I did said “the US does not stand to benefit” or shut the gently caress up gringo.
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Jan 25, 2019 11:31
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Truga posted:Shale oil isn't going to be important ever,
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Jan 25, 2019 11:31
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Truga, there is a reason everyone stopped breathlessly publishing "Peak Oil" articles.
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Jan 25, 2019 11:33
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Socks4Hands posted:If Venezuela had a canal critical to international shipping running through it maybe the US would have a vested interest in keeping it stable post-intervention, especially if they can help turn it into the money-laundering capital of the world. I'm glad you're fine with the US invading Panama and murdering our citizens because it turned us into the decocted essence of neoliberal society, but we're not. Start digging. Doesn't the US have a vested interest in keeping Venezuela stable in a hypothetical post-intervention scenario? They want the oil, Venezuela can't produce as much oil if it doesn't have a stable economy and society, as demonstrated by what's happening right now, what you're saying is a contradiction. I mean I'm glad you're fine with Maduro killing hundreds, torturing thousands, and displacing millions, I'm not. Which is why I want him gone. Spare me this pity party while my people are having it worse.
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Jan 25, 2019 11:34
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coffeetable posted:it's already half of US production Hmm, you're right, I'm sorry. I didn't know it was that far along yet. Good news for early climate change I guess 
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Jan 25, 2019 11:34
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Truga posted:Hmm, you're right, I'm sorry. I didn't know it was that far along yet. Good news for early climate change I guess it's aight, it's nowhere near as widely known as it should be. petropolitics have changed immensely in the past ten years, and the US's new dominance of oil production has got opec tugging it's collar and looking nervous.
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Jan 25, 2019 11:39
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also yes the effective price cap on oil at ~$100 is hilariously bad for climate change
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Jan 25, 2019 11:40
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Truga posted:Hmm, you're right, I'm sorry. I didn't know it was that far along yet. Good news for early climate change I guess Perhaps now is the time to reflect on the many other things of which you might have no knowledge?
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Jan 25, 2019 11:41
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yeah i'm sorry i'll shut up now.
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Jan 25, 2019 11:47
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as a general point, i don't think the US intelligence apparatus has paid attention to loving anything that isn't islamic extremism since 9/11. the US hasn't been caught red handed in latin america in decades, while it can't seem to go six months without causing trouble in syria or yemen
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Jan 25, 2019 11:53
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fnox posted:Doesn't the US have a vested interest in keeping Venezuela stable in a hypothetical post-intervention scenario? They want the oil, Venezuela can't produce as much oil if it doesn't have a stable economy and society, as demonstrated by what's happening right now, what you're saying is a contradiction. You were arguing that the US has no use for Venezuelan oil, but if you're willing to concede that point let's move forward. The US hasn't displayed any particular interest in stabilizing any other nations they've gone after for their oil, so I doubt they're about to start now. Now, let's gloss over your complete refusal to listen to me when I try to explain why I have valid points to make - the way you glossed over our roasted citizens - and drop some facts about US actions in Panama and why they're eerily parallel to Venezuela. This article lays it out wonderfully, but I'll highlight some of the most relevant details for you: http://andromeda.rutgers.edu/~hbf/panama.htm 1988 (YOU ARE HERE): On Febrary 25, President Delvalle announces he has fired Noriega, but the National Assembly blocks this move by ousting Delvalle on the following day. Washington continues to recognize Delvalle as president. The National Assembly names Education Minister Manuel Solís Palma minister in charge of the presidency. *fast forward through five documented attempts at failed CIA coups and a healthy dose of sanctions* DECEMBER 20, 1989, INVASION: OPERATION JUST CAUSE (Yes, the Just Cause series is literally named after this military action) *At 1:00 a.m., U.S. officials install Guillermo Endara as Panama’s new president. The secret ceremony takes place on a military base--Fort Clayton, one of 13 bases in the Canal Zone. Replace "military base" with United States Embassy for Venezuelan accuracy. *As the new president’s inauguration is taking place, the U.S. Army, Air Force and Navy invade Panama, an area smaller than South Carolina, with a massive air attack and ground assault, including almost 28,000 troops and more than 300 aircraft. Helicopter gunships blast Panama City, where the wooden housing of the poor in El Chorillo is set on fire. The New York Times later reports that U.S. troops encounter “fierce resistance” in San Miguelito, a working-class suburb of 200,000 people, but Miguelito is devastated. Large parts of Colón are destroyed. Thousands of citizens are held in detention. Bodies are recovered from ruins and cremated. There is a mass burial on Christmas Day. Nobody knows how many civilians are killed because all of them are not counted; estimates range into the thousands. Hospitals overflow with wounded. FUN BONUS: *The Defense Department tries out one of its new superweapons--the Lockheed F-117A stealth ground attack aircraft. Defense Secretary Dick Cheney announces that each of two F-117A “Nighthawks” has delivered a 2,000-pound bomb with “pinpoint accuracy.” He is furious when he learns months later, in April, that one of the bombs missed its target by hundreds of yards. General Colin Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is part of a major failure of communication about the mission of the F-117As on their first combat bombing run. Now, if you read through the actual article, you'll see that the main point isn't the regime change. The main point is that the US has spent 200 years denying Panama the right to national sovereignty. Right now, the US is opening the door to do the exact same thing to Venezuela, and once that door is opened it will never close. Please listen to me.
