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So basically, your source says there is no major impact of the sanctions.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:13
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Rust Martialis posted:So basically, your source says there is no major impact of the sanctions. Not being able to make new trades and purchases would be a major impact for any business.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:14
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:I posted an article citing the sanctions a couple pages ago, but I will humor you and link to an article from another source. This is not specific sanctions impacting Venezuelan oil exports. Alternatively, explain how the limitations to PDVSA trades in the US vaguely mentioned in the linked article are accomplishing this.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:17
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Not being able to make new trades and purchases would be a major impact for any business. No, your source says the opposite: quote:Petróleos de Venezuela, the national oil company responsible for most of Venezuela’s economic activity and foreign exchange, is impacted by the sanctions only in a limited way. Maybe you should read it again?
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Jan 27, 2019 19:17
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Not being able to make new trades and purchases would be a major impact for any business. Sure is weird how you deny the real reason: the complete collapse of the currency and banking system domestically, due to absolutely insane and corruption prone schemes of price controls without subsidy, and foreign exchange control with special rights for administartion-favored enterprises and individuals.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:18
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fishmech posted:Sure is weird how you deny the real reason: the complete collapse of the currency and banking system domestically, due to absolutely insane and corruption prone schemes of price controls without subsidy, and foreign exchange control with special rights for administartion-favored enterprises and individuals. He can't blame *that* on US imperialism though, so it's a non-issue. He isn't interested in Venezuela except as a club to beat the US with. Venezuelans simply have no agency. As another poster said, the opposition to Maduro only exists as "expats, bondholders, and the wealthy". Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 19:21
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fishmech posted:Sure is weird how you deny the real reason: the complete collapse of the currency and banking system domestically, due to absolutely insane and corruption prone schemes of price controls without subsidy, and foreign exchange control with special rights for administartion-favored enterprises and individuals. I mean, that's part of it. There's also the lack of upkeep of the extraction and transportation infrastructure - which you could argue could have been impacted by limitations on foreign investment cutting into the company's finances. That is, if you weren't aware of the hundreds of millions supposedly earmarked for that specific thing provided in loans and the deals with Russian and Chinese companies buying off chunks of the PDVSA.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:23
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fishmech posted:Sure is weird how you deny the real reason: the complete collapse of the currency and banking system domestically, due to absolutely insane and corruption prone schemes of price controls without subsidy, and foreign exchange control with special rights for administartion-favored enterprises and individuals. So surely there wouldn't be a need for sanctions at all then. Rust Martialis posted:No, your source says the opposite: The "limited" thing in question is the restriction of the issuing of new debts to Venezuelan Petroleum and the government. You can read it yourself in the Executive Order. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20170825.aspx quote:Section 1 No business can survive without access to the financing it needs to plan and continue ongoing operations. It's perfectly natural that, starved of those finances, the productive capacity of the state oil company would take a nose dive well in excess of the existing declining trend. Ignoring these facts and nitpicking the sanctions involved, is little more than a futile exercise in denial.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:25
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uninterrupted posted:Hm yes those videos of wealthy pasty white venezuelans telling the military to mutiny will surely turn us around on Guaido's policy platform of less public housing, less feeding the hungry, and basically doing whatever the US says. Ah! As the US says! See, this is what I'm talking about. Not even Venezuela can be about Venezuela. It's all about the US, must always continually be kept centrally about the US, where in this thread we can watch people defending Venezuela's right to let Venezuelans die under a brutal, incompetent, authoritarian militant dictator, to protect them from the US. Any further destabilization of Maduro's rule is going to be fundamentally read as the pernicious American influence succeeding in some way which is ultimately bad for them? This is extremely painful to put up with, even absent the delusion that Maduro has benefitted the common welfare of the Venezuelans, as opposed to having absolutely destroyed it through some combination of greed and incompetence that resulted in naked power grabs as the fundament of his continued tenure as leader.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:28
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:So surely there wouldn't be a need for sanctions at all then. What? The sanctions are on the people who looted the means of production.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:29
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Warbadger posted:I mean, that's part of it. There's also the lack of upkeep of the extraction and transportation infrastructure - which you could argue could have been impacted by limitations on foreign investment cutting into the company's finances. That is, if you weren't aware of the hundreds of millions supposedly earmarked for that specific thing provided in loans and the deals with Russian and Chinese companies buying off chunks of the PDVSA. "Hundreds of millions" alone would not be enough to shore up the operations of the state oil company over the course of several months, let alone an entire year. It's apparent that China and Russia do not have the unilateral power to bail out the Venezuelan government and its national industries. fishmech posted:What? The sanctions are on the people who looted the means of production. The sanctions of August 24, 2017 are explicitly on the government and Venezuelan Petroleum. You could read them yourself. What do you think is the long-term purpose of starving the state and its companies of these debts & revenues, if not regime change?
