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Plastic_Gargoyle
Aug 3, 2007

Apologies again for the Facebook link, phone posting. A Nordwind Airlines 777 has flown empty from Moscow to Caracas, and has parked at the "presidential ramp" at the airport.

https://www.facebook.com/315080478611366/posts/1974295646023166/

Edit: Chuck Boone, if you use Facebook, I'd follow the LAAHS, they've been really good at posting relevant updates on this the past few days.

Plastic_Gargoyle fucked around with this message at 12:43 on Jan 29, 2019

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Schadenboner
Aug 15, 2011

by Shine

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

Apologies again for the Facebook link, phone posting. A Nordwind Airlines 777 has flown empty from Moscow to Caracas, and has parked at the "presidential ramp" at the airport.

https://www.facebook.com/315080478611366/posts/1974295646023166/

Empty or “Empty SURPRISE MOTHERFUCKERSKI, SPETZNAZ!

If the first this could be, like, it?

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006

Pedro De Heredia posted:

I clicked on my post history on this thread and the first thing posted, like two years ago, is:

" 'The opposition is worse' is a goalpost that has shifted all the way to the moon by this point. It doesn't seem to matter how much worse things get for the average Venezuelan or how much worse the actions of the government are, you can always claim the opposition would be worse because there were right-wing military dictatorships in South America forty years ago. "


Checks out.

You think this is a sick burn but its literally true.

Whatever you think about this situation now, it will always be made indisputably worse by a right wing opposition coming to power. Neoliberal succdems are basically pasties for imperialism and capital so, basically yeah. That's sound logic.

If you want positive change in Venezuela it's absolutely got zero chance of coming through with the backing of people like John loving Bolton. It isn't even remotely worth entertaining.

Pedro De Heredia
May 30, 2006
Yes, it's so true that you will be saying it no matter what happens, I know. If there are any gains after Maduro leaves, they "won't count".

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
A thought for those who say that Maduro is bad but American intervention would be worse: you're not wrong, and we could solve both problems at once if Maduro hosed off permanently thus ridding the country of himself, and also of the pretext for the USA to get strongly involved. So if you actually believe that Maduro is evil, and US intervention could make things much worse, then it would follow that you should strongly support the opposition, and also support the PSUV being replaced by the elected and constitutional interim president, Guaido, before any form of American intervention can be reasonably justified.

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

not a cult posted:

What better outcome? A neolib "interim" president who owes his position to such luminaries as Donald Trump and Bolsonaro?
LMAO maybe it is. He'll sell everything not nailed down and erase the gains lower classes have made but at least they'll have some crumbs to eat.

I'm not sure if you're being rad ironic or not, but eating crumbs in a shantytown with clean water and light is generally better than eating garbage in the dark and filthy water taken out of the Guaire, which is the current thing.

Will the AN be bad at ruling Venezuela? Maybe, and certainly things won't get better quickly. Will they be worse than Maduro? That'd be pretty loving hard to do without starting a full-scale civil war. Literally any stable government would be better than Maduro. Of stable governments that are worse than the PSUV we have uh... DPRK, and then Zimbabwe is on equal footing to the PSUV?

Yes, Venezuela still could fall a long way and get even shittier than it is under Maduro. No one here is advocating for a CIA-backed right-wing dictatorship; they are arguing that a change to a CIA-backed right-wing dictatorship would be almost indistinguishable from the PSUV, and thus also terrible.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

not a cult posted:

What better outcome? A neolib "interim" president who owes his position to such luminaries as Donald Trump and Bolsonaro?
LMAO maybe it is. He'll sell everything not nailed down and erase the gains lower classes have made but at least they'll have some crumbs to eat.

You may be right, but you offer literally no alternative ideas. If we do what you want, things will continue to get worse and worse. No food, no medicine; just more suffering, refugees, and death.

Schadenboner
Aug 15, 2011

by Shine

Rust Martialis posted:

You may be right, but you offer literally no alternative ideas. If we do what you want, things will continue to get worse and worse. No food, no medicine; just more suffering, refugees, and death.

