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Der Waffle Mous posted:ok cool that doesn't tell my anything about the state of venezuela's indigenous peoples though. Yeah the Constituent Assembly has indigenous representatives, just no opposition ones. The National Assembly eventually just reinstated the indigenous representatives through the TSJ in exile. As to how they're treated, they've always been shorthanded. I think our buddy Vlex has had some recent dealings with at least the southern tribes. Guajiros (Or Wayuu) are perhaps the largest tribe, they have a strange place in Zulia's culture, as they're almost overwhelmingly known for working security to the point of having the word "guajiro" being synonymous with the word "guard" over there. The eastern tribes (Waraos) are usually the most mistreated, there was an AIDS epidemic in Delta Amacuro that I doubt was ever resolved, despite being the most famous, as their houses built on stilts over water are what gave the country its name.
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Jan 26, 2019 23:52
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:The successes of American instigated Latin American regime change has a death toll in the millions. Elliot Abrams specifically has blood on his hands. Are we supposed to assume that the Trump administration appointing a Reagan-era genocidaire has any interest in a bloodless resolution? Whether it will be resolved bloodlessly is a different question than whether it will end with Guiado in power. edit: This FP article is similar to my interpretation of recent events: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/25/maduros-power-in-venezuela-seems-stable-for-now/ quote:The military—long the kingmaker of Venezuelan politics—did not defect en masse. These protests, the largest in at least two years and held in several onetime bastions of government supporters, were met with repression and did little to faze Maduro. On Wednesday night, he gave a speech to several thousand gathered supporters—a fraction of the turnout for the marches against him—with a rundown of his bellicose rhetorical hits. “We are defending the right to the very existence of our Bolivarian republic,” he said from the balcony of Miraflores, the opulent presidential palace. “Do you want a puppet government controlled by Washington?” The article also makes the point that Latin American recognition of Guiado is soon going to run into trouble with how they manage Venezuelan diplomats. They may not be able to sustain their recognition, or may revert to defacto recognition of Maduro's government. Unless something happens in the near future. Squalid fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 26, 2019 23:57
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fnox posted:What experience would that be other than reading Jacobin? No bro, our experiences aren't weighted equally. You haven't experienced what we've experienced, and that's why our opinions differ so much. The reason why every Venezuelan in this thread and every Venezuelan you find abroad hates Maduro is because of this. You don't want to understand this, so you rationalize it as "they're elites". Surely Maduro must be doing something wrong if of the millions of displaced Venezuelans only a couple dozen ever show any support for Maduro, right? It's sampling bias. The Venezuelans who are English speaking and on Anglo websites are more likely to be wealthy and privileged. There's also no denying that the PSUV has an actual base of support in Venezuela, so of course there are "real Venezuelans" who support Maduro. They also tend to be poorer than the opposition. Ironically the very argument you're making here can easily be turned around on you. Good reason to drop it imo!
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Jan 26, 2019 23:58
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Phlegmish posted:You're positively giddy with this turn of events, aren't you? It's easy for diasporates whose lives are no longer at risk to believe no price is too great to pay for the liberation of their homeland. Time and time again it's been proven that the costs of American intervention are greater than the status quo, and it's the height of hubris to assume that this time things will be different with Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo, Lil' Marco, and Elliot Abrams at the helm.
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Jan 27, 2019 00:01
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Chomskyan posted:It's sampling bias. The Venezuelans who are English speaking and on Anglo websites are more likely to be wealthy and privileged. Why are we wealthy and privileged? Is it impossible for someone to learn English otherwise? Have you even cared to hear the stories of some of the people here, like, what exactly does it mean to be privileged when we're taking way more poo poo than you are just because we weren't born in America? They also tend to be poorer than the opposition...Why? That may have applied before, but it absolutely doesn't now. Right now, everyone in Venezuela is poor. I'm not saying there's no Venezuelans supporting Maduro, you're saying the ones that support the opposition have to be rich for some reason. Do you not think that the poor are the ones getting hit the hardest by this crisis?