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Jan 27, 2019 19:29
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:So surely there wouldn't be a need for sanctions at all then. None of this is perfectly natural, particularly when dealing with foreign markets and with an abundance of alternatives for funding. The domestic alternatives imploded, of course, but they had ample financial assistance from elsewhere. You may want to actually read the article you linked or perhaps some of the background regarding the state of Venezuelan oil production and the PDVSA prior to those 2017 sanctions! You might be less amusing if you made better arguments, though, so I guess don't do that! ^ And yes, hundreds of millions of dollars would be able to cover the loss of 2 years of foreign investments in the PDVSA pretty handily, particularly considering that it didn't prevent them from all activity on those markets. How much do you think they were receiving prior to these sanctions? Warbadger fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 19:32
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:
Yes, the people who looted the means of production, literally.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:33
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Rust Martialis posted:So to answer my prior question, no, the thread is still infested with people who clearly know more about what Venezuelans need than the actual Venezuelans who have been posting here all the time. But you see, these all rich Venezuelans because most Venezuelans don't have computers (even though most have cell phones), so they can't post on the internet (even though facebook always had a fair share of pro-Chavez supporters back in the day). So these Venezuelans are biased because they are rich so they are automatically right wing. Nevermind that there are plenty of Mexican, Argentinian, Ecuadorian, Brazilian, and even Bolivian posters who support their left wing parties/governments. Venezuelans are the only exception, and instead of it logically being that polling showing that the current government has near universal disapproval being the reason, it must be due to them being right wing rich people who are currently selling their Mercedes so they can move to Miami.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:38
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On top of that, in at least some of the people here, Maduro is being defended because he will bring greater opportunity to imperialism with Chinese or Russian characteristics. The welfare of the actual Venezuelans is irrelevant outside of contrived fictions of greater Extremely Online anti-imperialist aims.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:41
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Kavros posted:Ah! As the US says! See, this is what I'm talking about. Not even Venezuela can be about Venezuela. It's all about the US, must always continually be kept centrally about the US, where in this thread we can watch people defending Venezuela's right to let Venezuelans die under a brutal, incompetent, authoritarian militant dictator, to protect them from the US. Any further destabilization of Maduro's rule is going to be fundamentally read as the pernicious American influence succeeding in some way which is ultimately bad for them? I love how the right wing coup supporters in this thread use "um, stop talking about the US (which is publicly orchestrating the coup and therefore completely legitimate to metion)" to deflect from their lovely politics. Why do you support Guaido's plan to cut food programs for the poor and public housing? Is starving people only bad when it happens under Maduro?
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Jan 27, 2019 19:48
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uninterrupted posted:Why do you support Guaido's plan to cut food programs for the poor and public housing? Citation needed uninterrupted posted:Is starving people only bad when it happens under Maduro? So are you finally coming to term with the fact that he is starving people and you are going to withdraw your support? Or do you just hate minorities so much that this is what you want?
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Jan 27, 2019 19:51
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To be open, I've read this thread for a few years, but since I'm a Canadian who lives in Denmark, I largely lurk, because this is a place to *learn* from. There used to be a good collection of Venezuelan posters here, watching them flee the country or simply go silent has been depressing and frightening. But to some they are all "expats, bondholders, and the wealthy" so their voices can be ignored.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:51
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Kavros posted:On top of that, in at least some of the people here, Maduro is being defended because he will bring greater opportunity to imperialism with Chinese or Russian characteristics. The welfare of the actual Venezuelans is irrelevant outside of contrived fictions of greater Extremely Online anti-imperialist aims. The dilemma with the Left's perspective on "solidarity" and even "socialism", is dealing with what happens when the common people don't support what the Left wants. You mean that the average Venezuelan doesn't want to starve to death and be on the brink of homelessness just to "stick it" to the United States and support an incompetent leader who doesn't give a poo poo about them? Well that's not showing solidarity.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:53
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uninterrupted posted:I love how the right wing coup supporters in this thread use "um, stop talking about the US (which is publicly orchestrating the coup and therefore completely legitimate to metion)" to deflect from their lovely politics. Why do you support Guaido's plan to cut food programs for the poor and public housing? Is starving people only bad when it happens under Maduro? And when exactly was the last time you beat your wife?