But at least he’ll be starving the proles to own da libs!

Pedro De Heredia
May 30, 2006
This line of thinking is how you end up surprised and bewildered when a right-wing government dominates politics for a generation with broad popular support (hardly a weird thing).

Venomous
Nov 7, 2011





PT6A posted:

So if you actually believe that Maduro is evil, and US intervention could make things much worse, then it would follow that you should strongly support the opposition,

nah, what I'd really support would be a popular anarchist revolution against any forms of centralised government, but I guess that isn't really an option for the people of Venezuela even though they have no reason to support the state in any form ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Schadenboner posted:

But at least he’ll be starving the proles to own da libs!

I think everyone agrees that any time the US gets actively involved in opposing a government, there's a pretty horrific track record of "and then what happened?" So I can understand anyone who takes a strong, principled stand on opposing US involvement in this sort of situation. It is maybe a bit like Chomsky said, that he felt that US citizens like himself have a particular responsibility to oppose their government interfering in other countries.

So am I optimistic? No. But I remain hopeful that something better can emerge. Maduro has set a very, very low bar.

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni

wyldhoney posted:

I have not lurked the forums in a while. Are there still any venegoons posting in here? Please holler.

There are still a few of us around!

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but I spoke to Jesus and he says that the Venezuelan people have been marked by prophecy to suffer and die in order to validate the political ideological beliefs of a braying mob of mouth breathing armchair generals

It was the only solution he could find that would satisfy the blood lust of non-Venezuelans, so please consider the needs of future tenants as you quietly starve to death

patonthebach
Aug 22, 2016

by R. Guyovich

PT6A posted:

A thought for those who say that Maduro is bad but American intervention would be worse: you're not wrong, and we could solve both problems at once if Maduro hosed off permanently thus ridding the country of himself, and also of the pretext for the USA to get strongly involved. So if you actually believe that Maduro is evil, and US intervention could make things much worse, then it would follow that you should strongly support the opposition, and also support the PSUV being replaced by the elected and constitutional interim president, Guaido, before any form of American intervention can be reasonably justified.

Ah I think you are forgetting the fact Maduro is just a humble bus driver that serves as president solely to help the people, he is a noble comrade. Ignore the gold coins in his pockets.

Also the story about all the citizens losing 20 pounds in a year is western propaganda. They just all decided to go on a diet before the free vacations Maduro is taking them on.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
If you want a good English source on Venezuelan stuff, David Smilde on Twitter is really good. He's a professor at Tulane who's been working on Venezuelan stuff for years, and he's been really nuanced for as long as I've been following his work. He's anti-US intervention and has been holding Guaido's feet to the fire:

https://twitter.com/dsmilde/status/1090227571902558209


wyldhoney posted:

I have not lurked the forums in a while. Are there still any venegoons posting in here? Please holler.

Yo!

EDIT:

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

Apologies again for the Facebook link, phone posting. A Nordwind Airlines 777 has flown empty from Moscow to Caracas, and has parked at the "presidential ramp" at the airport.

https://www.facebook.com/315080478611366/posts/1974295646023166/

Edit: Chuck Boone, if you use Facebook, I'd follow the LAAHS, they've been really good at posting relevant updates on this the past few days.

Thanks for the tip. I'll check them out!

Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 14:39 on Jan 29, 2019

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

GoLambo posted:

You think this is a sick burn but its literally true.

Whatever you think about this situation now, it will always be made indisputably worse by a right wing opposition coming to power. Neoliberal succdems are basically pasties for imperialism and capital so, basically yeah. That's sound logic.

If you want positive change in Venezuela it's absolutely got zero chance of coming through with the backing of people like John loving Bolton. It isn't even remotely worth entertaining.

no offense man, but this is really loving cheap talk until you're facing a status quo that involves you or your loved ones starving to death.

like, this seems to be a huge disconnect in the thread. All these warnings about how horrible US intervention will be basically fall on deaf ears because the current situation with Maduro in power is So loving Bad.

its honestly pretty likely that the US will gently caress things up in an astonishing way (trump etc) but that potential is probably the least persuasive argument to anyone currently suffering under the regime.

