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I feel like I have a brain injury reading these arguments on loop from progressively less informed posters.
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Feb 2, 2019 02:56
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Your case would be better if Wikipedia said the embargo started earlier than 2018. Price controls have been in effect for years.
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Feb 2, 2019 02:56
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Discendo Vox posted:I feel like I have a brain injury reading these arguments on loop from progressively less informed posters. Seriously it's like the same person rushing in with an argument sure fire to take down the terrible coup supporters in the thread, except it's the same argument posted multiple times before and disproved each time.
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Feb 2, 2019 03:02
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Kurnugia posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/10/world/americas/obama-freezes-assets-of-seven-venezuelan-officials.html Freezing assets of 7 individuals is an embargo now?
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Feb 2, 2019 03:03
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The most baffling thing is that maduro has explicitly given goverment positions, like running the psvda, to military generals. Isn't that something you would find more in a right-wing military junta than a bastion of socialism?
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Feb 2, 2019 03:03
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Saudi Arabia cozied up to US imperialism and it is far from a failed state. Yes, there is little freedom and there are human rights abuses, but people aren't starving. Sometimes you just have to give up when faced with an overwhelmingly powerful enemy and pay the tribute their asking.
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Feb 2, 2019 03:08
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Pharohman777 posted:The most baffling thing is that maduro has explicitly given goverment positions, like running the psvda, to military generals. i think it's a thing you'll find pretty often in places under constant threat of a foreign invasion
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Feb 2, 2019 03:09
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Temaukel posted:Freezing assets of 7 individuals is an embargo now? no, but it is connected to the price controls implemented years ago. the US began loving with venezuelan economy a long time ago was the point
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Feb 2, 2019 03:10
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Until very recently, there were four (4) US sanctions against Venezuela of which I am aware. Also, as Strangelove notes, even these are Pretty Darn Recent. All except the Good One are 2017 or later. - Sanctions on the assets of specific PSUV higher ups and military officers and the like. This one is Actually Good with minimal knock on effects. - A ban on transactions involving the stupid new oil-backed digital currency. It's my understanding that this currency was essentially another grift scheme with minimal positive impact on the country. - One restricted the sorts of new debt that could be issued to Venezuela to short-term maturity only. My understanding is that if anything this would mean better interest rates than long maturity and the only obvious problem is that if the situation in the country worsened it would become harder to roll over the new debt rather than just having borrowed a shitload from the outset. But what are the odds that Maduro would mismanage the country? - One in May 2018 (so, you know, WELL into the catastrofuck) basically made it almost impossible for the Maduro government to collateralize new US loans with national assets. This obviously DOES make it harder for a garbage pile of a government to get new loans from the US, but saying it shouldn't have been put into place leaves one in the uncomfortable position of arguing that Goldman Sachs et al should be able to seize Venezuelan assets at pennies on the dollar when Maduro inevitably defaults. This isn't a pie in the sky hypothetical! A bunch of Caribbean PDVSA assets got confiscated just a bit ago! Since May 2018, China and Russia have made a bunch of collateralized loans to Venezuela and therefore have a claim on a bunch of permanent national assets! That's not going to end well for Venezuela! tldr: the 'economic blockade' wasn't clearly worse than the alternative for Venezuela as a country until recently, and sure as heck isn't the main cause of Venezuelans loving starving that's on the PSUV
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Feb 2, 2019 03:12
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Kurnugia posted:yes, i do. i most certainly and definately believe in the right of a nation or an individual to default on their debts. it is called bankruptcy, and you using that as a cause for foreign invasion makes we want to throw up. gently caress off with that imperialist poo poo I think you have misread my intentions with that post. I wasn't asking if Maduro has an abstract right to default, I was asking you to consider what kind of policy Maduro is actually likely to pursue in the future, if nobody were trying to remove him. Over the past several years he has prioritized making payments on Venezuela's external debt over providing foreign currency for the nation's importers. This has contributed to the shortages, but that doesn't mean Maduro was wrong to do so. What do you think would be the consequences to Maduro for defaulting on his debts to China, Russia, and his other creditors? Whether doing so is moral or not hardly matters if the outcome is still a disaster for Venezuela either way.