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Jan 27, 2019 00:06
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fnox posted:Why are we wealthy and privileged? Is it impossible for someone to learn English otherwise? Have you even cared to hear the stories of some of the people here, like, what exactly does it mean to be privileged when we're taking way more poo poo than you are just because we weren't born in America? Are you clueless as to how education works in this world or???? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 27, 2019 00:10
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fnox posted:Why are we wealthy and privileged? Is it impossible for someone to learn English otherwise? Have you even cared to hear the stories of some of the people here, like, what exactly does it mean to be privileged when we're taking way more poo poo than you are just because we weren't born in America? wherein we learn that not only does Venezuela have no conception of race, Venezuela also has no conception of class fortunately, the US has signed someone who is extremely good at shoring up those divisions to the Venezuela beat going forwards
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Jan 27, 2019 00:12
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:It's easy for diasporates whose lives are no longer at risk to believe no price is too great to pay for the liberation of their homeland. Time and time again it's been proven that the costs of American intervention are greater than the status quo, and it's the height of hubris to assume that this time things will be different with Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo, Lil' Marco, and Elliot Abrams at the helm. OK. I'm not in favor of an American military intervention, either. I'm just disappointed that the thread is basically about the US now, with Venezuela being a setting at best. It's a real country with real people with real ideologies, convictions and motivations who don't deserve to be reduced to the status of American chess pieces just because they happen to believe things that go against your worldview. For the record, I also understand the original groundswell of support for Chavismo two decades ago. That was real, too, and in many ways a justified reaction against inequalities within Venezuelan society. I just don't think the Maduro regime has actually been competent at addressing those or that it currently has any legitimacy left. Chomskyan posted:It's sampling bias. The Venezuelans who are English speaking and on Anglo websites are more likely to be wealthy and privileged. This is not the first time someone's come up with this argument because actual Venezuelan goons didn't agree with them, and it's just as condescending and stupid this time.
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Jan 27, 2019 00:20
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The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has just announced a 30 days period of negotiations between the US and Maduro. They're setting up something called the "Oficina de Intereses" (roughly, "Interests Office", as in, office where we talk about shared interests). Maduro is backing down from his threat to kick US staff and break all diplomatic relations with Washington. If there's no agreement made in these 30 days, the ministry says, then they'll really kick them out. I'm reminded of the saying "Perro que ladra no muerde" (the dog that barks doesn't bite). Maduro isn't guided by any kind of ideological opposition to the US. He's guided by greed. He'll do anything to save his neck and keep his stolen money.
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Jan 27, 2019 00:26
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The whole "opposition is only weatlhy elites" stops making sense when you consider that 90% of the population of the country live in poverty.
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Jan 27, 2019 00:29
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Chuck Boone posted:The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has just announced a 30 days period of negotiations between the US and Maduro. They're setting up something called the "Oficina de Intereses" (roughly, "Interests Office", as in, office where we talk about shared interests). Maduro is backing down from his threat to kick US staff and break all diplomatic relations with Washington. If there's no agreement made in these 30 days, the ministry says, then they'll really kick them out. You think there's a managed exit/ airplane to russia loaded with gold scenario possible here? From what I'm hearing it might actually be a good outcome, if it also covers his circle.
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Jan 27, 2019 00:30
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Discendo Vox posted:You think there's a managed exit/ airplane to russia loaded with gold scenario possible here? From what I'm hearing it might actually be a good outcome, if it also covers his circle. The opposition controlled legislature has passed an amnesty bill. Something like that is probably the goal. Just let the regime walk out with their looted cash and try and rebuild.
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Jan 27, 2019 00:31
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Discendo Vox posted:You think there's a managed exit/ airplane to russia loaded with gold scenario possible here? From what I'm hearing it might actually be a good outcome, if it also covers his circle. Yeah, the amnesty bill is law and the purpose of it is to convince regime officials that the time is now for them to do the right thing. I have no idea what's going to happen but I think a negotiated exit followed by free and fair election (not conducted by the regime's electoral body) is the best possible outcome here. Anything that can help bring that about is a good thing. If these people don't talk it out they're going to try to fight it out.
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Jan 27, 2019 00:36
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Basing perceptions of ongoing events on things that happened years prior is delusional. The opposition isn't well loved by a majority of Venezuelans because of their prior incompetence & inconsistencies, and they will be even more hated for being American stooges while the sanctions regime ramps up. Guaido literally snuck across the border to do talks with the United States and our allies where this coup attempt was strategized. The Trump administration masterminding this crisis is plain as day. Amazing, you just admitted you don't believe facts should be used in discussing things! The opposition in fact is so "loved" by the population to have won a supermajority in the legislature fair and square. All of your ranting about how they're fake or something is irrelevant. Seriously though, you really went out and said basing thoughts on the past is bad - amazing. How much does a degree in praexology cost these days? No wonder you try to claim that the Trump Administration placed the current legislature composition, despite the fact that their election occurred before the US election - and that is what you're claiming when you say Guaido was "picked by Trump". DoctorStrangelove posted:The whole "opposition is only weatlhy elites" stops making sense when you consider that 90% of the population of the country live in poverty. Clearly Venezuela is just so rich that they have 5 million wealthy elites to throw around.
