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Randarkman posted:That's kind of what most, or even all of us, who support the opposition and a change of government were saying was the preferred outcome and the one most likely to fell Maduro. Public support for the opposition is much greater than for the government at the moment, and really the PSUV is dependent on the military and the police to keep power, with pressure from the people in the form of demonstrations and now also foreign pressure in the form of harsher economic sanctions and international recognition of the current opposition leader as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, this may be enough to make the government's support from the security apparatus disappear. Chavez came to power by politicizing poor people. If the Opposition comes to power those same poor people are still going to push to defend there own interests, maybe even vote for candidates the Opposition won't like if there are elections. Maybe even organize against government policies they don't like. People like that would be pretty inconvenient for the Opposition. But like you said they are all gangsters and drug traffickers not people like you and me right? So what do you think happens to them?
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Feb 2, 2019 18:52
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Labradoodle posted:That's kind of impossible to gauge. The problem is, the military is what's keeping Maduro in power but at the same time, there's a lot of fear that soldiers might try to overthrow him because of how much discontent there is. In practice, that means that everyone needs to appear to support the government outwardly unless they want to be 'taken in for questioning' and have their families detained as well. I don't doubt there's significant discontent within the lower ranks of the military, but who knows how many of them really want Maduro gone? This is where the protests become important. Mobilize enough people and push on places like Miraflores and the opposition can force the security forces to pick sides. If the Maduro administration is really in trouble the first sign I'd expect to see is more videos of police backing down and withdrawing across Caracas. If the police refuse to control crowds, the government will have to turn to the army. That's a very dangerous situation both for protesters and the regime.Soldiers are not usually equipped with the less-lethal gear of riot police, which means when they face down mobs it is often with live ammo. If the soldiers start fraternizing with protesters and become mutinous, there would be nothing stopping the opposition from storming Miraflores and forcing Maduro to pull a Ceausescu.
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Feb 2, 2019 18:57
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axelord posted:Chavez came to power by politicizing poor people. If the Opposition comes to power those same poor people are still going to push to defend there own interests, maybe even vote for candidates the Opposition won't like if there are elections. Maybe even organize against government policies they don't like. People like that would be pretty inconvenient for the Opposition. He's referring to the colectivos, which Chavismo regularly uses (used?) to violently suppress protestors, not regular civilian supporters.
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Feb 2, 2019 18:59
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axelord posted:Chavez came to power by politicizing poor people. And hopefully Maduro is going to lose it by failing them and having pushed millions of more people into poverty. axelord posted:If the Opposition comes to power those same poor people are still going to push to defend there own interests, maybe even vote for candidates the Opposition won't like if there are elections. Maybe even organize against government policies they don't like. People like that would be pretty inconvenient for the Opposition. I said as far as I know alot of the collectivos, Chavista militias that is, are pretty much more in the business of being gangsters and drug traffickers these days than the militia part. If the government falls I would presume they just continue being gangsters, I doubt whatever government that comes next is going to find the one true cure for being a drug transit country. e: Also a much greater proportion of Venezueal's poor are opposed to Maduro and the PSUV than in support of them. IIRC many of these most recent demonstrations for the past couple of weeks started in what used to be Chavista strongholds, demographically speaking. e2: I would also assume that whatever new government were to come, if it comes, would probably be much more concerned with trying to retain the support of and meet some of the expectations of the millions of ordinary Venezuelans who protested against the PSUV regime than they would be with however many PSUV supporters might still remain outside the government itself and the military. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Feb 2, 2019 |
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Feb 2, 2019 19:00
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Munin posted:Even if the military want to ditch Maduro I am sure a significant number of them would prefer to go down the road of a military coup than let someone outside their institution take charge. Not necessarily. To pull it off they'd need both solidarity among the officers and enough backing from the population that they don't end up in the same situation 24 hours after the coup. Either with the rank and file refusing to follow orders against half a million people storming the government buildings or surrounded by the other half of the military who chose to back whatever figure has the most support/credibility. So long as there are powerful political figures around (or a popular cause) it's usually less risky to just stay out of it and play ball with the new government in exchange for amnesty.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:04