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Feb 2, 2019 03:15
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GreyjoyBastard posted:tldr: the 'economic blockade' wasn't clearly worse than the alternative for Venezuela as a country until recently, and sure as heck isn't the main cause of Venezuelans loving starving what alternative?
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Feb 2, 2019 03:16
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Squalid posted:I think you have misread my intentions with that post. I wasn't asking if Maduro has an abstract right to default, I was asking you to consider what kind of policy Maduro is actually likely to pursue in the future, if nobody were trying to remove him. the reason for prioritizing debt payments to russia and china was because venezuela was banned from american debt markets. as for the results being a disaster, i don't think economic sanctions imposed by the IMF on venezuela for defaulting on some century of bonds are on him, but whatever
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Feb 2, 2019 03:20
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Kurnugia posted:what alternative? leaving those four sanctions unimposed I'm theoretically persuadable on the ones that aren't "gently caress you, specific kleptocrats" but it would require major new information to me on the digital currency one, a major oversight on my part on the short maturity loans only one, and a real heavy dose of optimism on the "Maduro can't sell national assets at bargain bin prices" one well, okay, there might also be an argument that Venezuela can just re-nationalize everything after the immediate crisis
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Feb 2, 2019 03:21
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At this point this thread is mostly people stanning for Trump, there isn't point in debating people who only trust sources they agree with and dismisses any information they don't agree with as 'pro-Maduro'. They are too cowardly to say they support Trump's policy of starvation, so they just feign ignorance. A UN special rapporteur called for the lifting of sanctions yesterday. The sanctions unless lifted going to cause more people to starve. The Trump policy is literally 'starve them out'. Anyone who wants the starving to stop should be calling their congressmen telling Trump to stop this insanity, instead just endless pedantic hand-wringing saying to think about the starving Venezuelans when they support starving them more. They are going to try to do this in Cuba and Nicaragua too, and the cycle will repeat.
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Feb 2, 2019 03:22
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Kurnugia posted:the reason for prioritizing debt payments to russia and china was because venezuela was banned from american debt markets. as for the results being a disaster, i don't think economic sanctions imposed by the IMF on venezuela for defaulting on some century of bonds are on him, but whatever what imf sanctions
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Feb 2, 2019 03:22
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the new US sanctions on Venezuela range from bad to extremely bad and I'm pretty sure I'm against them I might be persuadable in the other direction on the gold but imo there's an important difference between permanent assets (like land), semipermanent assets (oil reserves), and fungible currency and currency-like assets spending down all the country's gold and foreign currency is going to make post-Maduro recovery that much harder, but doesn't feel to me like quite as catastrophically permanent so the immediate harm of the sanctions is more likely to outweigh the good of keeping Maduro from stealing everything Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 03:27 on Feb 2, 2019 |
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Feb 2, 2019 03:23
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Presenting Nipples posted:At this point this thread is mostly people stanning for Trump, there isn't point in debating people who only trust sources they agree with and dismisses any information they don't agree with as 'pro-Maduro'. They are too cowardly to say they support Trump's policy of starvation, so they just feign ignorance. Even if somehow "trumps sanctions" were the dominant reason that Venezuela is in the tank right now (it isn't), if they were lifted tomorrow the country would still be facing hyperinflation, high levels of violence and mass hunger for years to come because of an incompetent and corrupt government. Stop trying to pretend that Maduro isn't a mass failure and if it wasnt for that meanie trump it would be a land of red glory otherwise.
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Feb 2, 2019 03:27
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zapplez posted:Even if somehow "trumps sanctions" were the dominant reason that Venezuela is in the tank right now (it isn't), if they were lifted tomorrow the country would still be facing hyperinflation, high levels of violence and mass hunger for years to come because of an incompetent and corrupt government. So a bad economy justifies sanctions designed to starve the rest of the country?
