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guaido would not be a good President and his willingness to accept imperialist US aid makes him a hundred times more suspect. Maduro is a criminal and must fall but a US backed regime change would make things much worse. the US just needs to stay out and let South America solve its own problems
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Jan 26, 2019 04:25
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Maduro made a funny joke:quote:My secret weapon, Escalona. I'm gonna send him as assistant to the self-proclaimed one to destroy him. (laughs) I thought of sending him as assistant, so he can, with his great capacity, end his life (laughs), destroy him, drive him crazy. https://twitter.com/T13/status/1088536294777597952
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Jan 26, 2019 04:37
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:guaido would not be a good President and his willingness to accept imperialist US aid makes him a hundred times more suspect. Maduro is a criminal and must fall but a US backed regime change would make things much worse. the US just needs to stay out and let South America solve its own problems What were his other options?
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Jan 26, 2019 04:39
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Clearly he should've refused imperialist dog aid in the form of *checks notes* "political recognition and nothing more". If he ends up doing poo poo like calling for armed intervention that'll be different.
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Jan 26, 2019 04:43
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The Inter American Commission on Human Rights at the OAS issued a statement calling on the Maduro government to grant Guaido and his family "special protective measures" given the fact that it https://twitter.com/CIDH/status/1089001358836011009 Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 04:46 on Jan 26, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 04:44
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as far as international recognition goes, there is no neutral position: if something does mysteriously trigger a change in government, the United States (and New York state law) must rapidly decide whether or not the new government is entitled to a credit line, and the new government will want to borrow from people and it will want to borrow under New York law because that's where the people with money want to govern the terms of the money they lend out The question of whether Venezuelan law entitles the new or old governments to credit in the name of Venezuela would have to be argued before a US federal judge interpreting Venezuelan law, not a court or any of the duelling legislatures in Venezuela, and as a de facto matter, access to financing is an existential matter since the government - both governments - cannot keep the lights on otherwise
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Jan 26, 2019 04:46
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:guaido would not be a good President and his willingness to accept imperialist US aid makes him a hundred times more suspect. Maduro is a criminal and must fall but a US backed regime change would make things much worse. the US just needs to stay out and let South America solve its own problems What if Venezuelans vote for someone who wants a regime change that is supported by the US?
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Jan 26, 2019 04:55
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elliot fuckin' abrams, Venezuela Guy for the United States Of America. loving magnificent. wonder if he's developed any new fetishes since the Contras, back then he was big into torture followed by decapitation for any suspected left-wing sympathizers. bright days ahead, team!
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Jan 26, 2019 06:07
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Oh good, glad to see Russia is just gonna start dumping in soldiers into the area to protect Maduro now that Maduro can't even pay his own army. Vassalage is back, baby!
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Jan 26, 2019 06:07
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Barudak posted:Oh good, glad to see Russia is just gonna start dumping in soldiers into the area to protect Maduro now that Maduro can't even pay his own army. Vassalage is back, baby! never left, man. god bless the School of the America, official motto "everyone should know how to hook car batteries up to the testicles of suspected trade unionists." Preview of Coming Attraction.
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Jan 26, 2019 06:11
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Barudak posted:Oh good, glad to see Russia is just gonna start dumping in soldiers into the area to protect Maduro now that Maduro can't even pay his own army. Vassalage is back, baby! What do you think was gonna happen if this coup went through?
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Jan 26, 2019 06:59
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:What do you think was gonna happen if this coup went through? "Coup".
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Jan 26, 2019 07:29
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:"Coup". I don't think that this attempt to forcefully unseat the government, which was masterminded by the United States while it wages an economic blockade on the country, is a stretch to be called a coup. The US is taking every measure it possibly can to force the government into default so that the only choice is to give up power to an unelected leader of a minority coalition.