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Warbadger posted:Not necessarily. To pull it off they'd need both solidarity among the officers and enough backing from the population that they don't end up in the same situation 24 hours after the coup. Either with the rank and file refusing to follow orders against half a million people storming the government buildings or surrounded by the other half of the military who chose to back whatever figure has the most support/credibility. So long as there are powerful political figures around (or a popular cause) it's usually less risky to just stay out of it and play ball with the new government in exchange for amnesty. They are not in that good a situation right now but if another protest push fails and it descends back into a stalemate for another 6 months I could see a military coup succeeding. It would be poo poo like military coups the world over.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:09
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I would think (and I may be being too optimistic) that those in the military with the authority and support to actually pull off a military coup are also high up enough to know that there's no money left and won't be unless the US lifts its sanctions, which won't happen unless real elections happen. It seems like the recent announcement that nobody can do business with PDVSA in dollars has really brought things to a head.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:17
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dublish posted:I would think (and I may be being too optimistic) that those in the military with the authority and support to actually pull off a military coup are also high up enough to know that there's no money left and won't be unless the US lifts its sanctions, which won't happen unless real elections happen. It seems like the recent announcement that nobody can do business with PDVSA in dollars has really brought things to a head. Trump doesn't give a poo poo about elections and his administration was apparently trying to find officers willing to coup a little while back. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/08/world/americas/donald-trump-venezuela-military-coup.html The fact that Venezuela is a nearly fully looted basket case might be the better argument but see Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe. [edit] Basically, I really hope that the wave of protests does it this time.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:26
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PT6A posted:When the people of a country "coup themselves," we have a special word for it: democracy. lmao yes YES! that is indeed what the US calls democracy when they sponsor coups in countries they're threatening to invade looking forward to the new provisional government violently bringing all those criminals supporting PSUV to order. no doubt it will be done very democratically
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Feb 2, 2019 19:33
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Munin posted:Trump doesn't give a poo poo about elections and his administration was apparently trying to find officers willing to coup a little while back. Weren't those the guys who were looking for support and the US told them to gently caress off?
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Feb 2, 2019 19:34
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I've started to become more interested about the meta aspects of this whole situation, considering how much of a waste of time it is to attempt to educate those who do not want to be educated. It is incredible how strong echo chambers in social media have become, when it gets to the point of not recognizing obvious loving signs of Chavista corruption such as Odebretch and the numerous CADIVI controversies (Of which members of the opposition were also involved in, which is the whole loving reason why the "opposition" as a party is not as popular as just the idea of removing Maduro and seeing what happens), I just disengage. Denial of Maduro's role in the crisis is denial of reality, you can argue all you want about the extent of responsibility the US has in the crisis, to refuse to believe that a man who's getting fatter and fatter as his country starves is not guilty of at least some misconduct, is on par with Trump-stanning. There is a backlog of years worth of posts itt that document how things such as CADIVI, CLAP, expropriations and military control have all served as means to enrich an elite masquerading as champions of the people. There are numbers, names, articles, bank accounts, just look for it. The revolution that may have been underway with Chavez? It ended with Maduro. The poverty rate as of last year was 92%, youth unemployment is loving 23%; despite 63% of homes being involved in the CLAP scheme, 64% of those interviewed have lost 11kg on average. Only 29% say they have access to water every day, only 18% have uninterrupted access to electricity. How many of the loving millions pouring on foot into Colombia, Panama, Ecuador, Peru and Chile do you think are actually wealthy whites looking for sick owns on a dead comedy forum? How many of them you think like Maduro? The revolution, much like everything else Venezuela has, has been stolen. Whatever merit there was, it isn't there anymore. Maduro's regime is indistinguishable from a right wing dictatorship of the worst variety, militaristic, paranoid, elitist and with very little disregard for the troubles of the common people. There is nothing Venezuela stands to gain by keeping him, even for just one more day.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:35