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Feb 2, 2019 03:30
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GreyjoyBastard posted:what imf sanctions sorry, it's kinda hard to remember which US sock puppet was responsible for what at 4am. gg
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Feb 2, 2019 03:32
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Kurnugia posted:sorry, it's kinda hard to remember which US sock puppet was responsible for what at 4am. gg I mean, if they did something I might have missed it and if I missed something important then maybe the economic war Maduro apologism would have legs but the only IMF fussery about Venezuela I see on a quick review is them chiding Maduro for giving them too little / too bad economic info, lol
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Feb 2, 2019 03:49
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Kurnugia posted:the reason for prioritizing debt payments to russia and china was because venezuela was banned from american debt markets. as for the results being a disaster, i don't think economic sanctions imposed by the IMF on venezuela for defaulting on some century of bonds are on him, but whatever I don't think Venezuela prioritized debt repayment to Russia and China over other creditors. Maybe it has in the last week or two, I'm not sure. Maduro has made sure to pay the share owed to American finance as well. The country has gradually started defaulting on debts over the last year or two, but not for lack of trying. Unfortunately, and this will be true whether Guiado or Maduro runs Venezuela, the country needs access to international finance to function. Either will be made to pay their pound of flesh, and if you think Maduro has any space at all to take a principled stand against the depredations of Goldman Sachs you must be a bigger fool than him.
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Feb 2, 2019 04:06
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Kurnugia posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/10/world/americas/obama-freezes-assets-of-seven-venezuelan-officials.html There are two halves to this argument if you'd like to make it. When do you think the inflation crisis began?
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Feb 2, 2019 04:07
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Squalid posted:I don't think Venezuela prioritized debt repayment to Russia and China over other creditors. Maybe it has in the last week or two, I'm not sure. Maduro has made sure to pay the share owed to American finance as well. The country has gradually started defaulting on debts over the last year or two, but not for lack of trying. Unfortunately, and this will be true whether Guiado or Maduro runs Venezuela, the country needs access to international finance to function. Either will be made to pay their pound of flesh, and if you think Maduro has any space at all to take a principled stand against the depredations of Goldman Sachs you must be a bigger fool than him. I believe Russia refused to take a haircut on their debt. Also any new government is going to have the exact same issues even if they default. Russia, China and the vulture funds can just wait.
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Feb 2, 2019 05:23
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Ardennes posted:I believe Russia refused to take a haircut on their debt. tbf while I tend to defend the earlier sanctions and whatnot as inexplicably okay I also feel like there was probably a path on the US to do something more productive, and might still be maybe something like "if the PSUV stops being total shits [based on metrics x y and z] we'll throw rebuilding money at them" there's something like a consensus among non awful people building in support of a Mexico Bolivia et al negotiation plan, maybe the above could be a thing to put on that table
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Feb 2, 2019 06:34
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Pharohman777 posted:The most baffling thing is that maduro has explicitly given goverment positions, like running the psvda, to military generals. It owns that you think Venezuela is socialist. Do you think China is, too?
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Feb 2, 2019 07:08
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ChaseSP posted:Seriously it's like the same person rushing in with an argument sure fire to take down the terrible coup supporters in the thread, except it's the same argument posted multiple times before and disproved each time. You've refuted nothing.
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Feb 2, 2019 07:08
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Pharohman777 posted:The most baffling thing is that maduro has explicitly given goverment positions, like running the psvda, to military generals. it's just pinochet in socialist clothing lol, right down to the privatization of state assets and the starvation of the poor being enforced at gunpoint but hey state assets are being sold to russia and china companies so at least that's different
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Feb 2, 2019 07:10
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Judakel posted:It owns that you think Venezuela is socialist. Do you think China is, too? China is socialist with successful characteristics
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Feb 2, 2019 07:13
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Ardennes posted:I believe Russia refused to take a haircut on their debt. Yeah there's a reason Russia and China have been demanding repayment in hard assets recently. There's a certain point after which no matter how strategically useful an ally in South America is for Russia and China, its not worth throwing good money after bad. Venezuela is well past that point.