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Jan 25, 2019 12:16
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But if US extracts more oil than it can use domestically, what would be the point? What do they gain by destabilizing venezuela further? I mean, there's tons of problems with fracking, and it's incredibly subsidised right now (has yet to turn a profit due to low oil prices), but that's probably still much cheaper than invading a country that's already ran into the ground by a lovely regime. If we see a real crash rather than just another recession in the next year situation could change, but we're not there yet.
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Jan 25, 2019 12:28
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Thanks but this isn't the Panama thread, we are not Panama, and you're extrapolating using a source with a very sharp left bias. Whatever valid point you have to make is lost in the verbosity of this.
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Jan 25, 2019 12:29
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fnox posted:Thanks but this isn't the Panama thread, we are not Panama, and you're extrapolating using a source with a very sharp left bias. Whatever valid point you have to make is lost in the verbosity of this. Right, you're not Panama. From the perspective of the US you're just another Latin American nation.
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Jan 25, 2019 12:38
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Socks4Hands posted:Right, you're not Panama. From the perspective of the US you're just another Latin American nation. The preferred nomenclature is “Fruit-hatted natives of the Lesser Americas”, hth?
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Jan 25, 2019 12:40
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Socks4Hands posted:Right, you're not Panama. From the perspective of the US you're just another Latin American nation. From your perspective too, it seems. Why would you equate Venezuela to Panama? Do you understand how the conditions are radically different here or not?
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Jan 25, 2019 12:40
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fnox posted:From your perspective too, it seems. Why would you equate Venezuela to Panama? Do you understand how the conditions are radically different here or not? I can go over preconditions, I can talk about how whenever the US talks about the "hemisphere" it results in regime change, and I can draw parallels but none of that matters if you stick doggedly to the belief that this time it will be different.
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Jan 25, 2019 12:45
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Socks4Hands posted:I can go over preconditions, I can talk about how whenever the US talks about the "hemisphere" it results in regime change, and I can draw parallels but none of that matters if you stick doggedly to the belief that this time it will be different. Panama is probably a poor model for US military intervention in Venezuela (in addition to the extreme unlikelihood of a US military intervention in the first place)? Panama is a one-horse town, it literally got stolen off Columbia for the purpose of being a small and easily-controlled state. Control the canal and you own Panama. Venezuela is not like this. Schadenboner fucked around with this message at 13:05 on Jan 25, 2019 |
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Jan 25, 2019 12:58
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No one actually thinks the US is going to invade Venezuela, right?
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Jan 25, 2019 13:04
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Pedro De Heredia posted:No one actually thinks the US is going to invade Venezuela, right? It’s possible given the dumb fucks running the show at the moment It’s not what we want but apparently it already happened because apparently starvation in poor neighborhoods is a cia psyops so who knows
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Jan 25, 2019 13:06
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Pedro De Heredia posted:No one actually thinks the US is going to invade Venezuela, right? The cold war poisoned some people's brain real loving hard. Most of those people are still in charge today. Again, I don't think US is going to invade. At the same time, they've done enough incredibly dumb things in the last few decades that I just don't think it's off the table. coffeetable posted:as a general point, i don't think the US intelligence apparatus has paid attention to loving anything that isn't islamic extremism since 9/11. the US hasn't been caught red handed in latin america in decades, while it can't seem to go six months without causing trouble in syria or yemen This is a good thing though that gives me a lot of hope that things aren't as bad as I fear.
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Jan 25, 2019 13:09
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Pedro De Heredia posted:No one actually thinks the US is going to invade Venezuela, right? Who knows what the US is going to do nowdays?
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Jan 25, 2019 13:15
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Pedro De Heredia posted:No one actually thinks the US is going to invade Venezuela, right? He might just think it's the right moment to do a Thatcher "La Isla de Margarita es Venezolana"? Pochoclo fucked around with this message at 13:36 on Jan 25, 2019 |
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Jan 25, 2019 13:34
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https://twitter.com/leftiblog/status/1088650090405801984?s=20
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Jan 25, 2019 15:04
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So this story is out: https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1088704085375795200 Read in context it doesn't jive with the rest of the article's analysis, but people are using this as further proof that this is totally a right-wing coup, and I have to wonder, at this point, if the Trump administration has been actively trying to buttress that argument.