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Kurnugia posted:lmao yes YES! that is indeed what the US calls democracy when they sponsor coups in countries they're threatening to invade The opposition, by way of the national assembly has already passed a law granting amnesty to anyone from the PSUV, military or the police who will support bringing down the PSUgovernment and facilitating new elections and resumption of democracy. The lollipop is going in your butt. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 2, 2019 19:36
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Kurnugia posted:lmao yes YES! that is indeed what the US calls democracy when they sponsor coups in countries they're threatening to invade "YES!", I shout, as I masturbate to millions of Venezuelan's starving. "My man Maduro will own these imperialist swine!" I moan as I imagine the members of the National Assembly being hounded through the streets by Collectivos.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:41
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The US is going to back political opposition which serves their geopolitical interests- which is the overthrow of the Venezuelan, Nicaraguan and Cuban governments. They will happily support a military dictatorship in Venezuela. The talk today reminds me more of what happened in Egypt where there was a big celebration about democracy which ended in a military dictatorship and mass murder of political elements which did not suite the US. Obviously there are major differences (the US doesn’t currently give billions to the Venezuelan Military) but I think people who blindly believe Trump is attempting to starve the population for regime change to restore democracy are foolish.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:45
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Randarkman posted:The opposition, by way of the national assembly has already passed a law granting amnesty to anyone from the PSUV, military or the police who will support bringing down the PSUgovernment and facilitating new elections and resumption of democracy. oh yes, which will no doubt be interpreted very democratically after the fact keep that image of my distending anus in your mind, i'll be coming back to your face with this later. after the coup. which will be very democratic (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 2, 2019 19:47
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dublish posted:Weren't those the guys who were looking for support and the US told them to gently caress off? "Told to gently caress off." is putting it strongly. It's more that they deemed him to be a fantasist with no plans or resources and hence not worth supporting. if López or a figurehead for him would make serious overtures I'm sure Trump would be willing to deal.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:48
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Kurnugia posted:lmao yes YES! that is indeed what the US calls democracy when they sponsor coups in countries they're threatening to invade You clearly don't care in the least about Venezuela except to use it as a prop to hit the USA with, so spare the thread your crocodile tears and breast-beating. Your hypocrisy is nauseating, you snivelling little poo poo. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 2, 2019 19:50
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Presenting Nipples posted:The US is going to back political opposition which serves their geopolitical interests- which is the overthrow of the Venezuelan, Nicaraguan and Cuban governments. They will happily support a military dictatorship in Venezuela. that's just what we call democracy around here. US backed military coups always end well for the people democratically calling for a coup in US media. because they'll democratically end up on the top afterwards
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Feb 2, 2019 19:50
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Rust Martialis posted:You clearly don't care in the least about Venezuela except to use it as a prop to hit the socialists with, so spare the thread your crocodile tears and breast-beating. Your hypocrisy is nauseating.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:51
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Presenting Nipples posted:The US is going to back political opposition which serves their geopolitical interests- which is the overthrow of the Venezuelan, Nicaraguan and Cuban governments. They will happily support a military dictatorship in Venezuela. There is a military dictatorship in Venezuela. There is a military dictatorship in Cuba. gently caress the military. They shouldn't be running anything.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:54
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Kurnugia posted:oh yes, which will no doubt be interpreted very democratically after the fact There's not really much of a way to interpret that law democratically or not, you either do the amnesty or you don't. Anyway, you aren't really worth listening or responding to.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:55
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Munin posted:"Told to gently caress off." is putting it strongly. It's more that they deemed him to be a fantasist with no plans or resources and hence not worth supporting. if López or a figurehead for him would make serious overtures I'm sure Trump would be willing to deal. Fair enough. I think "The Trump administration was looking for officers to support a coup" is a bit different than "Officers were lookiing for support for a coup from the Trump Administration" though.