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Jan 27, 2019 00:41
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fishmech posted:Amazing, you just admitted you don't believe facts should be used in discussing things! The opposition in fact is so "loved" by the population to have won a supermajority in the legislature fair and square. All of your ranting about how they're fake or something is irrelevant. It's a simple thing really, you can't assume that the way people thought a few years ago is the same way they're going to think now under wildly different circumstances with a whole other power at play. I'd also point out that the opposition no longer has a super majority in the National Assembly because the second biggest party left the DUR over its dysfunction. There is certainly a majority of seats which are not allied with the Patriotic Pole, but that's not necessarily a unified opposition which is all going to be behind American intervention into Venezuelan affairs.
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Jan 27, 2019 01:07
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Just saw this poll come up. First one since Guaido's declaration on Wednesday. Some highlights: 1. "As a citizen, after January 23: Who do you recognize today as the legitimate president of Venezuela?" 83.7% said Guaido, 11.4% said "I don't know", 4.8% said Maduro 2. "As a citizen, do you believe that the Armed Forces will recognize Guaido's interim government?" 88.8% said no, 5.8% said yes 3. "Would you approve of an intervention in Venezuela from various countries to bring humanitarian aid to all Venezuelans?" 82.9% said yes, 14.2% said no This one is really interesting, on the amnesty law: "Do you agree with the National Assembly approving an amnesty or forgiveness law, that would help sectors that have supported the governments of Nicolas Maduro and Hugo Chavez and who now want to help a transition?" 70.4% said no, 16.7% said yes. The survey was conducted between January 24 and 25 and had a sample size of 870 randomly-selected interviews. It has a margin of error of 3.7% and a level of confidence of 97%. The sample size is smaller than normal (most polls from Venezuela have a sample size ~1,200, from what I remember). The poll was done by Meganalisis. Personally, I wouldn't put too much stock in this poll. I think the reasonable thing to do here is to wait for a couple more to come out with a larger sample size to be able to see definitive trends. Having said that, the overwhelming rejection to the amnesty law caught me by surprise. We're going to need some really sturdy leadership to stick to the amnesty law if we ever do enter a period of transition. EDIT: I also just saw that the military attache at the Venezuelan embassy in Washington has resigned, and that he's backing Guaido. His name is Col. Jose Luis Silva Silva. (Also: apologies if this has been posted already, I'm doing a lot of skimming of the thread these days) Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 01:21 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 01:14
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Chuck Boone posted:Just saw this poll come up. First one since Guaido's declaration on Wednesday. How was this poll conducted, door to door? Edit: Nevermind, I see it was by phone. Do all or a vast majority of Venezuelans have phones? Mean Baby fucked around with this message at 01:28 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 01:24
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:It's a simple thing really, you can't assume that the way people thought a few years ago is the same way they're going to think now under wildly different circumstances with a whole other power at play. I'd also point out that the opposition no longer has a super majority in the National Assembly because the second biggest party left the DUR over its dysfunction. There is certainly a majority of seats which are not allied with the Patriotic Pole, but that's not necessarily a unified opposition which is all going to be behind American intervention into Venezuelan affairs. There has been absolutely no indication that the support has changed for the worse, especially since things have only gotten worse under the admin's regime since that point.
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Jan 27, 2019 01:28
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Presenting Nipples posted:How was this poll conducted, door to door? The info from Meganalisis says "Call Tracking" in English, and then it says "via residential telephones". So I guess that's landlines, and I don't know what Call Tracking means. The fact that it's capitalized probably means that it's some kind of proprietary polling software?
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Jan 27, 2019 01:28
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Presenting Nipples posted:How was this poll conducted, door to door? According to CONATEL, as of 2014 most Venezeulans have mobile phones http://www.conatel.gob.ve/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Cuadro11-Telefon%C3%ADaM%C3%B3vil-Anual.ods (this is an excel doc), but I wouldn't have the answer to landline connections. edit: Ah, so it looks like the number of main lines in-use as of 2011 was somewhere around 7 million, so I'd figure the total number of potential respondents would be in the ballpark of 10-12 million in 2019. It could be much higher, however, as we don't have accurate reporting of those kinds of figures from Venezuela for the last few years. PBJ fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 01:41
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Presenting Nipples posted:How was this poll conducted, door to door? 90% approval of a politician should be a dead give away that the poll is bullshit. Something else to think about. You're living under a despotic government that jails and kills dissents. Someone randomly calls you to see if you support the government and you tell them no I don't. Does that make sense? axelord fucked around with this message at 01:55 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 01:45
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Venezuela has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world , with rampant corruption ,massive food shortages and hyper inflation. And most of this happened in the past five years. There are mass protests and the citizenry demanding change. The rest of the world (besides Putin) says the country is in crisis. The misery index for the country rates it as the most rapidly declining country, by a ten factor over the next worse. But the tankies in this thread think they know better. Because they really identified with dying in Stalingrad when they played call of duty in college while they were studying Marxism. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 27, 2019 01:53
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axelord posted:90% approval of a politician should be a dead give away that the poll is bullshit. Recognition of legitimacy is not the same thing as approval of performance.