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Jan 26, 2019 07:38
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ChaseSP posted:Clearly he should've refused imperialist dog aid in the form of *checks notes* "political recognition and nothing more". The US is pretty clearly doing more than just changing who it recognizes as President. It is now trying to cut off Venezuelan government revenue, and divert those funds to opposition leaders. I have not seen direct evidence of this, but I'm pretty sure the US is at least involved in efforts to build bridges between the military and opposition leaders. The end goal is obviously a military coup to remove Maduro. My apologies to everyone for posting Fox News, but this clip has a very revealing interview with John Bolton where he lays out very directly what he is trying to do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8av-cPP1uPE US National Security Adviser John Bolton posted:"I don't think Maduro has the military" I was hesitating before posting this because it feels like I'm picking sides. I don't want to argue about principles, I want to know what is happening. It is unfortunate this thread is overrun by extremely mad people yelling at each other, because it makes sharing information difficult. I want to discuss what is actually happening in Venezuela, including what the United States is doing. I don't want to have an abstract conversations about interventionism, socialism, or purely speculative invasions. If there were data available that suggested an invasion were imminent, that would be interesting to hear. I don't want to hear anyone's Tom Clancy bullshit.
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Jan 26, 2019 07:45
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:I don't think that this attempt to forcefully unseat the government, which was masterminded by the United States while it wages an economic blockade on the country, is a stretch to be called a coup. The US is taking every measure it possibly can to force the government into default so that the only choice is to give up power to an unelected leader of a minority coalition. These are the same pro-Maduro talking points that have been debunked by regulars in this thread approximately two hundred times over the past few years. If we wanted to default the Venezuelan government we could've targeted sanctions on the country as a whole instead of on Maduro or his lieutenants, or even stop refining their oil for them which we haven't, in fact, done. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 07:53 on Jan 26, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 07:48
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I stand corrected.
Norton the First fucked around with this message at 08:08 on Jan 26, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 08:02
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:These are the same pro-Maduro talking points that have been debunked by regulars in this thread approximately two hundred times over the past few years. If we wanted to default the Venezuelan government we could've targeted sanctions on the country as a whole instead of on Maduro or his lieutenants, or even stop refining their oil for them which we haven't, in fact, done. Your information is out of date. The US is now trying to cut all access by the Maduro government to any money. This will inevitably cause problems for people outside the PSUV leadership. This effort will have effects that ripple through the whole economy. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/u-k-said-to-deny-maduro-s-bid-to-pull-1-2-billion-of-gold quote:Nicolas Maduro’s embattled Venezuelan regime, desperate to hold onto the dwindling cash pile it has abroad, was stymied in its bid to pull $1.2 billion worth of gold out of the Bank of England, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Jan 26, 2019 08:05
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:These are the same pro-Maduro talking points that have been debunked by regulars in this thread approximately two hundred times over the past few years. If we wanted to default the Venezuelan government we could've targeted sanctions on the country as a whole instead of on Maduro or his lieutenants, or even stop refining their oil for them which we haven't, in fact, done. To be fair, that's not entirely accurate. New sanctions were introduced under Trump on the PDVSA and the country as a whole that prevented or greatly hindered their ability to deal with US companies and banks. I think this was brought up earlier in the thread? There was also that diplomatic cable where US diplomats boasted how effective these new sanctions are in hastening the government's path to default. There's also the complete government funds starvation tactic Squalid mentioned, deployed in the last couple of days. AFancyQuestionMark fucked around with this message at 08:09 on Jan 26, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 08:06
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Norton the First posted:How many times do people have to point out that that's not true before people will stop saying it? Venezuela is entirely dependent on the US to refine its oil. At any time we could snap our fingers and their exports would go to approximately zero. Far from taking every measure it can, the US has insisted on taking nothing but half measures every step of the way. Look at the video I posted. Bolton says "we are looking at the oil assets" i.e. he is suggesting the US is going to start cut access to revenue from Citgo to the Maduro government. Not that what Bolton says is law, but it is certainly indicative. AFancyQuestionMark posted:To be fair, that's not entirely accurate. New sanctions were introduced under Trump on the PDVSA and the country as a whole that prevented or greatly hindered their ability to deal with US companies and banks. I think this was brought up earlier in the thread? There was also that diplomatic cable where US diplomats boasted how effective these new sanctions are in hastening the government's path to default. Could you post the cable? I'd like to read it.