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Feb 2, 2019 19:55
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fnox posted:The revolution, much like everything else Venezuela has, has been stolen. Whatever merit there was, it isn't there anymore. Maduro's regime is indistinguishable from a right wing dictatorship of the worst variety, militaristic, paranoid, elitist and with very little disregard for the troubles of the common people. There is nothing Venezuela stands to gain by keeping him, even for just one more day. which will be replaced by a democratically couped government of a far worse variety if the US gets its way. if you think that the Guaido coup would lead to a government that cares one bit for its citizens interest, i wanna know why. cuz there's quite a bit of material showing that every coup that US has ever backed ended up a violent oligarchic dictatorship
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Feb 2, 2019 19:57
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Kurnugia posted:which will be replaced by a democratically couped government of a far worse variety if the US gets its way. if you think that the Guaido coup would lead to a government that cares one bit for its citizens interest, i wanna know why. cuz there's quite a bit of material showing that every coup that US has ever backed ended up a violent oligarchic dictatorship Remember when the goddamn yanks installed De Gaulle in place of the proper Vichy government in France? Their lust for imperialist bloodshed never stops! I mean, I'm not going to defend every (or even any) lovely thing the US has ever done on its international adventures, but this situation is about restoring democracy against a military dictator who has usurped power, not some sort of goddamn coup.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:07
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fnox posted:There is a military dictatorship in Venezuela. There is a military dictatorship in Cuba. I am sure this reference to Cuba will improve the level of discourse in this thread.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:07
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If "socialism" means shooting protesters, looting the treasury and starving the poor, then I guess I'm against it. You aren't the first flavor of the week shitposter here, and sadly you won't be the last. You can maybe go read some of Chuck's posts as a primer on the situation over the last few years, or not. Or you can keep poo poo posting. Really nobody cares, you're not contributing anything anyhow.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:08
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Kurnugia posted:which will be replaced by a democratically couped government of a far worse variety if the US gets its way. if you think that the Guaido coup would lead to a government that cares one bit for its citizens interest, i wanna know why. cuz there's quite a bit of material showing that every coup that US has ever backed ended up a violent oligarchic dictatorship Any democratic government is better than a military dictatorship. As we've received absolutely no assistance whatsoever from enlightened individuals such as yourself, we're going with the only people who seem to give a poo poo about getting Maduro removed. If Guaido ends up being another violent oligarchic dictatorship (replacing the current one), we'll just get rid of him as well until someone stops loving up. Don't blame people for taking the one and only lifesaver we've been thrown in this entire crisis. I loving wish you would put this energy towards actually doing anything to help Venezuelans in crisis right now. Seriously, imagine if any of the people claiming there is economic war were doing loving ANYTHING to help Venezuelans in need. I would like to challenge the C-SPAM thread: Please, organize your own charitable action to help Venezuelans. I would like any of you to at the very least try to get food aid into Venezuela, see what happens. fnox fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Feb 2, 2019 |
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Feb 2, 2019 20:09
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https://twitter.com/AFPespanol/status/1091769174433640448 When people were asking for early elections in 2019, I don't think that's what they had in mind.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:17
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fnox posted:Any democratic government is better than a military dictatorship. As we've received absolutely no assistance whatsoever from enlightened individuals such as yourself, we're going with the only people who seem to give a poo poo about getting Maduro involved. If Guaido ends up being another violent oligarchic dictatorship, replacing the current one, we'll just get rid of him as well until someone stops loving up. no you won't, because the US is going to back Guaido militarily after he gets his provisional government up and running. same as they've done every other time a democratic coup they backed gets in trouble fnox posted:Don't blame people for taking the one and only lifesaver we've been thrown in this entire crisis. I loving wish you would put this energy towards actually doing anything to help Venezuelans in crisis right now. Seriously, imagine if any of the people claiming there is economic war were doing loving ANYTHING to help Venezuelans in need. I would like to challenge the C-SPAM thread: Please, organize your own charitable action to help Venezuelans. I would like any of you to at the very least try to get food aid into Venezuela, see what happens. oh yeah sure, it's true that i shouldn't be posting here at all, when i could be doing so much to help venezuelans from a closet in finland. i do admit it is hypocritical to point out what the usual results of a US backed coup have been, when i could be out there on the front line, helping venezuelans. from the other side of the world. i mean i just bought a piece of bread that i could've over there instead of deciding to buy some cheese as a celebration
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Feb 2, 2019 20:19
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fnox posted:Any democratic government is better than a military dictatorship. As we've received absolutely no assistance whatsoever from enlightened individuals such as yourself, we're going with the only people who seem to give a poo poo about getting Maduro removed. If Guaido ends up being another violent oligarchic dictatorship (replacing the current one), we'll just get rid of him as well until someone stops loving up. 
