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Why does Guaido refuse to negotiate and why did he push the timeline out to ‘6 to 9 months’ for elections? What is stopping him and the US government from, when taking control of the military, massacring the base of PSUV’s support and thereby ensuring victory?
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Jan 29, 2019 08:29
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Rust Martialis posted:The opposition could renounce US support; but given the reality is that Maduro already is starving Venezuela and has overthrown the Constitution, I personally don't blame them for being open to it. It's beyond me at least to tell starving people they have to keep starving. The reality is that American sanctions and American foreign influence are starving Venezuela. The ruling party in my country is also kleptomaniac but stores aren't empty and people aren't starving. But they're also firmly capitalist and dedicated to the neoliberal handbook.
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Jan 29, 2019 08:38
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Rust Martialis posted:No, the reality is the experimenter is repeatedly pushing the button as the victim screams; you've been trying to get him to stop by peaceful protest for years, all the experimenter does is laugh and crank up the voltage. Your button is connected to nothing, apparently. That's not how the Milgram experiment works. 
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Jan 29, 2019 08:43
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Rust Martialis posted:The opposition could renounce US support; but given the reality is that Maduro already is starving Venezuela and has overthrown the Constitution, I personally don't blame them for being open to it. It's beyond me at least to tell starving people they have to keep starving. tbh I've heard the food aid thing a bit in this thread and know about him not accepting foreign aid but Maduro accept UNCERF aid in December. Was it a one off? Is there any internal reporting on it cause I can literally find nothing other than the statement of it happening. It was only 9 million mind you but then again Pompeo only offered 20 which is lol compared to the scale of the problem.
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Jan 29, 2019 08:49
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not a cult posted:The reality is that American sanctions and American foreign influence are starving Venezuela. The ruling party in my country is also kleptomaniac but stores aren't empty and people aren't starving. But they're also firmly capitalist and dedicated to the neoliberal handbook. The reality is that Maduro and cronies are starving Venezuela, and have been for quite a long time. Welcome to the Venezuela Thread, it's not like this all kicked off last week.
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Jan 29, 2019 08:50
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Rust Martialis posted:The reality is that Maduro and cronies are starving Venezuela, and have been for quite a long time. Welcome to the Venezuela Thread, it's not like this all kicked off last week. The reality is that American economic warfare is starving Venezuela. The light fingers of Maduro and his cronies are nothing compared to that.
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Jan 29, 2019 08:55
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Rust Martialis posted:The reality is that Maduro and cronies are starving Venezuela, and have been for quite a long time. Welcome to the Venezuela Thread, it's not like this all kicked off last week. What do you think is going to be the result of the American sanctions regime which is waged on the opposition's behalf?
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Jan 29, 2019 08:56
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not a cult posted:The reality is that American economic warfare is starving Venezuela. The light fingers of Maduro and his cronies are nothing compared to that. Which sanctions, in particular, are causing Venezuelans to starve?
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Jan 29, 2019 08:56
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Presenting Nipples posted:Why does Guaido refuse to negotiate and why did he push the timeline out to ‘6 to 9 months’ for elections? On the first point the PSUV has sat down to negotiate with the opposition before. The opposition is incompenent becase, well, they are. The PSUV on the other hand refuses to budge on petty bullshit like “stop shooting protesters” and “release political prisoners” and “please god accept humanitarian aid” because why would they? I guess it’s good we skip the charade this time. Regarding the second point I hadn’t heard of that yet. Got a link on hand? Presenting Nipples posted:What is stopping him and the US government from, when taking control of the military, massacring the base of PSUV’s support and thereby ensuring victory? This thing called “not being a piece of poo poo”
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Jan 29, 2019 09:02
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Fallen Hamprince posted:Which sanctions, in particular, are causing Venezuelans to starve? Strangling the operations of PDVSA is sure to cause some knock-on effects, since it's the single most important industry in the country.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:03
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Strangling the operations of PDVSA is sure to cause some knock-on effects, since it's the single most important industry in the country. Ok, even if this were true, people were starving without the sanctions already and have been doing so for north of three years already. You might as well go full “old man yells at cloud” on this one and it’d be about as accurate
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Jan 29, 2019 09:05
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Fallen Hamprince posted:Which sanctions, in particular, are causing Venezuelans to starve? Your months-long probation on the forums, for one. Don't give me this pedantic crap, I don't need to know the mechanics of how rain is formed to know what's happening when I see drops of water falling from the sky. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 29, 2019 09:07
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Furia posted:Ok, even if this were true, people were starving without the sanctions already and have been doing so for north of three years already. You might as well go full “old man yells at cloud” on this one and it’d be about as accurate Yes, so it'll be the same situation, just worse. Homeless Friend fucked around with this message at 09:12 on Jan 29, 2019 |
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Jan 29, 2019 09:09
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Homeless Friend posted:Yes, so it'll be the same situation just worse. Given that state aid is distributed once every 6 months with a grand total of three cans of lentils I can hardly agree this is the case, specially when PDVSA is controlled by a highly corrupt military apparatus Or do you have some secret knowledge you are yet to share with the thread?