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Jan 26, 2019 08:09
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Squalid posted:Your information is out of date. The US is now trying to cut all access by the Maduro government to any money. This will inevitably cause problems for people outside the PSUV leadership. This effort will have effects that ripple through the whole economy. while there's not really anything concrete in the article, yeah, we can reasonably assume that at the absolute least the BoE is sufficiently spooked to waffle and drag their heels because of renewed USA enthusiasm Pener Kropoopkin posted:I don't think that this attempt to forcefully unseat the government, which was masterminded by the United States while it wages an economic blockade on the country, is a stretch to be called a coup. The US is taking every measure it possibly can to force the government into default so that the only choice is to give up power to an unelected leader of a minority coalition. yo i think you make a pretty alright case for your other terminology but i still think this is sketchy, Guaido is A) an elected parliament member who B) was elected as President of the National Assembly, which makes 'unelected' an odd smear unless you mean he didn't run against Maduro in 2018 (which is true, he did not) Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 08:20 on Jan 26, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 08:14
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:To be fair, that's not entirely accurate. New sanctions were introduced under Trump on the PDVSA and the country as a whole that prevented or greatly hindered their ability to deal with US companies and banks. I think this was brought up earlier in the thread? There was also that diplomatic cable where US diplomats boasted how effective these new sanctions are in hastening the government's path to default. Well, that's what I get for spending the day watching domestic politics instead. I still take issue with calling what the opposition is doing a "coup", however. It's much closer to a democratic insurrection, although terminology arguments are always always always navel-gazing bullshit. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 08:24 on Jan 26, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 08:22
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It should also be mentioned that even targeted sanctions on specific people or labeling Venezuela as part of a “troika of tyranny” or whatever - you don’t have to explicitly sanction a nation - at that point the vast majority of institutions aren’t going to touch you with a ten foot pole, it’s too risky and creates a huge amount of uncertainty.
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Jan 26, 2019 08:24
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GreyjoyBastard posted:while there's not really anything concrete in the article, yeah, we can reasonably assume that at the absolute least the BoE is sufficiently spooked to waffle and drag their heels because of renewed USA enthusiasm Circumstances are still evolving. The source for this story is an anonymous official. People in the Trump administration are actively saying that they are trying to financially strangle maduro. We don’t know if they’ll succeed yet, but we know that they are trying.
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Jan 26, 2019 08:26
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GreyjoyBastard posted:while there's not really anything concrete in the article, yeah, we can reasonably assume that at the absolute least the BoE is sufficiently spooked to waffle and drag their heels because of renewed USA enthusiasm I wonder how much of this was due to US requests and how much was natural reluctance by the Bank of England's juju men to allow this kind of commodity flight, especially while hurtling towards a no deal Brexit.