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Jan 27, 2019 19:55
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punk rebel ecks posted:The dilemma with the Left's perspective on "solidarity" and even "socialism", is dealing with what happens when the common people don't support what the Left wants. You mean that the average Venezuelan doesn't want to starve to death and be on the brink of homelessness just to "stick it" to the United States and support an incompetent leader who doesn't give a poo poo about them? Well that's not showing solidarity. I think the open question here is how much (and how) the present alternative will help with the whole 'not starving to death' thing.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:55
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punk rebel ecks posted:The dilemma with the Left's perspective on "solidarity" and even "socialism", is dealing with what happens when the common people don't support what the Left wants. You mean that the average Venezuelan doesn't want to starve to death and be on the brink of homelessness just to "stick it" to the United States and support an incompetent leader who doesn't give a poo poo about them? Well that's not showing solidarity. Average Venezuelan support the Maduro, that's why he keeps winning elections.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:56
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the thread got incredibly tiresome to read because both sides are are arguing their points, and ignore anything the other side has to say, whether it has any merit or not. also, someone remove the maduro defending posters already jesus christ. it's true what the venegoons are saying. all of it. maduro's regime has been a monumental fuckup. it must be removed immediately. it's been a fuckup since before any sanctions even took place, and it's only gone downhill from there. however, the hand usa has shown bodes incredibly badly for venezuelans on the ground. the person on their side that's supposed to be helping is a genocidal maniac with a history of corruption on the side, so a literal war in addition to everything maduro's regime already caused is very much on the table now imo. we've gone through this a few days ago, and back then i got convinced this will probably go over well, but since then:   as is usually the case, the imperialists don't give even the tiniest poo poo about the oppressed people, they care how much money they're going to make. for usa oligarchs, war is the best way to make money, and they might get an excuse to go to war here. with russian troops already on the ground, unless some kind of compromise is reached we're probably looking at vietnam 2: spanish boogaloo. uninterrupted posted:I love how the right wing coup supporters in this thread use "um, stop talking about the US (which is publicly orchestrating the coup and therefore completely legitimate to metion)" to deflect from their lovely politics. Why do you support Guaido's plan to cut food programs for the poor and public housing? Is starving people only bad when it happens under Maduro? the "right wing coup" is led by a socdem party that's a member of the socialist international you dumbass
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Jan 27, 2019 19:56
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uninterrupted posted:Why do you support Guaido's plan to cut food programs for the poor and public housing? Because such "anti-poverty" measures have only lead to further exhausting the already scare resources in the country. Because putting in absurd price-ceilings on labor and staple goods has forced investment to flee the country, taking the actual productive economy with it. Because without any productive economy left these "anti-poverty" measures can only be paid for by printing more money which fuels the hyper-inflation crisis. All the "anti-poverty" measures that Chavez and his successor have implemented have only served to destroy Venezuela's productive economy, which is the main cause of the current crisis. You cannot redistribute what does not exist and if it does not pay to make food then no one is going to be making food. The gentleman I'm quoting is not going to pay any attention to this post, it's for anyone else reading who might not have such a hard-on for dekulakization.
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Jan 27, 2019 19:57
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Kavros posted:On top of that, in at least some of the people here, Maduro is being defended because he will bring greater opportunity to imperialism with Chinese or Russian characteristics. The welfare of the actual Venezuelans is irrelevant outside of contrived fictions of greater Extremely Online anti-imperialist aims. Venezuela is going to turn into the Western Hemispheres Syria where every major power (and ideology, in this case) is in jockeying for their own interests while the actual people get hosed 
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Jan 27, 2019 19:58
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Feldegast42 posted:Venezuela is going to turn into the Western Hemispheres Syria where every major power (and ideology, in this case) is in jockeying for their own interests while the actual people get hosed correction to my previous post, it'll be this not vietnam
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Jan 27, 2019 19:59
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Feldegast42 posted:Venezuela is going to turn into the Western Hemispheres Syria where every major power (and ideology, in this case) is in jockeying for their own interests while the actual people get hosed Maybe people were trying to warn against that, oh well.