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Jan 27, 2019 01:56
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zapplez posted:Venezuela has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world , with rampant corruption ,massive food shortages and hyper inflation. And most of this happened in the past five years. There are mass protests and the citizenry demanding change. The rest of the world (besides Putin) says the country is in crisis. The misery index for the country rates it as the most rapidly declining country, by a ten factor over the next worse. Most people don't want to rock the boat or get in trouble. If the government is jailing and killing dissents how stupid would you have to be to tell a random stranger that calls you yes I am a dissident.
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Jan 27, 2019 02:00
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Chuck Boone posted:Personally, I wouldn't put too much stock in this poll. I think the reasonable thing to do here is to wait for a couple more to come out with a larger sample size to be able to see definitive trends. e: Oops, misread it - it says "a foreign intervention to bring humanitarian aid," which is broad but not the same thing as supporting an international intervention to depose Maduro. 
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Jan 27, 2019 02:06
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Chuck Boone posted:The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has just announced a 30 days period of negotiations between the US and Maduro. They're setting up something called the "Oficina de Intereses" (roughly, "Interests Office", as in, office where we talk about shared interests). Maduro is backing down from his threat to kick US staff and break all diplomatic relations with Washington. If there's no agreement made in these 30 days, the ministry says, then they'll really kick them out. this seems like good news in the very immediate short term at least
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Jan 27, 2019 02:09
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PBJ posted:According to CONATEL, as of 2014 most Venezeulans have mobile phones http://www.conatel.gob.ve/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Cuadro11-Telefon%C3%ADaM%C3%B3vil-Anual.ods (this is an excel doc), but I wouldn't have the answer to landline connections. Wouldn't this go against the whole "Most Venezuelans don't own a computer so they can't post on the internet" argument? zapplez posted:Venezuela has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world , with rampant corruption ,massive food shortages and hyper inflation. And most of this happened in the past five years. There are mass protests and the citizenry demanding change. The rest of the world (besides Putin) says the country is in crisis. The misery index for the country rates it as the most rapidly declining country, by a ten factor over the next worse. I believe you mean Red Orchestra 2?
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Jan 27, 2019 02:26
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Presenting Nipples posted:How was this poll conducted, door to door? Brown people in Bananalands having access to technology? I'm shocked!
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Jan 27, 2019 02:28
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punk rebel ecks posted:I believe you mean Red Orchestra 2? Goddamn is that a good game.
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Jan 27, 2019 02:30
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Chuck Boone posted:The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has just announced a 30 days period of negotiations between the US and Maduro. They're setting up something called the "Oficina de Intereses" (roughly, "Interests Office", as in, office where we talk about shared interests). Maduro is backing down from his threat to kick US staff and break all diplomatic relations with Washington. If there's no agreement made in these 30 days, the ministry says, then they'll really kick them out. Maduro will meet with Trump in person. Trump will renounce his support of the opposition and say Maduro is a "great guy". The Trump hotel Caracas announced the next day will totally be a coincidence, as will the mysterious large deposits in Trump's bank account.
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Jan 27, 2019 02:35
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Negrostrike posted:Brown people in Bananalands having access to technology? I'm shocked! It’s fairly common to go door to door in India given the socioeconomic differences. If you use the internet you are skewing the sample heavily towards English speakers. The best polls in India require boots on the ground. So if only 30% of the population can be reached by landline (10 out of 30 million) then it’s basically only surveying a specific class of respondents....