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Jan 25, 2019 15:04
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This coup, started by an elected socdem party that is a member of the socialist international, is a right wing plot for sure.  Trump and bolso quickly recognizing the guy has done far more damage to Juan's international image than maduro could ever dream about, lmao
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Jan 25, 2019 15:15
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Absurd Alhazred posted:So this story is out: I mean the opposition has been a shitshow for a while and I've been saying that for years, it's not like they lacked the numbers to do this kinda stuff before, Henry Ramos Allup and Julio Borges just lacked the backbone to do what Guaido just did.
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Jan 25, 2019 15:16
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Truga posted:This coup, started by an elected socdem party that is a member of the socialist international, is a right wing plot for sure. At this rate the socialist international is going to be accused of being run by the cia all along.
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Jan 25, 2019 15:19
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Truga posted:Trump and bolso quickly recognizing the guy has done far more damage to Juan's international image than maduro could ever dream about, lmao Yeah, seriously. Impossible to tell how many people all over the world have already a fully formed opinion of Guaido based on this piece of information alone: "Trump and Bolsonaro recognized him". Absurd Alhazred posted:So this story is out: This reminds me of this piece from last September from the NYT about the US official who went allegedly to listen in during a meeting of Venezuelan plotters against Maduro, and when the plotters showed up the US official realized they didn't have anything planned because they thought they were there to get "guidance and ideas" from Washington. This is also why the "free and fair presidential elections within 30 days" bit is important. We're not likely to get those because the CNE is squarely on Maduro's side, but if this was all happening according to the letter of the law Guaido would be interim president until those elections determined the next president. And they'd have to be extremely free and fair to mitigate some of the damage that the US is doing.
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Jan 25, 2019 15:23
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The rate of production is very important - having the world's largest reserves of heavy crude doesn't mean all that much when the infrastructure is broken and continues to break more by the day.
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Jan 25, 2019 15:29
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This has probably been hashed out here, but this is it, right? This is the last gasp of actually using anything resembling a democratic framework to even have this ship somewhat safely land on a sandbar, isn't it? 
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Jan 25, 2019 15:39
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Alternately, using the word "coup" to describe a legitimate constitutional crisis is pretty loving stupid.
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Jan 25, 2019 15:44
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Absurd Alhazred posted:This has probably been hashed out here, but this is it, right? This is the last gasp of actually using anything resembling a democratic framework to even have this ship somewhat safely land on a sandbar, isn't it? Yep, the current Assembly's term ends next year. If this doesn't work, we've pretty much ran out of options that would exist in the constitution.
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Jan 25, 2019 15:44
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Absurd Alhazred posted:So this story is out: I think what this is mostly saying is that the people who had Guaido's role previous were unwilling to take this step. It's amazing they haven't arrested him yet, they really must be feeling some internal heat.
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Jan 25, 2019 15:51
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Feinne posted:I think what this is mostly saying is that the people who had Guaido's role previous were unwilling to take this step. In Venezuela, that's bad news. I can only hope he hasn't caved in.
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Jan 25, 2019 16:04
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Any talk on foreign oil interests in Venezuela has to include a discussion of China and Russia. Beijing and Moscow have done more to manipulate Venezuelan governance (by keeping the regime afloat financially lest they lose the billions they've already invested) in recent years than Washington has. Norton the First posted:Alternately, using the word "coup" to describe a legitimate constitutional crisis is pretty loving stupid. 
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Jan 25, 2019 16:11
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fnox posted:Doesn't the US have a vested interest in keeping Venezuela stable in a hypothetical post-intervention scenario? They want the oil, Venezuela can't produce as much oil if it doesn't have a stable economy and society, as demonstrated by what's happening right now, what you're saying is a contradiction. This is exactly what people said about Iraq. Except Saddam was worse than Maduro. But sure, keep cheerleading the US supported coup attempt that has made no indications of holding democratic elections while it creates Latin American ISIS.
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Jan 25, 2019 16:24
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Norton the First posted:Alternately, using the word "coup" to describe a legitimate constitutional crisis is pretty loving stupid. What do you call the American Civil War? The justification of this coup as a constitutional crisis is threadbare and the Supreme Court has already said its invalid.
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Jan 25, 2019 16:28
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uninterrupted posted:The justification of this coup as a constitutional crisis is threadbare and the Supreme Court has already said its invalid. What, the Supreme Court of the universe? The ultimate arbiters of everything said it's invalid? Oh, cool, I missed that news. Don't be an idiot. The Supreme Court is another political branch, as it is in all countries; they are not impartial arbiters of legitimacy. There aren't any. As to the American Civil War, I wouldn't call that a coup either. Try to come up with a definition of coup that a) includes this episode and b) doesn't include a ton of similar episodes that no one has ever called coups before, because the US wasn't involved, so there was no "CIA-backed coup" rhetoric to latch on to.
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Jan 25, 2019 16:36
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uninterrupted posted:What do you call the American Civil War? Unconstiutional secessionsist rebellion
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