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Jan 29, 2019 09:13
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not a cult posted:Don't give me this pedantic crap, I don't need to know the mechanics of how rain is formed to know what's happening when I see drops of water falling from the sky. A man standing under an air conditioning unit, insisting that it's raining and that there is no need for him to look up. The US publishes a list of it's sanctions if anyone in this thread would like to make themselves more knowledgeable about them.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:17
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I feel like we just had this argument no?
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Jan 29, 2019 09:19
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Furia posted:Given that state aid is distributed once every 6 months with a grand total of three cans of lentils I can hardly agree this is the case, specially when PDVSA is controlled by a highly corrupt military apparatus Unless I'm reading the situation wrong: lets say they print even more money to pay the workers to keep producing the oil, which they'll have to find ways to sell. No doubt below market or maybe not be able to at all. Or they might be straight up laid off. It seems to me this is going to contract the purchasing power for the ordinary person, even more than it already has been happening, because there will be less foreign dollars and more domestic bolivars. Considering 90% of the country is in poverty, I conclude it's the same situation. Just worse. E: i imagine less foreign currency means even less imports, since i can't imagine anybody in their right mind accepts bolivars. So basically getting hit from both ends. Homeless Friend fucked around with this message at 09:32 on Jan 29, 2019 |
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Jan 29, 2019 09:22
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:What do you think is going to be the result of the American sanctions regime which is waged on the opposition's behalf? Probably very little, actually, much like the previous sanctions. I think you're actually a reasonable person. I suspect we agree 100% that the US getting involved, under *any* president, is A Bad Idea. I hope we also agree on something like most of: - massive, immediate food aid - a return to the 2015 Constitution - resignation of the current government - dissolution of the Constituent Assembly - an interim *civilian* government put in to oversee fresh elections - keeping PDVSA public - no military action by US, Brazil, etc. - support for return of refugees - aid, not IMF loans etc. Ideally Maduro and co. would be stripped of their looted assets and punished, but if letting them go into exile is the price of a peaceful transition, then that's the price. Nobody here likes the US or Brazil getting involved. Nobody. But likewise, nobody can possibly countenance maintaining the current government here that has mismanaged Venezuelans into poverty and hunger. When you're drowning, you rarely stop to cavil about who throws you a rope.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:24
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Judging from what happened in Eastern Europe: all your state assets will be privatized and sold off to foreign companies and the situation for the average person won't really change at all except now it'll be your own fault that you can't bootstrap hard enough into success. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 29, 2019 09:26
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I have not lurked the forums in a while. Are there still any venegoons posting in here? Please holler.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:29
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Rust Martialis posted:Probably very little, actually, much like the previous sanctions. Then I guess we shouldn't do any sanctions at all, since they do so little. Might as well just not.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:30
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The first sanctions on Venezuelan soveriegn debt went into effect in August of 2017. In the year before that, 75% of the population lost an average of 19 pounds.wyldhoney posted:I have not lurked the forums in a while. Are there still any venegoons posting in here? Please holler. Here's a link to all of VZ goon Chuck Boone's posts in this thread, what I call 'the Venezuela thread, but good'.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:32
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Homeless Friend posted:Unless I'm reading the situation wrong: lets say they print even more money to pay the workers to keep producing the oil, which they'll have to find ways to sell. No doubt below market or maybe not be able to at all. Or they might be straight up laid off. It seems to me this is going to contract the purchasing power for the ordinary person, even more than it already has been happening, because there will be less foreign dollars and more domestic bolivars. Considering 90% of the country is in poverty, I conclude it's the same situation. Just worse. As far as I've seen, they can't produce enough oil to fulfil existing contracts with India and China as it is, no? The ongoing multi-year decay of oil production resulting from the looting of PDVSA by the government is independent of any sanctions.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:32
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Then I guess we shouldn't do any sanctions at all, since they do so little. Might as well just not. I probably doesn't hurt that Maduro can't launder his money in the US, although I suppose allowing him to buy a Mar-A-Lago membership would significantly bring down the chances of an armed US intervention.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:34
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Then I guess we shouldn't do any sanctions at all, since they do so little. Might as well just not. I hope you're in favor of the ones targeting specific named regime persons who have looted billions at least?
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Jan 29, 2019 09:36
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Rust Martialis posted:As far as I've seen, they can't produce enough oil to fulfil existing contracts with India and China as it is, no? The ongoing multi-year decay of oil production resulting from the looting of PDVSA by the government is independent of any sanctions. Like I said, the existing situation, just worse. e: it's a matter of acceleration, basically Homeless Friend fucked around with this message at 09:43 on Jan 29, 2019 |
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Jan 29, 2019 09:41
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Fallen Hamprince posted:I probably doesn't hurt that Maduro can't launder his money in the US, although I suppose allowing him to buy a Mar-A-Lago membership would significantly bring down the chances of an armed US intervention. So you're saying that Maduro literally steals every bit of oil revenue from American sales? quote:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47036491 I suppose all the PDVSA employees also never have to spend money in the country because they spend all their money in overseas bank accounts, and have all their food personally airlifted into their back yards. Are we supposed to expect that PDVSA is some sort of series of tubes that transfers all funds out of Venezuela and never interacts with the domestic economy? Rust Martialis posted:I hope you're in favor of the ones targeting specific named regime persons who have looted billions at least? No. Because "targeted sanctions" are a myth. They always have severe knock-on effects.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:42
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Fallen Hamprince posted:A man standing under an air conditioning unit, insisting that it's raining and that there is no need for him to look up. A man standing in a downpour shouting "This is just the air conditioner leaking, everything is fine!" LMAO you are the most disingenous poster on the board.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:46
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:No. Because "targeted sanctions" are a myth. They always have severe knock-on effects. Are you honestly going trickle down economics on us right now? Also, ever wonder how they got to be so rich as public servants? The answer may shock you!