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Jan 27, 2019 20:00
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DoctorStrangelove posted:Because such "anti-poverty" measures have only lead to further exhausting the already scare resources in the country. Because putting in absurd price-ceilings on labor and staple goods has forced investment to flee the country, taking the actual productive economy with it. Because without any productive economy left these "anti-poverty" measures can only be paid for by printing more money which fuels the hyper-inflation crisis. All the "anti-poverty" measures that Chavez and his successor have implemented have only served to destroy Venezuela's productive economy, which is the main cause of the current crisis. You cannot redistribute what does not exist and if it does not pay to make food then no one is going to be making food. hm, yes, the problem is not enough poor people are starving Truga posted:the "right wing coup" is led by a socdem party that's a member of the socialist international you dumbass Furia posted:Citation needed https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14255 posted:The 35-year-old US-educated lawmaker also criticized government social programs such as the CLAP food distribution program and the Housing Mission, which he slammed as “corruption” schemes. He's a right winger who wants to cut Venezuela's already straining welfare system. Also for anyone who still wants to complain about venezuelanalysis feel free to find any other article that points to concrete policy positions held by Guaido (hint: most western news sources don't post them because they're reprehensible)
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Jan 27, 2019 20:02
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VA is just as bad a news source as the US propaganda rags, hth
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Jan 27, 2019 20:04
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DoctorStrangelove posted:Because such "anti-poverty" measures have only lead to further exhausting the already scare resources in the country. Because putting in absurd price-ceilings on labor and staple goods has forced investment to flee the country, taking the actual productive economy with it. Because without any productive economy left these "anti-poverty" measures can only be paid for by printing more money which fuels the hyper-inflation crisis. All the "anti-poverty" measures that Chavez and his successor have implemented have only served to destroy Venezuela's productive economy, which is the main cause of the current crisis. You cannot redistribute what does not exist and if it does not pay to make food then no one is going to be making food. yeah, shockingly, it turns out that price ceilings below the cost of production combined with not subsidizing production leads to a drop in production this would be just as true if the government owned the company, it would just be more ideologically palatable to funnel government money into subsidies
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Jan 27, 2019 20:06
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Truga posted:the "right wing coup" is led by a socdem party that's a member of the socialist international you dumbass You could read the Party Platform summarized on the Popular Will wikipedia, or the Spanish document posted earlier which was endorsed by Lopez in 2013 yourself. The platform has more in line with neoliberal shock doctrine than any kind of genuine socialist politics. DoctorStrangelove posted:Because such "anti-poverty" measures have only lead to further exhausting the already scare resources in the country. Because putting in absurd price-ceilings on labor and staple goods has forced investment to flee the country, taking the actual productive economy with it. Because without any productive economy left these "anti-poverty" measures can only be paid for by printing more money which fuels the hyper-inflation crisis. All the "anti-poverty" measures that Chavez and his successor have implemented have only served to destroy Venezuela's productive economy, which is the main cause of the current crisis. You cannot redistribute what does not exist and if it does not pay to make food then no one is going to be making food. So all the public housing and food programs should be dismantled because they aren't productive enough? Didn't think somebody would put a positive spin on shock doctrine like this. Warbadger posted:^ And yes, hundreds of millions of dollars would be able to cover the loss of 2 years of foreign investments in the PDVSA pretty handily, particularly considering that it didn't prevent them from all activity on those markets. How much do you think they were receiving prior to these sanctions? I'm not the financial expert here. Why don't you tell me how much the Venezuelan government and its companies were being financed by US creditors? fishmech posted:Yes, the people who looted the means of production, literally. Because the Trump administration really cares about people who expropriate the means of production right? You're a smart guy, you know why the sanctions were put in place. My position in this thread from the start was merely that the hand of American interests behind this coup cannot be ignored, and that however bad people think things are right now they are certain to get even worse under the direction of American interests. Any sensible person would reject the legitimacy of a coup attempt which was organized and financed by the United States, which is implementing a sanctions regime that will make the entire country scream. It's outrageous now that any poster would come in here and try to argue that the shock doctrine policies of the United States which will be pushed through by whatever administration succeeds Maduro, are actually good, because Venezuela needs a return to profitability for foreign creditors at the expense of its people.
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Jan 27, 2019 20:06
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Feldegast42 posted:Venezuela is going to turn into the Western Hemispheres Syria where every major power (and ideology, in this case) is in jockeying for their own interests while the actual people get hosed there's a lot of dimensions to syria that do not really seem present in venezuela though, at the least, such as the military does not seem to be breaking up into factionalism yet or that maduro is not assad
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Jan 27, 2019 20:07
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Darth Walrus posted:I think the open question here is how much (and how) the present alternative will help with the whole 'not starving to death' thing. I do not think that there is any present alternatives that are going to be able to reverse the vast majority of damage done to Venezuela by the PSUV, Guaido included. Maduro has managed to create severe social and institutional damage that will live on long beyond him and leave Venezuela in a severely collapsed state. The only solutions for Venezuela existed years before the current situation. You just want a minimally traumatic future series of events that winds down the power of the PSUV to actively loot the country, and hopefully have nothing coming around to severely amplify the country's problems, like the current US president thinking a war to 'liberate' Venezuela would be an excellent distraction from his own domestic crisis. Most Venezuelans just want something to happen to stop the country from being actively bled dry by mismanagement and corruption, but if history is any indication, the country's not likely to get one of those "least bad" options. Probably just more conflict and collapse, maybe a full-blown starvation crisis. Whole portions of the country will end up leased out World Bank style to opportunistic foreign capital. The country itself has already had substantial cultural and brain drain from millions of people fleeing the violence, if they had any means to do so. It's not going to be a great next couple of decades.