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Jan 26, 2019 08:27
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THS posted:It should also be mentioned that even targeted sanctions on specific people or labeling Venezuela as part of a “troika of tyranny” or whatever - you don’t have to explicitly sanction a nation - at that point the vast majority of institutions aren’t going to touch you with a ten foot pole, it’s too risky and creates a huge amount of uncertainty. Same institutions had already stop touching them in 2015, for the obvious reason that it’s a bad bet to loan money to people leveraged up to their eyeballs who are already beginning to default. Vincent Van Goatse posted:Well, that's what I get for spending the day watching domestic politics instead. Arguments over whether this constitutes a coup are just about whether this is good or bad. Even if we could answer the question it would tell us nothing. There have been many good and bad coup d’etat throughout history. Squalid fucked around with this message at 08:36 on Jan 26, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 08:29
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There isn't any conceivable future where things are going to get better for Venezuela so long as the United States keeps turning the screws. Guaido lacked the support of both the military and the mass popular base which would have pressured the government into conceding to his demands. They started with a weak hand in the expectation that American support would force the government to cry uncle and give in, but that kind of process is going to take weeks if not months to bloom to fruition. In the meantime a lot more people are going to starve and die while social fault lines become more violent due to worsening conditions, and Guaido will be seen as the American agent who engineered the crisis by at least half the population. This crisis will likely end in civil war, and if a transition of power does happen somehow without a war breaking out then Guaido's interim government will already be delegitimized. The coalition he leads is only together in order to overthrow the PSUV, and afterwards will immediately fall apart with its constituent parties jockeying for control of the government. What then happens if elections are held and the PSUV wins? If there was any concern on behalf of the United States government for the welfare of the Venezuelan people, then we'd cut our losses and lift the sanctions regime - but the Trump administration would rather see Venezuela destroyed than leave a PSUV government in control of its national oil reserves.
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Jan 26, 2019 08:33
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Squalid posted:Your information is out of date. The US is now trying to cut all access by the Maduro government to any money. This will inevitably cause problems for people outside the PSUV leadership. This effort will have effects that ripple through the whole economy. Would you prefer Maduro was able to liquidate all of Venezeulas accumulated international assets? And it should be noted that the Venezuelan opposition, which the UK now supports, asked the Bank of England directly a month ago not to allow Maduro to do that, and that's a sentiment likely shared in their discussions with the UK government. https://www.univision.com/univision-news/latin-america/dont-let-venezuela-steal-gold-opposition-asks-british-bank
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Jan 26, 2019 08:33
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Is Maduro gonna stuff 1.2 billion dollars worth of gold bullion into his pockets? He can pack them in next to the empanadas.
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Jan 26, 2019 08:41
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:There isn't any conceivable future where things are going to get better for Venezuela so long as the United States keeps turning the screws. Guaido lacked the support of both the military and the mass popular base which would have pressured the government into conceding to his demands. They started with a weak hand in the expectation that American support would force the government to cry uncle and give in, but that kind of process is going to take weeks if not months to bloom to fruition. In the meantime a lot more people are going to starve and die while social fault lines become more violent due to worsening conditions, and Guaido will be seen as the American agent who engineered the crisis by at least half the population. This crisis will likely end in civil war, and if a transition of power does happen somehow without a war breaking out then Guaido's interim government will already be delegitimized. The coalition he leads is only together in order to overthrow the PSUV, and afterwards will immediately fall apart with its constituent parties jockeying for control of the government. What then happens if elections are held and the PSUV wins? I wouldn't make any assumptions about who the military supports. In many coups the majority of personnel prefer to take no position and go along with whoever appears to be winning, and if a few proactive units that take it upon themselves to seize the state they often meet with meek acquiescence from everyone else. We know there is discontent within lower ranks, unfortunately it is hard to gage its depth and breadth.. https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/08/politics/trump-venezuela-officers-secret-meetings-maduro-coup/index.html These meetings fell through, but combined with the recent mutiny and refugee soldiers releasing videos its clear there are plenty of people in the army who'd like the see a change in government. I think a civil war is possible. However it is also possible a military coup would be met with little internal resistance. Chavez has tried to build up supportive paramilitaries that could resist a military government with Guaido as a figurehead, but I'm not sure how capable or motivated they really are. Regardless of the outcome the PSUV is not going to be able to control the national reserves anytime in the near future. That boat has sailed. Venezuela needs foreign capital and expertise to get production running again and nobody is going to provide it for promises and debt, they're going to demand control of the oil itself. This will be true whether its US companies or Chinese or Russian. Volkerball posted:Would you prefer Maduro was able to liquidate all of Venezeulas accumulated international assets? And it should be noted that the Venezuelan opposition, which the UK now supports, asked the Bank of England directly a month ago not to allow Maduro to do that, and that's a sentiment likely shared in their discussions with the UK government. I'd rather not express a preference at this time. Squalid fucked around with this message at 08:54 on Jan 26, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 08:51
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:In the meantime a lot more people are going to starve and die while social fault lines become more violent due to worsening conditions, and Guaido will be seen as the American agent who engineered the crisis by at least half the population. Yeah I'm pretty sure half of Venezuelans are not going to think he engineered 'the crisis' that has been ongoing for years now. People aren't blind and stupid.