CAPS LOCK BROKEN
Feb 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

A big flaming stink posted:

no offense man, but this is really loving cheap talk until you're facing a status quo that involves you or your loved ones starving to death.

This is a cheap emotional appeal people use to justify all kinds of morally abhorrent things.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:

This is a cheap emotional appeal people use to justify all kinds of morally abhorrent things.

Also happens to be true.

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

The Trump administration is pushing for civil war and that is undeniably worse then the status quo. They are actively making the status quo worse on a daily basis.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Presenting Nipples posted:

The Trump administration is pushing for civil war and that is undeniably worse then the status quo. They are actively making the status quo worse on a daily basis.

Mmm, I've seen a few Venezuelans going full accelerationist here. Like, the government is already killing them, so at least a civil war would disrupt their control and give them a chance at smuggling in vital supplies or straight-up escaping.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

A big flaming stink posted:

no offense man, but this is really loving cheap talk until you're facing a status quo that involves you or your loved ones starving to death.

like, this seems to be a huge disconnect in the thread. All these warnings about how horrible US intervention will be basically fall on deaf ears because the current situation with Maduro in power is So loving Bad.

its honestly pretty likely that the US will gently caress things up in an astonishing way (trump etc) but that potential is probably the least persuasive argument to anyone currently suffering under the regime.

This would be more compelling if the last dozen places the US has intervened on weren't still utterly hosed up warzones.

Your direct comparison here is Syria or Afghanistan.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp

Darth Walrus posted:

Mmm, I've seen a few Venezuelans going full accelerationist here. Like, the government is already killing them, so at least a civil war would disrupt their control and give them a chance at smuggling in vital supplies or straight-up escaping.

:thunk: are you sure because I have seen literally zero venegoons advocate for active civil war. quite the opposite in fact!

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp

COMRADES posted:

This would be more compelling if the last dozen places the US has intervened on weren't still utterly hosed up warzones.

Your direct comparison here is Syria or Afghanistan.

Hey Greneda is doing just fine, probably. :colbert:

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
a few days ago someone here posted news about 5000 us troops heading for colombia

now i'm being told there's venezuelan t-72s and howitzers moving towards the colombian border

colombian border also happens to be the place where most refuges manage to get out of the country afaik, so that seems like a really bad development.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Truga posted:

a few days ago someone here posted news about 5000 us troops heading for colombia

now i'm being told there's venezuelan t-72s and howitzers moving towards the colombian border

colombian border also happens to be the place where most refuges manage to get out of the country afaik, so that seems like a really bad development.

Got a source for either of these?

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
Oh, poo poo. The 5000 troops thing was just a note on bolton's notebook, I mixed that up, sorry:
https://twitter.com/Kevinliptakcnn/status/1090024091787108352
The tanks news is literally from someone I talk to on IRC though, I guess we'll know if it's true in a couple hours.

OJ MIST 2 THE DICK
Sep 11, 2008

Anytime I need to see your face I just close my eyes
And I am taken to a place
Where your crystal minds and magenta feelings
Take up shelter in the base of my spine
Sweet like a chica cherry cola

-Cheap Trick

Nap Ghost

Discendo Vox posted:

Got a source for either of these?

the 5000 troops to columbia was because Bolt9n did a press op with a yellow legal pad that very clearly had the words "5000 TROOPS TO COLUMBIA" on it

also it was yesterday

like it should be sitting on any news site right now (phone posting so hard to get a link)

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


Colombia*

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
nvm, the howitzers thing is 2 days old:
https://twitter.com/M3t4_tr0n/status/1089521238228242432/video/1

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
The government is starting to finally move against Guaido. The attorney general has just asked the Supreme Court to ban him from leaving the country and to freeze his banks accounts (also, to ban him from handling real estate. I think this is aimed at making sure he can't get access to gov't assets). No arrest warrant so far.