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Jan 27, 2019 02:36
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HisMajestyBOB posted:Maduro will meet with Trump in person. Trump will renounce his support of the opposition and say Maduro is a "great guy". The Trump hotel Caracas announced the next day will totally be a coincidence, as will the mysterious large deposits in Trump's bank account. this would be the smart play for maduro yeah
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Jan 27, 2019 02:39
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axelord posted:Most people don't want to rock the boat or get in trouble. If the government is jailing and killing dissents how stupid would you have to be to tell a random stranger that calls you yes I am a dissident. Though I'm not sure how trusty worthy that poll is, mass surveillance and intimidation has never been the modus operandi of the Maduro government, even as it began undermining democracy. Political arrests to my knowledge have mostly been targeted at the opposition leadership and representatives. At lower levels, it was more about controlling access to jobs, navigating bureaucracy, patronage, and smuggling. Normal people don't get arrested for badmouthing Maduro, but if they don't vote the right way they may get fired. Still I wonder what proportion of Venezuelans have landlands, I assume it is significantly smaller than the number with mobile phones but I'm not sure how that might skew results of a poll, assuming it was conducted in good faith.
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Jan 27, 2019 02:41
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Squalid posted:Though I'm not sure how trusty worthy that poll is, mass surveillance and intimidation has never been the modus operandi of the Maduro government, even as it began undermining democracy. Political arrests to my knowledge have mostly been targeted at the opposition leadership and representatives. At lower levels, it was more about controlling access to jobs, navigating bureaucracy, patronage, and smuggling. Normal people don't get arrested for badmouthing Maduro, but if they don't vote the right way they may get fired. I've read some accounts over the past couple of years about surveillance and intimidation within the Venezuela military. Basically, the government is too inept to even keep all of the military well-fed and happy, so the military gets monitored pretty closely to make sure no one gets any funny ideas.
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Jan 27, 2019 02:50
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This discussion about suppression by the local government started when a poll showed that 80% don’t support Maduro. The poll would seem to disprove the theory that respondents were afraid of government retaliation.... The bigger problem with the poll is it appears to not be at all representative of the Venezuelan population due to sampling bias and is therefore worthless for measuring anything.
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Jan 27, 2019 02:59
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Presenting Nipples posted:This discussion about suppression by the local government started when a poll showed that 80% don’t support Maduro. The poll would seem to disprove the theory that respondents were afraid of government retaliation.... You could probably say that opponents of the government don't fear government retaliation. I think that could be a fair conclusion from looking at the poll.
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Jan 27, 2019 03:15
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Labradoodle posted:I've read some accounts over the past couple of years about surveillance and intimidation within the Venezuela military. Basically, the government is too inept to even keep all of the military well-fed and happy, so the military gets monitored pretty closely to make sure no one gets any funny ideas. Yeah that's not surprising even if the general public doesn't get pressured in the same way. This is pretty normal for shallow states. I wonder, are there any other places besides this thread where I can read what Venezuelans are saying themselves, in Spanish? Like maybe a subReddit or something? Gotta control for some of those biases etc, maybe I could cross post them here.
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Jan 27, 2019 03:54
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Schadenboner posted:Goddamn is that a good game. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLYwH6xmyqU
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Jan 27, 2019 03:55
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axelord posted:90% approval of a politician should be a dead give away that the poll is bullshit. It was 83.7%. I wouldn't read too much into that figure itself. Given the tension in the country, I can imagine that there's people included in that percentage who side with Guaido simply because he's not Maduro, so that's probably inflating the response somewhat. Also, a poll had Maduro at 19% approval rating in December 2018, which is roughly 80% disapproval, and now suddenly the 83.7% for Guaido isn't outside the realm of possibility. Also, one interesting phenomenon that you'll catch when you watch "man on the street" interviews in Venezuela is that whenever journalists interview someone, they end the interview by asking the person on air their full name and their national I.D. number. So, you'll see people go into huge rants against Maduro, saying that he's a dictator and that he needs to leave, that they always vote for the opposition, etc., and then end the interview with "I'm Pedro Perez, and my I.D. number is 1234567". Like Squalid said, we're not at the stage where the regime is watching ordinary people closely (i.e., tapping their phones, trying to catch them expressing dissent by faking polls, etc.). Anyway, as I mentioned before, I'm going to wait until we see a couple of more polls before putting too much faith in those numbers. HisMajestyBOB posted:Maduro will meet with Trump in person. Trump will renounce his support of the opposition and say Maduro is a "great guy". The Trump hotel Caracas announced the next day will totally be a coincidence, as will the mysterious large deposits in Trump's bank account. Oh man. I'm waiting for this to happen now!
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Jan 27, 2019 04:20
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Chuck Boone posted:
More polls won't mean anything if there are methodological problems. I went to the website of this company but I didn't really feel I figured anything out. How reliable do you think they are? Do you think they may have institutional biases, or do you think their sample is representative?
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Jan 27, 2019 04:35
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