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Jan 26, 2019 08:55
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Squalid posted:I think a civil war is possible. However it is also possible a military coup would be met with little internal resistance. Chavez has tried to build up supportive paramilitaries that could resist a military government with Guaido as a figurehead, but I'm not sure how capable or motivated they really are. A lot of that probably depends on what exactly is at stake. If it's just the PSUV being marginalized and kept out of government then I doubt many people will be willing to fight and die for it, but if it comes to trying to dismantle permanent social gains like the communes then many people will defend them with deadly force. Pedro De Heredia posted:Yeah I'm pretty sure half of Venezuelans are not going to think he engineered 'the crisis' that has been ongoing for years now. People aren't blind and stupid. You're right. It's the United States that engineered the crisis, and he'll be seen as their puppet.
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Jan 26, 2019 08:57
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:There isn't any conceivable future where things are going to get better for Venezuela so long as the United States keeps turning the screws. Guaido lacked the support of both the military and the mass popular base which would have pressured the government into conceding to his demands. They started with a weak hand in the expectation that American support would force the government to cry uncle and give in, but that kind of process is going to take weeks if not months to bloom to fruition. In the meantime a lot more people are going to starve and die while social fault lines become more violent due to worsening conditions, and Guaido will be seen as the American agent who engineered the crisis by at least half the population. This crisis will likely end in civil war, and if a transition of power does happen somehow without a war breaking out then Guaido's interim government will already be delegitimized. The coalition he leads is only together in order to overthrow the PSUV, and afterwards will immediately fall apart with its constituent parties jockeying for control of the government. What then happens if elections are held and the PSUV wins? Is there any conceivable future where Maduro is still leading the country? What about the people already starving and dying? What about the already complete poo poo social fault lines where you're either with the government and rich or on your way to eat poo poo? Why the gently caress would the US lift the sanctions and what would that accomplish if the country was in default in January 2018, long before the Venezuelan government was forbidden from doing business in the US? Why do you want a bankrupt nation to issue more debt? Do you understand that Maduro does not have the money to pay his debtors because he spent it all? Do you know who those debtors are? You're talking like if you have a crystal ball, you wanna tell me the score for the Chelsea game tomorrow too? Pener Kropoopkin posted:A lot of that probably depends on what exactly is at stake. If it's just the PSUV being marginalized and kept out of government then I doubt many people will be willing to fight and die for it, but if it comes to trying to dismantle permanent social gains like the communes then many people will defend them with deadly force. Lmao at the idea of anybody defending PSUV with their lives. Man you don't know poo poo. The second Maduro falls and they stop having the power to give handouts for votes, they'll disappear. They're already the minority coalition in the National Assembly.