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Jan 27, 2019 20:08
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But.. they *are* corruption schemes.
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Jan 27, 2019 20:08
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:You could read the Party Platform summarized on the Popular Will wikipedia, or the Spanish document posted earlier which was endorsed by Lopez in 2013 yourself. The platform has more in line with neoliberal shock doctrine than any kind of genuine socialist politics. I dunno man it reads kinda like the way norway does things and they seem to be doing relatively OK. It's not full communism now, but i'll take not-socialism over starving people. Priorities, you know.
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Jan 27, 2019 20:12
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:It's outrageous now that any poster would come in here and try to argue that the shock doctrine policies of the United States which will be pushed through by whatever administration succeeds Maduro, are actually good, because Venezuela needs a return to profitability for foreign creditors at the expense of its people. It would be outrageous, if that were what people were actually saying. It is possible to have public housing and food programs that actively make a country's situation worse, especially if they are blatantly unsustainable schemes entrenched in a corrupt militant dictatorship's attempts to keep a localized power base. Venezuela appears to have such a situation directly set up for a Chavista loyalist pipeline. You can want to replace that system in a way which shouldn't reflexively cause people to go "ah, so you WANT the Venezuelans to starve? SHOCK DOCTRINE??"
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Jan 27, 2019 20:13
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They ignore that all of those things are replacing previous schemes that didn't require a Carnet de la Patria to access them. You used to not have to participate in PSUV events to get food.
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Jan 27, 2019 20:15
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Kavros posted:You can want to replace that system in a way which shouldn't reflexively cause people to go "ah, so you WANT the Venezuelans to starve? SHOCK DOCTRINE??" You can. I mean, Guaido doesn’t, but it’s possible in an abstract sense we haven’t seen from the opposition.
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Jan 27, 2019 20:16
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:I don't care what actual Venezuelans want. Any opinion I hold is reflexively opposing whatever the current US interest is.
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Jan 27, 2019 20:17
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Rust Martialis posted:To be open, I've read this thread for a few years, but since I'm a Canadian who lives in Denmark, I largely lurk, because this is a place to *learn* from. There used to be a good collection of Venezuelan posters here, watching them flee the country or simply go silent has been depressing and frightening. But to some they are all "expats, bondholders, and the wealthy" so their voices can be ignored. This thread's been up since 2015, and I hung out a lot in the one that was here before it. So I've been here for at least four years. I'm speaking only for myself, obviously, but it's really tough. Reading comments from the endless parade of apologists who drop in here whenever something big enough happens in Venezuela to make international news is discouraging sometimes. It's always the same rehashed of propaganda, the same unreliable sources. I'm much quieter now in here than I've been in previous times for the sake of my emotional health. I still want to provide regular updates, but recently I haven't even been skimming the thread. I think in total there were about 5 venegoons in the thread at one point. I was the only one that was living outside of Venezuela. That's not the case anymore. I understand the ones who've gone silent. Having said that... uninterrupted posted:hm, yes, the problem is not enough poor people are starving The CLAP distribution system is not a welfare program. It's a front for a corruption scheme worth billions of dollars that benefits Maduro directly. The regime buys food from companies in Mexico at insane markups. These companies are owned by people with direct connections to Maduro. Aside from overcharging for the food, these companies in Mexico are also sending low-quality products to Venezuela in order to further cut costs and increase their own illicit profit. All of that is common knowledge in Venezuela. Uninterrupted and anyone else reading this: the crisis in Venezuela is complex. It goes back at least 20 years. It involves a cast of players too numerous to count. You cannot engage with these topics from just reading a couple of Telesur and Venezuelanalysis articles. Guaido is absolutely correct in criticizing the CLAP system for being corrupt. The system has to be replaced with an actual welfare program that serves the needs of Venezuelans. EDIT: If you read Spanish, I recommend that you check out Armando.info's work on the CLAP system. They broke the story and they've done some incredible investigative journalism to uncover the corruption.
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Jan 27, 2019 20:18
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