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Feb 2, 2019 07:44
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Squalid posted:Yeah there's a reason Russia and China have been demanding repayment in hard assets recently. There's a certain point after which no matter how strategically useful an ally in South America is for Russia and China, its not worth throwing good money after bad. Venezuela is well past that point. Maduro admittedly probably does have more state assets to liquidate, the issue is how interested Russia and China are. Also, my point is Russia and China are likely to enforce the bonds under Maduro with the next government. There is an ultimate end to this obviously but that is point that Maduro has nothing left to hand over. I wonder how much the state museum collections are worth.
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Feb 2, 2019 08:38
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Pharohman777 posted:The most baffling thing is that maduro has explicitly given goverment positions, like running the psvda, to military generals. Pattern recognition from leftist posters in this thread doesn't go further than 'left wing good, right wing bad.'
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Feb 2, 2019 09:59
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Presenting Nipples posted:At this point this thread is mostly people stanning for Trump, there isn't point in debating people who only trust sources they agree with and dismisses any information they don't agree with as 'pro-Maduro'. A debate I'm sure you were very interested in given your zero posts in this thread before these recent events. We can all see that you people are thrilled that Donald Trump is doing this. It's a license to align yourselves rhetorically with Venezuela again, since it became gauche in the last few years. The moment things deflate you'll slink back out of here. Pedro De Heredia fucked around with this message at 10:13 on Feb 2, 2019 |
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Feb 2, 2019 10:03
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Ardennes posted:Maduro admittedly probably does have more state assets to liquidate, the issue is how interested Russia and China are. Also, my point is Russia and China are likely to enforce the bonds under Maduro with the next government. yeah if i was maduro i'd be pretty worried if anyone actually really gives a poo poo about me really doubt china does, unless they think they're going to get seriously shorted in the long run (this is by no means their only pot though, of course) russia maybe? for various reasons but maduro isn't chavez turkey may have some beneficial arrangements but i kind of doubt they thought this was forever
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Feb 2, 2019 10:55
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Are there *any* posters who support military action by the USA, by any other country or even by the opposition here? There is some vague hope the army stops backing Maduro, but not, I think, at the cost of open combat. I also don't think anyone here disagrees that Abrams and Bolton should be hanged for crimes against humanity. Personally I hope for a leftist government that respects human rights and actually takes care of Venezuelans food and medical needs. But Maduro has hosed things up so badly I also fear a right wing takeover is becoming almost a certainty. But apparently this makes me lust for a fascist military regime to sell off PDVSA and enslave the populace, to these tourist popup posters that keep appearing.
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Feb 2, 2019 11:40
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There are as many people openly advocating for war as there are stanning for Maduro - which is to say none Won't stop people from tearing down those strawmen though
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Feb 2, 2019 13:15
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If you're supporting the opposition you're supporting a blatantly obvious right wing coup so I don't know why anyone bothers trying to make a distinction. You could instead chime in with the reasonable position of "all these people are awful" and throw your hands in the air and accept the realities of hellworld instead of demanding (and denying) all this evidence rolling out that plainly shows Guaido's opposition movement is a blatant puppet with Uncle Sams hand firmly up it's rear end.
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Feb 2, 2019 13:18
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Please find some sort of supporting evidence for the “right wing coup” framing.
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Feb 2, 2019 13:42
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Discendo Vox posted:Please find some sort of supporting evidence for the “right wing coup” framing.  Located! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 2, 2019 13:51
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https://grayzoneproject.com/2019/01/29/the-making-of-juan-guaido-how-the-us-regime-change-laboratory-created-venezuelas-coup-leader/
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Feb 2, 2019 13:57
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Since the quality of English-language reporting around Venezuela is so poo poo, can we at least have some indicator that y'all have vetted your sources a little when you post?
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Feb 2, 2019 14:01
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