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Jan 26, 2019 09:02
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fnox posted:Is there any conceivable future where Maduro is still leading the country? What about the people already starving and dying? What about the already complete poo poo social fault lines where you're either with the government and rich or on your way to eat poo poo? Why the gently caress would the US lift the sanctions and what would that accomplish if the country was in default in January 2018, long before the Venezuelan government was forbidden from doing business in the US? Why do you want a bankrupt nation to issue more debt? Do you understand that Maduro does not have the money to pay his debtors because he spent it all? Do you know who those debtors are? They also had a 40% turnout in the Constituent Assembly elections to support them. The mass base of support for the PSUV isn't some kind of phantom. You're right that there isn't any conceivable future where Maduro is still leading the country, which is why it's so monstrously stupid to wage economic war on them, delegitimize the opposition, and send the nation spiraling into a far worse condition than you're willing to conceive of. Pener Kropoopkin fucked around with this message at 09:10 on Jan 26, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 09:07
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:They also had a 40% turnout in the Constituent Assembly elections to support them. The mass base of support for the PSUV isn't some kind of phantom. You're right that there isn't any conceivable future where Maduro is still leading the country, which is why it's so monstrously stupid to wage economic war on the country, delegitimize the opposition, and send the nation spiraling into a far worse condition than you're willing to conceive of. This is the worst the country has ever been, by any and all metrics, this is worse than the worst time when the neoliberals were in power. A 40% turnout (For a one party state, that's loving abysmal) based on how many coerced votes? How many people voted just to keep their jobs? How many voted because they were told their CLAP bags were going to be removed otherwise? You wanna see how they measure when they don't control four out of five public powers? Oh boy and you're willing to go down the economic war path too. Tell me all about it, I'm thrilled to hear your theory as to how the US is responsible for our hyperinflation and chronic economic stupidity. Please do explain why the government stopped publishing economic data exactly around the time Maduro took power. Do you know what the poverty rate is, just now?
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Jan 26, 2019 09:13
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fnox posted:This is the worst the country has ever been, by any and all metrics, this is worse than the worst time when the neoliberals were in power. A 40% turnout (For a one party state, that's loving abysmal) based on how many coerced votes? How many people voted just to keep their jobs? How many voted because they were told their CLAP bags were going to be removed otherwise? You wanna see how they measure when they don't control four out of five public powers? However bad you think things are right now, they're going to get worse. They can always get worse. Things didn't have to be worse because of American meddling, but now they are, and the opposition that colluded with the United States is going to have to deal with the consequences of it.
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Jan 26, 2019 09:27
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:However bad you think things are right now, they're going to get worse. They can always get worse. Things didn't have to be worse because of American meddling, but now they are, and the opposition that colluded with the United States is going to have to deal with the consequences of it. Funny how the PSUV's corruption and failed policies that share (at minimum) a significant portion of the blame for things getting worse don't mean that the PSUV is "going to have to deal with the consequences of it" in your eyes.
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Jan 26, 2019 09:32
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:Funny how the PSUV's corruption and failed policies that share (at minimum) a significant portion of the blame for things getting worse don't mean that the PSUV is "going to have to deal with the consequences of it" in your eyes. These are the consequences.
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Jan 26, 2019 09:33
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:These are the consequences. Ah, sorry, I've misunderstood the meaning of your post as being prescriptive rather than descriptive since you were defending the PSUV before.
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Jan 26, 2019 09:35
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:However bad you think things are right now, they're going to get worse. They can always get worse. Things didn't have to be worse because of American meddling, but now they are, and the opposition that colluded with the United States is going to have to deal with the consequences of it. However bad you think things are right now, they're worse than you think. You're backing the loving elites, Maduro and his cronies are the elites, they have the yatchs, they have their kids studying abroad, they have the expensive watches and shoes, they're the only ones getting fatter in a starving nation. They lied to you, the revolution never loving happened, an even smaller group than before Chavez took power and took all the money with them. These are not your socialist heroes, they're crooks. Please explain the economic war, this is where Pevan gets owned every time. Oh, and don't forget the current poverty rate, I'd love to hear it.
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Jan 26, 2019 09:36
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fnox posted:Please explain the economic war It's happening right in front of your face as we speak. The freeze on government assets and their ability to refinance which is stemming purely from American pressure is going to send Venezuela into a tailspin. You can keep saying it's worse than anybody thinks all you like, but it will be worse than you think it could be, because of American intervention.
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Jan 26, 2019 09:51
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