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Feb 2, 2019 20:19
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beer_war posted:https://twitter.com/AFPespanol/status/1091769174433640448 Look at that dictator dictating.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:20
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Kurnugia posted:oh yeah sure, it's true that i shouldn't be posting here at all, when i could be doing so much to help venezuelans from a closet in finland. i do admit it is hypocritical to point out what the usual results of a US backed coup have been, when i could be out there on the front line, helping venezuelans. from the other side of the world. i mean i just bought a piece of bread that i could've over there instead of deciding to buy some cheese as a celebration Are you absolutely loving making GBS threads me? You're in an extremely good position to help, you live in the first world. For you, as a Finn, 5 dollars is nothing, 5 dollars could feed dozens of people in Venezuela. This mentality is just insane, it means accepting that you're fine with not doing anything but whine. All I'm asking is that you try. I would seriously like one of you to try to organize getting food relief into the country. Why not? This is how you beat the US embargo, isn't it? Donate to Caritas today. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 2, 2019 20:35
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fnox posted:Are you absolutely loving making GBS threads me? You're in an extremely good position to help, you live in the first world. For you, as a Finn, 5 dollars is nothing, 5 dollars could feed dozens of people in Venezuela. This mentality is just insane, it means accepting that you're fine with not doing anything but whine. Go gently caress yourself, ghoul.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:36
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Kurnugia posted:which will be replaced by a democratically couped government of a far worse variety if the US gets its way. if you think that the Guaido coup would lead to a government that cares one bit for its citizens interest, i wanna know why. cuz there's quite a bit of material showing that every coup that US has ever backed ended up a violent oligarchic dictatorship My bolding. The interim goverment of Venezuela, represented by Juan Guaido, has drafted guidelines for recovery of the country's economy from the ruinious policies of the Maduro government. One of these guidelines and propsed laws would relenquish government control of illegally expropriated businesses within VZ, such as bakeries, dairies, and grocery stores. Acting together with renewed investment in infrastructure and a resumption of external trade, this may provide a path back to self-reliance as far as food is concerned. The coup government of Nicolas Maduro has, meanwhile, mostly refused to admit that any such problems exist, only pausing to blame external influence when they do. You do not know what you are talking about here. Join the discussion earnestly, there is plenty to learn.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:37
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not a cult posted:Go gently caress yourself, ghoul. Stop posting.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:39
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not a cult posted:Go gently caress yourself, ghoul. Find one group of Venezuelan expats near you (There is most likely one), talk to them. Engage with them, listen to their stories. Step out of your bubble, test what you believe in.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:40
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fnox posted:Are you absolutely loving making GBS threads me? You're in an extremely good position to help, you live in the first world. For you, as a Finn, 5 dollars is nothing, 5 dollars could feed dozens of people in Venezuela. This mentality is just insane, it means accepting that you're fine with not doing anything but whine. I literally just had to decide whther to spend that 5 euros on cheese or ham. i chose cheese btw. so yeah, 5 dollors is something to me you elitist loving moron and no, i will not be donating to a catholic church charity to prove myself to you. eat poo poo and die (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 2, 2019 20:41
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beer_war posted:https://twitter.com/AFPespanol/status/1091769174433640448  mission accomplished, venezuela is saved
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Feb 2, 2019 20:42
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madeintaipei posted:The coup government of Nicolas Maduro has, meanwhile, mostly refused to admit that any such problems exist, only pausing to blame external influence when they do. Maduro has repeatedly won democratic elections tho. he isn't the one doing the coup
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Feb 2, 2019 20:43
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Kurnugia posted:I literally just had to decide whther to spend that 5 euros on cheese or ham. i chose cheese btw. so yeah, 5 dollors is something to me you elitist loving moron But you had 5 dollars for an account on a dead comedy forum? 5 dollars for an avatar? Donate 2 then. Do something for a Venezuelan somewhere. Find someone who can help, and get them to help. Anybody. Hell, find someone in the forums who can help.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:44
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