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Jan 29, 2019 09:47
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:So you're saying that Maduro literally steals every bit of oil revenue from American sales? quote:Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the proceeds of the purchase of Venezuelan oil would now be withheld from Mr Maduro's government, but the company could avoid sanctions by recognising Mr Guaidó. The economic crisis in Venezuela significantly predates this decision.
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Jan 29, 2019 09:47
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Furia posted:Are you honestly going trickle down economics on us right now? "Trickle down economics" is when you suppose that people at the bottom get more money by letting rich people keep more taxes, but targeted sanctions are when everybody gets no money because you're pre-empting any business with the firms associated with the person in question. There isn't some sort of alternative if the people being sanctioned work for monopolies. Like a nationalized industry. Fallen Hamprince posted:The economic crisis in Venezuela significantly predates this decision. Right, so I guess the sanctions won't do anything. Because the crisis is already there. What does it matter?
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Jan 29, 2019 09:51
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Fallen Hamprince posted:The economic crisis in Venezuela significantly predates this decision. This will obviously have an impact on government revenues, though, which will end up having undesirable knock-on effects. There's no way PDVSA recognizes the opposition. The only way this doesn't exacerbate hunger is if immediate food aid is sent. Maduro won't permit it, can the opposition really get it distributed effectively in the face of government opposition?
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Jan 29, 2019 09:54
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not a cult posted:Don't give me this pedantic crap, I don't need to know the mechanics of how rain is formed to know what's happening when I see drops of water falling from the sky. lmao what an embarassment
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Jan 29, 2019 09:56
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:"Trickle down economics" is when you suppose that people at the bottom get more money by letting rich people keep more taxes, but targeted sanctions are when everybody gets no money because you're pre-empting any business with the firms associated with the person in question. There isn't some sort of alternative if the people being sanctioned work for monopolies. Like a nationalized industry. Oh right sorry my apologies. What’s it called when you let corrupt officials keep their ill gotten gains because you suppose people at the bottom get more money out of it? And please enlighten me how this in any way affects welfare programs since those are institutionally managed programs.
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Jan 29, 2019 10:35
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Furia posted:Oh right sorry my apologies. What’s it called when you let corrupt officials keep their ill gotten gains because you suppose people at the bottom get more money out of it? Nobody said anything about welfare programs, although I guess if you sanction all business with certain people then the economy also loses the revenues from that business and the government loses tax moneys that could have been used to fund welfare programs. That's what's called a knock-on effect. If you cut off the flow of water at the locks then everything down channel loses water. That's how sanctions work. Do you understand that sanctioning individuals affects every business they could possibly profit from? If you want to stop corrupt individuals from keeping their ill-gotten gains, then you freeze their personal overseas assets. You don't stop any business that could possibly be associated with them.
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Jan 29, 2019 11:16
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Pedro De Heredia posted:lmao what an embarassment Is what I'll be saying to you when the puppet you're pinning your hopes on turns out to be a puppet.
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Jan 29, 2019 11:23
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not a cult posted:Is what I'll be saying to you when the puppet you're pinning your hopes on turns out to be a puppet. As opposed to supporting Maduro like you do? At least he has a *chance* of a better outcome, which is more than you can say.
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Jan 29, 2019 11:35
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I clicked on my post history on this thread and the first thing posted, like two years ago, is: " 'The opposition is worse' is a goalpost that has shifted all the way to the moon by this point. It doesn't seem to matter how much worse things get for the average Venezuelan or how much worse the actions of the government are, you can always claim the opposition would be worse because there were right-wing military dictatorships in South America forty years ago. " Checks out.
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Jan 29, 2019 11:57
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Rust Martialis posted:As opposed to supporting Maduro like you do? At least he has a *chance* of a better outcome, which is more than you can say. What better outcome? A neolib "interim" president who owes his position to such luminaries as Donald Trump and Bolsonaro? LMAO maybe it is. He'll sell everything not nailed down and erase the gains lower classes have made but at least they'll have some crumbs to eat.
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Jan 29, 2019 12:27
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not a cult posted:What better outcome? A neolib "interim" president who owes his position to such luminaries as Donald Trump and Bolsonaro? You’re describing Maduro except that Maduro also gave $500k to Trump’s inauguration lmao e: and poor people don’t get crumbs either right now Furia fucked around with this message at 12:46 on Jan 29, 2019 |
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Jan 29, 2019 12:38
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