I don't have the link handy but I think it was Bolton who issued one of his vague threats recently saying that the US would respond if the government tried anything against Guaido or against the National Assembly. Who knows if this qualifies...

EDIT: The attorney general also said that Guaido is being investigated for "acts... against the peace of the country" and its economy, referring to the events of the past week.

Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 17:53 on Jan 29, 2019

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

DoctorStrangelove posted:

I approve of Chuck.

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Thought of this thread as I met with a Venezuelan today and our meeting started with a sad commiseration of how many had left the countey then business

CAPS LOCK BROKEN
Feb 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy
U.S. sanctions threaten Venezuela's economy as Maduro eyes next move

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

GoLambo posted:

You think this is a sick burn but its literally true.

Whatever you think about this situation now, it will always be made indisputably worse by a right wing opposition coming to power. Neoliberal succdems are basically pasties for imperialism and capital so, basically yeah. That's sound logic.

If you want positive change in Venezuela it's absolutely got zero chance of coming through with the backing of people like John loving Bolton. It isn't even remotely worth entertaining.

Why do you keep talking about a mythical "right wing opposition" and why the ongoing use of "successful democrat" like it's some kind of burn? You really don't seem to even be talking about Venezuela at all, just some video game version with entirely different politicians.

Is your allegation that there's going to be people brought in to replace the elected assembly, or what?

Elias_Maluco
Aug 23, 2007
I need to sleep
Interesting article by Federico Finchelstein and Pablo Piccato (no gringos)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...m=.f02660a6cf95

While they do not support Maduro, they also do not support Trump's meddling and do not think is helping a peacuful transition to democracy

quote:

So what does this history suggest about the probable outcomes of U.S. intervention in Venezuela today?

One outcome is that Trump’s pro-Guaidó strategy fails: The Maduro government violently suppresses the rebellion in the streets, and the country returns to the quagmire of mismanagement and misery that in recent years has created a flood of refugees from Venezuela. This seems less likely than the last time Maduro quashed rebellion, in 2017, given the unified front now offered by the opposition in the National Assembly and the lukewarm attitude of the armed forces.

This might suggest a second possibility, which would also represent a failure for Trump: that the armed forces remove Maduro and secure the continuity of their privileges and mismanagement of the national economy. Post-Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe is a good example of this type of “transition.” No free elections; repression and economic misery remain as before. The current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, was for decades Mugabe’s hatchet man and had led some of the fiercest attacks against political opponents, which continued this past week when his government’s repression led to 12 deaths, 78 gunshot casualties, hundreds of instances of assault or torture, and enough arrests to fill prisons beyond capacity. The dictator is gone, but his former cronies still rule the country without true democratic change.

A third option in Venezuela has opened up with the United States' entrance into the fray. The aggressive statements and threats of intervention coming from the Trump government could result in armed conflict. For the Maduro government, the threats from Washington and its recognition of Guaidó are a precious gift: They will allow him to claim renewed legitimacy and consolidate the support of the armed forces in the face of an external threat. In this context, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and other self-declared followers of Trump in Latin America would significantly contribute to a new Latin America that would look like that of the Cold War years, when authoritarian regimes undermined the rule of law and violated human rights with the endorsement and support of the United States and, in the case of Cuba, the Soviet Union.

There’s a fourth option as well, one that would be welcomed by most parties. Although several Latin American and European countries have withdrawn their recognition of Maduro’s government, Mexico and Uruguay have not. As such, they could establish a public negotiation with the different parties, preventing both a civil war and foreign intervention.

The experience of Central America shows that regional and multilateral negotiations can end conflicts. The mid-1980s Esquipulas agreements helped steer the peace process in El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua. The accords were in part the product of the Contadora initiative, which involved Colombia, Mexico, Panama and Venezuela as brokers, and eventually led to the end of civil wars in the Central American region. In the current situation, brokering a peaceful outcome can be done only by intermediaries that recognize Maduro’s government as a party, withholding judgment about the ways he has been able to hold on to power.

The authoritarian nature of the current leadership in Venezuela and the United States militates against that solution, however. In Maduro’s rhetoric, all the problems in the country have been caused by the imperialists from Washington. There is a considerable sector in the left in Latin America and the United States that agrees with this assessment, as well as with the notion that political oppression and the suffering it has caused are justifiable tools for an all-powerful leader — first Chávez and now, to a lesser extent, Maduro — who can uniquely express and mobilize the feelings of the people. This position is now being endorsed by the Russian government. President Vladimir Putin recently deployed two bombers to Venezuela while warning the United States not to intervene.

For Trump, gut instinct determines whether an authoritarian regime is good or bad. Although he is attracted to the likes of Putin, Kim Jong Un and Rodrigo Duterte, he is also susceptible to the demonization of other authoritarian figures because of the encouragement, in this case, of John Bolton in his Cabinet and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) in the Senate. Besides a multilateral effort of mediation, the only impediment to Trump turning threats into action would be pushback from Congress. Because Latin America is not a high priority in Washington, intervention could become a reality. It would buttress Trump’s beleaguered image as a strong leader and could prop up his slipping polls as he heads into 2020.

I agree

Elias_Maluco fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Jan 29, 2019

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Acebuckeye13 posted:

:thunk: are you sure because I have seen literally zero venegoons advocate for active civil war. quite the opposite in fact!

Goons ain't the only Venezuelans online. I'm talking offsite.

C.M. Kruger
Oct 28, 2013
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-idUSKCN1PN1DM

quote:

Russia expects Venezuela to make its next scheduled debt repayment to Moscow on schedule at the end of March, the Russian Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday, hours after one of its top officials said he expected Caracas to struggle with repayments.

Russia’s deputy finance minister said earlier on Tuesday that he expected Venezuela to have problems repaying its debts to Moscow in comments made after Washington imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state oil firm.

The finance ministry issued a separate statement later on Tuesday, saying it still expected a payment of over $100 million to be made on time.

“No changes in the agreement have been introduced and correspondingly Venezuela must fulfill the obligations it has taken upon itself to the creditor,” the ministry said.

"and it better not bounce or you're a dead motherfucker!"

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

C.M. Kruger posted:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-idUSKCN1PN1DM


"and it better not bounce or you're a dead motherfucker!"
Wagner is getting into the debt collection game apparently.

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni

Chuck Boone posted:

The government is starting to finally move against Guaido. The attorney general has just asked the Supreme Court to ban him from leaving the country and to freeze his banks accounts (also, to ban him from handling real estate. I think this is aimed at making sure he can't get access to gov't assets). No arrest warrant so far.

I don't have the link handy but I think it was Bolton who issued one of his vague threats recently saying that the US would respond if the government tried anything against Guaido or against the National Assembly. Who knows if this qualifies...

EDIT: The attorney general also said that Guaido is being investigated for "acts... against the peace of the country" and its economy, referring to the events of the past week.

The Supreme Court is discussing right now what to do about the Guaido issue. What would usually happen at this point is they decide to strip him of his parliamentary immunity and detain him, but I'm not sure they'll be so bold this time. Bolton just tweeted a little while ago there'd be serious consequences if someone tried to harm Guaido.

https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/1090323542812569602

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Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

PT6A posted:

A thought for those who say that Maduro is bad but American intervention would be worse: you're not wrong, and we could solve both problems at once if Maduro hosed off permanently thus ridding the country of himself, and also of the pretext for the USA to get strongly involved. So if you actually believe that Maduro is evil, and US intervention could make things much worse, then it would follow that you should strongly support the opposition, and also support the PSUV being replaced by the elected and constitutional interim president, Guaido, before any form of American intervention can be reasonably justified.

Ok well Maduro isn't going to go, and the opposition we supposedly have to support is practically begging the United States to destroy the country on their behalf.

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